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SMH trade ideas

SMH NVDA SPY & QQQ | Long Term Outlook Resistance Guide- SMH weaker than QQQ today potentially setting daily lower high but bears need more follow through at the moment - NVDA still potential 4h head and shoulders pattern if we confirm more downside - SPY very nearing 0.618 fib resistance we saw some money rotate from tech into SPY in the last two days making breath better - QQQ bull flag confirm still super strong every trend is healthy no closed just at the golden pocket resistance. Most likely scenario is weekly consolidation in the next coming weeks.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by ArcadiaTrading
SMH Weekly Update (post split)I'm updating my prior SMH weekly chart, since we had a 2 for 1 split in SMH last week and it totally messed my chart up. Key points (dates are all weekly): 3/27: 131.79 (most recent peak) 4/24: 118.57 ( most recent low) -10.03% off the peak 5/1 close: 124.38 -5.6% off the peak Gann confluence line 1: 121.71 -7.6% off peak Gann confluence line 2: 114.46 -13.1% off peak The green trend lines indicate an apex forming right along the Gann rays (salmon colored lines) suggesting a directional resolution is near. After extending to the purple point D, which is almost a 1.218 Gartley extension, support appears to be holding at the 121.71 Gann Confluence support line. This line is also the top ridge of the Ichimoku cloud which can also serve as support. Should SMH rise off this support, then we would have had a 7.6% correction off the most recent high. Should current support break down, we would see a target of Gann support 2 which is 114.46, or 13.1% off most recent peak. Pros for upside breakout: A possible rate cut currently being predicted by SOFR futures as early as June or July. Banking turmoil could also call for a pause or cut. A reduction in rates would also signal easier monetary conditions which would benefit growth oriented stocks for a near term spike. Pros for a breakdown: Further hawkishness in the FED, combined with Bank Solvency fears. Seasonality: from 2004 to 2023 the SMH has finished the month of June higher only 42% of the time, the worst month in the year. Observation: The 12 month RSI, while positive at 57.16, is declining from a near term double top, and showing some weakness in trend. I would watch for continuing weakness in SMH momentum on the daily chart, as well as the breadth inside the SMH holdings. You can do this with flipcharts on the Barchart.com site. Presently, while I see a few stalwarts, I am also seeing a lot of breakdowns inside the SMH ETF. For example, MCHP, a very well run company with solid financials, just reported good earnings beats, yet it sank below its 200 day MA and has a weak daily RSI(9) of 42.11. Personally, I would not long any semiconductors until late summer and signs of turmoil have resolved.
NASDAQ:SMH
by UnknownUnicorn13101
SMH - LONGAlright back into SMA today .. this is my second try . We have a few gaps on record for the bulls in this three bar break and today we pulled of a Wedge pop taking back our EMA's . We still have not overcome any minor highs though and are still below the downtrend line for this leg down .. Additionally we have FOMC rate decision out on the third so tomorrow is probably going to be muted and I am sure that in the next few days we will see some volatility like most FOMC meets seem to bring , especially in the decision day . I drew two scenarios of what might happen on the chart too , hoping to see us hold the emas and would be really nice to see the market overall go up vs reaction to FOMC decision . Net short levels across the board ( per SPY, QQQ , DJI, France 40 , and German 40 ) remain elevated and very net short. Also , COT futures data still showing very large imbalance of leveraged money committed to short bets . What I would live to see is for those leveraged traders to be dished out another leg up and provide us with some extra liquidity to solidify the next move up . Time will tell . The opposite could happen too . But I think that so far we have seem a lot of bad news that was bought and if we can make it through the next couple of days and not lose the current levels , there's good reason to support another move up in the markets . Also today we had 271 new highs vs 223 new lows , which might be a hint that breadth is improving , most days recently have had considerably more lows than highs , today could be a change of character with that.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NAK1987
SMH (Chip sector)SMH has been lagging behind the other tech sectors like XLC and XLK. As you can see it broke its rising wedge support and started correcting. You did that notice the drop if you focused on NVDA but if you look at TSM,AMD, and intc performance last 2 weeks of April you'll see where the selling came from. the thing about using the Sectors to trade, is you can see the sector about to break out or correct but you just don't know which stock in that sector will be the recipient of such a move. Here's an example. You see How XLK was at support here in a do or die situation (Green arrow)? And then wham, msft beats earnings 😆 Another example is XLC You see the big cup and handle ? And the surprise surprise META beats That leads me to this, SMH has back tested its breakout after falling out of a wedge and has now formed a bullish falling wedge. There's still alot of Redtape to get through though, SMH is the only tech sector below it's 21ema and 50sma . Will need to break over 250. AMD and Qcom both have earnings this week, who will be the recipient of a bullish breakout here? Things only get bearish here if SMH drops below 233
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by ContraryTrader
SMH Semiconductors update (weekly) Key areas to watch Semiconductors finally showing some topping pattern, amidst topping RSI (12) that failed to reach the high 70 channel and a shrinking trend of volume. In effect, weakening momentum. The first level is 244.71, which is a Gann confluence and also a prior pivot (left yellow circle), and is a 7.1% decline off the most recent peak of 263.57. This would take it to the top of the red cloud which could serve as some support. The second level to watch is 229.18 (right yellow circle) , which is another Gann Confluence, and also a prior pivot, which would be 13.04% off the peak of 263.57. This would take SMH well into the cloud, which could create some future resistance. Seasonality is at play, so I would expect a rebound in late summer, although there are many factors which could disrupt any projections any farther out and I do not feel worth making now.
NASDAQ:SMH
by UnknownUnicorn13101
SMH - It's not as bad as you think.....SMH closed today at 234.30, above the Ichimoku Cloud and well above the downtrend channel set from 2022 high to low (grey shaded area). SMH has clearly broken out of this channel, has successfully retested. I see next low at 232.40, which is a Gann confluence line, and then a move back upwards (point D). The reason I see a bounce is that the RSI is approaching oversold on the daily at the confluence line. Have we broken the bear downtrend? Looks like it to me. In order to resume the bear trend, we would at least need to drop at least to 175 (another Gann Confluence line), which would only take us to approximately the top of the down channel. That would be a 25.6% drop from today's close. If we want to continue the bear trend, then we would need to take out 166.97, the October low, which would be a 28.7% decline from today's close. Is it possible that we drop another 25 - 28% from here? Of course, anything is possible. However, I don't see it as probable, unless there is a BLACK SWAN event, which no one can predict in any event (by definition). I know that many semi companies have laid off employees, and taken their pill. So future earnings reports may exceed expectations, although product demand remains an uncertainty. But I don't see a 25% drop from here in Semis on organics alone.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by UnknownUnicorn13101