TLT 99.00 Pivotal Hold For Further UpsideIn this update we review the recent price action in TLT and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
TLT trade ideas
Mortgage Interest Rates - Fork In The RoadCeiling of resistance and floor of support are terms commonly used in technical analysis to describe price levels in financial markets that exhibit high levels of buying or selling pressure. A ceiling of resistance is a price level at which a stock or other financial instrument has had difficulty moving above in the past. It is a level where there is significant selling pressure that prevents the price from going higher. Each time the price approaches this level, it tends to get rejected, and the price moves back down. If the price manages to break through this level, it can be a signal of a bullish trend as more buyers come into the market. On the other hand, a floor of support is a price level at which a stock or other financial instrument has had difficulty moving below in the past. It is a level where there is significant buying pressure that prevents the price from going lower. Each time the price approaches this level, it tends to get supported, and the price moves back up.
If the price manages to break through this level, it can be a signal of a bearish trend as more sellers come into the market. It's important to note that these levels are not fixed and can change over time as market conditions and sentiment evolve. Technical analysts use various tools and techniques, such as trendlines and moving averages, to identify these levels and track their movements over time. However there is a decent probability that we may see a reversal, as it would definitely be a welcome sigh of relief.
TLT low?Lets see if we get significant retracement high if we break back above red MAs into the gravity channel.
TLT - iShares Long-Bond ETF / US30 - Scalp Short, Switch LongThe TLT 20+ year bond ETF has, at this point, been bearish since August.
Personally, I thought after the late December-early January push upwards that TLT would have made a new high before dropping for a while because yields were trading a lot lower than the Fed rate, but that move never transpired and the shares have instead been mucking around.
I don't specifically like this price action for puts/shorts, because there's two big factors that make me believe TLT is going up:
1. On the monthly bars, there's nowhere lower for TLT to go, unless you believe a new all time low is coming:
Monthly
The 2014-2015 lows were taken during last year's bear pulses, in fact.
The same can be said for the weekly candles:
Weekly
When taken in light of the fact that TLT has not traded like it wants to go down for the last three months, this really is a spot that I think a trader has to either stay flat or look for a long at lower prices.
However, there's a big tell that there's a premium short scalp opportunity manifest in US30, the 30-year US Treasury Bond:
US30 30-year US Treasury Bond - Daily
The key factors are:
1. July of '21 was a complete gap fill
2. December of '22 made a lower low
3. The enormous November CPI surprise pump candle gap has been left untouched
4. The '22 year end retrace left the psychological 99.xx level untouched
5. The retrace on TLT to $99.60 was only a sweep of range equilibrium, evidenced by the fact that a new high has not been set. The FOMC candle failed to set a new high, too.
And all of that combines to lead me to believe that the US30 has in the range of 6-10 percent to retrace, and imminently, which would drive TLT down by $7-11.
Moreover, a $10 raid on TLT would make a lot of sense if there's about to be a significant moon mission in the markets. It would take out the December pivot lows, rebalance the CPI-candle gap, and give permanent bears a chance to lose their accounts going short at the bottom.
But I believe if you're going to go short here, you have to treat it as a scalp. Because there's no downside left besides setting a new all time low on the ETF, which mirrors the bond market in its own manifestation, chances are we go up. Moreover, with the Fed clearly slowing the pace of their rate hikes, there's no reason to believe bond yields will exceed 5% for more than a few days until late 2023 at the earliest.
$98-95 TLT would be a long with targets at $120 and $130.
When the markets start to go up again, you have to avoid being short, but you also need to be super, super careful being long. The reason is that the situation in China with Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party being sacked by the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic is many, many, many times worse than we're being led to believe by establishment media and social influencers.
The number of deaths in China has been terrifying, and whenever you're dealing with so many excess deaths, a country is going to lose a certain percentage of its engineers, technicians, and supply chain. This, in my opinion, is the real reason companies like Apple are moving their production out of China.
So one day in this lifetime of ours when the CCP falls like the USSR did, it will happen overnight, and China daytime is US night time, meaning the US equities and bond markets will go gap down, but this time they'll just stay gap down.
Moreover, the world will change when the Party is gone. The normalcy we've become accustomed to and this way of living as human beings will all change. But the transition won't be so pleasant.
It's very important to value virtue and do your best to cultivate your heart. Atheism and the theory of evolution are unscientific poisons. Never forget this.
Neutral/ Shorting Opportunity on TLT 20 Yr Bond Fund. TLT Risk ON/OFF Indicator.
I was seeing the TLT rapidly decline, while 10 year yield rates are increasing. TLT is the 20 year bond fund. As short term rates are increasing, more people purchase of the 10 year bond, and less of the 20 year bond resulting in declining demand and declining price. Many are speculating the Federal Reserve Board may raise rates 50 bps or .5% to curb stubborn inflation. This would only make short term bonds more attractive than long term bonds, and there will be more of market for short term bonds. T think it could go either way 25 or 50 bps, and I am leaning toward 25 bps increase on March 15-16 by the Federal Reserve Board that the FOMC meeting.
Personal Anecdotal Opinionated Analysis conducted with the help of Mary.
This is also known as the yield curve inversion, when the yields of short term bonds are higher than long term bonds. This means that the dollar is getting stronger relative to other assets, and more attractive to hold compared to other assets, declining price of the other assets. shorter time horizon certainties are favored over long term time horizon certainties. Declining prices means that your dollar is getting more valuable relative to those same assets, when simply held in comparison to them. Less printing from the federal reserve reduces the supply of the money, while demand is increasing. This means the potential total accreted future value of the money locked in the 20 year bonds is less attractive than the potential money locked inside of the short term bonds,
TLTWedge breakout and retest... Now we will either rally back to 105 or drop back inside wedge and close gap at 99.. either way, I like the position of TLT because it leaves little room for a fake out
Bearish continuation triangle dailyShort it.. also darkpool print of a $2.3 million $90 strike worth of puts with a 6/16/23 expiration for TLT was bought about 19 hours ago today.
LONG TLTIdea:
The stock market has been overbought in recent weeks. Bonds most often go in the opposite direction from the stock market. The market underestimates the persistence and slowness of the Fed, they very often raise the rate higher than required
Position size 20% of the portfolio
TLTFalling wedge formed here. Friday we closed at resistance.
A break out and we head to 105
A rejection and we melt down to finish and close gap at 99.50
Daily Candle finished with a bullish engulfing.
Usually falling wedges have a retest of there former resistance after breaking out. So we could breakout, rally to 105 , then pullback and retest and also close gap at 99.50.
Ascending Wedge in a Bearish TrendWedges that point towards the trend are usually signs of a reversal. On the other hand, when they point against the trend (as in this case) is a sign of momentum continuation. The short continues until there is an upper low in the trend ( double bottom ), indicating possible exaustion of the bear run.
TLT Part 1I've been saying all week that TLT needs to go below $100, pretty obvious looking at the chart. I'm assuming a bounce at "support", but if the Fed keeps talking about .50 in March then it could blow right through it.
Bond traders are about to lose all of their profit for the calendar year..... You'd think they would use trailing stops.... maybe not I dunno, I am NOT a bond expert, certainly not in terms of trading bonds.
Bonds Are About To Come Back..Oil always over react to inflation as history say. I think Bond prices are going to come right back up along with stocks. Meaning we are about to have a risk on event imo.
TLTLooking for a temporary bounce here a 103.
If TLT breaks support trendline, we are headed for gap close at 99
TLT - 30 yr bond auction todayGuess the auction didn't go well, lol. Market is pricing in more rate hikes, and Euros did a pump and dump on CPI numbers earlier.
Note that this drop caused the market to drop and BTC lost support right after.
BTW, Auction schedule:
home.treasury.gov
The market's trading entirely on inflation and bond yield news right now, better pay attention.
Fight or Flight.TLT is the most interesting instrument for me to analyze.
That's what has me concerned about the upcoming CPI.
You know when you are flying a plane and the instruments all start flashing and making noises.
That's what is happening the past week in equities, bonds and FX.
Trends are THE most important factor in a traders arsenal.
TLT trend follows liquidity. If liquidity is rising (TLT UP), risk is on, if liquidity is drying up (order book getting thin), risk moves to off conditions.
TLT and S&P 500 Dealer Directional Open Interest (DDOI) gamma exposure is another measurement of liquidity.
Liquidity over the past week has been under tight control and pulling back in cases like TLT.
While we are seeing big distributions intraday in equities from short squeezes and earnings hit or misses, I'm not reading that in liquidity.
It could be the fact that all 3 hedged equity funds are positive and support along with long call flows that reminisce in 2020-21 Bull Market.
Underlying weaknesses may be lurking post CPI.
If TLT breaks this trend line lower (< 103), it will likely be the earliest indicator that liquidity is drying up.
TLT on a positive uptrend meant positive flows in indexes.
The trifecta, Bonds, S&P and Hedge Equity Flows all supportive flows.
It's the primary reason I was bullish at the the following point.
DXY is another important trend to follow.
If US wants to export inflation, it would start with a trend reversal higher.
I expect DXY will come back down to test the 20D prior to CPI (FEB 14).
That's when I think when the fireworks will begin, maybe a LEFT tail and maybe a RIGHT
I missed the last CPI print in my series on Has It Peaked.
This idea and the Window of Weakness idea are just primers for what is shaping up to be an explosive few weeks ahead
VIX is acting different these past few weeks. I think we are at a Nadir on the VIX and this CPI print right in front of VIXperation/OPEX is when we'll know Higher for Longer or Viva la'Bull
FEB 14 - CPI
FEB 15 - VIXPERATION
FEB 18 - OPEX
FEB 20 - Exchange Holiday
So lots of potential for Volatility.
Vol should be well supplied into CPI
and depending on direction and how dealers are positioned for VIX/OPEX should see larger distributions than normal.
Good if you're a convexity trader.
FEB 20 Holiday is important because it's happening during a window of weakness while technical flows will be weakest until March.
TLT daily - warning warning TLT is in a symmetrical triangle and formed triple top just below 200 days MA or as we call it BigRed. TLT or 20 years bond is losing momentum, especially after job reports on Friday which is an indication of still hotter inflation or better say probably an increase in the FED fund rate in near future. It moves from the bottom really nicely on speculation that FED will stop increasing of its fund rate but for how long.
Volume is more bearish than bullish as those red days are on increased volume.
It is below all major MA which is bearish.
RSI is in neutral territory.
MACD is more bearish than bullish as the MACD line cross below the signal line signaling a lack of momentum in price while histograms tick lower and lower.
Overall: TLT is in down spiral and is losing momentum which got from the idea that it is all over with rate hikes and that FED will pivot. However, after job reports and Powel statement, more FED fund rates increasing are in front of us, and it's becoming bearish.
It could/should find some support at the lower trend line but likely not for a long time. Next week we will have the CPI report which will move TLT on one side or another. With breaking below the trend line short position would be triggered.
From the bullish side, breaking above the trend line and BigRed buy signal would be triggered.
20 Year Treasury Bond Daily Log ChartImportant inflexion point for 20 year treasury bonds.
Something tells me they are ready to tumble...
#tlt #inflation #recession #nasdaq #amazon #arkk
TLT possible support and bullish setup TLT had a nice reversal double bottom at the $93 area.
It then started a nice uptrend to about $110. I marked this on the chart as the first leg of the trend based Fib tool.
TLT then pulled back and found support at $100, this is the second leg of the trend based Fib on the chart.
After that TLT tested the $110 area two more times which coincided with the .618 level on the Fib trend.
Right now TLT is pulling back towards the Fib .382. This level is around $105.5 which also has several support touches.
It is likely that TLT will bounce back from here to test $110 again IMO. If not, the stop loss can be pretty tight under 105.5
If $110 breaks, the 1:1 extension is at around $115.
TLTGapped down below 21ema today.
White wave -21ema
Red arrow - represents breaks below 21ema.
Equities slide when this happens
Green arrow - represents a break above 21ema
Equities rally when this happen
Short to trendline support
TLT Trading The MTF Corrective CycleIn this update we review the recent price action in TLT and identify the next high probability trading opportunities and price objectives to target
$TLT: Keep an eye on this$TLT has reached the end of a huge weekly and monthly down trend, and made me think it could be a long lasting bottom for fixed income here. Question is: Does this low hold after the next FOMC or not?
The daily chart shows a setup where a daily uptrend is set to expire by tomorrow, which could mean the current advance is over, or, perhaps, it needs some time sideways to build for a new move to the upside over time. If you can figure out what bonds will do, you have pretty big odds of getting all the rest right overall, so I'm extremely motivated to figure out what comes next here.
Keep an eye out for the daily signal outlook here, and be on guard for a weekly scale breakout to the upside to buy or add to existing longs.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
#TLT - US 20 year bonds ready for another leg higher?Looks like bonds could break up here- target approx $117 - like the look of this
Inverse Head & Shoulders Reversal Pattern ConfirmedAn inverse Head & Shoulders has confirmed the neckline with a price target of 127 by the end of June.
Last Jan I posted this recession projection for TLT
And then I projected the spike in yields on the 10Yr right before the Aug Rug Pull from Jerome Powell.
Finally catching the double bottom reversal at the bottom at the lows of 91.85
Bond bears are calling this reversal a trap/mistake suggesting a Mistake in 2 rate cuts in the 2nd half of 2023.
I only monitor TLT for technical analysis and to confirm / invalidate trends for the S&P 500.
Not financial or trading advice.
