Closed (Margin): SMH October 21st 190C/205P Short Strangle... for a 22.80 credit.
Comments: Collected a total of 22.93 for this. (See Post Below). Took the opportunity to take it off for a minuscule winner (.13/$13) in this up move.
SMH trade ideas
Rolling: SMH October 21st 210 Short Call to 190... for a 7.14 credit.
Comments: Inverting my short strangle here ... . Total credits collected of 22.93 on a 15 wide inverted that is currently marking at 26.83 (ugh). Resulting delta/theta of 20.11/26.27 with a cost basis of 182.07 if assigned on the 205 short put.
Rolled (Margin): SMH October 21st 225 Short Call to 210... for a 3.92 credit.
Comments: Delta balancing back to delta/theta ratio of <1/1. Total credits collected of 15.79. Current delta/theta: 17.48/25.39 and marking at 17.90 or so, so I'm underwater on the position by 2.11 ($211) or so.
Rolled (Margin): SMH October 21st 235 Short Call to 225... for a 2.20 credit.
Comments: Rolling down the untested side of my short strangle, the short put leg of which is at the 205. Total credits collected of 11.87 with a resulting delta/theta of 12.67/21.50. Unfortunately, there are only five wides available in the October monthly at the moment, so it's hard to be surgical with adjustments.
Rolled (Margin): SMH October 21st 255 Short Call to 235... for a 2.32 credit.
Comments: Reduced directionality. Total credits collected of 9.67 with a resulting delta/theta of 16.95/19.49.
A review on one of my best analysis ever..!I published an analysis of 7 Semiconductor and their ETF on August 29th (for Patrons), I will share it publicly here:
8 out of 8 positions are in the profit now!
The boat has started sailing...
Opening (Margin): SMH October 21st 205/260 Short Strangle... for a 7.35 credit.
Comments: 30-day IV still a smidge above 35% with IVR at mid-range (46.9th percentile). Selling around the 20 delta on both sides. 7.35 credit on buying power effect of 23.20; 31.7% ROC as a function of buying power effect; 15.8% at 50% max. Delta/theta -.3/15.55.
SMH swing shortHey all,
I've been busy over the last 3 weeks traveling through Europe and haven't been able to post all my up-to-date convictions. In short though, I am looking below. I think semiconductors are likely going to be the best risk-reward short you will see in a while. I'm currently short on SMH and many other semiconductor names at slightly higher prices, but I think now is still a great entry. I have a sneaking suspicion NVDA may fall hard after earnings, and I wouldn't want to miss being on the right side of that.
Closed (Margin): SMH September 16th 220/260 Short Strangle... for a 4.57 debit.
Comments: Collected a total of 7.44 with one put side adjustment to delta balance. (See Post Below). 2.87 ($287) profit with 28 days to go.
Profit taking Pause coming?comparing the higher beta, higher risk assets vs the sp500 to get a view of current price action. ARKK SMH XLY QQQ SPY XLP
Rolled (Margin): SMH September 16th 192 Short Put to the 220... for a 2.47 credit.
Comments: Rolling up the untested side to delta balance. Total credits collected of 7.44; delta/theta -12.93/19.76.
SMH for a Bear RallyPotential inverse H&S forming
Will complete at $220
Target off pattern is $250 area where there is prior consolidation range
17% return from current price
Assumptions: S&P 500 will rally at least 10% to around 4200, Nasdaq will outperform, semiconductors will outperform Nasdaq.
Trade is dependent on bear market rally. If not expecting continued rally, no trade.
Expect a front loaded rally. A slower/longer rally will more likely terminate at a lower target such as the higher gap at $232.27
Shaking my head...Hey all, I've been calling for a rally these last few weeks, and the rally has occurred; I am now looking to enter short with heavy size tomorrow, 7/29. SMH is my favorite ETF in terms of shorting opportunity- it has made a very clean Wyckoff distribution at the top, and has very little support on the way down. I am incredibly bearish on semiconductors here-I think virtually all semiconductors present solid short opportunities here. I think it likely goes much lower than my price target with time, but I'll reassess when it is lower.
SMH - TECH Welfare @ $282 Billion / $25B Tax Credit PerNancy and the Gang anxiously await the Senates Taxpayer handout to the Industry.
Po Nancy, $107 Million simply is not enough for her and Pablo the Shark Tank Drunk.
Nancy had to gobble $341K in losses on NVDA after exiting her 25K Shares in a loss due
to slime lights a shinning.
Bravo, add 3 zeros and it's all good.
Everyone should lose a hand.
Preferably, a head.
__________________________________________________________________________
They'll need to expedite this Grift Gift as China's warned off the Carrier Group as well
as Fancy - show up and it's going to be "A Dangerous Moment"... Nancy risks our young
men and women in the Navy with harm's way...
Don't give it a second thought.
Saddle up and please take the rest of the House and Senate with you.
Create a Threat to National Security... Risk Lives, Profit from it as a matter of course.
Shut up Hoi Polloi, we didn't ask you, we decide - you obey.
___________________________________________________________________________
The insiders in and outside the Beltway can't wait to get this Theft to the House and wrap
it up for August recess.
Qui Bono, you ask?
Intel, TSMC, and Texas Instruments - direct Jing.
Fabless chipmakers like Nvidia and AMD will not be left out in the cold. They will receive
"Scientific Grants out of the $230 Billion in free money for "Innovation."
It is quite likely the following Companies will join the Grift eventually:
Micron Technology Inc. (MU)
Amkor Technology Inc. (AMKR)
Camtek Ltd. (CAMT)
Analog Devices Inc. (ADI)
Although these ladies doth protest too much, it's an irresistible deal... free money.
We'll see $175B in Tax Credits gifted when everyone joins the Semi-Orgy.
You and me - we get the Bill @ $457 Billion.
Enjoy or do something.
ps. - IMF: Russian economy doing better than expected
Opened (Margin): SMH Sept 16th 192/260 Short Strangle... for a 4.97 credit.
Comments: Starting to add in some fresh September monthly setups in >50% IVR/>35% 30-day IV exchange-traded funds. Here, SMH is at 50.1/38.7.
4.97 credit on buying power effect of 22.74; 21.7% ROC at max as a function of buying power effect; 10.8% at 50% max. -.11/13.16 delta theta.
Swing long idea SMHHey all, I'm feeling a bullish bounce soon on semiconductors. This is a paper trade, I'm not actually taking it.
Closed (IRA): SMH August 19th 175 Short Put... for a .63 debit.
Comments: Filled this for 1.76 (See Post Below); out here at >50% max with 31 days to go. 1.13 ($113) profit.
$SMH Inverse Head & Shoulder?Looks like we may have an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern on $SMH Semiconductor ETF. Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
The end is not here, but it’s closerHello friends. Semiconductors are the new oil, but that's not a good thing. Semiconductors (and subsequently their stocks) have been rapidly rising due to massive global shortages. Like with every trend ever, emotional retail traders tend to assume that it will last for eternity, and rational observers of the market who have been here long enough know that it will in fact not last forever.
"Nothing gold can stay."
Shortages are an issue that markets have the function to resolve, both by crushing demand (Fed is doing this + high prices are also doing the same), and creating new supply faster (semi producers are doing this). Shortages are not usually a persistent problem, they are a temorary hiccup not unlike the 2020 Covid crash was.
Brandon Kulik: To me, if I was writing a headline, I’d say something like, “The end is not here, but it’s closer.” That’s how I’d represent it.
This dude has *decades* of experience in the semi industry. We listen when he talks. We take notes.
The interesting thing about how Kulik worded this, is that the EWT count of the chart tells the EXACT same story. The party isn't quite over yet. But it will be, soon. We are expecting to see a pullback in semis along with the broader market, which will flush out the glut of retail puts and allow for larger players to position themselves for the coming decline.
Another thing to keep an eye on is the average P/E ratio of this sector. Due to the bubble, it has risen to an eye-popping 32.94, which is probably a lot higher than it should be. Assuming we have a recession (81% chance this will happen in Q2 2022), this P/E ratio should compress to more like the 15 to 20X P/E range, which represents substantial downisde in price, not to mention downside in earnings.
Closing (IRA): SMH August 19th 150 Short Put... for a .62 debit.
Comments: Taking profit at >50% max. Opened for a 1.54 credit (See Post Below). Closing here for a .62 debit; .92 ($92) profit. Still have the August 19th 175's on.
$SMH Short Idea Semiconductors have been showing relative weakness as the Federal Reserve continues to execute QT. Higher interest rates have contracted stock prices and will most likely contract earnings within the next two quarters. The semiconductor sector is one that traded to what we can consider a bubble during the last two years; the market is no longer "risk on" as we can see by the damage that has been done to the bond market.
Technicals on $SMH provide a Head & Shoulder pattern on the weekly timeframe; the stock has already broken down from the neckline and has retested its respected weekly EMAs. Bearish traders can short this via leap put options or by selling short shares of $SMH or its holdings. Puts with strikes of 130 and 125 look attractive for October.
OptionsSwing Analyst
Daniel Betancourt
