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TLT trade ideas

Long $tlt vs short $lqd or $jnk Seems logical to meRates are backing up again on the false presumption that the economy is ok and that FED will keep raising rates to combat inflation. I believe a global recession is all but certain at this point. Plus, if China opens back up and inflation is pushed higher it is more likely priced in on treasuries and the impact not fully priced in for corporate bonds or junk. We will see I also think that we are at the early stages of a deflationary break in commodities that will be muted by China reopening. this is supportive of long dates bonds vs short
NASDAQ:TLT
by shawnsyx68
How long could deflation last? What about bonds?As most commodities are currently collapsing, it is very hard to keep believe that inflation is going to go higher from here. June could be the first month with a negative MoM CPI print, but it probably won't be the last. As deflation is taking inflation's seat, bonds have been looking attractive for some time. Essentially we got a blow of top in yields (capitulation bottom in bonds), and now bonds are rallying. It's totally normal as bonds took out the lows, and are now showing major strength at a time where the dollar is strong, while commodities, stocks and real estate looking weak. The truth is that there is no escape from a major global recession. Commodities could fall a lot more until Central banks reverse course. There is too much debt and the only way to get out is by printing, while all the rate hikes will only eventually result in a crash. It's just that rate hikes have a delayed effect and most investors haven't realized what is coming yet. Is the inflation story over? I don't think so. We are just in a very a nasty recession, that could lead to a deflationary collapse. Essentially a liquidity crunch that would cause investors to capitulate, and then force the Fed to step in to save the system. There is no way the Fed will hike rates more than 0.5-1% from here, and there is no way the Fed won't be forced to cut rates and resume QE by June 2023. The bond market reversing like this is an indication that the Fed is about to make a mistake by raising rates once or twice in the next few months, as bond yields are already coming down. It's interesting that bond yields rose more than in 2018 before they reversed and fell below the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), yet FFR is currently 0.75% lower than when the Fed paused in 2018. Could easily see FFR getting down to 0 in the next 12-24 months as the financial system faces collapse yet again, but I don't see bond yields going as low as they did during Covid. What I see is long duration bonds going up to the key breakdown zone, around 130-135 on TLT or bond yields going up to 2.4-2.6% before moving higher again. Essentially I do see a major deflationary episode ahead, I do believe bonds can go up, I don't believe the Fed will ahead of the problem and that there isn't much they can do. However at the same time I don't believe that the inflation story is over, as I do see higher inflation coming once we are done with this episode. Why? Because a lot of production of stuff will go offline, while governments print a ton of money to save the system. Less goods, more money... No way inflation won't happen again. The debt bubble is popping and long term this is inflationary. So far we've seen bonds divergence from their long term trends, first with a blow off top, and then with a rapid decline that swept the lows. Could we get back into the main trend? It's possible, but I don't think so. All I see is a similar retest to what we go in 2021, where bonds broke down and then retested the breakdown level before going lower. TLT will fill the gap and then decide where it wants to go. Definitely wouldn't be surprised if bonds chopped in a certain area for a while, but ultimately I think we are going lower. Of course we could go lower even during a deflationary period, as everyone is liquidating whatever they can. If people need dollars, they will sell anything for them, including dollars. At the moment bonds are still very attractive, yet this doesn't mean that if people need cash they will hesitate to sell them.
NASDAQ:TLT
by BitcoinMacro
4
TLT - Lemmon / Royer 714Quaaludes. Stumble Cookies as we used to refer to them. Half a dozen in a pitcher of Beer and it was down to the ground. Ah, the good old days, when Mommy's suffering from manic depression we're Sub'd these little ones. __________________________________________________ Bond Vigilantes might be suffering from Sopor Ingestion. If so, please - the hookup. __________________________________________________ The Degen Class of 007s has never quite learned the game. Rip it up, move down Rip it up, move it down to the ground Rip it up, cool down Rip it up, don't hang me on the borderline On the edge of oblivion And all the world is Babylon And all the love and everyone A ship of fools sailing on (Wang Chung ) ___________________________________________________ No matter we'll continue to take their Bacon and eat their Cake. Everything is better bacon-wrapped. Even Cake. Sweet and Sour. ____________________________________________________ After dismal 13 / 26 week auctions.... 2's and 5's sheet the bed as well... 7's had a rough day... less than 50% uptake on JunkCo Gov Bongs. Savage X Fenty, we're surmising. _____________________________________________________ Our favorite Velociraptor is back... toothless and starving ever so slowly. Wondering why the Dolt O' Whirl is imploding again. Looking for a "Massive RT!" A quick review of Dino's revisionist Track Record who was Wildy Hog Calling 180 for TLT and buying every Dip... T-r-X ∙ Sep 9, 2021 Wrong boy is wrong. T-r-X ∙ Sep 10, 2021 @HK_L61, US treasuries are still cheap. T-r-X ∙ Sep 14, 2021 @HK_L61, TLT is actually AAA quality government bonds (not junk). Btw JP Morgan is a large buyer of US treasuries. "Jamie Dimon says he wouldn't touch Treasurys with a 10-foot pole at these rates." Just do the opposite. I will enjoy seeing you lose money. T-r-X ∙ Sep 15, 2021 ∙ TradingView for Android I allocate between SPY, TLT and cash (DXY). I don't use options. T-r-X ∙ Nov 9, 2021 How's your short going? T-r-X ∙ Dec 29, 2021 @jscheurichiv, JP Morgan wants them. T-r-X ∙ May 12 @HK_L61, Still convinced in my 30 year US treasuries position. 30 year yield will drop to around 1%. T-r-X ∙ Jan 19 ∙ TradingView for Android @HK_L61 Nothing changed. Your calls were all wrong. ________________________________________________________________ Losers lose, Winners Win - T-REX Wrecked. TY for your $. xoxo - Hunter Killer
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
2
TLT bottoms in weekly hammer & divergence;but 108 still possibleTLT may have already bottomed out & the US10Y topped out with weekly hammer candles. TLT may find equilibrium at 132, my inflation pivot zone while US10Y may stabilize at 3.6% inflection point retesting its upchannel. TLT is now completing its M-pattern & has just entered my bullish BUY ZONE at 114 to 120. DCA Dollar cost averaging up from this point presents a very good risk-to-reward ratio. MORE DOWNSIDE? TLT may still go down to retest 108 where it bottomed multiple times in the past. Inflation expectations are slowing & the economy is starting to contract with oil & commodities turning down last week with investors pricing in a coming recession. Not trading advice.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by xtremerider8
2
Takuri Line : reversal sign.Alright, interesting candle on the one week on TLT : In my opinion this is a Takuri Line. The body is small and the close happens near the high (I am not 100% satisfied with this classification since it has an upper shadow but it is 16% of overall candle). The lower shadow is more than three times the body length (3.37). So it fits the takuri line definition. It happens at an extreme low - lowest point in over 120 weeks - which would also be a good environment for the Takuri line to appear. It is statistically a solid reversal candle. If we gap up tomorrow and finish above 116 in the next three weeks we could be setting a new up trend that leads us to 132 - 133.... (we couled retest 108) IT IS VERY BULLSIH - I know. I think macro factors favor a more bullish bias... we'll see. Good luck.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by joce-69003
TLT dangerously close to 2008 supportNASDAQ:TLT not looking to HOT here. The federal reserve has the following 3 options: 1) Stick to 0.50 basis points and continue the slow bleed. ~ This will piss off investors with cash on the sidelines and will most like hit the market harder. 2) Get aggressive and raise 0.75-1 basis point ~ Market may react positively. This would show the federal reserve is "serious" on fighting inflation. 3) Take the foot off the accelerator and step back into the market. Using macro environment as an excuse, for example Russia invasion of Ukraine and China lockdowns. I think it is noteworthy to mention that China has lowered their interest rates and are outperforming US equities. It honestly looks way more attractive and this is something the fed will have to ponder. This is a lose/lose battle because the federal reserve cannot magically print supply.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HispanicHedge
Will Superman (Powell) Return" No maybe in 2023Well well well here we are again now that your fake heroes have finally given up on calling inflation transitory which even a a circus monkey to tell you that wasn't going to happen we Can begin with the bloodbath. Well not here necessarily that will begin with the S&P 500 it will make sense soon enough. I will start with my condolences for those retirees with their 60/30 getting hammered both ways for those doing good keep it going baby. The boys at FED just started removing money from the markets this the beginning of more quantitative tightening measures to come. Anyone believing that this can hold if it goes to 130 it's just pure fractional wrongness while we are oversold The FED is no longer buying therefore no reason for this to make a turnaround we have been on a downturn since March 9th 2020 and people would rather risk money on the market than to buy these bonds even if the S&P were to capitulate to 3500 YES I know 600 points that's what happens when markets are flooded with cheap money. My best case scenario is bonds go 5-8% up I have a range of put options with expiration's in August September and some in January 2023. But I'm a cheapskate so I'm waiting for those puts to get a little cheap its in my best interest to do so. (Remember money is made when people refuse to think that bad things can happen and they WILL This is just the beginning BABY)
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by Nakedsnake14
3