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SMH trade ideas

SMH swing shortHey all, I've been busy over the last 3 weeks traveling through Europe and haven't been able to post all my up-to-date convictions. In short though, I am looking below. I think semiconductors are likely going to be the best risk-reward short you will see in a while. I'm currently short on SMH and many other semiconductor names at slightly higher prices, but I think now is still a great entry. I have a sneaking suspicion NVDA may fall hard after earnings, and I wouldn't want to miss being on the right side of that.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by MichaelEugen1
SMH for a Bear RallyPotential inverse H&S forming Will complete at $220 Target off pattern is $250 area where there is prior consolidation range 17% return from current price Assumptions: S&P 500 will rally at least 10% to around 4200, Nasdaq will outperform, semiconductors will outperform Nasdaq. Trade is dependent on bear market rally. If not expecting continued rally, no trade. Expect a front loaded rally. A slower/longer rally will more likely terminate at a lower target such as the higher gap at $232.27
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by BasedCharts
Shaking my head...Hey all, I've been calling for a rally these last few weeks, and the rally has occurred; I am now looking to enter short with heavy size tomorrow, 7/29. SMH is my favorite ETF in terms of shorting opportunity- it has made a very clean Wyckoff distribution at the top, and has very little support on the way down. I am incredibly bearish on semiconductors here-I think virtually all semiconductors present solid short opportunities here. I think it likely goes much lower than my price target with time, but I'll reassess when it is lower.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by MichaelEugen1
1
SMH - TECH Welfare @ $282 Billion / $25B Tax Credit PerNancy and the Gang anxiously await the Senates Taxpayer handout to the Industry. Po Nancy, $107 Million simply is not enough for her and Pablo the Shark Tank Drunk. Nancy had to gobble $341K in losses on NVDA after exiting her 25K Shares in a loss due to slime lights a shinning. Bravo, add 3 zeros and it's all good. Everyone should lose a hand. Preferably, a head. __________________________________________________________________________ They'll need to expedite this Grift Gift as China's warned off the Carrier Group as well as Fancy - show up and it's going to be "A Dangerous Moment"... Nancy risks our young men and women in the Navy with harm's way... Don't give it a second thought. Saddle up and please take the rest of the House and Senate with you. Create a Threat to National Security... Risk Lives, Profit from it as a matter of course. Shut up Hoi Polloi, we didn't ask you, we decide - you obey. ___________________________________________________________________________ The insiders in and outside the Beltway can't wait to get this Theft to the House and wrap it up for August recess. Qui Bono, you ask? Intel, TSMC, and Texas Instruments - direct Jing. Fabless chipmakers like Nvidia and AMD will not be left out in the cold. They will receive "Scientific Grants out of the $230 Billion in free money for "Innovation." It is quite likely the following Companies will join the Grift eventually: Micron Technology Inc. (MU) Amkor Technology Inc. (AMKR) Camtek Ltd. (CAMT) Analog Devices Inc. (ADI) Although these ladies doth protest too much, it's an irresistible deal... free money. We'll see $175B in Tax Credits gifted when everyone joins the Semi-Orgy. You and me - we get the Bill @ $457 Billion. Enjoy or do something. ps. - IMF: Russian economy doing better than expected
NASDAQ:SMH
by HK_L61
8
The end is not here, but it’s closerHello friends. Semiconductors are the new oil, but that's not a good thing. Semiconductors (and subsequently their stocks) have been rapidly rising due to massive global shortages. Like with every trend ever, emotional retail traders tend to assume that it will last for eternity, and rational observers of the market who have been here long enough know that it will in fact not last forever. "Nothing gold can stay." Shortages are an issue that markets have the function to resolve, both by crushing demand (Fed is doing this + high prices are also doing the same), and creating new supply faster (semi producers are doing this). Shortages are not usually a persistent problem, they are a temorary hiccup not unlike the 2020 Covid crash was. Brandon Kulik: To me, if I was writing a headline, I’d say something like, “The end is not here, but it’s closer.” That’s how I’d represent it. This dude has *decades* of experience in the semi industry. We listen when he talks. We take notes. The interesting thing about how Kulik worded this, is that the EWT count of the chart tells the EXACT same story. The party isn't quite over yet. But it will be, soon. We are expecting to see a pullback in semis along with the broader market, which will flush out the glut of retail puts and allow for larger players to position themselves for the coming decline. Another thing to keep an eye on is the average P/E ratio of this sector. Due to the bubble, it has risen to an eye-popping 32.94, which is probably a lot higher than it should be. Assuming we have a recession (81% chance this will happen in Q2 2022), this P/E ratio should compress to more like the 15 to 20X P/E range, which represents substantial downisde in price, not to mention downside in earnings.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by bowtrix