TLT Retest of $90, Fed lost ControlBearish Flag formation to be resolved in ~ 3-6 months, as Fed sets a stage for FedNow and CBDC via a control demolition of regional banks (Asset Liability Mismatch) to the benefit TBTF banks.
TLT trade ideas
The Day Ahead: GDXJ, FXI, EWZ, GDX Premium SellingIt's Friday, and the last trading day of September ... .
Here's what's at the top of my IV screener in the exchange-traded fund space:
TQQQ, IVR/IV 23.3/64.2%
GDXJ, 22.7/36.4% (2.52% yield)
FXI, 12.5/33.4% (2.26% yield)
EWZ, 11.1/31.9% (10.9% yield)
GDX, 26.0/31.5% (2.23% yield)
You'll notice that everything is still pretty much in the lower one-quarter of the IV range over the past 52 weeks, but there are a few instruments have popped above 30% 30-day. If you're big on divvies, EWZ stands out, but one potential drawback for some may be that it only distributes biannually in June and December.
In the broad market exchange-traded fund space:
QQQ, IVR/IV 22.2/22.3% with the shortest duration <16 delta strike that pays 1% of the strike price in the December 15th (the 321, paying 3.30 at the mid)
IWM, 21.6/20.8%, with the shortest duration <16 delta strike that pays 1% of the strike price in the December 15th (the 162, paying 1.72)
SPY, 22.1/17.1%, with the shortest duration <16 delta strike that pays 1% of the strike price in the January 19th contract (the 385, paying 3.91).
You can naturally opt for shorter duration and be more aggressive with your delta, with the trade-off being that you may end up being assigned shares more frequently or have to manage in-the-money's via roll, which is not the funnest way to manage a tested short put, depending how deep in-the-money it is. (I'm talking mostly about what I do strategically in my retirement account, which is short put/acquire/cover or "wheel").
Me Personally ... .
I pretty much mechanically put on the shortest duration <16 delta strikes paying around 1% in broad market (IWM, QQQ, SPY) on a weekly basis, so am going to do that today, assuming I don't already have rungs camped out where I'd want to pitch my tent with a secondary consideration being whether the contract represents a better strike than what I've currently got on.
And, in spite of the short term pain I'm experiencing in my attempt to acquire TLT shares at these levels, I'll probably also add in a rung (or two), since I have a maximal buying power that I want to devote to that position, and I'm not there yet. The probable result at the moment is that I will be assigned various lots at various strikes and will have to cover (i.e., sell call against) at various durations, some of which may be quite long-dated with my current highest strike at the 94 (in the November 17th) and the lowest at the 84 (in the December 15th). Naturally, were I to have followed my initial plan as to when I wanted to start picking up shares, (See Post Below), I would be "less red" ... .
15+ Years Worth of Gains Gone - TLT ETFFinancial markets prove people wrong over and over. I guess that's the point - trick as many people as possible into taking their money.
For example, investing in Treasury Bonds has always been seen as a relatively safe & stable way to grow wealth. Some people have found that ETFs in Treasuries offer that.
Well, the chart above sort of changes that perspective, eh?
While the rest of my post will explain the basics, like what happened and what we can learn, I actually do think this might be an interesting bounce play. Thus, I am watching it for a swing trade off the lows! Support line, anyone? Let's see.
Now onward...
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ( NASDAQ:TLT ) has been a go-to choice to gain exposure to Treasury bonds over many years now. However, recent events have erased nearly 15 years worth of gains.
And it did not take long at all.
The culprit behind TLT's recent woes is the rise in interest rates. When interest rates go up, the value of existing bonds tends to go down. As the Federal Reserve decided to increase rates to combat inflation, TLT investors found themselves holding the bag.
The good news is that they'll still collect a good dividend over time, but for now, that's damage done to the core principle.
Want to hear a joke? Okay...
Why did the TLT ETF go to therapy?
Because it couldn't handle its ups and downs anymore!
Jokes aside, the TLT turmoil serves as a stark reminder that even seemingly safe investments can turn sour quickly.
Here are some key takeaways:
Interest Rate Risk: As we've seen with TLT, interest rate movements can have a significant impact on bond investments. When rates rise, bond prices fall.
Market Uncertainty: The markets are inherently uncertain.
Risk Management: Setting stop-loss orders or regularly rebalancing your portfolio can help mitigate losses.
Let's see what happens next.
I have NO position currently.
TLT still selling offSharing fib downside levels to be aware of.
This starts out with a Fib extension tool starting from Dev 07, 2021
Here are the 3 prices if you want to place on your chart.
$155.12
$152.52
$151.47
If we break 93.88, look for more downward pressure toward $90.44. This price may be a turning point. It's very common for price to reversal(for a short time) at 50% between 2 fib levels.
Also, notice that I've placed the fib retracement tool between 2 fib levels from the fib extension tool. If you are a believer in fib, this is very handy as you can observe.
When/if price starts declining, it should move fast as we've gone sideways for a long time. A long sideways move usually leads to a large move in price
TLT's New All Time Lows!!! Rocket from hereTLT did not fall too far but my TMF position was recked from its $5.80 average. Word on the street is that a bunch of retail investors were buying TMF while TLT was in the 90s and 100s so now it is time to wait for the US to buy bonds because they won't be able to pay out this high of yeilds.
Gold/Miners and Bonds are our savior right now until the recession (shallow or deep) happens. After that its back to CRYPTOCAP:BTC CRYPTOCAP:ETH CRYPTOCAP:ADA
$tlt Bullish RSI Divergence on Weekly?? Everyone is bearish. Very oversold and sitting on major support. Could rally 5-7% pretty easy.
TLT: Breakout of the range up.Long entry variants for TLT in anticipation of a change in the Fed's monetary policy. The scenario is too likely, so there are no good payouts on TLT options.
TLT A MAJOR LOW IS NEAR 91 target The chart posted is that of TLT first target to end is 91/87.25 . How do I come to this target is based on fib relationships the peak 179.7 dropped to end the 1 wave 133 that drop was 46.6 pts 46.6 x .618 = 28.79 . the drop of 46.6 on a pct basis = 25 % 25 % x .618 =16 % wave 4 was the contracting triangle wave E ended at 103.95 x 16 % =16.6 pts - 103.95= wave 5 if on a log scale wave 5 is .618 of wave 1 as wave 3 was a clear extension . wave 5 is and can be .618 of wave 1 or equal if wave 3 has been extended this gives a target 91/87.25 to end the 5 waves down . therefore I will call an end of the bear market in tlt bond market is nearing .
TLTHi , everybody Look at TLT chart that is ETF you know , I think it is gonna be really close to best buying level .....buy little by little it gives you massive profit next years .......especially if you are in united state dont miss that .....if anyone is from united state of my followers comment below and share your opinion about this ......Thanks
Gooood Luuuuuuuck
TLT TLT is looking like a 10% opportunity.
Starting a position in the $89 range.
will add if drops lower.
Profit target is $98 range.
#TLT Trading The Weekly Wave 5IN this update we review the recent price action in the TLT ETF and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objective to target
PAST PERFORMANCE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
TLTThis is a continuation of the US20Y idea...
The MACD shows a divergency and the RSI and Stoch are oversold.
The price is outside of the uptrend and this is a possible double bottom.
How would you trade this chart in the next 13 weeks?Before answering the question please read this quote:
“We know the past but cannot control it. We control the future but cannot know it.”
(Claude Shannon)
Claude Shannon's quote "We know the past but cannot control it. We control the future but cannot know it" is a profound statement about the nature of time and our relationship to it.
The past is fixed and immutable. We can learn from it, but we cannot change it. The future, on the other hand, is open-ended and uncertain. We can make plans and take action, but we cannot know for sure what will happen.
This duality between the past and the future can be seen in many aspects of our lives. For example, we can learn from the mistakes of the past, but we cannot change those mistakes. We can make plans for the future, but we cannot know for sure if those plans will come to fruition.
Shannon's quote is a reminder that we are limited in our ability to control both the past and the future. However, it also suggests that we can still learn and grow from both. By understanding the past, we can make better choices in the future. And by taking action in the present, we can shape the future in our own way.
Here are some of the implications of Shannon's quote:
We should not dwell on the past, as we cannot change it. Instead, we should learn from it and move on.
We should not be afraid of the future, as we cannot know it. Instead, we should make plans and take action to shape the future in our own way.
We should live in the present moment, as this is the only time we have any control over it.
I will provide my answer soon!
thinking about this chart will give you the opportunity to find solutions to deal with uncertain situations!
Reverse Triangle (ABCD) set up, D leg of the bullish CypherLooking at the Monthly Chart of the TLT 20yr bond etf. I see a large ABCD Pattern Set up. The Initial Triangle has not completed. Currently there is heavy selling in Bonds (C leg sell off to D leg of the bullish cypher) The Trend Line was breached, and now the sell off is acting like a Magnet to retest 2008 lows.
It's worth noting this sell off appears to be A bullish Cypher pattern set up Around D leg. This set up is also tie to the USA real estate market. Based on the 18 year real estate theory, we're only 13 years removed from the 2009 financial market lows. Also based on the 18yr real estate theory, I see a project crash around 2027-2028. Which is likely due to a property tax crisis.
At the bottom of the chart you'll see the Stochastic has already bottom, however the AD is still in overbought territory. You want to be buying when both the AD and the stoch are bottom together like in 2008-2009 (see white box).. Dollar cost averaging into the 20yr bond etf is not a bad idea either. With Bond yields currently over 4% and likely to reach 6%-7% before the TLT finally bottoms is a good hedge. I also like the fact in the future, I can write cover calls against this position, which will lower my cost basis even more in the future.
I'm not looking to short bonds here, i'm a long term buyer of the dips with a breach of $90... price action could take this below $84, possible $78 but $84 is my target based on the last recession in 2008. Dollar Cost Avg for the win long term for the next 20yrs
TLT it's the thing that gets the thing to another thing... where it all begins and ends ... Rinse and Repeat forever
TLT: waiting a long time. Is it time to buy?One more Fed hike this year and after that bond market will hopefully settle down. When rate cuts start to happen, stock market will most like take a nosedive and a better home for the capital will he right here at TLT. In between now and then I am planning to start accumulating little bit at time bottom fishing some lows, but not too much. TLT is dangerously close to getting bottom fall off. Below about $80.5, it may tank another 30%. So little bit here and there is the way to go right now with options hedge. Fed might keep hiking to infinity destroying US economy and bonds along the way. TLT will not be a good place in that case...
Technical areas: right now will look for a bounce to $ 95- $97. Above $99 there is a good change that the low is in. Otherwise will look for one more lower low to between $87 - $85 area. That is when I will put some more capital in. Below $80 it is game over, sell all, wait and see.
Opening (IRA): TLT November 3rd 88 Short Put... for an .88 credit.
Comments: Targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit in the shortest duration contract around 45 days until expiration, looking to pick up shares via assignment in this general area of weakness.
TLTWeekly is teetering on closing in oversold territory again, which is NOT bullish. Last time RSI closed below 30 (blue arrows), price declined the next 5 weeks in a row (aka interest rates rose 5 weeks in a row). Still a few hours left in the week but I won't be holding my breath for a meaningful reversal before the close.
Bullish butterfly in TLT Have a friend who's been asking me for 6 months if it's a good time to go long bonds and consistently I've said it looks early.
But if there's going to be a time to go long bonds, I think now is the time. Stops a bit under the current lows
Opening (IRA): TLT November 17th 90 Short Put... for a .95 credit.
Comments: Squeezing in a short put in the November expiry at the 90 strike. Here, I'm actually looking to pick up shares, so am being more aggressive than I would ordinarily be, with the 90 camped out at the 27 delta.
Opening (IRA): TLT October 27th 91 Short Put... for a .96 credit.
Comments: Adding on weakness, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit in the contract nearest 45 days duration.
This is more aggressive than I usually do, since it's at the 30 delta, but I'm looking to pick up shares at or around these lows if at all possible. Because of this, I'll look to run these right up until expiry and/or take them off for "approaching worthless"; I immediately stuck an order in to close it if it gets to .05.
If I get assigned, I'll look to cover with short call.
