Short-Term Bond Yields are Setting up for a Major CorrectionThe SHY ETF is an ETF that holds 1–3 Year US Treasury Bonds and as the yields have gone up this bond ETF has declined. However, in recent times it would seem that this ETF is now trying to confirm a Double Bottom with the test of the 21-week SMA, if it holds we could go p to about $85 which would put a lot of downwards pressure on the bond yields which should align with a decline in the US Dollar and a rise in the Australian Dollar. I suspect the move will be fast and short-lived, but dramatic all the same.
SHY trade ideas
SHY/HYG - Daily, Inverted Candles, SPX overlay - Credit spread(4/10/2023) Monday - I wanted to publish this chart so we can follow the effect the credit spread had on the S&P 500 (SPX). As you can see the inverted candles correlate well with the SPX. Note the candles are inverted and the SPX is not, just to show better correlation. At the time of publishing there has been a significant move in credit that supports underlying conditions for the S&P 500. This is opposite what the FOMC is trying to accomplish as it causes more inflation.
With CPI coming out this week, Bank earnings start Thursday, and then the FOMC goes into blackout before the next Employment situation report for April. A lot can change. Being the last situation report was on Friday (US Markets closed observing Good Friday and Easter), Im not sure that report has been digested yet either.
On Mondays I post a market video and will include this link among the links to the yield curve inversions, and the IEF/LQD (Financial Conditions), unfolds. We can watch the bar replays. I added links to these charts below also.
long short term bonds bullish cypher forming elliott wave 4-5looking at short term bonds over the next 3-4yrs and take the monthly dividend. From the 4th Elliott wave to the 5th, then I'll likely convert over to the 20yr treasury in 2years to try to buy the D leg of the cypher pattern on the 20yr. see charts. In this chart, notice how the price action retrace back to the 3rd wave, this movement was a very big bearish cypher pattern... I'm a buyer of the dips
SHY shortterm bonds show divergence; FED may pivot end of Nov2 yr yield usually tops out 1.5 months before FED pivots. Right now shortterm bonds (inverse of yields)
are showing bullish divergence. Historically, this may predict that the FED may halt rate hikes or become less aggressive sometime this coming November. This will be very bullish for bonds & growth stocks.
Note that as of today, the 10-yr yield is still rising.
Not trading advice
SHY - Lock 2Year Bill YieldSeems no one wants to discuss the Short End of the Bond Curve.
After performing a 30 Bip Sequence, the Big Move to Consolidation - the Monthly Chart
illustrates how NQ Elevator Up can resolve.
The Fed Fund Futures were dragged into 2022 for 2/2 Indicated @ 72%.
007s on the Short End, believe it's all good, these will backfill and we'll rally
30 more Bips to Our Favor.
Not going to happen, period.
Tech, of course, has shrugged off the impending moves by the Federal Preserve.
Moving Vertically to mimic the Denials.
Made Money is not just to entertain you, but to make you Mad Money.
Amazon, Apple, and Starbucks are a "Buy the Dip" - too Big to fail - according
to Guyana Punch Distributor Jimmy Jones Crammer.
Few appear to remember how Jimmy ended up on CNBC. After losing $220+
Millon in his Tech Fund, but shining it on... he demonstrated he could indeed
sell firecrackers for Valentine's day. A huckster of talent, but a shylock nonetheless.
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Here's the real Issue with BUy Side Carnies, what they won't, don't, and will never
tell the Hoi Polloi.
Short Squeezes create ILL-LIQUIDITY.
The Hole in the ground has to fill before the Price can move higher.
"Record Highs, for 5 days we are making new Highs"
One Problem - Breadth, namely the Markets, although I'd venture to guess
this Particular MEdia Outlet needs to have its mouth washed out with Lye.
Stocks can be going up, although Short Covering removes Capital from the
Markets. It never increases Liquidity, not ever. It persistently reduces it.
Selling stops, the first sign.
Buy to Close is most often performed on an uptick as Stops are run by FORCE.
New HIgh after New HIgh, unfortunately, Equities below their 50SMAs far exceed
those above.
As Market Breadth declines - higher weightings are always used. Apple a prime
example.
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Stagflation assisted by $120 - $150 Billion per month, eases the burden of 14.77%
REAL INTEREST RATES.
Ease up on Bond Purchases... the Burden takes hold.
Retail is calling a Bluff...
$30 Trillion in Fiscal Debt is dead ahead, unfortunately again... Ramping up the
Inflation to drive the DX lower... Yeah, naw, that effort is failing.
US dollar - US Treasuries Divergence The US dollar correlates positively to US Treasuries.
Market participants needs US dollar when buying US Treasuries as investments or as collateral.
Now we see a pretty sharp diverence and break of that correlation.
One would anticiapte a return to mean of this relationship.
My base-case is that the dollar will follow bonds and get bid up.
In short, my reasoning is as follows:
If liquidity continues to be tight, as low interest rates and central banks going crazy are signaling, the dollar will catch a bid as it's still the world reserve currency.
Regardless of my bias: when macro correlations diverge, its time to pay attention.
Short the near term bondIf anything a short sell would have been optimal on the corner as price action may move lower as this price action appears peaked. An entry point at the next upper median line would offer good risk return because a buy stop would have structure behind the proposed entry with significant return opportunities. This would mean that short term interest rates would rise and result in a pressure on the economy for this trade to work.
Credit spreads are flashing red!!Hi guys,
Credit spreads are bouncing off trendline and spx is breaking trendline. Charts are turning bearish and we may be in for a meaningful correction.
'll post detailed charts this weekend on my blog as it is much easier for me: chartsonmac.wordpress.com.
Just wanted to share.
Thanks