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TLT trade ideas

Treasuries 2023 updated outookWave 5 is inevitable, only its time of flight is unknown. In a well-structured trend (and we have a perfect trend here), the time spent between points 3 and 5 is loosely related to the duration of 1-3. I have seen waves 5 hit top/bottom at 0.5..0.786 of this ratio. It's never a precise fib number, but 3-5 does tend to be faster than 1-3. Based on these observations, here we have out timing estimates for w5 completion: 0.382 - June 6 (too fast.. 0.382 ratios are rare, but still possible) 0.5 - August 15 0.618 - October 23 0.786 - January 31, 2024 So, realistically, we are going to see Treasuries bottom out in September-October. By that time the market will achieve the "impossible four": - 10Y paper will hit >10% - SPX at 1500 - EURUSD at 0.75 - USDJPY at 100
NASDAQ:TLT
by AndyM
10
% BONDS & INTEREST RATESThere's obviously lots of discussion about interest rates and where they are headed. Today, I'm going to look at long-term interest rates based on the well-known ETF: $TLT . Long-term interest rates are useful as a guide for most people who get a home-loan or longer-dated loans and is usually less prone to manipulation (by Central Banks) than short-term rates. Bond prices move inverse to interest rates. A rise in bond price means a lower interest rate and vice versa. 📈📉 Let's have a look at the long-term chart. I'm using the weekly timeframe to remove the day-to-day noise. You can see that since the January 2020 peak, bond prices have fallen. This was when interest rates bottomed and started rising. The bear market in bonds extended to Oct 2022. Subsequently, we have seen a rally in bonds and therefore a drop in interest rates. The multi-trillion dollar question is: Was Oct 2022 the BOTTOM i.e. has interest rates peaked? My technical view is that the bearish trend in bonds is still the dominant force. So far the bounce off the bottom does not yet signal a trend reversal. For this to be the case, I need to see TLT move higher beyond 114. IF price moves beyond 114, I would be more confident in stating that at a minimum there has been a Change in Behaviour. At that price level, the size of the upward move would be the largest since the Jan 2020 top. Larger than the upward bounce that began in Mar 2021 and ended in Nov 2021. A Change of Behaviour signals that market participants are starting to have differing opinions. It is this change in opinion that sow the seeds as the first step required for a trend change. If the bond price falters prior to reaching beyond 114, it is highly likely that we have not seen the bottom and higher interest rates should be expected. Clearly the next few weeks will be crucial in that determination. I will update my thoughts as the price evolves.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by mrstockyetoro
Zoom out and use what you know to make forward predictionsTLT is a precise instrument. Weekly rarely leaves a gap behind, and if it did, it was a big move up or down. It's the most forward looking. Take for example Jan 1st 2020. What you will notice is a consolidation at the 200W and a move higher the week after the JHEQX pin. That move was a clear pivotal forward indication the market was going to crash in Mar 2020. Now look at the week the fed began QE on Mar 16th. This QE opened pandoras box of crypto, meme stocks, penny pumps, SPACS, and speculation nation that was 2020-2021. Now that bonds have been decimated for over a year we are at a pivotal point. JHEQX is set to expire today releasing a pin in equity hedging allowing markets to make their next move. My plan the next month is to find a suitable long TLT position for 2025 leaps. There are 2 gaps above in TLT weekly as a result of 2 major JHEQX pin weeks. There could still be a drop in TLT the next few months if markets & banks hold strong in Q2 and fed remains hawkish into next hike. A selloff in TLT next week (rates up) would most likely mark the bottom. 2020-2021 was an exceptional year. So far the recovery starting in 2022 to now has had its share of exceptional sell off moments and capitulations witnessed for the Sept'22 CPI print.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by SPYvsGME
TLT Volume Spikes UPDATED with ElliotwaveTLT Volume spikes prior to peak, when the fed first started raising rates. Now a volume peak right when the fed has said they will consider a pause for the next meeting. This could mean that the market thinks that rates are going to come down, and that therefore the value of long term bond assets will go up, as well as the value of banking stocks which are currently underwater. Previously, I mentioned that I though that the TLT would be going down, now I am updating this idea to include the notion that the fed may be done hiking for the short to long term, and that the TLT will be going up after experiencing large volume after a down trend.
NASDAQ:TLT
by International_Leeroy
Pennant (Bullish) | 10% move possible"Pennant (Bullish)" chart pattern formed on iShares 20 Year Treasury (TLT:NASDAQ). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of $106.40 to the range of $115.00 - $117.00. The pattern formed over 8 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis. Tells Me: The price seems to be resuming a sharp rally after taking a brief pause. A bullish Pennant pattern occurs during a dynamic market rally, representing a brief period of indecision before running off again in the same direction. The pattern consists of two converging trend lines with diminishing volume, and is confirmed when the price breaks through the upper boundary to resume the advance.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by moneytalkstome
1
Somebody knows something? TLT high volume spike. TLT high volume spike, after short term bullish run. Declining rate on the us treasury bonds in the broader market have given the 20 year TLT bond fund a boost over the last week. As the rates have been declining on the anticipation of a fed funds pause, the value of long term bonds has been increasing, or moreover moving up for the unrealized loss positions which is what sent SVB to the grave. Meanwhile; Chairman Powell announced an increased fed fund rate of .25% higher, despite the anticipation of a pause from the general public. At the same time they have proposed a general backstop to the banking system, guaranteeing a full discount swap for these underwater bond assets held by the banks, and guaranteeing depositors their funds are safe to prevent further bank runs. These actions appear bearish in the general outlook, and in character regarding the necessity of raising rates yet again, as well as the necessity of proving a backstop for the banks so as not fail. Of course, many have taken these action as a sign of bullishness, as a sign that Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve board will be pausing soon, as he mentioned this to be the case for the next meeting. The fed funds rate is now 4.83 %. The TLT high volme spike, on a short red candle is indicative of high interest to the short side at this price level, indicating that the potential future move for rates is even higher still; forecasting that long term bonds will remain underwater; and the banking crises with the potential to continue into the near and medium future. These are simply my opinions. I am curious to hear what you all think. i am open to dissent, corrections of my errors, and alternative opinions, as long as they are evidenced, logical, and factual. what do you think?
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by International_Leeroy
TLT: Trade Idea Before More Fed QEThe signal I was waiting for to start buying bonds was whenever the Federal Reserve stopped or slowed raising interest rates. The Fed held another rate policy meeting this week and only raised the Federal Funds Rate by +.25% instead of the +.75% that had been the trend. We've gone from seeing a +.50% hike in Dec, to +.25% in Jan to +.25% this week after 4 prior straight +.75% hikes in mid to late 2022. Now that banks are failing and layoffs are starting to tick up, this weeks rate hike was likely the last for a bit unless inflation doesn't stay flat or go down before the next Fed rate meeting. You can search "2023 FOMC meetings" for the full schedule. My thought here is that within the next 12-18 months the Federal Reserve will lower rates and begin buying treasuries again(aka money printing), and I think the time to start front-running that trade in to bonds is now for those who like to accumulate a larger position over time. The best way for the average trader or phone app investor to get into bonds is via "TLT", the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, which tracks the 20-year treasury bond price rather than the interest rate on the 20-year bond. As rates go up, bond prices go down and vice versa. Right now I'm betting on rates having topped out(or close to it) and that bond prices are going to go back up over the next year or so as recession fears kick in and stock prices go lower. We've had a deep and long yield curve inversion to boot and those almost always precede a US recession. I have a recent post showing the yield curve inversion vs stocks vs US recessions for reference. TLT price is trading at decade lows and holding above $100 after a dip down to $90. Seeing the price of any asset hold above nice round numbers is always a good sign, psychologically traders like round numbers. The lower PPO momentum indicator is showing signs of a potential reversal in momentum from negative to short-term positive, and this is a monthly chart so it would be a significant event. A bullish crossover is what we want to see which is when the green signal line crosses above the purple base line in the lower PPO indicator. That would indicate a short-term return to bullish momentum on a monthly basis.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by PrepForProfit
4
Could this volatile move in bonds lead to a market crash?I’m honestly not sure what to think of this chart and it is concerning me. I was playing around with TLT and MOVE (a kind VIX for bonds) and I noticed that multiplying them together created these extended spikes that have correlated with market crashes in the past. We only have the two crashes to go buy, so this method hasn’t been tested enough to be that reliable, but the way that it has broke out this week has me concerned that something really big and bad is around the corner. I thought that maybe the market was already crashing in the past as these were spiking, but that isn’t true: SPY was just starting to make a down trend both times, and likely most thought at the time that it was just a normal pullback in SPY. One thing I will be watching out for is to go long on the market if that resistance is tapped and also get out of my TLT. I generally have a feeling when looking at this though that they have completely broke the market now (it if wasn't already broken enough), and the wheels are set in motion for shit to hit the fan some day in the future. Here’s a pic too, because I don’t like how the interactive chart gets squished sometimes:
NASDAQ:TLT
by Lynxys
2