Semiconductor Jean-Paul Rodrigue ModelSemiconductor vs SPY seems to be following the Jean-Paul Rodrigue Model perfectly.
SMH trade ideas
Update on market and positions Will explain where we going and why
and to watch banks great short after rally
defaults coming
$SMH/$NAS100 is clearly in a bearish patternThe semiconductor sector was the poster child of the 2023 & 2024 bull market. The cap weighted index is a momentum play with heavy weights like NASDAQ:NVDA and NASDAQ:AVGO outperforming and hence the ETF gives more than 100% return in 2 years.
NASDAQ100 index is also cap weighted and momentum oriented. But the index provides diversification to a certain extent. NASDAQ:SMH hit an ATH in June 2024. In this chart we are plotting the ratio of NASDAQ:SMH vs $NAS100. The ratio peaked in June 2024. The ratio is making new lower lows and lower highs.
If we plot the inverse head and shoulder, we see that the ratio can probably hit the neckline which lies at 0.01. This will indicate a 10% more downside in NASDAQ:SMH compared to $NAS100. Currently NASDAQ:SMH is at 226 $. This will indicate a low of 200 $ and then it might indicate a bounce back from those levels.
Consolidation of NASDAQ:SMH around 220 $ - 200 $.
SMH make me Shake My Head...SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) Analysis & Prediction (March 14, 2025)
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1. Key Observations from the Chart
✅ Major Trendline Break
• SMH has broken below its long-term rising trendline (yellow), indicating a shift from a bullish trend to a corrective phase.
• The last time a similar break happened, a deeper correction followed before stabilizing.
✅ Key Support & Resistance Levels
• Resistance Levels (Upside Targets)
• $222.79 - $231.15 → Former support, now resistance zone.
• $237.13 → Stronger resistance, where price previously rejected.
• $242.32 → Major resistance, unlikely to be tested soon unless momentum shifts bullish.
• Support Levels (Downside Risks)
• $219.55 → Current support being tested. If it breaks, expect more downside.
• $213.57 → Next key support level.
• Below $213.57, further downside to ~$200 could be likely.
✅ Moving Averages Acting as Resistance
• The 200-day EMA was broken & rejected, a strong bearish signal.
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2. Trend Analysis & Chart Patterns
• Trend Breakdown: The long-term uptrend is broken, and price is trading under major EMAs.
• Bearish Continuation Likely: If SMH fails to reclaim resistance, it could fall toward $213.57 or lower.
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3. Indicator Analysis
📉 Stochastic RSI (Momentum Indicator - Middle Panel)
• Currently at 38.96, showing some attempt at stabilization but no confirmed bullish crossover.
• Could still move lower before a true oversold bounce.
📉 MACD (Trend & Momentum - Bottom Panel)
• Bearish MACD Cross Confirmed → MACD histogram turning deeply negative, showing strong downside momentum.
• No signs of reversal yet.
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4. Prediction for Tomorrow (March 14, 2025)
🔵 Bullish Scenario (If SMH Holds $219.55 & Reclaims $222.79)
• Trigger: If SMH bounces off $219.55 and breaks $222.79
• Target 1: $231.15
• Target 2: $237.13
• Probability: Medium (needs strong buying volume).
🔴 Bearish Scenario (If SMH Breaks Below $219.55 & Momentum Continues)
• Trigger: If SMH falls under $219.55 and stays below
• Target 1: $213.57
• Target 2: $200.00 (if selling accelerates)
• Probability: High (Trend & momentum indicators suggest further downside).
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Options Trading Strategies for SMH
🟢 Bullish Trade Ideas (If SMH Holds $219.55 & Breaks Above $222.79)
1. 0DTE Call Option (High Risk, High Reward)
• Buy SMH $225 Call (Exp. 3/14)
• Entry: If SMH breaks above $222.79 and holds
• Exit Target: $231.15
• Stop-Loss: If SMH falls back below $219.
2. Bull Call Spread (Lower Risk)
• Buy SMH $220 Call (Exp. 3/14)
• Sell SMH $230 Call (Exp. 3/14)
• Max Profit if SMH closes above $230
3. Sell a Bull Put Spread (Credit Strategy)
• Sell SMH $220 Put
• Buy SMH $215 Put
• Profit if SMH stays above $220
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🔴 Bearish Trade Ideas (If SMH Breaks Below $219.55 & Moves Toward $213.57)
1. 0DTE Put Option (High Risk, High Reward)
• Buy SMH $215 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Entry: If SMH breaks below $219.55
• Exit Target: $213.57
• Stop-Loss: If SMH reclaims $222.
2. Bear Put Spread (Safer Play)
• Buy SMH $220 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Sell SMH $210 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Max Profit if SMH closes below $210
3. Sell a Bear Call Spread (Credit Strategy)
• Sell SMH $230 Call
• Buy SMH $235 Call
• Profit if SMH stays below $230
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5. Conclusion: How to Trade SMH Tomorrow?
• If SMH Holds $219.55 & Reclaims $222.79 → Go Long with Calls or Bullish Spreads
• If SMH Breaks Below $219.55 → Go Short with Puts or Bearish Spreads
• If Uncertain or Choppy → Iron Condor or Stay Out
This Doesn't Look Very HealthyNVDA better knock the cover off the ball.
NASDAQ:SMH rejecting the retest of the failed channel/bear flag.
$SMH is in undecided watersMany Wall Street analyst will say there are no bull markets without the Semis. We have been going sideways for a few months. We are in a range within a major upward trend in the markets and the NASDAQ:SMH ETF. The same looks in the charts of NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AVGO etc.
In this chart we plotted an upward trending parallel channel. The NASDAQ:SMH price have been within the parallel channel sweeping the upper and lower bound in this multiyear bull market. This is also evident here. But since hitting an ATH in July 2024. It has been sideways since then. It is forming a consolidating wedge pattern which can break either way. But usually, such consolidation pattern breaks in the direction of the underlying market trend.
Long NASDAQ:SMH now and here when in consolidation pattern.
Opening (IRA): SMH February 21st 195/220/270/295 Iron Condor... for a 3.91 credit.
Comments: Back into the semiconductor ETF, where I don't have a position on currently. Going comparatively low delta, with the short options camped out at the 17 delta on both sides and the wings about 1/10th the price of the underlying in width.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 3.91
Buying Power Effect: 21.09
ROC at Max: 18.54%
50% Max: 1.96
ROC at 50% Max: 9.27%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll untested side in toward current price on side test.
Possible semiconductor $SMH deals on the horizonIf the Semiconductor Index NASDAQ:SMH in chart 1 fails to maintain the bullish order block at 237-246, which currently looks challenging, there's a potential for a countermovement upwards if it reaches the next support level between 214-224
This scenario could present a short term buying opportunity in some semiconductors stocks for those looking to go long
With earnings reports for NASDAQ:ASML , NASDAQ:AMD , and NASDAQ:LRCX due within the next 8 days, these stocks could offer strategic entry points for a possible bounce:
- NASDAQ:ASML : Bullish order block between $564-$600 (Chart 2)
- NASDAQ:AMD : Bullish order block between $93-$102 (Chart 3)
- NASDAQ:LRCX : Bullish order block between $57-$64 (Chart 4)
These levels could serve as good opportunities for short-term investments, provided you monitor the market closely after the earnings announcements
If any of these reach the target areas in the next few days, I will provide an update here
Buy Semiconductor ETFs 2025 breakout Semiconductor ETF breaking out of the triangle, also bounced of the 200-day moving average
SMH is bullish above 263SMH seems to be in a upward trend after hold the 200 and 50 SMAs as support. This ETF has been consolidating since July 2024 and if the market is truly going to hold this trend, best believe semis will not be left behind.
Some resistance may occur around 270(closing this gap)but clearing that can push to 280ish ATHs.
$SMHGetting very coiled back in the old triangle after a break out and very steep, harsh retest after a failed breakout. We held the bottom of the triangle and seem primed to launch of the vwap/volume. If we can springboard back out of the triangle there is an old volume gap from ~$262-272, right above early january highs. a $20 point move could happen quickly
SMH @ 200 Day SMAAs we have always said Semis are the new transports. SMH hit the 200 Day SMA on the daily chart. It has been forming a symmetrical wedge pattern. It has an equal opportunity to break out towards upside or downside. The RSI has been oscillating between 60 and 40 since Nov 2024. Watchout the SMH chart to confirm if stock market bull market is intact.
Opening (IRA): SMH February 21st 200/225/270/295 Iron Condor... for a 5.44 credit.
Comments: At 42 DTE, selling premium in the semiconductor exchange-traded fund here with a neutral assumption ... . Using wings that are 1/10th of the price of the underlying in width.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 5.44
Buying Power Effect: 19.56
ROC at Max: 27.8%
50% Max: 2.67
ROC at 50% Max: 13.9%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll in untested side on side test.
SMH - What if this Medianline-Set holds evidence?The upward momentum changed when price closed and opened below the white L-MLH.
The rules say, that when price is leaving the Fork, open and close outside, we can expect a test/retest at the L-MLH.
This is exactly what happened.
Shorts got squeezed by a GAPer of the Market Makers move. And I admit, I could imagine a further rise for a third test at the L-MLH.
However, SMH is being observed very closely from now on.
Daily dose of Chart :Intrasector rotation with Tech. SMH vs HACKEven if the XLK (Tech sector ETF) hitting all time highs. But within the sector we see major rotation from Semis to Software to Cyber security. Last 6 months the Semis underperformed the Cybersecurity sector. But this has flipped recently on the daily basis. There is a bullish head and shoulders pattern forming on the SMH / HACK.
CHIP SECTOR TO CRASH SMH The chart posted is the SMH we are now in the final 5th wave and it is a classic 5th wave Diagonal in the 5th wave wave to form a double top into fib cycle peak .From here we should see a major break down in All chip stocks into Oct 2025 but we should see the first leg down low march 10/20th 2025 this should be a Very Bearish action world wide see spy and qqq as well . This is the warning to All traders EXIT INTO RALLIES THE BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER
Semis: a decisive week for sure!The fate of the market in Q1 is probably in the hands of the Semis and this weekly chart tells me that while indecision is still in the air, we are most likely going to have a breakout upwards.
Price is squeezed in this VCP chart also by the AVWAPs. I have to say it's a beautiful setup.
I am loaded with SMH LEAPS so I can only hope I am right. Also ready to pull the plug if Jensen at CES is just a sell the news event.
SMH / IGV : Semis vs Software on a monthly basisSeems price have memory. This 22 years chart of SMH vs IGV shows failed breakout of Semis vs IGV on a monthly basis plotted over 22 years. Will it breakout this time around after a 22 years base building ? Can NVDIA and AVGO help ?
SMH vs SPYCan S&P 500 have a bullish run with semis not participating in it ? Bullish head and shoulders on SMH vs SPY. Semis are the new Transports.
SMH Roadmap Dec 2024Semis have still upside i think into Spring. This structure is similar to 2000 topping pattern in SPX
