Semis ready to go downReached the top channel, expecting the trend to break as early as next week followed by a big sell off. Looks to be following the fractal I identified back in July with some slight adjustments.
SMH trade ideas
Topping pattern on SMH with MACD divergence downBeen away overseas for last month or so. back at my trading desk now. Topping pattern on SMH with MACD divergence down. Not huge clarity on double/triple top. grabbed Jan 24th expiration 137.5 and 140 puts at .35c and .56c
SMH Short Thesis The Next MonthI'm not currently short the semis but upon doing some research I found a nice setup thesis. Similar weekly candles. I see the previous time SMH found it's low about 15.7% down from that weekly candle close after 29 days. If you use the same 15% calculation after 28/29 days, it brings you to the 23% fibonacci level at $120.
This is only a theory at this point and I'll continue to do some digging on it. But it looks ripe for a give back leading up to earnings or after earnings. I'm going to look for a put spread entry on Monday.
Good luck - and as always, don't trade based on my opinions or hypotheses.
SMH
SMH - Short-term BearishTRADING ACTIVE
Chart Details
SMH had sell signal on Daily yesterday.
I entered trade but did not post. Waited for trend dots to confirm.
Trend dots confirmed bearish trend very end of day.
Gaps to fill below down to $111.
Weekly RSI trend is about to breakdown.
Daily trend dots confirmed bearish trend.
I will post a Weekly view chart for SMH when trend confirms Bearish weekly view.
Entry Options
I am entered in the Jan 17. Expiry, 140/145 Call Credit Spread (Bearish bias). $2.48 Credit received. This trade assumes both 140 & 145 Calls will expire worthless with SMH below $140 by Jan 17. Total credit is kept as profit. Max gain and max loss both approximately $250. Average POP around 65%. Not the best.
About Me
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing.
I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
I am transitioning to my new website www.moneypatterns.com. Same guy - new name. :)
Website will be ready for launch mid-January 2020. Thank you for your patience while I try to juggle everything and maintain the same standards.
Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC.
Short term - GDX Bullish, SPXS Bullish, SMH Bearish
$SMH SHORT AT 142.5 TARGETING 135 AND 128 BEARISH Bearish candlesticks pattern with negative RSI and overbought MFI
