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SMH trade ideas

Semiconductors ready for the next leg up - Zoom out !!!#FACTS -Breakout in SMH was 11 years back around 2014 and uptrend started -Last 10 years SMH just cannot be under the 200WSMA for long time -Since 2015 the bottom is at 0.5 fib retrace & takes 9 months + atleast 25% Pullback What are other confirming signals -SOXL 3x leveraged etf just had 2 days of Highest Volumes ever ! (leveraged funds arent good for charting but volume is a wake up slap in the face !) Last time that volume on soxl was 2020 bottom 2022 bottom so 2025 bottom ? MAYBE ? Got in AMEX:SOXL at $9-$10, once confirmed I will scale in for a swing
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by teaworldnow
1
$SMH vs $HACK Ratio Chart: Intra Tech sector rotation NASDAQ:SMH with closing @ 180 $ on 04 April 2025 is equivalent to drawdown we saw during COVID crash. During the covid crash the semiconductor ETF lost 37% and this tariff crash we also saw 36% drawdown. But in contrast to that the current tariff environment has only a peak drawdown of 25% in $HACK. AMEX:HACK is the ETF of the largest Cybersecurity in the market. Within the Technological sector there is a intra sector rotation form Semi and Software to Cybersecurity. This weakness in NASDAQ:SMH can be attributed to heavy weights like NASDAQ:NVDA and NASDAQ:AVGO which have been down more than 40% form their ATH. But in contrast NASDAQ:CRWD , NASDAQ:PANW and other cybersecurity stocks have shown great amount of strength. In this ratio chart we discussed earlier in this blog that there is a head and shoulder pattern forming indicated in the blue but then the drawdown in SMH pushed it below the neckline and we went below 3.15. The next level in the ratio chart is 2.71 to which we are very close. From the peak the ratio is down almost 40% which is the same as the drawdown in $SMH. The RSI in the chart is also oversold @ 28. My expectation the second neckline will not be broken, and we will hold the 2.7 ratio. Verdict: Overweight NASDAQ:SMH over $HACK. Both are good long-term buys.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by RabishankarBiswal
$SMH: First the generals then the index NASDAQ:SMH with closing @ 180 $ on 04 April 2025 is equivalent to drawdown we saw during COVID crash. During the covid crash the semiconductor ETF lost 37% and this tariff crash we also saw 36% drawdown. If this tariff war on goes then we might see some more weakness. With this drawdown the NASDAQ:SMH is below its 200 Day SMA. ‘Nothing good happens below 200 Day SMA’ and the ETF is below the upward sloping channel. The RSI is also touching the lows the lows we saw during the COVID time reaching the oversold mark of 30. This weakness can be attributed to heavy weights like NASDAQ:NVDA and NASDAQ:AVGO which have been down more than 40% form their ATH. But the question remains will the drawdown stop here or there is some more pain. But we should not forget the 3-day rule in the markets. Where the sell off peaks off in the 3rd Day. 07 April will be the 3rd Day after the tariff selloff. Should we call the bottom here? Unless we think that there will be a recession then these are good levels to buy. But if the tariff negotiations go on for longer period, then there will be chop around for a longer period and instead of a V shaped recovery we might see a U-shaped recovery in SMH. Verdict: Accumulate some NASDAQ:SMH here and go extra-long @ 170-180 $
NASDAQ:SMH
by RabishankarBiswal
1
$SMH/$NAS100 is clearly in a bearish patternThe semiconductor sector was the poster child of the 2023 & 2024 bull market. The cap weighted index is a momentum play with heavy weights like NASDAQ:NVDA and NASDAQ:AVGO outperforming and hence the ETF gives more than 100% return in 2 years. NASDAQ100 index is also cap weighted and momentum oriented. But the index provides diversification to a certain extent. NASDAQ:SMH hit an ATH in June 2024. In this chart we are plotting the ratio of NASDAQ:SMH vs $NAS100. The ratio peaked in June 2024. The ratio is making new lower lows and lower highs. If we plot the inverse head and shoulder, we see that the ratio can probably hit the neckline which lies at 0.01. This will indicate a 10% more downside in NASDAQ:SMH compared to $NAS100. Currently NASDAQ:SMH is at 226 $. This will indicate a low of 200 $ and then it might indicate a bounce back from those levels. Consolidation of NASDAQ:SMH around 220 $ - 200 $.
NASDAQ:SMH
by RabishankarBiswal
SMH make me Shake My Head...SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) Analysis & Prediction (March 14, 2025) ⸻ 1. Key Observations from the Chart ✅ Major Trendline Break • SMH has broken below its long-term rising trendline (yellow), indicating a shift from a bullish trend to a corrective phase. • The last time a similar break happened, a deeper correction followed before stabilizing. ✅ Key Support & Resistance Levels • Resistance Levels (Upside Targets) • $222.79 - $231.15 → Former support, now resistance zone. • $237.13 → Stronger resistance, where price previously rejected. • $242.32 → Major resistance, unlikely to be tested soon unless momentum shifts bullish. • Support Levels (Downside Risks) • $219.55 → Current support being tested. If it breaks, expect more downside. • $213.57 → Next key support level. • Below $213.57, further downside to ~$200 could be likely. ✅ Moving Averages Acting as Resistance • The 200-day EMA was broken & rejected, a strong bearish signal. ⸻ 2. Trend Analysis & Chart Patterns • Trend Breakdown: The long-term uptrend is broken, and price is trading under major EMAs. • Bearish Continuation Likely: If SMH fails to reclaim resistance, it could fall toward $213.57 or lower. ⸻ 3. Indicator Analysis 📉 Stochastic RSI (Momentum Indicator - Middle Panel) • Currently at 38.96, showing some attempt at stabilization but no confirmed bullish crossover. • Could still move lower before a true oversold bounce. 📉 MACD (Trend & Momentum - Bottom Panel) • Bearish MACD Cross Confirmed → MACD histogram turning deeply negative, showing strong downside momentum. • No signs of reversal yet. ⸻ 4. Prediction for Tomorrow (March 14, 2025) 🔵 Bullish Scenario (If SMH Holds $219.55 & Reclaims $222.79) • Trigger: If SMH bounces off $219.55 and breaks $222.79 • Target 1: $231.15 • Target 2: $237.13 • Probability: Medium (needs strong buying volume). 🔴 Bearish Scenario (If SMH Breaks Below $219.55 & Momentum Continues) • Trigger: If SMH falls under $219.55 and stays below • Target 1: $213.57 • Target 2: $200.00 (if selling accelerates) • Probability: High (Trend & momentum indicators suggest further downside). ⸻ Options Trading Strategies for SMH 🟢 Bullish Trade Ideas (If SMH Holds $219.55 & Breaks Above $222.79) 1. 0DTE Call Option (High Risk, High Reward) • Buy SMH $225 Call (Exp. 3/14) • Entry: If SMH breaks above $222.79 and holds • Exit Target: $231.15 • Stop-Loss: If SMH falls back below $219. 2. Bull Call Spread (Lower Risk) • Buy SMH $220 Call (Exp. 3/14) • Sell SMH $230 Call (Exp. 3/14) • Max Profit if SMH closes above $230 3. Sell a Bull Put Spread (Credit Strategy) • Sell SMH $220 Put • Buy SMH $215 Put • Profit if SMH stays above $220 ⸻ 🔴 Bearish Trade Ideas (If SMH Breaks Below $219.55 & Moves Toward $213.57) 1. 0DTE Put Option (High Risk, High Reward) • Buy SMH $215 Put (Exp. 3/14) • Entry: If SMH breaks below $219.55 • Exit Target: $213.57 • Stop-Loss: If SMH reclaims $222. 2. Bear Put Spread (Safer Play) • Buy SMH $220 Put (Exp. 3/14) • Sell SMH $210 Put (Exp. 3/14) • Max Profit if SMH closes below $210 3. Sell a Bear Call Spread (Credit Strategy) • Sell SMH $230 Call • Buy SMH $235 Call • Profit if SMH stays below $230 ⸻ 5. Conclusion: How to Trade SMH Tomorrow? • If SMH Holds $219.55 & Reclaims $222.79 → Go Long with Calls or Bullish Spreads • If SMH Breaks Below $219.55 → Go Short with Puts or Bearish Spreads • If Uncertain or Choppy → Iron Condor or Stay Out
NASDAQ:SMH
by ReadyFor401k
$SMH is in undecided watersMany Wall Street analyst will say there are no bull markets without the Semis. We have been going sideways for a few months. We are in a range within a major upward trend in the markets and the NASDAQ:SMH ETF. The same looks in the charts of NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AVGO etc. In this chart we plotted an upward trending parallel channel. The NASDAQ:SMH price have been within the parallel channel sweeping the upper and lower bound in this multiyear bull market. This is also evident here. But since hitting an ATH in July 2024. It has been sideways since then. It is forming a consolidating wedge pattern which can break either way. But usually, such consolidation pattern breaks in the direction of the underlying market trend. Long NASDAQ:SMH now and here when in consolidation pattern.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by RabishankarBiswal
Opening (IRA): SMH February 21st 195/220/270/295 Iron Condor... for a 3.91 credit. Comments: Back into the semiconductor ETF, where I don't have a position on currently. Going comparatively low delta, with the short options camped out at the 17 delta on both sides and the wings about 1/10th the price of the underlying in width. Metrics: Max Profit: 3.91 Buying Power Effect: 21.09 ROC at Max: 18.54% 50% Max: 1.96 ROC at 50% Max: 9.27% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll untested side in toward current price on side test.
NASDAQ:SMH
by NaughtyPines
Possible semiconductor $SMH deals on the horizonIf the Semiconductor Index NASDAQ:SMH in chart 1 fails to maintain the bullish order block at 237-246, which currently looks challenging, there's a potential for a countermovement upwards if it reaches the next support level between 214-224 This scenario could present a short term buying opportunity in some semiconductors stocks for those looking to go long With earnings reports for NASDAQ:ASML , NASDAQ:AMD , and NASDAQ:LRCX due within the next 8 days, these stocks could offer strategic entry points for a possible bounce: - NASDAQ:ASML : Bullish order block between $564-$600 (Chart 2) - NASDAQ:AMD : Bullish order block between $93-$102 (Chart 3) - NASDAQ:LRCX : Bullish order block between $57-$64 (Chart 4) These levels could serve as good opportunities for short-term investments, provided you monitor the market closely after the earnings announcements If any of these reach the target areas in the next few days, I will provide an update here
NASDAQ:SMH
by OfficerDonut