"Have at it folks" - (Semi-conductors)Buyer beware here for the semis... NASDAQ:SMH
Monthly chart, parallel channel resistance..
SMH trade ideas
SMH shortBearish Engulfing, breakaway Gap, trendline break + retest.
assumption: Fib# Ext. to 3.618 ( 238 ), retracement to 1.618 (182)
Short 240
Stop 225
Target 185
Risk management is much more important than a good entry point.
I am not a PRO trader.
In my trading plan, the Max Risk of each short term trade should be less than 1% of an account.
Opened: SMH March 15th 169/175/199/205 Iron Condor... for a 2.07 credit.
Comments: 30-day IV at 27.8%. (Higher would be better, but you can't have everything).
Collecting 1/3rd of the width of the wings in credit. 2.07 credit on BPE of 3.93; 52.7% ROC at max; 26.3% at 50% max.
As usual, will generally look to take profit at 50% max; adjust sides on side test. This is probably my last trade in the March monthly, since 45 DTE is kind of the wheelhouse for this stuff, and the March monthly is at 43 DTE.
I'll mostly hand sit from here until month end, with most of the trades being adjustments.
SMH $350 by Decmber 2025There are a number of trends and fibs that are showing SMH could be $350 by December of 2025. Of course, the smaller channel intersects with top of the larger channel right around that time, which would be likely to see a significant pullback.
Thoughts? Questions? Let me know and boost if you like this idea!
$SMH: Little More Off 210?SMH and AMD are showing signs of continuing their run here and we believe there could be a trade made here for a move off this handle. Prominent outperformance by both and our belief at the moment is that the Nasdaq may help out.
Opening (IRA): SMH March 15th 176 Monied Covered Call... for a 172.42 debit.
Comments: While I'm waiting for a July contract to open up in broad market instruments (IWM, QQQ, SPY), shopping around the ETF space for premium. Relative to broad market, SMH IV isn't horrible (the 30-day is currently at 29.3%). Selling the -75 delta call against long stock, to emulate a 25 delta short put and to take advantage of call IV skew (32.9% on the call side; 27.2% on the put).
3.58 max on BPE of 172.42; 2.08% at max; 1.04% at 50% max.
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll out the short call to reduce cost basis further if it doesn't get there.
Parking some funds into this ETF - SMHIf we take a step back and plot the weekly chart of SMH, there lies a possibility that we may have a ABC pattern playing out in the weeks/months to come.
We are not out of the descending channel yet (a bullish sign) and it could also notch another level down as well (can't rule this out though I think is quite remote), so those who have yet to go LONG can wait for the breakout, establish bullish signals on smaller time frame and decide if you should add this to your portfolio.
SMHNot the best spot to try & get long semi's imo. NVDA reports tonight. I'm playing it short via SOXS. This way I won't get burned if NVDA doesn't fall hard & could possibly get a chance to add if NVDA goes up a little. Ultimately looking for SMH to test VWAP from October lows around $172.
SMH double top??What do you think?!? Looks easy to see IMO. Daily top on the SMH. Bad things coming for semis?
SMH to $191 Anchored in 2018 FibThis is a very long-term view of SMH. You can see the FIB that is in play which is anchored at $41 in December of 2018. We ran up all the way to just about $160 in December of 2021. We had a hard pullback to $84 and did a fast turn around, again to $160, in July of 2023.
We retraced almost perfectly to the 50% of that move to $136 and we are now in the uptrend of that move, which we hit that .272 extension of at $166.
We pulled back and are now heading for the 272 extension at $190, anchored way back in 2018. We may get there pretty quick and I would not be surprised if we peak out over the top of the channel to do it.
What do you think?
All time highs : MEMBERS DAILY ANALYSIS Jan 21 2024 The S&P500 broke out this week to new all time highs.
Finally playing catchup the nasdaq indices.
Semi-conductors continue to be the bright spot in the market.
10 year yield confims breakout.
many S&P sectors closed negative on the week despite the marekt making ATH's
VanEck ETF (SMH) should target 238 then 258Weekly chart, the formed chart pattern (Cup & Handle) has a target of 238, then 258 (after stabilizing above 240)
The stop loss below line R2 should be considered.
SMH - Inverse H&SSMH has formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern. Looking for a bounce to 169-170 if it can close above the neck line. Trading this with SOXL if pattern confirms.
$SMH Cup & Handle PatternWait for a pull back to the blue trend line before buying. A close below and the pattern fails. Best moves come from failed moves.
Cup & Handle Pattern The NASDAQ:SMH (Semiconductor ETF) is exhibiting a Cup & Handle pattern in technical analysis. This bullish continuation pattern involves a rounded bottom (cup) followed by a consolidation period (handle). Investors often anticipate an upward breakout after the handle formation, suggesting potential positive price movement in semiconductor stocks.
$SMH Looking for Gap Fill?The semiconductor sector has been on fire since bottoming out at the end of October. In fact, the low to the high in November was just over 21%! Some consolidation of those gains would be healthy.
I am looking for the NASDAQ:SMH ETF to fill the gap from Nov 14th. I am not predicting that it will however, I am thinking that is a good possibility. I have an alert set just above the gap fill. If that triggers, I will be looking for a reversal back up for a long entry. All TBD. NASDAQ:SOXX is a similar ETF with a similar pattern so whichever one you prefer I think is worth putting on a watchlist.
I ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
SMH ELLIOT WAVE STRUCTURE WAVE 5 of 3 ended165.5The chart posted can now be posted and the ew labeling we have now ended or will end wave 5 of 5 of wave 3 top and begin a sharp drop in thr sox and smh back down for a week or more in wave 4 of 5 of 5 then The last wave up will end the rally from oct 13 th 2022 in super cycle degree and we will then see a drop back to .382 to 50 % from 2009 once more in wave A of the super cycle bear POINT for reference see 1998 to 2000 Internet BUBBLE A.I Bubble
$SMH upward mean reversion incoming…$SMH:1D
Signal sitting just above the -3SD (136.46) and needs to reverse trend in order to maintain the strength of the longterm linear regression trend at 0.91 Pearson R^2. Given the strength of the multi-year trend, an attempt at an upward mean reversion to the 161.17 price region is not unreasonable to expect going into the end of the year.
I would expect resistance at the 0.5 Retrace (148.69) to the upside and trend could withstand a move down to the 1.382 (132.93) before trend began to ‘shatter’.
We have a minor bullish price/RSI divergence with price printing lower lows and RSI printing higher lows.
Price correlation to AMEX:SPY over the last 50 trading days is very strong at 0.88. Returns correlation to the AMEX:SPY over the last 50 days is relatively strong at 0.82 with a beta of 1.43X the broader market ( AMEX:SPY ).
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. ALL STOCKS CAN GO TO ZERO.
$SMH Cup & Handle Pattern ### Technical Analysis Overview: VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF ( NASDAQ:SMH ) – Cup & Handle Formation on Weekly Chart
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF ( NASDAQ:SMH ), which tracks the performance of the semiconductor sector, is currently exhibiting a classic Cup & Handle pattern on its weekly chart. This pattern is a significant indicator in technical analysis, often suggesting a potential bullish continuation.
#### Understanding the Cup & Handle Pattern
The Cup & Handle is a bullish chart pattern that typically forms during an uptrend and is indicative of a period of consolidation followed by a potential breakout. It consists of two main parts:
1. **The Cup**: This part of the pattern represents a period of consolidation, starting with a gradual decline in price, followed by a bottoming out and a recovery back to the starting level. The cup should have a rounded or "U" shape, indicating a stabilization of price after a downturn.
2. **The Handle**: After the formation of the cup, a slight downward drift in price forms the handle. This is usually a smaller retracement and does not fall deep into the cup. The handle can be seen as a bullish flag or pennant and represents a final consolidation or a shakeout of less committed traders before a potential upward breakout.
#### Implications for NASDAQ:SMH
For NASDAQ:SMH , the emergence of the Cup & Handle pattern is an encouraging sign for bullish investors. It suggests that after enduring a period of correction and consolidation, the ETF might be preparing for a continuation of its previous upward trend.
#### Key Aspects to Monitor
- **Breakout Point**: The critical level to watch is the resistance line formed at the top of the cup. A strong move above this level, preferably with increasing trading volume, could signal the continuation of the bullish trend.
- **Handle Formation**: The depth and duration of the handle are crucial. It should be relatively shallow compared to the cup and show signs of stabilizing or minor retracement.
- **Volume Analysis**: An authentic breakout is typically accompanied by a surge in trading volume, providing additional confirmation of the pattern’s validity.
#### Trading Considerations
Investors considering positions in NASDAQ:SMH should closely observe the completion of the handle and the subsequent price action. A breakout above the rim of the cup could present a potential entry point for a long position, while a decline below the handle might necessitate a reassessment of the bullish outlook.
It is important to remember that while the Cup & Handle pattern is a powerful tool in technical analysis, it should be considered in conjunction with other indicators and market fundamentals to make well-rounded investment decisions.
$SMH Weekly Cup with Handle FormationNASDAQ:SMH could be a big beneficiary "if" interest rates level out or even start dropping. This Cup w/ Handle formation is also about a 2 year base suggesting that if / when it breaks out, it could have a big run. All TBD.
See Notes on chart for more of my thoughts. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome.
Opening (IRA): SMH January 19th 120 Short Put... for a 1.30 credit.
Comments: Adding another rung to my SMH position out in January at a strike better than what I have on in December at the 125, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
Opening (IRA): SMH January 19th 115 Short Put... for a 1.27 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the underlying. I currently have a December 125 and January 120, so this is at a better strike than what I currently have on.
Opening (IRA): SMH December 15th 125 Short Put... for a 1.55 credit.
Comments: Adding a rung out in December to my SMH position, targeting the <16 strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate collar cost averaging into the underlying.
Opening (IRA): SMH Dec 15th/Jan 19th 112.5 Short PutsComments: Adding in at strikes better than what I currently have on (which seems to be a recent theme), targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market.
