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TLT trade ideas

The Anatomy of the TLT; Cycle analysis by ThestructuredThis is my dissection of the TLT chart into the classic stages of a bubble, with time cycles. Each stage is present and the TLT appears to be in a bottoming process. I'm a big fan of using Fib channels combined with time cycles, because with fib channels, you are looking for a certain line to get hit, wherever that may be, as opposed to traditional fib retracements and extensions where you are looking for exact numbers. I find that with regular fibs, price often overshoots or undershoots them, whereas using a channel, it is more so a time based touch of a line, which si why it works so well with time cycles. Last year I had used these fib channels and cycles to find the current bottom on the TLT, which was an exact touch of the 161.8, right at a (red) time cycle trough region, and also at a strong volume profile node. There are larger, converging cycle troughs shown which should be somewhere in the September area of 2023. It is unclear at this time whether that region will be a higher low, or 'the bottom' (assuming that the 92 area wasn't already 'the' bottom, which it might have been. In any case, I am planning on investing this fall in that major trough zone, regardless of if price is higher or lower than it is now, when that timing region comes. Disclaimer: These charts and posts are a reflection of my own analysis and opinions based on my own analysis. I could be wrong, nothing is guaranteed, and my posts are for educational purposes only, as they are my own pure speculation, and should not be taken as investment advice of any kind. Do you own DD!
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by thestructured
Bonds to Start the YearAs I mentioned in my 2022 EOY letter... with actual meaningful interest rates now a thing bonds can return yield. While bonds issued in the last decade (or two) are getting hammered in value as higher rate bonds are being issued presently. I think the market is pricing all of this in and if we do get a tapering of rate increases we will see bond values increase. TLT NASDAQ:TLT has a good setup for a TS recapture on the Weekly timeframe from last week. The trade going into 2023 is for the October 2021 low on TLT to hold and move up over the year to recapture 135.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by norok
Bond Bear is Over - Long TLTNASDAQ:TLT [/symbol TLT has bottomed. Big Money accumulated over the past 3 months. The bear trendline that has held price for the past year has just been breached on massive volume. Ichimoku Cloud = Buy For the purposes of this idea, I've selected the 50 or 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level as targets. However, I believe price will continue to rise in the long term. Buy Buy Buy. Target 1 = 50% Fibonacci = $123.50 Target 2 = 61.8% Fibonacci = $131 Fat_Fat
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Cousin_Fat_Fat
3
Double Bottom Reversal on 20 Yr Treasury BondAfter almost a year since I published this short idea for TLT. The first bounce this summer was quickly snuffed out by the uber hawkish Jackson Hole speech from Jerome Powell when he told the world there was more blood to come. A lot of bulls and bears have been hung out to dry over this year long bear market. I don't know what every one was smoking this summer thinking Crypto was going to save them from the most difficult bear market since 2008. A year long bear market that was testing just how much banks learned from the 2008 housing crisis. Did Jerome Powell actually stave off a global financial crisis. The 10Yr yield is rolling over after pointing to 2008 levels. I'm not convinced the worst selling is over, but the next month up to Christmas is a seasonly strong period. Short term volatility may be in for a post thanksgiving pop like last year, but continues to compress into winter regardless of the bad news. The S&P should be testing the 200D moving average around the time the next CPI prints in Dec. While Volatility lets out the last of the bear market volatility. Skew is not. This should concern anyone with financial assets. Lots of charting ideas coming this Christmas. * IchanOt believe what I heard today. * Santa Clause Rally predictions. * Breaking down what inflation will do next. * Is reading Gamma a reliable indicator. In the mean time, have a great Thanksgiving. If you don't live in Ukraine you have a lot to be thankful for. Peace and Prosperity are far greater than the Put.
NASDAQ:TLT
by SPYvsGME
1
TLT 101.13 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnical & Trade View TLT ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Trade View 101.13 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 99.00 Technicals Primary support is 99.00 Primary upside objective 102.85 Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 101.50 Failure below 99.00 opens a test of 97.90 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish Institutional Insights According to analysts at Goldman Sachs ‘ Based on our valuation-adjusted estimates of preliminary data from the US Treasury ,foreign investors net purchased long-term US securities in September. Foreigninvestors net purchased long-term Treasuries and US equities, and net sold long-term US agency securities and corporate bonds. Private sector investors drove flows across asset classes.Japan was the largest net seller of long-term Treasuries in September, on our valuation-adjusted estimates, as the Ministry of Finance Intervened in foreignexchange markets to support the Yen for the first time in 24 years. Our estimates suggest that this was the largest one-month net sale of long-term Treasuries byJapanese investors since the Treasury’s securities holdings data began in 2012(although March 2022 came close). Belgium was the largest net buyer of long-termTreasuries at the country level. At the regional level, Europe and Latin America netpurchased long-term USTs while Asia was a net seller’
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Tickmill