Smh (NVDA,AMD) Rejected on yellow trendline resistance.
Sitting right on .236 fib,
Short below 240
Target 226
Should see AMD close gap a 75
And NVDA 208 gap close
SMH trade ideas
SMH (NVDA ,AMD)Do or die for chip sector.
H&Shoulders pattern evident but the right shoulder remains in question... looks like a pennant which on a lower time frame could be bullish. If support is broken Chip will will begin a major correction in which spy most likely will pull back to 380 or lower.
Bulls need a breakout and close above 241.
SMH to $225I believe SMH will complete the AB=CD pattern at $225.
Not financial advice, good luck to all :)
SMH - It's not as bad as you think.....SMH closed today at 234.30, above the Ichimoku Cloud and well above the downtrend channel set from 2022 high to low (grey shaded area). SMH has clearly broken out of this channel, has successfully retested. I see next low at 232.40, which is a Gann confluence line, and then a move back upwards (point D). The reason I see a bounce is that the RSI is approaching oversold on the daily at the confluence line.
Have we broken the bear downtrend? Looks like it to me. In order to resume the bear trend, we would at least need to drop at least to 175 (another Gann Confluence line), which would only take us to approximately the top of the down channel. That would be a 25.6% drop from today's close. If we want to continue the bear trend, then we would need to take out 166.97, the October low, which would be a 28.7% decline from today's close.
Is it possible that we drop another 25 - 28% from here? Of course, anything is possible. However, I don't see it as probable, unless there is a BLACK SWAN event, which no one can predict in any event (by definition). I know that many semi companies have laid off employees, and taken their pill. So future earnings reports may exceed expectations, although product demand remains an uncertainty. But I don't see a 25% drop from here in Semis on organics alone.
SMH (Nvda, Tsm,AMD,)Similar setup as XLK .. pulling back to purple line here . From there we will either bounce or head lower
$SMH inside day with the double inside week. $SMH inside day with the double inside week.
I'm looking for the 2-1-2u with the breakout
Calls over $253.14
Target $255
Puts under $247.55
Target $ 244.58
Smh (Chip sector)The melt up is almost over.
Gapped up to resistance today. Still need to break that yellow uptrend
SOXS play. SMH Short Look at this respect!! SMH tagging long term trend line and pulling back. Also a perfect double bottom on SOXS.
SMH - Semi conductors /Chip sectorMelting up to 231 here; at that point we will either breakout or begin another correction.
So how do you use this sector info to make a trade? First you identify the biggest stocks in the sector (NVDA, TSM).
Secondly , Ask yourself this, "if SMH can move to 231 what will that bullish move do for NVDA"?
Looking at NVDA stock , I see a gap close at 177 that would be my bullish target to match smh move to 231
Opening (IRA): SMH Feb/March 170/154 Short Put LadderComments: My broad market positions are getting a little crowded and busy, so deploying some buying power into some sector ETF's, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
30-day isn't bad here at 36.3%, but this isn't exactly as weak as it has been, so it's possible that a better entry could be had. Because of that, I'll look to potentially add should better opportunities present themselves.
The goal here is to collect premium and/or to reduce cost basis in shares that you might be eventually assigned and not necessarily to get ideal entries; there is, after all, some "slop"/room to be wrong with these. That being said, being patient and getting paid something decent for a lower strike is always a good thing, since a lower strike means a smaller buying power effect.
February 17th 170: 1.74 credit
March 17th 154: 1.54 credit
Opening (IRA): SMH Feb/March 164/154 Short Put LadderComments: Adding a smidge to my SMH position with two rungs out in February and March, targeting the strikes paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
February 17th 164: 1.65 credit
March 17th 154: 1.54 credit
VOLUME FLOW: SEMI'S ($SMH) AGAINST THE BROADER MARKET ($SPY)VOLUME FLOW INDEX:
Both $SPY (broader market) and $SMH (semi-conductor industry) are currently in a neutral trend as measured by their 13 Day EMA envelope (top box). Both are also residing in similar places within their longer term downward trends. It is only when we take a look at volume as measured by the Volume Flow Index (VFI) that we can uncover some relative differences that could prove meaningful in the near term.
Volume has yet to breach zero line (white horizontal histogram) to the upside in broader market ($SPY, see left lower box).
Volume has breached the zero line in the semi-conductor sector($SMH, see lower right box), as illustrated by the yellow vertical line. This would indicate good 'force' behind the recent semi-conductor rally as measured by 'volume follow through' which I would consider a measure of 'conviction'.
This could be indicative of a near term preference for the semi's amidst an overall run to defensives in the broader market OR it could just be that semi's are a little bit stickier than the rest of 'growth' and still have some downside wood to chop. Given the semi's association with 'Growth' this divergent volume trend seemed counter-intuitive to the prevailing narrative so I thought I would share.
(Not financial advice)
last stand 2023semiconductors, tech, and the market could make a technical bull case for itself. im not ruling out the shot at a big comeback in 2023. if we turn a sellsided equillibrium to a breakout this is what a weekly reverse head and sgoulders could look like.
October rally ready to resume?If you have been anticipating a resumption in the October rally, this may be the trigger. The SMH/SOX is the (I believe) the last of the major indicies to still have a gap left unfilled. If it closes today (or this week), then maybe we can get going to the upside. Some resource stocks have already started their ascent (GDX, SILJ, UUUU, UEC, NXE, etc.)
SMH (Semi's) Technical Support + Gap Fill + .618 Fib At $195.This is an intriguing swing trade bounce level if it hits within the next few trading days. To have 3 factors at one price level is rare and ups the probabilities of a bounce. Not a long term level, just a technical bounce level.
Note: This is not financial advice.
Rectangle TopAlso a Head and Shoulders pattern with a "wide" head.
Bad tops come in all different shapes and sizes and is why I just call them "ugly tops" sometimes.
The similarity between top patterns is price hits a certain level and can NOT break the high.
Rectangles are easy to measure as it will most often break up or down the width of that rectangle and you need only find the resistance and support lines of the rectangle. A rectangle needs 5 touches of the 2 trendlines.
An Ugly top or Head and Shoulders top is easy to see for me, but the neckline can be tricky to see. The neckline is support until broken and often you will see a struggle for price to stay above it with small dips below it. The shoulders should be close to equidistant from the head and somewhat close in price when compared to each other, but very rarely exact. Once the neckline is broken, you should see resistance there if you chose the right level.
No recommendation.
Targets possible are below price in orange type with possible targets 1 in larger type. Targets 2 are in smaller type in case possible T1 are passed.
SMH: A POTENTIAL DEAD CAT BOUNCEDuring this Semiconductor ETF's rise to the top, price retested the high 220s and low 230s zone multiple times. This price range acted as a zone of support (marked by the green box). Since august of 2022, SMH price action has struggled to rise above this zone, turning this zone into resistance (marked by the red box).
Additionally, SMH's downfall (beginning early 2022) has respected the blue downward trendline. We observed a break of the trendline in November of 2022. If price respects the trendline, we will see a bounce to the upside.
If price returns to the red box zone (around low 230s), look for a reversal to occur consistent with the previous price rejections at this range.
SMH - up 33% in 21 DaysSMH up 33% in 21 trading days, and 14% in the last 2 days. SMH has not come back to its downtrend line with lots of air and gaps to fill below. AMD and NVDA up more than the index itself during the same time. As of the close semis are down just under 31% on the year. Semiconductor bear markets are much deeper and longer. Looks like the next leg down may be just around the corner. Happy Trading!
SMH (NVDA,AMD,Chips)Wed- rejected at resistance
Thursday- Gap down to fib support
Friday - Gapped back up to resistance today and got rejected
Its coming down too, they (MM) are just using a sector to prop things up today. Once we break back below 181, things will flush quickly.
SMH ETF (Global Semiconductor’s trend”..20/Oct/22VanEck ETF which “tracking /invest” on 25 global major semiconductors stocks. Probably found its “base” @ around 148.90 - P/s. Probably the “next recession” might be caused by “geopolitical tensions” cause by 2 big brothers..A kinds of “wars e.g chips war, trade war, or “actual war”....” Probably an “Imposed /sanctioned by” a “freedom democracy/free trade” country toward “a so called not a democracy country”..
If semis don't ramp, I'd be SHOCKEDHey all, if you were to look at my portfolio right now, you'd probably be surprised at how much my allocation is shifted towards semiconductor names like NVDA, SMH, AMD, AMAT; I look at all these charts and see nothing except for upside in the near-term. Names are all overdue a significant bounce and are basing as I write this post. In my eyes, it's a matter of time until these names ramp to the upside. I would not be surprised at all if TSLA's earnings call tonight catalyzes things. Even IF this trade does seem to go awry(Which I sincerely doubt will happen), I expect there to be easy exit opportunities at break-even, but I'll worry about that if we get to that point. Regardless, I think semiconductors long here is the best trade in the stock market over the next week.
I believe AMAT is my biggest position long, SMH second largest, then NVDA/AMD
