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Philadelphia Semiconductor Index

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SOX trade ideas

Semiconductors and the Long-Term TrendChip stocks have been climbing since early last year. Now, after a healthy pullback, some traders may look for the longer-term uptrend to continue. The first pattern on today’s chart of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is the rising 200-day simple moving average (SMA). SOX bounced at this SMA in late 2023 and again last month. The most recent price action suggests it may remain support. Second, August’s low occurred near April’s trough. The level was above any level seen in any previous year, which may suggest new support has been established in new record territory. Third, stochastics are rebounding from an oversold condition. Other similar moments, followed upside in price, are marked on the lower study. Next, some individual members of the space have potential patterns, aside from leader Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA . Micron Technology NASDAQ:MU could be forming a potential double bottom around $85. Applied Materials NASDAQ:AMAT has a similar formation around $175. Interestingly, both levels are slightly above their respective prices at the end of last year. Do these signal bullish reversals? TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NASDAQ:SOX
by TradeStation
$SOX "As Above So Below" (Warning; $NVDA $AVGO $VRT $TSM $SMH)3 Day Candle Sticks + Previous Reversal Pattern = Higher Pattern Credibility (Don't BLOW IT!) With NVDA "leading the way" down as well, I think we hit a "hurdle" and it will just take some selling + time before next and perhaps the finale leg up (GRAND FINALE #1929esq Blowoff Top) I may enter some NVDA 100Ps for 9/20 with this overall look for Semis ... @ 2.25 as of Close I think there will be a dip into OPEX and that dip should be bought towards later/end of month most likely (unless there's another 1 day panic flush like that other Monday...) #Algos are on a #STOPHUNT today and perhaps until 9/18ish, Mechanical selling NOT PANIC... for now -Prophecies PS: I dont think we get any major bounce until NASDAQ:SOX @ 4500 , I think its GUARANTEED to touch 4500 this month due to "Livermore Dynamics" ie 5000 crit level break down = 10% break down probable , 20% possible dont believe in the #DYNAMICS ? Check Chart in May when it broke to upside 5500 ie 10% hit ,,, 6000 ie 20% just missed ... NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AVGO NYSE:VRT NYSE:TSM NASDAQ:SMH Wouldn't be buying calls on these unless LONG DATED
NASDAQ:SOXShort
by Prophecies_R_Us
2
Chips Break Down and Banks Break OutThe second half of 2024 has begun, and some new trends may be emerging. Today’s idea compares the daily chart of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the weekly chart of the KWB Banking Index. NASDAQ:BKX The first pattern on SOX is the price action on July 10-11. A move to new record highs was followed by a bearish outside day. That false breakout may signal a reversal. The chip index next gapped lower and ended last week below its low from mid-June. Did a series of higher highs and higher lows end? Third, MACD was falling during the latest attempt at new highs. That “bearish divergence” is another potential reversal pattern. Finally, SOX crossed below the 21-day exponential moving average. Together, these signals may suggest that sellers are finally gaining an advantage over buyers in chip stocks. BKX, on the other hand, made new 52-week highs as SOX broke down. Notice the higher weekly lows and rally above its May peak. The index has now erased all its losses during the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023. These patterns could be especially meaningful given bigger changes with the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates. Recent quarterly reports have also suggested that bank lending has started to improve. There could also be more political risk facing chips into the U.S. Presidential election on November 5. Traders may want to heed these potential changes in case these patterns evolve into new trends into yearend. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NASDAQ:SOX
by TradeStation
Semiconductor Pullback Imminent?The semiconductor index has been one of the best performing areas of the market over the last few quaters, and has continued to be strong since the late October bottom. The index is coming into overhead fibonacci resistance, and with weakening momentum starting to show up, similar to July last year, a pullback here looks likely. It seems hard to imagine with all of the AI lead optimism, but this sector could see some retrace back to the 3100s to reset sentiment. If the indicated resistance region is broken, the next likely targets are substantially higher. Will be monitoring for a reversal pattern to emerge and confirm the time has come to exit longs and consider a short trade.
TVC:SOXShort
by CycleTargets
When Everyone is Long...Near Lows Close on All Major IndexesNasdaq 100 finished the day in the Red and minus 180 points from the high set in the first 5 minutes of trading The S&P500, Dow and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) finished positive, but near its lows for the day Longer Term: If we look at #1 on the chart it shows that SOX is up 45% from the October lows and is over 20% above its 200 EMA. The market can do any of these 3 at any time- 1)rally may continue or 2)we may consolidate for a while or 3) a pull back I think Monday Feb 26th will be an important day, because over the weekend big money will decide what it will do and by the end of the day we will all know. In any case, this is Red alert area, so be careful and Navigate with Care. OnlyTrade2Win.
NASDAQ:SOXShort
by onlytrade2win
Are the AI rallies ending? SMCI had its first big crash recently. The original 20% sell off wasn't that big a deal (IMO) but the follow through breaking of 800 was a big deal. If we were in a dip and rip market, 800 was a good continuation point. Coupled with this we have NVDA breaking first lines of trend continuation. A subtle signal which we'd be wise to not read too much into right now because weird things can happen with momentum but it's interesting we have this giving up of supports heading into earnings. Indices are also all under their local supports. And then we have major bear formations like this. Huge harmonic spike out pattern pending in SOX.
NASDAQ:SOXShort
by holeyprofit
SOX : Trendline to watch!!!!Trendline to watch!!!! Indeed, the “SOX” semiconductor index, known as a leading indicator, seems to be showing signs of weakness. Although it has returned to its uptrend line, we can still be wary of Wolfe waves which indicate a possible breakout. Not to mention that major components like “Intel” or “Nvidia” are either very high and overvalued (Nvidia), or have experienced a fairly phenomenal series of consecutive increases (Intel). Breaking the uptrend could be a negative signal for technology and especially for the market as a whole.
TVC:SOXShort
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
1
SOX Bearish Elliott Wave PatternSince the 07/31/23 peak SOX has declined in an Elliott Impulse pattern followed by a three wave corrective pattern which is so far a Single Zigzag. In the short-term its possible the rally could continue to the .618 retracement of the 07/31/23 to 08/18/23 decline. If this were to occur it would be a Double Zigzag correction. After completion of the Zigzag or Double Zigzag there's a high probability of a decline that goes below the bottom made on 08/18/23.
NASDAQ:SOXShort
by markrivest
2
The Chips Are DownSemiconductor stocks have slid this month, but some traders may be looking for a bounce. The first pattern on today’s chart of the Philadelphia Semiconductor index is the 2892 level. It was the close on February 22 that was tested and held twice in March. SOX briefly fell below it yesterday morning but rallied back to close above it. The result was a false breakdown and a hammer candlestick -- both of which can signal reversals. (The horizontal line is also near the December 13 high, which may suggest old resistance has become new support.) Next, the index has remained around the same area after falling sharply on Tuesday. Investors following the “three-day rule” of waiting after a drop could now feel more comfortable nibbling. Third, Thursday’s bounce occurred at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). That SMA could be important because it’s mostly tracked the longer-term trend since early 2022. Fourth, stochastics are trying to rebound from an oversold condition. Finally, the news flow may favor chips. Intel beat earnings estimates last night, and coming weeks will feature other names like Advanced Micro Devices (May 2) and Nvidia (May 24). TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
TVC:SOX
by TradeStation
When Chips Are Down, They Rebound Slowly But StronglyWhen Chips are down; invest if you can and hedge if you must. Having soared in 2020 & 2021, semiconductor shares tanked brutally as tremors from geopolitics, sinking consumer confidence and bloated inventory struck. Q4 overhang is dragging the industry down in the near term, which might have set a bearish outlook in the short-term, but times are changing. Structural forces and business cyclicality are now becoming robust tail winds for semiconductors, bringing a bullish outlook in the medium-to-long term for the sector. Therefore, this case study argues that an asynchronous time spread in CME E-Mini PHLX Semiconductor Sector Futures ("CME Semiconductor Futures") could potentially deliver a 2.8x reward to risk ratio by first taking a short position in futures expiring in March 2023 followed by a path-dependant long position in futures expiring in September 2023. INDUSTRY ON THE CUSP OF A SUPERCYCLE Chips everywhere. Semiconductors are ubiquitous as products become sophisticated. Rapid growth of mobile devices, emergence of EVs, and rising cloud adoption have created endless demand for higher processing speeds and larger memory. Chipmakers have benefited from this trend. Anticipated exponential growth in consumer durables, IoT, gaming, EVs, and AI/ML will translate into strong sustained demand for chips. Speaking at World Economic Forum, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella asserted that AI would go mainstream not in years but in months. Emergence of generative AI will form a fresh stream of demand for chips. EVs require twice as much chip content than traditional ones. Rising cloud usage will amplify demand from datacentres for graphics processing units (GPUs). In short, semiconductor industry is on the cusp of a demand super cycle. DEMYSTIFYING THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ("SOX") is a market capitalization-weighted index comprising of the top thirty (30) semiconductor firms listed in the US. Top names include Nvidia, TSMC, and ASML forming 48% of SOX. The top ten comprise 80% of the SOX. SOX rallied 202% from its low in March 2020 to its high in November 2021. As monetary policy shifted from QE to QT, SOX plunged 46% in 2022 touching its lowest level in October 2022. Since then, it has bounced back 43%, outperforming both NASDAQ-100 and S&P 500 which are up merely 10% during the same period. A CYCLICAL INDUSTRY Semiconductors industry is inherently cyclical given the considerable time lapse between spotting fresh demand and matching them with new supply. In a recent report, JP Morgan cited that semiconductor stocks are close to a cyclical bottom. Each time the industry hits a bottom, it recovers impressively. In one-year and three-years following a cyclical dip, shares in this sector spike 40% and 95% on average, respectively. While short term demand looks bleak on waning consumer confidence, the USD 600-billion industry's long-term prospect looks resolutely bright. LET THE AI WARS BEGIN Revolutionary AI: ChatGPT made its debut in November. It sprinted to a million users in just five days. The excitement in generative AI is palpable. It will revolutionise content generation while delivering vast productivity gains in others. Inflection ahead: AI is approaching an inflection point. Its usage is going mainstream. Expect tech giants to invest heavily to outcompete. If this marks the start of AI wars, the semiconductor firms that make AI work will harvest outsized profits. Shovel makers hit jackpot: During the gold rush, it was the shovel makers that got rich more so than the diggers. In this AI gold rush, the shovel makers (i.e., the semiconductor stocks) are set to reap enormous gains. Nvidia already shining: Nvidia is the market leader in GPUs whose parallel processing capabilities form the core for delivering AI. ChatGPT adoption alone could bring incremental revenues of up to USD 11 billion over the next year, Citigroup estimates. TSMC & ASML well positioned: Nvidia GPU production depends on two firms - (a) the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC), and (b) ASML Holdings (ASML). Berkshire stake in TSMC: TSMC recently announced stunning Q4 earnings. Its net sales grew 42.8% YoY, while its net profits & EPS were up 78% YoY contributing to an ROE of 26.4%. Little wonder that TSMC was one of Warren Buffett's recent investments where his firm acquired USD four billion of TSMC shares last November. ASML dominance: Meanwhile ASML commands a monopoly on key tech (Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography or EUV). EUV is used in producing cutting-edge nano chips that AI requires. ASML is set to secure a windfall on rising AI adoption. CHIPS ACT TO RESHORE PRODUCTION Supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic exposed the vulnerability of over-reliance on globalisation. Russia-Ukraine conflict caused adverse impact with Russia being a major supplier of Palladium and Ukraine being a key source of Neon gas. To reduce over-reliance in a key industry, US last year legislated the CHIPS Act which is aimed at reshoring production on US soil supported by more than USD 150 billion of grants and tax incentives. NO PAIN, NO GAIN IN A V-SHAPED PATH AHEAD Supply ramped-up but a little too late: Clogged supply chains plus demand spike during the pandemic fuelled chip shortage. Ramped up production which always takes a long lead time arrived but at a time of pale consumer demand (PC demand down 28% YoY) late last year. Frail consumer sentiment: Persistent inflation, recession fears, and uncertain outlook, meant lower consumer durable sales. This has slashed demand for semiconductors resulting in one of the largest inventory corrections in the industry. The sector is cooling faster and getting colder than expected. Firms face a tough market saddled with excess inventory compounded by frail end-markets except for automotives. Downgraded chips: Intel reported a loss for Q4 last year and expects a weak first half this year with return to growth in second half. Earnings from other industry majors point to significant headwinds. Analysts have downgraded several chip stocks. Fund flows in ETFs: Fund flows into and out of leveraged ETFs this year show investor activity is moving in tandem with these macro shifts. The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x ETF (3 times long exposure to SOX) suffered net outflows of $341 million while the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x ETF (3 times short exposure to SOX) gained net inflows of $1.1 billion. Insiders are Net Sellers: Insider Activity among majors show that they have been net sellers over the last three months except for Qualcomm, Intel and Applied Materials. Bullish Price Targets: In sharp contrast to this gloomy outlook, analysts covering the top stocks anticipate an average +15% price gain over the next 12-months. TRADE SET-UP This case study proposes a two-legged calendar spread as set out below. Each CME Semiconductor Futures contract provides exposure to twenty-five (25) index points approximating to USD 75,000 in notional with required margin of USD 5,900. TRADE LEG 1 : A short position in the contract expiring in March 2023 will provide exposure to the short-term correction. Entry: 2978 Target: 2571 Stop Loss: 3180 Profit At Target: $10,175 Loss At Stop: $5,050 TRADE LEG 2 : A long position in CME Semiconductor Futures expiring in September 2023 will provide exposure to recovery in the latter part of the year. Entry: 2710 Target: 3718 Stop Loss: 2410 Profit At Target: $25,200 Loss At Stop: $7,500 Aggregate Reward-Risk Ratio: 2.8x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
TVC:SOXLong
by mintdotfinance
2
SOX Update (weekly chart)SOX, as well as the broader XLK, has diverged somewhat from SPY, and remains stubbornly above the 52 week EMA. The red D point is a longer term Gartley target based on a 61.8% retrace from point C. However, it is still in an Ichimoku resistance area, and has potential to reverse. Key support areas are; 1) 2854 -2794 DOJI, and potential pivot area 2) 2848-2742 Blue Point B, a prior swing high and potential pivot area 3) 2838 Gann Confluence Point and potential support Should pivot areas 1) and 2) above fail, the final point to watch is the Gann Confluence around 2838. A fail below this point would be bearish. Also, an extended stay below the 52 week EMA would be bearish. Presently the chart sits above the longer term downtrend set from 1/22 high to 10//22 low and has a ways to go before that channel should continue.
NASDAQ:SOX
by UnknownUnicorn13101
1
SOX: March 2023Lots of requests for SOXL/SOXS. Finally did some math levels for it. No probability, but just looking at the chart setup here and overlaying the math monthly levels this is what it looks like to me. Looks like a bearish bird that is flagging. I would be looking for this to break the current flag structure down to the red box (target area). We also completely bypassed the monthly high levels. Hoping to see this continue to reject upside tomorrow and confirm a break of the flag structure down to the math low range on the month. Just my quick thoughts, not advice. Safe trades everyone!
TVC:SOX
by Steversteves
2
SOX Update (daily chart)SOX has been diverging from SPY last couple of days, which is unusual. SOX had 50/200 EMA xover Friday. SOX is extended, could pull back to prior swing high at 2913 (-3.25%) where there is good support. Watch these tech stocks with earnings coming up next 10 days, all daily charts look bullish (except CSCO, which is debatable). All also have positive point & figure price targets (from Stockcharts.com). ADI (2/15), ADSK (2/13), AMAT(2/16), ANET (2/13), CDNS (2/13), CSCO(2/15), KEYS (2/21), NVDA(2/22). RSI(9) has been trending up since 1/9. As long as daily RSI(9) stays above 50%, trend may continue.
NASDAQ:SOXLong
by UnknownUnicorn13101