Bonds in the week ahead look for TLT to rally now back to 103.1The chart posted is that of the TLT we seem to have made another wave B low I would look to see it now hold and rally back to 103.1 this week by wavetimer113
Opening (IRA): TLT December 15th 91 Short Put... for an .86 credit. Comments: Laddering out at better strikes than I've got on currently, targeting the 16 delta strike, wherever that lies. I doubt the underlying goes this low, but if it does, I'm fine with taking assignment of shares and selling call against.Longby NaughtyPines0
Opening (IRA): TLT November 17th 92 Short Put... for a .79 credit. Comments: Hitting on some of those treasuries ... . Targeting the 16 delta strike. I'm fine with either getting assigned shares and proceeding to sell call against or taking the risk premium and going home. Longby NaughtyPines0
TLT Short term Treasuries Bullish LONGTLT as shown on a 30 minute chart shows TLT in a narrow range last week and then a pivot down to begin this week followed by a downtrend and a small correction until then the fed news of the rate hike came out. Today the general market dropped after some federal financial data came out and a treasury auction was a dud bond auction with little transactions occurring confounded by Bank of Japan actions inconsistent with the path of the US Fed. The mass index indicator has signaled a reversal as the signal rose above the reversal zone and then dropped below the zone thus triggering. The Relative Trend Index documents the end of the red downtrend with the signal line nearly returning above zero. Overall, I think TLT traders overreacted to the federal news and the catalyst from Japan. I believe this to be a good point to enter long using the pivot low as the stop loss. Targets are 100.5 just below the mean anchored VWAP and 101.5 just below POCl line volume area of the intermediate term volume profile. This offers modest potential profile for a relatively low risk. However, I intend to trade this intraday as a same day expiration (0DTE) option striking 101. I will set a set a stop-loss on the option of 15% while expecting potentially 50-200% ROI making for an acceptable ratio.Longby AwesomeAvani2
TLT 2H 2023Keeping an eye on TLT, considering the way treasury yields have been moving. This could get ugly. by cmerged0
TLT - is now the time to start accumulating?Long duration treasury ETF's have long been touted as hedges against risk and inflation. However, treasury prices and rates have an inverse relationship. When the US Treasury issues new bonds during a rate hiking cycle, it depresses the prices of the long duration treasuries within these ETFs. Conversely, when rates reach their peak and subsequently start to decline, these ETFs will hold treasuries with higher rates than the newly issued ones. This explains why we see TLT price increasing in a low rate environment and decreasing in a rising rate environment. If we are near the conclusion of this rate hiking cycle we should see a little more consolidation in TLT, followed by price increase. I have been and will continue to add to my position anytime we are close to $100 during this consolidation. I'll begin to take profit $112-114 and then re-evaluation market conditions. Longby Ben_1148x2335
Opening (IRA): TLT December 15th 94 Short Put... for a .89/contract credit. Comments: Here, targeting the 16 delta strike in the 20 year+ paper exchange-traded fund to round out short put rungs in the third quarter. I may continue adding rungs into 2024 if the underlying continues to hang around this level, since the Fed is supposedly forecast to cut rates at some point going forward.Longby NaughtyPines4
If we take the 200 we're goodIf we overtake the 200 day moving average and that $103 level we could push to the $109's. I'm really not worried about hikes as we priced in another one and no more are expected by the mass amounts of economists inflation is at 3%, let's see if it stays there bc of base affects. Looking for the upside move, the Yuan and Yen are also point of this trade that support it's upside. Also the UK Gilt market. I'm confident in this, we also just got a week jobs report maybe that continues. Target for me is $115 - $120Longby nah0221
Biggest most amazing short squeeze TLTThe iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years.Longby space_bear112
Opening (IRA): TLT September 15th 90 Short Put.... for a .73 credit. Comments: The third rung of a TLT short put ladder. Will look to add at better strikes should we get additional weakness. Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 440
Bonds Bull Flag?You can ignore my arrow prediction but just for fun let's see how correlated it is. But what we see here is that the NASDAQ:TLT broke below its triangle and now seems to be reversing after a cool CPI print. It seems to have make a bull flag and big consolidation range that I drew out in those purple lines. Let's see if the bond market can continue with the bullish moves as it does make sense due to the way that the rate decisions have been priced in. IMO one more hike then cuts next year and 2019 level rates by end of 2025. NASDAQ:TLT can get to $115-$120 by May-July 2024 Exciting stuff let's see.Longby nah00
TLT major support 98 and whyThe chart posted is the last bullish possible wave structure . within the sideways movement since oct cycles We are setting up for a MAJOR PANIC INTO AUG 25th and a lower low in oct 10 week trade with this in mindby wavetimer774
One of the most beautiful charts $TLT Wow what a beautiful chart. Almost done with a full market cycle. You may know this as a "dead cat bounce" or the "ANGER" part of the cycle... lol.... but we haven't even hit depression!? woooooo lol. What this indicates is that ole Jerome Powell boy isnt done raising rates..... and he is for sure going to keep them higher for longer... the next couple of years according to timing on this chart. "higher for longer" Self explanatory chart.... just a thing of beautyShortby GoldenCrowley3
Opening (IRA): TLT August 18th 92 Short Put... for a .68 credit. Comments: The second rung of a TLT short put ladder ... . Selling around the 16 delta strike here.Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 2
Opening (IRA): TLT November 17th 94 Short Put... for a .75 credit. Comments: Continuing to build out rungs in 20-year plus maturity paper, targeting the 16 delta strike to emulate an equities/bond mix in my portfolio using short puts, particularly since TLT 30-day is actually greater than that in SPY (15.1% for the former; 13.0% for the latter). As usual, I'm fine with taking assignment of shares at this level and then proceeding to "cover" (i.e., sell call against) if that happens.Longby NaughtyPines2
Bong, Long BondI've got my eye on you Mr Bond. Zero slope MA nearly flat. Containment MA just turned 1, where I start getting interested. We will see if this week gives us action or maybe not til the Friday number. We will see.Longby MAgicTrxUpdated 4
Opening (IRA): TLT July 19th 94 Short Put... for .60 credit. Comments: With 30-day IV higher than in SPY, selling some premium in 20-year maturity paper, targeting the 16 delta strike, with the plan being to build out a multi-rung ladder.Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 1
Treasuries on track for a crash in H2'23. 10Y above 10%.The triangle within wave 4 has ended. Either today, or on May 3rd. What will happen next has never happened before. The crash in Treasuries in extended wave 5 is scheduled for H2 - the time when 10Y will definitely hit above 10%, dragging the entire market as low as SPX 1000...1500. The closest analogy to the coming crash is 1929. But remember - the crash of 1929 was just a correction within a 100-year long trend, which finally ended on Jan 4th this year. The coming crash will be one fractal level higher: it will be part of the correction to the entire 100-year long bull market in the US.Shortby AndyM663
Opening (IRA): TLT July 21st 92 Short Put... for a .63 credit. Comments: With 20 year+ maturity paper 30-day IV greater than that of SPY, adding a smidge to my position here at better strikes (but still around 16 delta) than what I currently have on. As with my broad market positions in IWM, QQQ, and SPY, looking to emulate dollar cost averaging into long-dated treasuries here without actually hanging out in stock.Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 3
TLT moving averagesThis chart of TLT the long term US treasury bond ETF uses moving averages to attempt to see potential support and resistance. This uses 10 month, 200 day, 100 day and 20 day. My interpretation of this chart is bearish and potentially a good place to short it.by MrAndroid0
Update On Interest RatesRate Update! The United States, being the world's largest economy, often sets the tone for global interest rate trends. The Federal Reserve, the country's central bank, has been carefully monitoring economic indicators and inflationary pressures. Recent data have shown signs of rising inflation, prompting the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance. While no immediate rate hikes have been implemented, market participants anticipate that the Fed may increase rates in the near future to curb inflation and maintain price stability.02:23by PayItForwardLending0
TLTAfter breaking down out of the triangle, price is now retracing to the 0.618 of the recent down move as well as AVWAP from the 52 week low. I like puts at this price.Shortby Essendy0