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TLT trade ideas

The Epic Bond Capitulation - Where's The Bottom?Hooo boy, all those fund managers who were telling people to go balls to the walls on bonds earlier this year assuming interest rates would be lowered were truly addicted to the era of easy money. Some people have lost a lot recently. And it seems people are trying to now catch the falling knife (including myself, as I will explain). In the above charts, you can see a popular long term bond ETF on the left (TLT), and long term bond yields on the right, inverted. The reason I inverted bond yields is so we can see more easily how the charts correlate. Looking at these two charts side by side, one can make a guess as to when bond prices may begin to find support. Right around here is a solid long term zone - but there is indeed room for TLT to drop into the mid-high 70's, or even the 60's if yields head towards 9-10%. Traders should be prepared for that. Yields may indeed continue to push upwards past 5%. The U.S. economy can handle high interest rates. It's just that this is not what we're used to. It's also not necessarily true that a crash MUST happen soon, even considering I have been bearish on traditional markets for the last few years. But maybe that COVID crash was really it, at least for now. Sure, the amount of consumer and national debt is concerningly high. I don't think anyone would be surprised if the market had a huge meltdown, given current economic conditions. Under current circumstances, the likelihood of a black swan market event only increases. However, people would probably be surprised if it did extraordinarily well, and if bond yields continued way up. This is what's often called, "Climbing a Wall of Worry." There were indeed periods when yields were above 9% and the market still grew. We're just not used to it, so all this repricing must occur. And it's quite the shock. It's hard to parse out exactly what's going on. But it's possible we are about to finally see "authentic" growth from the stock market, meaning that it increases DESPITE tightening monetary policy. This is actually healthier market growth. In the midst of this, we'd also ideally like to see improved infrastructure and pay increases. Now of course, if SPX heads below the recent lows, markets could be in trouble, but that remains to be seen. I have begun entering TLT here, but I do acknowledge that there is further room to fall, perhaps as much as 30% from current levels. The volume looks like capitulation, so even if they fall further we may be due for a relief rally. As always, this is not meant as financial advice. This is for speculation and entertainment only. I am really winding down my posts on here. If you'd like to stay updated about what I'm doing, please feel free to reach out. -Victor Cobra
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by VictorCobra
2
Catch a falling knife, go long TLTTLT is back at prices not seen since 2007. There's a large number of short sellers in profit that will need to buy TLT to close their positions. It's a scary chart but I think it's time to sell treasury bills and buy each new monthly low on TLT on the basis that we're locking in a good long term rate and that inflation isn't going into hyperdrive and long and short interest rates are inverted and have a nearly perfect record of predicting economic slow down.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Abzorba
1
The Day Ahead: GDXJ, FXI, EWZ, GDX Premium SellingIt's Friday, and the last trading day of September ... . Here's what's at the top of my IV screener in the exchange-traded fund space: TQQQ, IVR/IV 23.3/64.2% GDXJ, 22.7/36.4% (2.52% yield) FXI, 12.5/33.4% (2.26% yield) EWZ, 11.1/31.9% (10.9% yield) GDX, 26.0/31.5% (2.23% yield) You'll notice that everything is still pretty much in the lower one-quarter of the IV range over the past 52 weeks, but there are a few instruments have popped above 30% 30-day. If you're big on divvies, EWZ stands out, but one potential drawback for some may be that it only distributes biannually in June and December. In the broad market exchange-traded fund space: QQQ, IVR/IV 22.2/22.3% with the shortest duration <16 delta strike that pays 1% of the strike price in the December 15th (the 321, paying 3.30 at the mid) IWM, 21.6/20.8%, with the shortest duration <16 delta strike that pays 1% of the strike price in the December 15th (the 162, paying 1.72) SPY, 22.1/17.1%, with the shortest duration <16 delta strike that pays 1% of the strike price in the January 19th contract (the 385, paying 3.91). You can naturally opt for shorter duration and be more aggressive with your delta, with the trade-off being that you may end up being assigned shares more frequently or have to manage in-the-money's via roll, which is not the funnest way to manage a tested short put, depending how deep in-the-money it is. (I'm talking mostly about what I do strategically in my retirement account, which is short put/acquire/cover or "wheel"). Me Personally ... . I pretty much mechanically put on the shortest duration <16 delta strikes paying around 1% in broad market (IWM, QQQ, SPY) on a weekly basis, so am going to do that today, assuming I don't already have rungs camped out where I'd want to pitch my tent with a secondary consideration being whether the contract represents a better strike than what I've currently got on. And, in spite of the short term pain I'm experiencing in my attempt to acquire TLT shares at these levels, I'll probably also add in a rung (or two), since I have a maximal buying power that I want to devote to that position, and I'm not there yet. The probable result at the moment is that I will be assigned various lots at various strikes and will have to cover (i.e., sell call against) at various durations, some of which may be quite long-dated with my current highest strike at the 94 (in the November 17th) and the lowest at the 84 (in the December 15th). Naturally, were I to have followed my initial plan as to when I wanted to start picking up shares, (See Post Below), I would be "less red" ... .
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
15+ Years Worth of Gains Gone - TLT ETFFinancial markets prove people wrong over and over. I guess that's the point - trick as many people as possible into taking their money. For example, investing in Treasury Bonds has always been seen as a relatively safe & stable way to grow wealth. Some people have found that ETFs in Treasuries offer that. Well, the chart above sort of changes that perspective, eh? While the rest of my post will explain the basics, like what happened and what we can learn, I actually do think this might be an interesting bounce play. Thus, I am watching it for a swing trade off the lows! Support line, anyone? Let's see. Now onward... The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ( NASDAQ:TLT ) has been a go-to choice to gain exposure to Treasury bonds over many years now. However, recent events have erased nearly 15 years worth of gains. And it did not take long at all. The culprit behind TLT's recent woes is the rise in interest rates. When interest rates go up, the value of existing bonds tends to go down. As the Federal Reserve decided to increase rates to combat inflation, TLT investors found themselves holding the bag. The good news is that they'll still collect a good dividend over time, but for now, that's damage done to the core principle. Want to hear a joke? Okay... Why did the TLT ETF go to therapy? Because it couldn't handle its ups and downs anymore! Jokes aside, the TLT turmoil serves as a stark reminder that even seemingly safe investments can turn sour quickly. Here are some key takeaways: Interest Rate Risk: As we've seen with TLT, interest rate movements can have a significant impact on bond investments. When rates rise, bond prices fall. Market Uncertainty: The markets are inherently uncertain. Risk Management: Setting stop-loss orders or regularly rebalancing your portfolio can help mitigate losses. Let's see what happens next. I have NO position currently.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by scheplick
3
TLT still selling offSharing fib downside levels to be aware of. This starts out with a Fib extension tool starting from Dev 07, 2021 Here are the 3 prices if you want to place on your chart. $155.12 $152.52 $151.47 If we break 93.88, look for more downward pressure toward $90.44. This price may be a turning point. It's very common for price to reversal(for a short time) at 50% between 2 fib levels. Also, notice that I've placed the fib retracement tool between 2 fib levels from the fib extension tool. If you are a believer in fib, this is very handy as you can observe. When/if price starts declining, it should move fast as we've gone sideways for a long time. A long sideways move usually leads to a large move in price
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by shamgar331
TLT's New All Time Lows!!! Rocket from hereTLT did not fall too far but my TMF position was recked from its $5.80 average. Word on the street is that a bunch of retail investors were buying TMF while TLT was in the 90s and 100s so now it is time to wait for the US to buy bonds because they won't be able to pay out this high of yeilds. Gold/Miners and Bonds are our savior right now until the recession (shallow or deep) happens. After that its back to CRYPTOCAP:BTC CRYPTOCAP:ETH CRYPTOCAP:ADA
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by itsmrpizzatoyou
3
TLT A MAJOR LOW IS NEAR 91 target The chart posted is that of TLT first target to end is 91/87.25 . How do I come to this target is based on fib relationships the peak 179.7 dropped to end the 1 wave 133 that drop was 46.6 pts 46.6 x .618 = 28.79 . the drop of 46.6 on a pct basis = 25 % 25 % x .618 =16 % wave 4 was the contracting triangle wave E ended at 103.95 x 16 % =16.6 pts - 103.95= wave 5 if on a log scale wave 5 is .618 of wave 1 as wave 3 was a clear extension . wave 5 is and can be .618 of wave 1 or equal if wave 3 has been extended this gives a target 91/87.25 to end the 5 waves down . therefore I will call an end of the bear market in tlt bond market is nearing .
NASDAQ:TLT
by wavetimer
3
How would you trade this chart in the next 13 weeks?Before answering the question please read this quote: “We know the past but cannot control it. We control the future but cannot know it.” (Claude Shannon) Claude Shannon's quote "We know the past but cannot control it. We control the future but cannot know it" is a profound statement about the nature of time and our relationship to it. The past is fixed and immutable. We can learn from it, but we cannot change it. The future, on the other hand, is open-ended and uncertain. We can make plans and take action, but we cannot know for sure what will happen. This duality between the past and the future can be seen in many aspects of our lives. For example, we can learn from the mistakes of the past, but we cannot change those mistakes. We can make plans for the future, but we cannot know for sure if those plans will come to fruition. Shannon's quote is a reminder that we are limited in our ability to control both the past and the future. However, it also suggests that we can still learn and grow from both. By understanding the past, we can make better choices in the future. And by taking action in the present, we can shape the future in our own way. Here are some of the implications of Shannon's quote: We should not dwell on the past, as we cannot change it. Instead, we should learn from it and move on. We should not be afraid of the future, as we cannot know it. Instead, we should make plans and take action to shape the future in our own way. We should live in the present moment, as this is the only time we have any control over it. I will provide my answer soon! thinking about this chart will give you the opportunity to find solutions to deal with uncertain situations!
NASDAQ:TLT
by Moshkelgosha
5