$TLTThis is the monthly chart of TLT dating back to inception. That blue channel predates the GFC and in my mind is an area of value for obtaining a return on risk through the monthly dividend. Nothing fancy, just a decent return using a liquid ETF.
TLT trade ideas
Why I think TLT is still a buyThe Fed fund rate has dropped 0.5%. Why hasn't bonds went up?
-The fear is inflation will rise again and thus requiring the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to combat inflation. Have we seen this before?
-News from 9/18/2007
www.nbcnews.com
The Federal Reserve Tuesday surprised financial markets with an aggressive half-point cut in a key lending rate, lowering borrowing costs for businesses and consumers in response to a housing downturn that threatens to spread to the broader economy.
Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year, but the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction and to restrain economic growth more generally. Today’s action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time.
Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year. However, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
-This is not to say that there isn't a possibility that inflation will rise, but it is notable that the fear was similar. The Fed has stated that they intend to lower interest rates to between 3-3.5%. We are currently at 5%.
" FOMC policymakers' own estimates of where short-term rates will be in December 2025 is, on average, a little more than 3%, with a median forecast of 3.4%. That forecast was updated at the FOMC's last meeting on September 18."
-Assuming the Fed is telling the truth and plans to lower rates to 3-3.5%. Bonds should reflect that. Sooner or later..
-Showing how we can use 1-US10Y as a base to understand TLT on a longer time basis as TLT only goes back to 2002. Even if TLT is longer term bonds vs 10y yields
-Yields trend with fed fund rates, but it can front run or lag as it is still based on the market's opinion on what the future holds.
-From a technical perspective. Chart patterns of yields closely resemble 1982.
-2024 TLT vs 1982 1-US10Y
-Bonds and stocks are not 100% correlated, but in the event of a stock crash - the Fed will lower interest rates to help the economy and thus increasing bonds. Nasdaq looks familiar technically as sudden sharp downward move and then met with an uptrend into liquidity but met with exhaustion candles. No one knows if/when a crash will come, but the takeaway is that there are many indicators/fundamentals/chart patterns/whatever have you that are lining up at the same time.
TLT bullish Looks like it will go exactly to the backtest lining up with fib level. From there ill ride the complete wave down.
TLT UpWhy am I still expecting TLT to rise?
Let’s start with the fundamental reasons.
After the election, when we focus on Trump’s four main economic directions, it’s hard to think anything other than that we’re in for inflation growth, an increase in interest rates, and so on.
Specifically:
1. A 10-20% tariff on imported goods, and a sudden 60% on goods imported from China. This naturally points to price increases for goods, and we’ve already seen this kind of policy back in 2016. However, in the past eight years, many geopolitical perceptions have changed, and the US position in the global market is substantially different from what it was eight years ago. Some restrictions on certain types of goods might be possible, but applying tariffs across all goods? - I don’t believe so.
2. Income tax reduction. What does this mean? Yes, it’s a realistic but very low-weighted plan. In line with populism, there will be a reduction in taxes, but it can hardly have a significant impact on the overall US budget deficit.
3. Deporting immigrants. To some extent, it will have a minimal effect on the labor market. It’s important to note that immigrants’ labor is not generally secured within the US labor market anyway, and it’s unlikely that US residents would have greatly expanded opportunities in their place.
4. Growth in energy production volumes. It would be redundant to write long paragraphs on how this will have a positive impact on prices.
These four points sum up the populist promises. In another reality, the US Federal Reserve is successfully battling inflation; abnormally high rates only harm issuers, while European spreads are reaching historical highs. After the 1980s, Bond Vigilantes might be set for a return, which would pose significant problems for US Treasuries.
We’re waiting for the Fed’s press conference today.
$TLT WaitingI like NASDAQ:TLT down here. I'm looking for lower prices to add to my position from the Blue channel. This could end up being my largest position. Not yet though.
TLT BONDS US10Y US30Yplayed to perfection, now for price to keep moving up, it should recover the the uptrend
TLT - head and sholdersThe iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is experiencing downward pressure, and a head and shoulders pattern in its technical chart suggests further potential declines. This formation, indicating a shift from an uptrend to a downtrend, is being reinforced by several factors:
1. **Rising Treasury Yields**: Higher yields, especially on 10-year Treasury bonds, reduce the appeal of long-duration bonds, causing TLT's value to drop as yields increase.
2. **Strong Economic Data**: Robust economic indicators, including strong GDP growth and low unemployment, have heightened expectations of future rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which dampens long-term bond prices.
3. **Political Developments**: Potential spending cuts or fiscal adjustments under a changing administration are influencing market dynamics, contributing to the rise in yields and the downward trend in TLT.
This combination of technical patterns, economic conditions, and political considerations supports a bearish outlook for TLT, which could benefit short positions in the near term.
TLT Flipping ResistanceIn my last post I discussed TLT as a great trade based on a technical basis and also confluent the macro-economic picture. With Trump as the new elect president, it is interesting that the narrative of a flare-up in inflation has not skyed yields and TLT recovers from a nice drop to 90$.
Here I am showing the last 2 times where TLT bottomed and then rallied. Each period of time took about 60 days give or take a few to thrust up through resistance. I believe we are experiencing a similar bottoming process now. There is a good chance that we receive some more opportunities to accumulate shares and leaps near 90$ again.
Flipping Resistance: As you can see, I have some trendlines drawn that seem to be boxing price in and out of certain areas. I believe we will see a flipping of this diagonal down resistance line and TLT move to the upside to test some horizontal resistance in the 100-105$ area.
Quotes from the great theologian Martin Luther:
"Every man must do two things alone; he must do his own believing and his own dying."
"All who call on God in true faith, earnestly from the heart, will certainly be heard, and will receive what they have asked and desired"
"Is it not a thing most abominable, that God who feeds so many mouths, should be held in such low esteem by me, that I will not trust him to feed me? Yea, that a guilder, thirty-eight cents, should be valued more highly than God, who pours out his treasures everywhere in rich profusion. For the world is full of God and his works. He is everywhere present with his gifts, and yet we will not trust in him, nor accept his visitation."
Hebrews 11:1
Now faith is confidence in what we hope for and assurance about what we do not see .
TLT - Golden CrossThe Golden Cross is the Creme de Crop when it comes to longer minded individuals.
I'm liking this 20Y bond ETF for the reasons listed on the chart.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Mark 8:36 - For what does it profit a man to gain the whole world and forfeit his soul?
Acts 4:11-12 - This Jesus is the stone that was rejected by you, the builders, which has become the cornerstone. And there is salvation in no one else, for there is no other name under heaven given among men by which we must be saved.”
TLT LONGThis needs a couple more months but watching this ascending triangle form to buy dips for continuation
Needs until 2025 to play out.
Looking to buy dips to 94, with a stop loss at 90 and a target of 105 and 119.58.
TLT (Debt Supply) Goes Up With Federal Borrowing (Debt Demand)Here's your edge: the TLT blasts off when Government borrowing blasts off, a simple case of supply and demand.
The Federal Government borrowed 2.2 Trillion USD in the last 12 months, data that has been added to Bloomberg Terminals but not here on Tradingview or on FRED. I bring you a piece of the cake, friends.
SOURCE: x.com
TLT bullishLooks like its forming some triangle. Well, if it breaks out we will head for the backtest. But stoploss below last low.
Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Tumble with -15% crash ??On the above monthly chart price action has seen a nice 25% rise since November 2023. A number or reasons now exist to be bearish.
Incidentally, with all the recently published ideas on Tradingview, Without Worries appears to be the only one who is bearish.
The reasons?
1) Broken market structure confirmation.
2) Active price action resistance.
3) Rising wedge. A breakdown confirmation will see price action correct 17%.
4) $76 is the next support level, which is incidentally the measured move forecast by the bearish wedge identified in (3).
Is it possible price action continues to rise as most of Tradingview is calling for? Sure
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Huge inverted head and shoulders in bonds.I don't track bonds all that much, but as a general rule when I see scores of people all talking about the same thing (Which they do not normally talk about), I suspect that idea might have gotten too popular for its own good and look to see if there are any obvious fade patterns.
I looked at TLT a while ago and seen the possible head and shoulders. Have just been waiting for a suitable capitulation to support to enter.
Long now.
TLT - Risk Off Is Dead (For Now At Least)As risk on gravy train continues post FED interest rate cut 🚞, it is certainly worth noting that risk off bonds are becoming significantly bearish.
Notice that TLT 20 year bond ETF has seen a significant failure printing a 3 wave pattern with a slightly higher high to then collapse back down.
Also notice that it is a failure through the 20 month MA.
And this is printing a very bearish Evening Star Pattern.
I say "very" because the current candle is printing a significant bearish engulf of previous bullish candles.
Overall this is a very bearish look and I think this has a reasonable chance of re-testing the lows to print a Wyckoff ST Secondary Test.
Its not impossible that there could be another wave down if US government debt falls further out of market favour.
That is less likely I would suggest but never say never 🧐.
Not advice
TLT Monthly Candle TLT monthly candle matches the trend perfectly and is exactly at multiple strategic supports. This sort of perfection usually only occurs when the trend is long determined and the asset is simply dotting eyes and crossing tees on its way to a predetermined destination.
TLT/TLT5 Indicates TLT BBOTThe current value of the ratio of TLT to its leveraged product is equal to the monthly closes of the last two blast off points, resulting in 16% and 20% rallies within 2-5 months.
TLT Double B O T (BBOT Bond Blast Off Time)TLT at every support including the daily RSI. BBOT. Bond Blast Off Time.
Opening (IRA): TLT December 20th 88 Covered Call... for a 86.84 debit.
Comments: High IVR at 74.8% plus weakness.
Looking to grab both the November 1st and December 1st dividends here while I twiddle my thumbs waiting for the general election to pass, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 86.84
Max Profit (Excluding Dividends): 1.16
Max Profit (With Dividends): 1.80
ROC at Max Excluding Dividends: 1.34%
ROC at Max (With Dividends): 2.07%
Immediately post-fill, I put in a GTC order to take profit at .20 short of max or 87.80, but may take if off after the December dividend drops if something more "sexy" gives me that come hither look.
TLT +50% Every Time This Happens and It's Happening NowTLT/SPX Monthly RSI (8 Period Close)
It makes sense to analyze the most common institutional portfolio allocation (Equities and Bonds) rather than Equities or Bonds separately. Most investors focus on Fed Funds, unemployment, the business cycle, rates, to analyze the bond market. But those metrics are poorly correlated to returns at best. When you focus on allocation, as in Bonds plus Equities, you start making some progress. That's exactly what this chart represents; where the money is going and when. Hint: it's going into Bonds. Soon.
BBOT (Bonds Blast Off Time) is here
