SMCI I want to see SMCI hold the bottom box and pump to the top box. A short trade in the box would be valid as well. If we gain and hold the top box, we could expect all time highs.
SMCI trade ideas
SMCI. Looking for longs.Looking for longs if we come down a little more. Profit at first and second resistance and hold a little for potential all time highs.
SMCI: Continuity of the uptrendOn SMCI we have a continuation of the upward trend after the break of the resistance line by buyers over a 15-minute time unit.
SMCI’s Game-Changing Move: Could This Be a 500% Opportunity? Bullish Analysis for Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)
1. Valuation Metrics
P/S Ratio: Previously 7.46, now just 1.43, showcasing significant undervaluation compared to historical levels.
P/E Ratio: Previously 90, now 16.67, making the stock much more attractive to value-focused investors.
Fair Value Estimate: According to Simply Wall Street , the fair value per share is estimated at $439.38 , suggesting substantial upside from the current price levels.
2. Strong Financial Metrics
Current Market Cap: $18.87 billion.
Revenue: This year's revenue is $14.94 billion, and 2025 revenue is expected to exceed $23 billion, surpassing the current market cap—a promising signal of growth potential.
Financial Health: SMCI can cover all its debt twice over , with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.40 , which sits comfortably in the ideal range of 0.30–0.60.
3. Growth Drivers
New Manufacturing Facility: A facility in Malaysia is expected to become operational in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, enabling SMCI to scale up its AI server production.
Liquid Cooling Expertise: SMCI specializes in liquid cooling technology , critical for the new generation of powerful chips and data centers, including Nvidia’s Blackwell GPUs , which are experiencing record demand as Nvidia ramps up production.
4. Technical and Price Action
Support Levels: SMCI has established strong support at $30.
Trend Reversal: The stock has broken the structure of its downtrend and is now showing clear signs of heading to the upside, further reinforcing bullish momentum.
Resistance Levels: Potential price targets based on resistance areas:
Target 1: $50 (52.4% increase).
Target 2: $70 (113.4% increase).
Target 3: $100 (204.8% increase).
Target 4: $120 (265.8% increase).
Long-term Target: $200+ (509.75% increase).
5. AI Market Leadership
SMCI’s continued focus on AI servers positions it as a key beneficiary in the rapidly growing AI-driven computing market.
Conclusion
With its attractive valuation, robust financial health, strategic expansion plans, and leadership in liquid cooling and AI servers, SMCI is well-positioned for substantial growth. The recent trend reversal adds technical confirmation to the fundamental bullish case, making current price levels a compelling opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the AI and data center markets.
Which Pull back if any?Is SMCI going to consolidate now or tap into 64.33 key level and then go touch the FVG? Even though we had bullish momentum candle that broke the 50.51 resistance recently, and a bullish MACD(Chris Moody); the Stoch RSI and the RSI and CCI are overbought. Should we wait for a retest of the 50.51 resistance or a pull back to the FVG? What do you all think?
SMCI - Sh!tty I know but is it good Sh!t now?Technically looking solid.. but back of the mind has that fear, what if mgmnt messes up with the 10k filing etc.
Anyways.. I've a long position from post earnings.
Long anywhere here
Target 1 - 52
Target 2 - 68
Target 3 - 80
Buy SMCIBad news usually translates to great buying opportunities and that's what happened for SMCI. Simplified this impulse wave to an ABC to show longterm trend. Feeling like a safe long (buy and hold) for those trying to get in on a fairly priced stock in a great sector.
The Reactive on SMCI has completed The stock is ready for a massive thrust UP to $129 or more....
Why is this. Well SMCI filed the 8K Report on December 2nd.
There are rumores the 10k and 10q maybe ready.
Lastly, business for SMCI is super strong. With Europe starting to negotiate large investments in AI, Sovereign AI, this means AI by country. Elon Musk has been speaking about AI data Centers and he did explain that these centers would be ultimately built in every city and town of the world. (subject to population size). He esplained that this would be a service similar to a utility, swage, electricity and AI. We have a very long way to go..... with SMCI
SMCI WILL FORM WELL ABOVE $500 The concept of "Sovereign AI" and SMCI building supercomputers in every country worldwide is an ambitious and speculative idea.
Infrastructure Investment
Building supercomputers in every country would require a massive global investment. Supercomputers are extremely expensive to design, build, and install, with costs ranging from $100 million to $300 million per system1. This doesn't include ongoing operational expenses.
Energy Requirements
Supercomputers consume enormous amounts of energy. On average, these systems use 6-7 megawatts of power, with peak consumption reaching 9.5 megawatts1. The annual energy cost for a single supercomputer can be approximately $6-$7 million1. Implementing such systems globally would require significant upgrades to power grids and energy infrastructure.
Total Cost of Ownership
The total cost of ownership for supercomputers goes beyond the initial investment. When factoring in electricity, labor, and facilities, the cost per core-hour can reach $0.12 to $0.15, assuming 100% utilization.
For a global initiative, these costs would be multiplied across numerous countries.
Economic Impact
The global supercomputer market is expected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it will reach $27.17 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 11.2%. A worldwide "Sovereign AI" initiative could potentially accelerate this growth.
Challenges
Implementing supercomputers globally faces several challenges:
High operating costs: The substantial energy consumption and maintenance requirements pose significant ongoing expenses.
Technical expertise: Managing and optimizing supercomputers requires specialized skills, which may be scarce in some countries.
Environmental concerns: The massive energy requirements raise environmental issues that would need to be addressed.
Potential Benefits
Despite the challenges, a global supercomputer network could offer benefits such as:
Advanced research capabilities:
Countries could enhance their scientific research in fields like climate science, genetics, and materials science.
Economic development:
Access to supercomputing power could drive innovation and economic growth across various sectors.
Data sovereignty: Countries could maintain control over their data and AI development, aligning with the concept of "Sovereign AI".
While the idea of SMCI building supercomputers in every country is speculative, sure, but as Elon said, AI will be just like a utility comany and will required AI centers globally. The global investment in AI infrastructure is indeed substantial. Goldman Sachs estimates that around $1 trillion will be spent over the next few years on data centers, semiconductors, and grid upgrades related to AI development. This gives an indication of the scale of investment required for a global supercomputing initiative. SMCI is at the forefront of the AI implementation. Learn about the new partnerships being formed with NVDA. Meanwhile you should be counting the sales SMCI has been making. Tripple capacity and demand for the next decaded.
SMCI: Rejection on the 1W MA50 will be the last buy opportunity.Super Micro Computer has turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 76.279, MACD = 3.600, ADX = 40.488) as a result of the relentless rally of the past 2 weeks but on 1W (RSI = 57.515) it just turned bullish, which is indicative of the long way it has to cover until it makes new ATH again following last year's accounting discrepancies. The price is about to test the 1W MA50 as a Resistance, which under normal circumastances of Bull Cycle, it is a support. A potential rejection there, should provide the last buy opportunity that will test the 1D MA50 as a Support. We remain long on SMCI, next TP = 95.00.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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SMCI: Buy ideaBuy idea on SMCI as you can see on the chart because we have the breakout with force the resistance line by a big green candle follow by a large green volume...
I don’t usually short stocks… But SMCI looks like a good bet to see much much lower pricing. I’m not going crazy but I’m planning on starting small short (1-2% of the account) and plan to up it to 3-4 if it looks favorable. I will have lots of time on this as it may take awhile to play out (3-6 months). The levels are clearly marked, red resistance / green support. I will short once momentum show signs of reversing. I will wait for a weekly red candle stick.
Micro Computer 2-17 (scalping + forecast) 🔥 Market Overview:
Trend: Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is in a strong uptrend, recovering from previous lows with high momentum.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $50–$52 (potential breakout zone).
Support: $44–$45 (Supertrend support).
Indicators:
EMA 9: $44.72 (acting as strong support).
EMA 200: $34.74 (long-term bullish signal as price remains above).
Supertrend: $41.64 (trend remains bullish).
MACD: Bullish, confirming continued momentum.
RSI: 77.57 (overbought, but strong momentum remains).
🔥 Scalping Strategy:
🩸 1. Momentum Scalping:
Buy near: $45–$46 on small pullbacks.
Target: $50–$52.
Stop-loss below: $43.
🩸 2. Breakout Scalping:
Long if price breaks above: $50, targeting $55.
Short if price rejects $50, targeting $45.
🩸 3. Range Scalping:
Sell near: $50–$52 resistance.
Target: $45–$43.
Stop-loss: $53 if breakout occurs.
🔥 Mid-Term Trend Forecast (1-3 Weeks):
If SMCI breaks $50, expect a rally toward $55–$60.
A rejection at $50 could lead to a short-term pullback toward $45–$43 before resuming the uptrend.
RSI is overbought, so some profit-taking is likely before the next move.
🔥 News & Market Context:
AI & Data Center Demand: SMCI benefits from strong AI-driven server demand.
Tech Sector Rally: Stock is riding the momentum of high-growth tech plays.
Macroeconomic Factors: Potential rate hikes may slow down speculative growth, but fundamentals remain strong.
🔥 Decision:
🩸 Short-term: Look for a breakout above $50 or a pullback for re-entry near $45.
🩸 Mid-term: Bullish, but extended. Look for consolidation before continuation.
🩸 Ideal Play: Buy on dips or scalp breakouts above $50.
👑 Final Verdict: Super Micro is in a powerful breakout phase, but profit-taking near resistance is possible. Bulls must clear $50 for continuation.
🔥 LucanInvestor's Quote: "Momentum is a weapon—use it wisely, or it turns against you."
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Shares Surge 13%Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Shares Surge 13%
The Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) stock chart shows:
→ Friday’s closing price rose over 13% from Thursday’s close;
→ The stock has surged more than 80% from its February low;
→ Friday’s close marked the highest level since late October 2024.
SMCI’s rally comes despite an 11 February quarterly report that missed expectations:
→ EPS: $0.59 vs. expected $0.60;
→ Revenue: $5.65bn vs. expected $5.72bn.
Bullish sentiment is driven by (according to media reports):
→ A forecasted $40bn revenue for FY2026, 70% higher than projected FY2025 revenue;
→ Reports indicate that SMCI shares are unlikely to be delisted from NASDAQ due to financial reporting issues (which we previously discussed when analysing the SMCI stock chart on 3 December);
→ Investor enthusiasm for AI and rapid data centre construction to support it.
Technical Analysis of SMCI Stock
The price has reached the key psychological level of $50 per share:
→ Historical price action at this level has often triggered significant reversals;
→ A bullish cup-and-handle pattern is forming.
A higher second low suggests growing demand strength, potentially leading to a bullish breakout above $50.
SMCI Stock Price Forecast
Analysts remain cautious. According to Yahoo Finance:
→ Only 2 of 6 analysts recommend buying SMCI shares;
→ The 12-month average price target is $47.91.
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$SMCI strong technical position with a bullish trendAs of February 6, 2025, MSCI Inc. (MSCI) is trading at $581.47, experiencing a slight decrease of 0.11% from the previous close.
Technical Analysis:
Over the past year, MSCI's stock has demonstrated a bullish trend, with a 52-week range between $439.95 and $642.45. The stock is currently trading approximately 9.5% below its 52-week high, indicating potential room for upward movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, maintaining a neutral stance. Moving averages, including the 50-day and 200-day, show a positive alignment, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
Fundamental Analysis:
MSCI has reported consistent revenue growth, with a 7.7% increase in operating revenue to $743.5 million in the recent quarter. However, operating expenses also rose by 5.9% to $338.3 million, primarily due to higher compensation and a 5.8% increase in employee headcount. This led to a 24.3% decline in fourth-quarter profit, totaling $305.5 million, or $3.90 per share, down from $403.4 million, or $5.07 per share, the previous year.
Despite the recent decline in profit, MSCI's expansion into ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) and climate-related products has been a significant growth driver. The ESG and Climate segment accounted for 11.2% of total revenue in the second quarter of 2024, up from 7.9% three years prior. This growth is attributed to increased demand from investors seeking to assess physical risks associated with climate change.
Potential Partnership with NVIDIA:
While there is no official announcement of a partnership between MSCI and NVIDIA, MSCI has expanded its collaboration with Google Cloud to accelerate the development of generative AI solutions for the investment industry. This partnership aims to leverage AI to help investors identify and manage risks and opportunities more effectively.
Given NVIDIA's leadership in AI technology, a potential future partnership between MSCI and NVIDIA could further enhance MSCI's AI capabilities, leading to increased efficiency and potentially significant revenue growth.
Conclusion:
MSCI Inc. exhibits a strong technical position with a bullish trend supported by favorable moving averages. Fundamentally, the company is expanding its offerings in high-demand areas such as ESG and AI-driven investment tools. The potential for a partnership with a leading AI company like NVIDIA could further bolster MSCI's growth prospects, making it an attractive consideration for investors.
SMCI LowerHi, on the techincal side, SMCI might go up to the EQH of that bearish breaker and continue lower, if it breaks 27$ imbalance then it will move right away.
NFA
SMCI seems nice SMCI seems to have nicely retested the OTE level from the Daily MMBM, so my current target levels are the -2/-2.5 standard deviation levels. The image shows my entry levels and potential target prices.
Let’s also analyze the stock fundamentally— why could it go higher ?
Fidelity, the third-largest asset manager in the world, initiated a new position in Q4 with 9.6 million shares valued at $460 million USD.
SMCI - Climbing out of the GRAVE! 100% UpsideNASDAQ:SMCI
🎯$64 🎯$85 Incoming
WOW, from dead company to short attacks into oblivion this company has clawed back from the grave!
- Inverse H&S
- Fake Out on the S/R Zone
- Green H5 with Bullish Cross
- Volume shelf with GAP
- Up Trending Wr%
- RSI/ STOCH breaking out of downtrend
If I was to enter this trade I would look for an entry at the retest of the Inverse H&S breakout (Blue Circle) while we also create a WCB!
Not financial advice
Long Trade Setup Breakdown for (SMCI) 30Mins
🔹 Asset: Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)
🔹 Timeframe: 30-Min Chart
🔹 Setup Type: Ascending Wedge Breakout
🚀 Trade Plan (Long Position):
✅ Entry Zone: $47.96 (Breakout Confirmation)
✅ Stop-Loss (SL): $45.35 (Below Support)
🎯 Take Profit Targets (Long Trade):
📌 TP1: $51.05 (First Resistance)
📌 TP2: $54.64 (Extended Bullish Target)
📊 Risk-Reward Ratio Calculation:
📈 Risk (Stop-Loss Distance):
$47.96 - $45.35 = $2.61
📈 Reward to TP1:
$51.05 - $47.96 = $3.09
💰 Risk-Reward Ratio to TP1: 1:1.18
📈 Reward to TP2:
$54.64 - $47.96 = $6.68
💰 Risk-Reward Ratio to TP2: 1:2.56
🔍 Technical Analysis & Strategy:
📌 Breakout Confirmation: Strong buying momentum above $47.96 signals continuation.
📌 Pattern Formation: Ascending wedge breakout, indicating bullish movement.
📊 Key Support & Resistance Levels:
🟢 $45.35 (Strong Support / SL Level)
🟡 $47.96 (Breakout Zone / Entry)
🔴 $51.05 (First Profit Target / Resistance)
🟢 $54.64 (Final Target for Momentum Extension)
🚀 Momentum Shift Expected:
If price sustains above $47.96, it could push towards $51.05 and $54.64.
A high-volume breakout would confirm the strength in trend continuation.
🔥 Trade Execution & Risk Management:
📊 Volume Confirmation: Ensure buying volume remains strong after breakout.
📈 Trailing Stop Strategy: If price reaches TP1 ($51.05), move SL to entry ($47.96) to lock in profits.
💰 Partial Profit Booking Strategy:
✔ Take 50% profits at $51.05, let the rest run to $54.64.
✔ Adjust Stop-Loss to Break-even ($47.96) after TP1 is hit.
⚠️ Fake Breakout Risk:
If price drops below $47.96, be cautious and watch for a retest before re-entering.
🚀 Final Thoughts:
✔ Bullish Setup – If price holds above $47.96, higher targets are expected.
✔ Momentum Shift Possible – Watch for volume confirmation.
✔ Favorable Risk-Reward Ratio – 1:1.18 to TP1, 1:2.56 to TP2.
💡 Stick to the plan, manage risk, and trade smart! 🚀🏆
🔗 #StockTrading #SMCI #BreakoutTrade #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends #ProfittoPat
After being bullish on SuperMicro for over a year, Milton Berg nHere are Milton's criteria for a Climax Top.
For the record, climax top in NASDAQ:SMCI is not a sell signal on the broad market, which Milton also has very strict rules for. But he discussed it in the context of typical action seen at the end of a bull market.
X dot com /JackFarley96/status/1763691194905670125
Breakout NeededGood day Team:
If we can get a bullish MACD crossover with a strong upward break out, we might have a nice short term bullish momentum. Be safe!
SMCI Super Micro Computer: SHORTI am not looking at Technical analysis etc.
I am looking at spike up and spike down.
I have been looking at those for 8 years at least 8 hours a day.
This beast is a sell short term.
My publications are not trading or investment advices.. Do your own analysis. I am not responsible for your trades.
SMCI: Sell ideaOn SMCI we would have a high probability of having a bearish trend given the configuration of the candles on the chart.
