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Rocket Lab USA, Inc.

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RKLB trade ideas

RKLB - Phase B Of An Accumulation?RKLB Had a big dump this week with the 1:1 Golden Window extension in Regular Trading Hours perfectly catching the low and this has only just exceeded the blue retracement GW. This is a great example of why it is important to use the 24 hour chart with Extended Trading Hours because outside of RTH RKLB dumped hard below the circled accumulative low. So this stab down went beyond the retracement low and a full retracement was completed. If you remember that a rule of the retracement GW is when it is significantly exceeded, then we can expect a full retracement. And so there is an interesting conundrum here because the full retracement already happened in one enormous stab down that then bounced outside of RTH. So its not entirely clear but this stab down will create inconsistency in liquidity and for that reason there is more chance that RKLB will explore down to the lows in RTH at some point. ... If we look at the way RKLB collapsed it was with high momentum and so this doesn't look like a retracement in a bullish trend. The initial move up did look bullish and appeared to show genuine growth rather than a sudden automatic rally short squeeze and that is positive but the momentum of this collapse entirely nullifies the uptrend. This suggests that we are beginning phase B of a Wyckoff accumulation where we've had a good pop showing some life signs but bearish momentum has taken over and this can potentially re-test the lows before the next bullish attempt. Now that RKLB has dumped, can you see how important that large bearish shakeout candle was that re-tested resistance? If you sold there as suggested before then you are doing very well now. What we are finding is that the size of the shakeout gives us a clue to determine how large the move will be in the opposite direction. Here we have a large shakeout candle and then a very large dump followed. As I have been saying, I'm very excited about this discovery because I have never seen this pattern addressed or understood in this way by anyone, not in any book or video, and it is a very lucrative realisation for both high and low time frame trading. In the last video we went through quite a few of these patterns that we have identified over the last few months and seen them play out so hopefully you are starting to have a grasp of how they work and how to identify them. Notice also there are are multiple of liquidity shakeouts at the top through resistance and also the 500 day MA. ... Ok so the large stab down and bounce on the 24H chart has printed a large wick which forms a strong bullish hammer candle and that is also a liquidity shakeout below the low which with liquidity tapped is also bullish because there is higher chance market movers will continue to move away from that liquidity pocket. And so there is a reasonable chance we will see a large bounce at some point soon. What I wrote doesn't prove we will see an immediate bounce and there could be some corrective price action first, but it signals that one is coming. Now looking to the RSI, it hit 20 and on the 4H and 1H chart it went below 20, so this also suggests a good bounce is in the pipeline. It may well be that the bounce has to tie in with indexes which are currently looking very bearish in the short term, but whenever they have a minor upside retracement then that can be the platform for RKLB to have a large but probably regressive (connective wave to go lower) bounce. So if you bought in the circled accumulation, that was a good buy and I would suggest that if you like RKLB and its a name you want to hold long term then you may decide to simply hold your position. That entry is right at the low for this area and there is a reasonable chance that will remain the value low area. This was previously our next buy area but due to downside momentum and bearish indexes it is a somewhat aggressive play to top up here for a long term hold. There is a chance that this is the value low right here, but I think there is at least equal chance that it will at some point down the road re-test the actual low. There is also opportunity for a somewhat aggressive short range swing trade here on the bounce. It is slightly dicey due to indexes looking bearish but looking at the chart alone it is on. So it could be worth buying a little here next week just for the bounce and we will look for a retracement ratio, MAs etc to sell in a little while. Also if you bought in the accumulation but its not ultra important for you to hold RKLB long term, you could partial sell on a bounce. For my preference if you have a long term view, to sell your entire position on a short term play is too aggressive but we all have to decide our personal level of aggression depending on our goals. If you want a simple life and you bought in the circled accumulation you may decide just to hold. That was a good entry. Be aware however that its not impossible that this whole area could end up being a connective wave to see another wave down. I think that considering how long RKLB has been in this area it is much more likely that this is part of an accumulation not a connective wave, but these high volatility names play deceptive games and conceal the sting in the tail so we should be aware that it could happen and not leave ourselves too exposed by having too much on the line. This chart is a great example of why it is important to stagger in to see how it develops and also it was a great example of how the shakeout pattern can show opportunity / danger. Not advice
NASDAQ:RKLB
by dRends35
2
ROCKET LAB Vastly oversold. Is it a buy?Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) has completed a sharp decline of -36.50% that hit the Higher Lows trend-line from the April 06 Low. By doing so the 1D RSI has turned vastly oversold at 16.00, the lowest it has been ever in its history. A Channel Down has emerged and technically this is a Lower Lows buy opportunity. As long as the Higher Lows trend-line holds, we will be bullish, targeting 5.25 (within the 0.5 - 0.382 Fibonacci range as in the previous Lower High). If the Higher Lows break, we will see and target the top of the 9-month Support Zone at 3.75. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:RKLBLong
by TradingShot
RKLB lost in the void. H&S played out. Target $4 to buy for LT.RKLB has a summer-bubble and was finally able to break and stay above ~$5.25/share. This bubble was unfortunately a head and shoulders, which, after today's failed launch, saw acceleration to the downside. Now we're solidly in the middle of what I hope is a new, large descending wedge. Hopefully we see bottoming out around $4/share or even $3.50/share again. To anyone who got in at the lows of the day ~$4.20/share, congrats on your quick win.
NASDAQ:RKLBLong
by HandsomeSloth
1
$RKLB - Stock under pressure on CEO selling sharesNASDAQ:RKLB NASDAQ:RKLB The news of the CEO selling 3.6 million shares broke the setup. The price broke below the anchored VWAP, POC line, and destroyed the MACD, RSI, and Williams R%. This is a reminder that technicals can easily be destroyed if there is an out-of-ordinary event. Here are the support levels to watch: - $5.40 - $4.94 - $4.68 I am hoping the bulls can regain control and push the price above $5.40 before the end of the day. Follow me for chart updates.
NASDAQ:RKLB
by PaperBozz
2
RKLB - Could Be A Pull BackThe best buys are often the second bite once we have seen the proof of the pudding. RKLB has printed a liquidity shakeout through resistance which could be a clue a significant top is arriving. If it could get back to the 200 day MA that could be a great entry. If you bought in the circled accumulation you could take some profit in this area depending on your level of aggression. Its not yet a confirmed top but I think considering indexes also there is a good chance this will have a significant slump. Higher time frame we are bullish RKLB and this will likely be umm rocketing up!
NASDAQ:RKLB
by dRends35
$RKLB Stratospheric Growth Ahead The space industry has been gaining momentum this year, with several space stocks appreciating in value. One of the most exciting space stocks in the market at the moment is Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (NASDAQ: RKLB) which is known for providing a wide range of services, chief of which is its launch services. With 6 successful launches in the first half of the year, more can be expected from the company as the management stated that it is still on track to reach 15 launches in 2023. This leaves 9 more launches this year, one of which occurred on July 18 when it launched 7 satellites for NASA, Space Flight Laboratory, and Spire Global. With the company forecasting an increase in its revenue per launch in Q2 2023, RKLB stock could be poised to run this year as a result of improved earnings – especially in the second half of the year. RKLB Fundamentals 2023 Outlook Through its Electron rocket, RKLB is dominating the small launch market thanks to its efficiency and success rate. With this in mind, the company has benefited greatly from the failures of other small launch companies – namely Virgin Orbital (OTC: VORBQ) which went bankrupt last April, and Astra Space, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTR) which is plagued with rocket failures. These factors actually led customers of other failing companies to redirect their orders to RKLB according to its Q1 earnings call which is a testament to its capabilities in the small launch scene. Currently, RKLB is operating at a cadence of 3 launches per quarter as it successfully had 6 launches in the first half of 2023. However, that number is set to increase in the second half of the year as the company reiterated its annual target of 15 launches. In this way, we can conclude that the company might have 4 launches in Q3 and 5 in Q4. Based on this, RKLB has the potential to see substantial growth in its revenues especially since the company expects its average revenues per launch to increase in Q2. In Q1 2023, the company realized $19.6 million in revenues from 3 launches which means that its average revenue per launch is around $6.5 million. The company expects this number to increase in Q2 as it is guiding $23 million in launch service revenue which means that the revenue per launch would be around $7.6 million. If RKLB is able to maintain its average revenue per launch at that level for the rest of the year, the company would be able to realize $30.6 million in revenues in Q3 and $38.3 million in Q4 based on our assumption of 4 launches in Q3 and 5 launches in Q4. This would allow RKLB to realize $111.5 million in annual revenues from its launch service segment only – representing an 83.6% increase YoY from $60.7 million in 2022. Launch Frequency Due to recent production developments and milestone achievements in regard to RKLB’s Electron rocket, the company may be poised to drastically increase its launch frequency soon. In the meantime, the company produces one Electron rocket every 18 days, indicating that it has the ability to supply itself with enough rockets in order to increase its launch frequency. Additionally, RKLB is attempting to make Electron the world’s first reusable small rocket. On that note, the company successfully recovered Electron’s first stage following its latest launch which would help the company reduce its costs per launch substantially if it is able to reuse the rocket in further missions. On that note, the company’s launch services segment has a negative gross margin of 3.8% and reusability would propel this segment’s gross margin into the positives. At the same time, the company appears to be capable of upscaling its launch schedule since it was able to execute 2 separate launches in a week. This is a very strong indication of the company’s upscaling potential since it is currently launching 3 rockets per quarter. Another factor that could contribute to RKLB increasing its launch schedule is the location of its two launch sites. One of the most common causes of launch post postponement is temperature. It became abundantly clear after the Challenger incident that cold temperature is not something to scoff at in regard to rocket launches which is why rockets rarely launch in cold temperatures. That said, RKLB is better at overcoming this hurdle than most due to the fact that it has a launch site in the US and another in New Zealand. This basically means that it has a site in each of the hemispheres indicating that RKLB is capable of shifting the launch schedules of its sites in order to avoid winter year around. Keeping these factors in mind, as well as RKLB’s goal of launching 30 rockets per year it becomes abundantly clear that the likelihood of the company increasing its launch frequency in the coming quarters is high. For that reason, RKLB stock might be a worthy long-term hold Neutron v. Falcon 9 Electron’s advantage lies in its fast production which allows for numerous launches, on the other hand, Neutron focuses on providing a much larger payload which is why RKLB is pricing its Neutron launches at around $50 million -$ 55 million. Given Neutron’s focus, it is clear that RKLB intends to make its new rocket a direct competitor to Space X’s Falcon 9 rocket. With that in mind, RKLB is taking a page out of Space X’s book as it intends to add a cost-per-kilogram option for satellites – effectively mirroring Space X’s cost-per-kilogram pricing policy. However, Neutron stands to have a significant pricing advantage over Falcon 9 since its launch price is much lower than Falcon 9’s $67 million per launch. Considering that Neutron is expected to enter the market in late 2024, RKLB could be poised for major financial growth starting 2025 and might even inch closer to profitability. The reason behind this is the expected revenues coming from Neutron’s launches. If RKLB is able to replicate Electron’s current launch cadence of 15 launches per year with Neutron, the company would generate $750 million annually at least from Neutron launches only. Moreover, Neutron could be extremely cost effective since RKLB intends to reuse Neutron boosters 10 to 20 times. Based on the expected revenue streams and these cost savings, RKLB becoming profitable in 2025 may not seem a far-fetched target. RKLB Financials Looking into RKLB’s Q1 2023 report, the company’s financial health stands out as it has $990.9 million in assets including $208.3 million in cash on hand as well as $190.3 million in marketable securities. At the same time, the company has $350.8 million in total liabilities – of which $197.2 million are current liabilities and $100.7 million in long-term debt. Given that the company’s cash balance and marketable securities dwarf its total liabilities, it appears to be in a very strong financial position. In terms of revenues, RKLB reported $54.8 million consisting of $19.6 million in launch services revenues and $35.2 million in space systems revenues. However, the most notable thing in the company’s balance sheet is its more efficient cost of revenue. In Q1 2022, the company reported a gross profit of $4.5 million from its space systems segment and this number improved in Q1 2023 to $7.1 million due to increased revenues and lower cost of revenues. This indicates that the company is running its space systems segment more efficiently which is a promising sign for the company’s future. At the same time, the company’s cost of revenue should decrease in the coming quarters as it successfully recovered the first stage of Electron following the latest launch to reuse it in future launches. Meanwhile, operating costs increased YoY from $36.5 million to $52.3 million mainly due to the increase in research and development costs from $13.4 million to $23.9 million. This increase in research and development costs is mainly the result of the company developing its Neutron rocket, Electron’s first stage recovery, Photon spacecraft features and capabilities, and expanding its portfolio of spacecraft components and subsystems. Despite this increase, the company expects research and development costs to decline as a percentage of revenue which could be due to better revenues in the coming quarters. However, as a result of the increase in operating costs, the company’s net loss widened YoY from $25.8 million to $45.6 million. Technical Analysis RKLB stock is currently in a bullish trend and is trading in an upwards channel that it recently broke out of. Looking at the indicators, the stock is trading above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which is a bullish indication. However, the RSI is overbought at 83 and the MACD is starting to curl bearishly. As for the fundamentals, RKLB stock is currently running due to the size of its latest mission as it launched 7 satellites. However, the stock’s value lies in the long term especially after the Neutron rocket is launched into the market. Given the expected revenue streams from Neutron alone, RKLB could be on the right track to reach profitability in the coming 2-3 years. With the RSI overbought and the stock yet to confirm breaking its upward channel, investors could wait for the stock to retest the upper trend line to confirm breaking the channel before taking long positions. RKLB Forecast With the company dominating the small launch market following the failures of its competitors, RKLB is well-positioned to grow its current launch cadence over the coming quarters. As we can expect 4 launches in Q3 and 5 launches in Q4 based on the company ensuring it is on track for 15 launches this year, its launch services revenue could be poised for a significant YoY increase this year given the higher revenues per launch. Although Electron has the potential to bring the company major success, Neutron remains its highest potential rocket thanks to its ability to rival Space X’s Falcon 9. Considering Neutron’s pricing advantage over Falcon 9, the company may be poised to gain a substantial share of that market once Neutron is launched in late 2024. Given Neutron’s potential to boost the company’s profitability prospects, RKLB stock could be a worthy long-term hold as more developments are unveiled.
NASDAQ:RKLB
by Penny_Stocks_Today
RKLB, Boosting Growth to Space! ↑↑↑RKLB has been gaining attention lately after Launching 7 Satellites that warranted its series of daily price rise. For this week alone (not yet done) the stock surged 27% already, and 40% for July alone. And it looks like the the stock's Growth journey to space is not yet over. Volume has surged by an impressive 131% this past few weeks from 5.7M to 13.22M -- conveying net buyer's weighty positioning of the company's prospective fundamental and technical growth. On our tri-monthly histogram, an apparent trend shift is happening suggesting the new current price range to be the base of the incoming series of ascend. We got 2 bubble up volume appearance on tri-monthly suggesting a firm support for price GROWTH. Expect significant ascend from the present price levels. Incoming earning calls on August are predicting a 17% increase in revenues. The should be another 'booster' event of its valuation. Spotted at 7.83 TAYOR. Safeguard capital always.
NASDAQ:RKLBLong
by JSAL
MACD + AO AnalysisIn early May the MACD line (white line) and signal line (blue line) are going to give a false-positive, which can be seen historically in this stock. This is confirmed by the direction of the Awesome Oscillator. This direction signals a short term bearish trend, but the stock is gearing up for a break out to somewhere around $5.40 in the next 2 months. Not a pro and this isn't advice, but it's what I'm following. The AO and MACD, when used in conjunction, are a phenomenal way to predict price movement. NASDAQ:RKLB
NASDAQ:RKLB
by ToiletOne
1