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SMCI trade ideas

Possible Butterfly Bull Trap in SMCI The classic bull trap pattern comes when we have an initial sell off. Some sort of retracement of that and then a failure to make a new high forming a capitulation pattern. Everyone knows this pattern, it's the classic "Return to Normal" in the bubble template. However, we also have modified versions of bull traps that make new highs. While this seems paradoxical, what better place is there to trap bulls than ATH? When this patterns forms it's most often expressed as a butterfly top. There's the initial drop. A false continuation of the classic bull trap and then a spike high. This forms a "W" pattern with the spike high usually ending in the 1.61 - 2.20 zone. This is something we commonly find at the end of big uptrends. Read more about uptrend and reversal formation here:
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by holeyprofit
1
SMCI completes all stages of Minsky model. What's next for AI?Over the last couple years SMCI has done a speed run through all the phases of the Minsky model. Ending with a near perfect expression of all stage. Let's go through the steps one by one; First - the macro trend was starting to run out of steam when we tagged the 4.23 (As so often happens). Next we had the classic fake crash and then final spike out, characteristic of bubbles. Then we had the tell tale W butterfly top. And then it was just a matter of time. === Classic. By the boom stuff. So, where does that leave us now? As someone who likes trading reversals best, this gives me one main thought. One of three things should be true. SMCI is a long. NVDA is a short. SCMI and NVDA due to fundamentals will diverge massively from each other. I'm a TA trader, so I just discount the third option as an occupational hazard. I do not know nor care enough about the fundies of either of these. If the fundies overrule my TA thesis, I'll just hit a stop. Wait a while. Then make a new decision. My goal in trading isn't to always be right or make my money off one wonder trade. The whole goal for me is over my trading lifetime to lose about 50% of my trades. Win about 50% of them. Average about $3 per $1 lost. I pre-accepted a long time ago I'd lose half my trades, what order they come in or why does not matter. They're all part of the plan. So ... that brings us down to the decision, is it fade the NVDA bull or buy the SMCI knife? There's some nuances to this. For one, SMCI has complete the low hanging fruit rally. We have a quite simple method for this. If and when the low of the parabolic phase is spiked out, this is when we usually see reversion to the trendline. Here's the setup in CVNA. Using the same rational as used for the CVNA low call, it was easy enough to see the potential for a low being made in SMCI. Here's a real time mention of the SMCI knife catch at the low. The dilemma here is this is the easy target for the long. Can run more, 100% bounce to the trendline was the low hanging fruit. But CVNA is now over 100% higher than the same level. SMCI could have a lot more to run in theory but I find it hard to be bullish here because we're, literally, at my bull target level. I did the SMCI knife catch thing. It went well. Now we're at resistance. It might run more, but it feels more like chasing to me. So to the next question. Does NVDA happen to look anything like SMCI did at the high? Yup ... If the Minsky model is again in play here, we're be somewhere close to the optimal shorting levels. === Did SMCI lead NVDA? One would think at this point we can't be more than 18 months away from knowing. If the AI bubble is going to fully pop, it'd seem it has to be at or close to full maturity now.
NASDAQ:SMCI
by holeyprofit
3
Bullish for Dec 7th!!Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) has recently cleared fraud allegations through an independent probe, leading to a significant stock surge. However, with 15.67% of its shares shorted and a short interest ratio of 1.0 days, the stock remains volatile. Key catalysts that could force shorts to cover include the approval of SMCI’s compliance plan by Nasdaq, following its recent appointment of BDO USA as auditor to resolve financial reporting issues, and its participation in investor events like the Barclays Global Tech Conference on December 7, 2024. These developments, combined with heightened investor interest and potential short squeeze dynamics, suggest a highly volatile near-term outlook.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by justin_p_mcfarland
2
Intermezzo - the show will continue - however tomorrow is Fridayand Fridays is when the market makers pay, generally they don't pay too far from the mean and this puppy went up 100% in no time.... I think we get back to $31.oo and change before the next move, and this $31 likely by the end of Friday. Again you do your own calculations. never ever rely of others to tell you where things are. Remember opinions are like dog tails we all have one, everyone chases them and they all schtinkkkzzzz
NASDAQ:SMCI
by imcnf5c4ff
1
Analyzing SMCI's Potential RecoveryCapitulation and Recovery: Capitulation: A period of intense selling pressure that often marks the bottom of a downtrend. Post-Capitulation Recovery: After a capitulation event, the stock may experience a relief rally as short-sellers cover their positions and long-term investors start accumulating. Factors Affecting SMCI's Recovery: Fundamental Factors: Earnings Reports: Strong earnings reports can boost investor confidence and drive the stock price higher. Revenue Growth: Continued revenue growth, especially in the AI and data center segments, is crucial. Technological Innovations: SMCI's ability to innovate and introduce new products can influence investor sentiment. Market Sentiment: Overall market conditions, especially the tech sector, can impact SMCI's performance. Cautions and Considerations: Market Volatility: The stock market is inherently volatile, and SMCI is no exception. Price fluctuations can be significant, especially in the short term. Risk Management: Always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by ParabolicP
SMCI, the worst is likely behind usSMCI has crashed from this years highs, a good 80%. To me it sounds like the worst has happened. And while we may see some positivity this EOY that can help us reach new ATHs, we must remain aware of the risk the broad economy poses. Target is 130+ short term, with one more 50%+ drop coming right after. I would make sure I have the funds ready to scoop up shares if such a scenario happens. As the second dip doesn't look as bad as the first one. After that SMCI will resume its lifetime bullish climb, and keep on going for as long as the bull market lasts.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by Ilyassou
SMCI to $60? When?!?In this video, I use the Magic Linear Regression Channel , Multi VWAP , and Magic Order Blocks indicators to build a case for a $60 SMCI target. In short, it might be a few months away. Using a linear regression channel starting on May 8th, 2024, and ending October 29th, 2024, we can see that the channel is respected at multiple levels. In today's trading, we see a rejection from the Inner Fibonacci Level - Upper in the Magic Linear Regression Channel tool. I was expecting this a few days ago based on the projected channel. With the Multi VWAP indicator we see that the price is currently above the 5-Day anchored VWAP (AVWAP). It can potentially continue to hold that and go through some consolidation before heading back to the top of the channel. At which point, it could reject or consolidate more. I suspect that with the accounting issues behind them, SMCI price will continue to recover. However, above the upper channel lies the year-to-date anchored VWAP, which should be at around $60 by the time SMCI can get there. This will be a level of interest. On the daily chart, we see that the 5D AVWAP gets respected with a bottom wick on the 15min chart that tags it almost perfectly at around $39. We also see an order block acting at support at that same level using the Magic Order Blocks indicator. That gives us further evidence that we could potentially have the 5D AVWAP holding price up as support during a period of consolidation. Should SMCI continue its bullish momentum, there are two potential areas of consolidation - if not outright rejections - at the Inner Fibonacci Upper level and at the upper linear regression band. If it makes it through, the next target will be the YTD AVWAP.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by mwrightinc
6
SMCI Ankle BrakerSMCI made incredible bearish move due to all recent news in regards company financial. Company will be reporting soon. I am short term bullish for a gap closure which will be made before reports in order to pump prices before "Breaking Ankles" to the downside. I am watching for a possible move up to the $46.85 to quickly sell of down to the previous FVP. Once it hits level and depending on reports company might once again slowly run up like Walgreens did.
NASDAQ:SMCI
by soymundo21
1
SMCI This is why investors should always keep a clear mindset.It was only a month ago (November 07, see chart below) when we gave a very strong long-term buy signal on Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI), in the midst of a price collapse following the resignation of their auditor (Ernst & Young) and compliance delays with stock index requirements: Putting the fundamentals aside, we made this bold call by purely looking at the technicals, which in turbulent times like these (market fear on news) tend to deliver a clearer and more objective picture. The price had just hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), for the first time in 4 years (since October 26 2020), while reaching Fibonacci level 1.0, which was the former top of the Channel Up for 4 years until it broke and the stock turned parabolic from January 2023 to March 2024. At the same time, the 1W RSI touched the oversold barrier (30.00) for the first time since March 16 2020 and second since October 01 2018, which was the start of the Fibonacci Channel. As a result, that gave us a very strong buy signal combo, which as you saw was immediately translated into a price rebound. Less than a month after, the stock is about to close the gap of the October 28 2024 1W candle, which was the week of the Ernst & Young collapse. This amount of buying pressure indicates that there were a lot of long-term buyers waiting on the buy zone we identified and assuming SMCI continues to restore faith in their reported accounting practices, are looking for a new multi-year rally. Our $122.50 Target remains intact for Q3 2025, which is basically the stock's All Time High (ATH). Technically there is room for a 2025 extension within the 3.5 - 4.0 Fibonacci Zone. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by TradingShot
6
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Shares Surge Nearly 30%Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Shares Surge Nearly 30% Yesterday, the S&P 500 (tracked as US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) hit another record high for the year, with Super Micro Computer (SMCI) leading the charge. SMCI shares soared by 28.50% during the session. SMCI has been highly volatile this year. In the first 2.5 months, its stock price skyrocketed over 300%, breaking the psychological $100-per-share mark, fueled by the AI boom. However, this rally was followed by a period of consolidation and then a sharp downtrend, partly driven by accounting concerns. According to Investing, the company failed to file its 10-K form for the fiscal year 2024 due to accounting issues, leading Nasdaq to threaten delisting. Meanwhile, Ernst & Young (EY), the company’s auditor, announced it was unwilling to associate itself with the financial statements prepared by Super Micro Computer’s management. As a result, SMCI shares dropped below $20 earlier this month. Fortunately for shareholders, it was revealed yesterday that: → No errors were found in Super Micro Computer's financial reports. → The company will not need to amend its previously filed reports. → The CFO will be replaced. These developments sparked bullish momentum, propelling the stock from Friday’s closing price of $32.50 to yesterday’s close of $41.91. Technical Analysis of SMCI Shares Since 2022, the stock's wide price swings have formed an ascending channel (marked in blue). Key observations include: → The consolidation from late August to late November suggests the median of this channel is an equilibrium zone for supply and demand. → A mid-November bounce off the channel’s lower boundary (indicated by an arrow). Will SMCI Continue Its Rally? This week’s strong momentum may sustain further gains, potentially enabling bulls to break above the resistance line (uppermost of the three red lines) and push towards the median of the blue channel before the holiday season begins. According to TipRanks: → Only 2 of 9 analysts recommend buying SMCI shares. → The average 12-month price target for SMCI is $38. However, these forecasts may be revised upwards in light of the latest positive news. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:SMCI
by FXOpen
1
$ SMCI Target $ 65.0 Technical and Fundamental AnalysisAfter-hours price : Current: $ 29.50 Technical Analysis • Key Levels: Crossing and holding above $28 on a weekly close could act as a launchpad for targets of $35 and $42. The bullish trajectory depends on maintaining this support level. Future Price Targets • If BDO, SMCI's new auditor, resolves accounting issues without regulatory challenges, the company could aim for a long-term price target of $65. This would rely on continued growth in AI-driven hardware markets and restored investor confidence Fundamental Analysis • Revenue and Earnings Growth: SMCI's revenue grew significantly in recent quarters, driven by demand in AI and data center markets. Forward EPS growth projections for the next two years are 41.3% • Valuation Metrics: SMCI's forward P/E ratio of 5.43 and a PEG ratio of 0.15 highlight a strong value-growth balance • Margins: Over the last ten quarters, SMCI has shown gross margins averaging around 15.97%, with operating margins of 9.72% and net profit margins of 8.88%. These metrics indicate stable profitability but room for improvement in operational efficiency . Summary SMCI's technical breakout above $28 could unlock medium-term targets of $35 and $42, with the potential for $65 long-term if its operational and accounting challenges are addressed. Monitoring its new auditor’s progress and market developments in AI hardware will be crucial. *Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.*
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by RNB98
2
Long to $65SMCI has been extremely volatile lately, which is great for options sellers. Recent news suggests no financial improprieties occurred and the company is searching for a new Chief Financial Officer. Also, the stock recently completed a 10/1 split. Nevertheless, here are the weekly technicals: Bullish RSI (recently recovered from being oversold) Bullish BAT harmonic pattern with a $64 target Latest Heikin Ashi candles have no bottom tails, indicating a strong upside trend Happy Trading!
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by chiefwils0n
5
SMCI: Watch for Breakout Opportunities Next WeekRecent Performance: SMCI has recently experienced fluctuations largely driven by broader market trends and news regarding its auditing issues. Currently priced at $32.64, the stock's movements have been tied to investor sentiment in light of corporate developments with Netflix and scrutiny over its audits. - Key Insights: Investors should closely monitor SMCI’s performance in the coming week, with a crucial focus on resistance levels that could signal upward movement. If the auditing concerns are resolved favorably, this could spark a breakout leading to significant gains. Conversely, maintaining above the identified support levels will be vital for sustaining confidence among investors. - Expert Analysis: Experts have expressed a cautious outlook for SMCI, highlighting the potential for instability due to ongoing auditor challenges. However, if the issues are addressed successfully, the stock might reach new highs, creating a favorable scenario for growth. The sentiment suggests a high interest in how SMCI responds to its current hurdles. - Sentiment Analysis: Current sentiment: 45.0 Last week: -11.67 Change: 56.67 Total mentions: 4 - Price Targets: Based on professional traders' wisdom: Next week targets: T1 = $34, T2 = $36 Stop levels: S1 = $31, S2 = $30 - News Impact: The ongoing auditor issues remain a pressing concern for SMCI, potentially impacting investor sentiment and stock performance substantially. Additionally, association with Netflix amplifies the influences of broader market narratives, indicating that external factors will also affect SMCI’s trajectory in the near term.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by CrowdWisdomTrading