We Think $SIRI Has Some Sirius PotentialHonestly, I didn't even know Sirius XM was a publicly traded company until 6 months ago. Mainly because it's under $5, and I generally tend to avoid such stocks after getting burned in the penny stock world so many years ago. But SIRI is an interesting ticker, and one we recently acquired quite a sum of shares in for the long run, and by long run, I mean retirement.
We bought for multiple reasons, none of which revolve around Warren Buffet's company Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A/B) increased stake in the company; although that can be a nice boost.
First, the company declared a quarterly dividend of $.01/share (.04/share/year). Granted, this is not a lucrative dividend amount by a long-shot, but it is one indicator of a fundamental shift in the company's long-term outlook to their business success. In essence, I like to see a company project confidence in their model by thereby rewarding their shareholders, even if it's a little. Oh, and that doesn't mean it won't grow in the future either.
Second it's maintained a nice technical uptrend, so we're at least going to ride it for a bit of the long haul. We've had two entries hit since the stock really started running.
Third, we don't like to speculate on the future of a company's capabilities or markets, but due to our knowledge of satellites, I find it interesting that SIRI is named as a potential contender in the "Connected Car". The possibilities of Sirius's S-band downlink being used as a secondary or tertiary backup link, or a data stream to the cars' ability to predict traffic and best routes possibly could be a market entry when the self-driving car technology gains a foothold. This would allow for contractual growth and a steadily grown curve of revenue.
For just a minute though, let's get a little crazier and speculate a little bit. Another interesting concept is Sirius' versatility and the company's placement's potential for scale. In reality, Sirius is a Satellite communications provider; it's just a one-way transmission to your car radio. But here's food for thought: satellite phone communications. At the moment, most sat phones are not even worth the average consumer buying due to the high cost of operation ($6/minute) and the infeasibility of carrying a brief case that holds the equipment. But when we looked at SIRI, we look at how other companies might be looking to scale, and how SIRI might do the same. We personally think that there's only so many cell towers one can build, and they only provide coverage in a certain area. Furthermore, the current satellite phone providers such as Iridium, Globalstar, and INMARSAT have a huge cost, and rightly so due to the amount of satellites they've put in orbit to maintain their service provision. But I think Sirius is a well-known consumer brand. Seriously. Ask any person on the street what it is and they'll likely tell you it's a satellite radio. Now tell that same person that Sirius is providing phone services to their iPhone/Android/Pixel. They probably wouldn't be very surprised would they? But how would SIRI do it? Possibly through a joint venture with a company like Google or Android since Apple is a competitor in the online music streaming business. If Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) were to come in, design a proprietary receiver/transmitter into the phone it'd be a win-win for both companies. Also, SIRI would be that service provider undercutting the competition SATCOM providers as well as terrestrial providers like Verizon (NYSE:VZ), T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) and AT&T (NYSE:T). Thus, Sirius would have then successfully expanded and would gain an insurmountable competitive advantage.
The transmission architecture could possibly be supported both through uplink communications to a leased COMSAT (cheaper than building a new one) or through the joint venture to build an entire new constellation. Not to mention, Sirius already has a terrestrial repeater network for their radio services (much like cell towers), and this could have a
SIRI trade ideas
Long SIRI if reaches $4.30 level. 35% upside potentialThis is such a dramatic stock.
Stock price drop from $69 to less than 10 cents. Anyway, who have dared to pick up this stock after 2008 crisis will have turned there investment into 100 times gain. That is the excitement part of stock investment...
Anyway, this stock has formed a nicely upward trend since then. Tested the trend line twice. If it break through the previous structure of $4.3, it will be a nice long till $5.80. Looking forward to it.
Simple Trading Techniques – Bullish Strategy
Go long the SIRI if it trades at 4 or higher. If triggered, place your stop at 3.85 and exit the position for a profit at 4.03 or at your own discretion. (Signals are valid for today only. Always invest wisely).
Learn the rules of a strategy at: www.udemy.com
SIRI Buy Option SIRI has had a rather stable support line at 3.63 but when it was violated, market tumbled down till 3.30.
This has created an over-sold market with a trend in an upward direction. Past support has now become resistance at 3.63. This is a very important line taking into account past structures: market is giving us signals.
Therefore, taking into account the power of the resistance line and all three strength indicators, one should short SIRIUS XM HLDGS INC. We have entered an over-bought market and hit a strong resistance line, all implying a decrease in the price.
SIRIUS/XM Holdings, reasons to get short....
FUNDAMENTALS
Arguably, satellite radio will be a phased out technology in the coming years. What the blackberry has been to communication devices, satellite radio will soon find itself in the dustbin of consumer products. Ever wonder why the SEC had such little problem with the Sirius/XM merger in the first place? The marriage of these two companies was figuratively monopolistic in the sense that they are the only game in town when it comes to SATELLITE RADIO, but there are so many other products it has it contend with.... It has to withstand a withering barrage against other products and services, such as youtube with bluetooth smartphone technology, Pandora, and the like. Fewer and fewer vehicle manufacturers are offering that new Sirius/XM radio pre-installed as you roll off the lot. Moreover, more consumers will not go through the headache of buying, installing, and subscribing to the service when these items simply aren't already in the car. I'm also confident that many without a vehicle are simply disinterested in buying their portable devices. Simply put, it's worn off.
But.... what's propping up this company for so long? Enter the Howard Stern Show. Mr. Stern himself has been pulling further back and trying to market himself as a more family friendly person/elder statesman of radio. Case in point, the scaling back of 5 days of shows a week to 3 days a week, the elimination of his news department, and his involvement in the mainstream primetime show, "America's Got Talent.". Many hardcore Stern fans that have been with him since his peak in the 1990s have noticed a shift in his personality and show format that they find wholly unappealing, and has led to an online firestorm following an extended segment where he tried to adopt kittens out live on the air.
What's more is that Stern's contract is up this month. Even with a renewal of Mr. Stern's contract for a few more years, his dwindling involvement even as his potential employment continues will not signal any kind of surge in this stock's price. We see price approaching a resistance level around the $4.16 area, a place it has not traveled to since of October of 2013, but more on the technicals later. Point is, even a Stern re-sign isn't going to help the stock's price bust through this level.
I assert that the Stern Show is the only thing propping up this company. But as Mr. Stern makes awkward attempts to re-brand himself incongruent with his overall image, together with his dwindling involvement and resources devoted to his show, he continues to alienate even the most die-hard fans that support Sirius XM. The technology that competes with Sirius XM is becoming more lean and abundant and the show can only keep this company on life support for so long.....time to short. Long term, this stock WILL tank.
I invite anyone working for the Stern organization or Sirius/XM to contact me personally to help consult on how to right the ship here so their stock price's decline will not be as calamitous.
TECHNICALS
As previously mentioned, we are approaching a resistance level around the $4.16 level, a place that price action hasn't traveled to since October of 2013. Long term, this stock WILL tank, .For our swing trading friends, we see two opportunities associated with this resistance level. There is a Cypher pattern nearing completion there (red) and a bearish Gartley pattern starting to form in the vicinity. The fall of the price will not be without retracements, as evidenced by the bullish Cypher pattern that is out on the daily. The bearish advanced patterns mentioned here are a great way to get in on the short, but just be aware that this stock's price has been banging around a channel between $3.98 and $4.16.
Is Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) The Death of SIRI?When looking at the chart of Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI), it is not hard to predict who will win this war of becoming the preferred software and music service in everyone's cars. Yes, you guessed right; without a doubt, it will be Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL). After all, the iPhone is one of the most popular devices among smartphone users. Also, most high and medium priced vehicles come with adapters specially designed for the iPhone already. Did I forget to mention that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has a free streaming music service? Why will users continue to pay a monthly fee for a service that will be free for many with the CarPlay integration?
As a technical trader I don't really care about the news. Instead, I utilize the stock technicians crystal ball (Charts) to see the future ahead of everyone else. Take a look at the chart above. It is the weekly chart for Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI). Note how it made a high of $4.18 during 2013, putting a classic topping pattern in place. Since then, the stock has been drifting lower. It is now consolidating in a bearish manner, and within the next couple of weeks I expect it to break down. Could more news of CarPlay be the catalyst for the decline? I'm not sure, all I know is that the chart is giving us a peek into the future of Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) and it does not look bright. The levels to watch as it falls will be; $2.72 and $2.37 At those levels SIRI might get a few resuscitation attempts, however, once those levels break, it will go a lot lower.
Please feel free to leave your comments below and let me know what you think will be the catalyst for the death of Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI).
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Kiliam Lopez
Elite Round Table, Pro Trader
www.inthemoneystocks.com
Potential Short in Siri (Look at Pandora as Well)Siri has just lost a key level on strong volume today representing the 200 day moving average and a huge uptrend, siri has also closed outside the bollinger band with RSI dipping and the MACD curling to the downside, watch this closely this week to see if a bounce takes place, if not and this keeps closing below the 200 day then short at will with a stop at the 200 day which will become resistance