Include $TLT in Your Portfolio 🪙Bonds are seriously underperforming stocks and TLT has been on a downtrend since the onset of Covid lockdowns when global governments printed massive amounts of money to prop up the equity markets. In Oct 2022, TLT broke below the 2014 low and then recovered nicely. I believe allocating like 10% in treasuries will be beneficial with the outlook of 2-4 years as we can expect the world to start to work around the sticky high interest rate environment.
TLT trade ideas
Bullish Cypher set up Short to D leg then get bullishlooking at the 4hr chart of TLT, I see a Bullish Cypher set up in which im inclined to short from C leg to D leg. In addition, the AD and money flow is rolling over the 9/18ema on the 4hr chart.. Minimum target is $98, then look for direction if weakness still exists look for 93
Treasuries 2023 outlook. Bad things will happen.The overwhelming majority of 1-3-5 structures exhibit the time property where the market spends less time between 3-5 compared to 1-3. The ratio between the two usually lies between 0.382 and 0.786. This gives us a very good indication that 2023 will indeed by the pivotal year for the Treasuries.
It is my firm belief that the sell-off in Treasuries will reach a point where a global repricing of all yielding assets will happen, causing the crash in the markets worldwide. If it's not happening yet, it only means that Treasuries haven't moved low enough. They will keep grinding lower and investors will be forced to take notice.
2023 will be the time when SPX will hit 1500, while EURUSD will finally reach 0.75, and EURJPY will land below 88.
LONG Term Treasuries With the yield curve inverted, inflation slowing rapidly and global growth expectations revised downwards, long term treasury bonds are looking like an excellent allocation right now.
A reversion to 2% on 30 Year yields over the next couple of years would produce double digit Annualized returns.
Full story here: matthewiesulauro.substack.com
TLT - US 20 Year Treasury SELLOFF Treasury yield is the effective annual interest rate that the U.S. government pays on one of its debt obligations, expressed as a percentage. Put another way, Treasury yield is the annual return investors can expect from holding a U.S. government security with a given maturity.
Treasury yields don't just affect how much the government pays to borrow and how much investors earn by buying government bonds. They also influence the interest rates consumers and businesses pay on loans to buy real estate, vehicles, and equipment.
Treasury yields also show how investors assess the economy's prospects. The higher the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries, the more confidence investors have in the economic outlook. But high long-term yields can also be a signal of rising inflation expectations.
Treasury yields are inversely related to Treasury prices.
Treasury yields can go up, sending bond prices lower, if the Federal Reserve increases its target for the federal funds rate (in other words, if it tightens monetary policy), or even if investors merely come to expect the fed funds rate to go up.
An inverted yield curve on which the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has declined below that on the 2-year Treasury note (to cite just one popular benchmark) has usually preceded recessions.
A rising yield indicates falling demand for Treasury bonds, which means investors prefer higher-risk, higher-reward investments. STONKS GO UP, FORCING THE FED TO REMAIN HAWKISH! A falling yield suggests the opposite.
Trade of 2023? TLT! Big Boring BondsWhat is the big trade for 2023? I think it is going to be BONDS. This is my thesis on going long NASDAQ:TLT to start 2023. I walk through the reason that when yields go up, bond values go down (as did TLT) and why I think that TLT is likely to go back up over the course of this 2023 and beyond.
TLT Inverse Head & ShouldersI was too busy singing the Bull Blues yesterday to notice.
Today had flipped upside down to form a 15m Inverse Head & Shoulders on TLT.
Price target is 102.13
I was worried all hope of a bullish start to the new year was lost.
Jan 10 will be the next date to put on on my Calendar.
The Anatomy of the TLT; Cycle analysis by ThestructuredThis is my dissection of the TLT chart into the classic stages of a bubble, with time cycles. Each stage is present and the TLT appears to be in a bottoming process. I'm a big fan of using Fib channels combined with time cycles, because with fib channels, you are looking for a certain line to get hit, wherever that may be, as opposed to traditional fib retracements and extensions where you are looking for exact numbers. I find that with regular fibs, price often overshoots or undershoots them, whereas using a channel, it is more so a time based touch of a line, which si why it works so well with time cycles.
Last year I had used these fib channels and cycles to find the current bottom on the TLT, which was an exact touch of the 161.8, right at a (red) time cycle trough region, and also at a strong volume profile node.
There are larger, converging cycle troughs shown which should be somewhere in the September area of 2023. It is unclear at this time whether that region will be a higher low, or 'the bottom' (assuming that the 92 area wasn't already 'the' bottom, which it might have been.
In any case, I am planning on investing this fall in that major trough zone, regardless of if price is higher or lower than it is now, when that timing region comes.
Disclaimer: These charts and posts are a reflection of my own analysis and opinions based on my own analysis. I could be wrong, nothing is guaranteed, and my posts are for educational purposes only, as they are my own pure speculation, and should not be taken as investment advice of any kind. Do you own DD!
Bonds to Start the YearAs I mentioned in my 2022 EOY letter... with actual meaningful interest rates now a thing bonds can return yield. While bonds issued in the last decade (or two) are getting hammered in value as higher rate bonds are being issued presently. I think the market is pricing all of this in and if we do get a tapering of rate increases we will see bond values increase.
TLT NASDAQ:TLT has a good setup for a TS recapture on the Weekly timeframe from last week. The trade going into 2023 is for the October 2021 low on TLT to hold and move up over the year to recapture 135.
long term bond yields still bear, but go toward bottomim in favor of smashind long term bond yield curve, and inverting the front years more for obvious reasons, namely boj inflation/interest rate planning for example. the bottom is obviously not here for TLT, but i would look towards these boxes in this order.
TLT rally faces some tough testsText book V shaped reversal pattern on TLT now faces a duel with a previous support/resistance line with volume and the 200 day EMA shown in green. If the price can get above these levels then it could mark a convincing point in the bond market with a return to a rising value.