TLT Plot.Made a short idea recently with the expectation the bounce was going to be a bit higher (and that's still possible) but it's looking more like this bounce may of topped and we're going head down from here.
TLT trade ideas
Traditional portfolio strategy for retirement... not so hot now!The candles below represent a 60/40 mix of TLT and SPY, bonds and stocks. SPY (orange) and TLT (blue) by comparison show than neither asset class is helping to overcome the bad performance of the other. By comparison, moving money to cash (UUP) looks like it would have been a great short-term move against inflation.
Bear Flag in Bond ETF?Bonds have been in a steady downtrend all year. And now, after a period of consolidation, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF may be set to continue lower.
This main pattern on this chart is the modest rebound over the last three weeks. Given the preceding four months of downside, it could be a classic bearish flag. The current drop also represents a potential break of the flag, which could bring sellers from the sidelines.
Second, notice how the stochastic oscillator recently jumped to its most overbought reading of the year.
Third is the low price of $111.90 from late 2018. Will traders look for that level as support?
Finally, macro conditions may favor downside in TLT. Yesterday brought strong U.S. consumer confidence and higher European inflation. Today featured robust manufacturing data. Non-farm payrolls are due Friday, followed by CPI on June 10 and the Federal Reserve meeting on June 15.
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watching for break of resistance 👀if we can break above 120 local resistance we could see a potential rally to 121.64-125.46-129.28
Bearish looking rising wedge on TLTThe 'breakout' of the recent down trend on TLT is looking muted and there has been a bearish rising wedge pattern forming. No breakdown as yet.
$TLT weekly on watch$TLT has seen multiple touches of the 114.30 level that have resulted in a reversal. Would keep your eyes on $TLT heading into the weekend. This Bond ETF Offers Bears An Alternative due to its inverse correlation to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY). The fund tracks a market-weighted index of debt issued by the U.S. Treasury with maturities of 20 years or more.
Rates Back Down with Growth SlowingTPs of 125 and 130 seem reasonable with massive growth deceleration coming. Maybe even ~140
TLT may return to 132-135 neutral zone as a flight to safety.TNX 10-yr yield may have peaked out as investors rotate to the safety of bonds in the 120-114
accumulation zone. TLT has completed a big M-pattern stopping at almost perfect FIBO levels. This ABC wave has already made a 300% retracement from the ATH of 173.89 made last 9Mar2020 before pandemic striked.
The 132-135 zone will be some sort of neutral area for determining inflation or deflation. It is also the neck zone of the M-pattern. As it fell quickly from this zone, the rebound will also be very fast looking at the volume profile that has a large space in between.
5 impulse waves & 3 ABC corrective waves have end this EW cycle & a new cycle shall begin as TLT returns to the baseline of my slanted FIBO CHANNEL where wave 3 had started at Feb2011.
Not trading advice
Did $TLT Finally BounceLook at the pivot finally form? It’s been a long fall but look at the change of the pivot finally forming. Anyone else see this reversal?
$TLT 15 year channelHere's another perfect long term channel. It is a log chart of $TLT. I am long $TMF (3x leveraged ETF ). No price target yet as I want to see how this whole thing plays out.
BUY TLTI've been right about most things
But wrong about bonds so far
If it doesn't respect the white fork, it has the previous swing low (marked) and the fib as protection
THIS is the buy
NOT TRADING ADVICE
TLT - 2 Hour PThe 20 Year ETF Bond has declined significantly in 2022.
Longer-term I anticipate 6% as the Primary PO for the 10 Year
Note.
TLT will head well below 100 into October 2023, breaking 92s
will provide an immediate break - an immense break.
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Sub 50 is an absolute on Mid Curve to 6%.
Declining from 173.69 to 112.62 is simply the 1st in a Series of
lower lows ahead.
I do, however, anticipate a counter-trend to 2.12 to 2.26.
TLT remains the JUNK ETF, chased by the inexperienced traders
seeking safety.
Hopefully, this herd is beginning to see the Cliff ahead as the
Bond Buffalo will be run up the plains mesa to their ultimate
deaths.
132 should limit the Upside ST.
Long swing in Treasuries - yields will dropWe have seen a historically dramatic selloff, and RSI and stochastic show a great entry to buy TLT. This is a good buy for an investment account.
TLT A Bullish Case For Bonds Multi year trend line support being tested here while indicators are oversold suggesting this ABC pattern may be completing this week
$spy $tlt $lqd Time to get long Bonds? I think soWe have a bullish engulfing pattern and a diverging RSI signal. Recession is coming time to be long bonds I think. Contrarian signal as well. Nobody wants bonds
TLT - Target Hit !!! 🥳🎈🎈I first called this back in September that TLT would hit $113 (then $114) and now in May my target is hit.
This was another call where I received comments that the chart doesn't matter because XYZ but really the chart does matter as this was just a 1:1 zig zag correction.
So what next?
Well... I dont know currently because a fibonacci projection is just a landmark for a potential reversal. It doesn't itself prove a reversal though there will probably be a lot of short covering in this area.
Also just below @ 111.9 there is a low from 2018 and there will be short covering there also which could potentially be a bottoming area.
However, from a charting perspective this can still go lower. There has been nothing noteworthy for the bullish case as yet.
And I had a charting comment on a previous page that questioned how indicators could be so oversold but not produce a bounce. And well the reason for that is because this could be a new trend unfolding.
It is worth noting though that the RSI here is slightly lower than previous low and there could be a reversal.
But all this depends on what type of wave this is currently. The potential C wave has been much steeper than than the A and that could mean it will form a 1:1.618 which would see it hit $95.
Or if there is a shakeout reversal at the lows here than that may prove to be a good buy signal. I'll wait and see.
Not advice.
Monthly chart of TLT. Next target 107 then maybe 100This monthly chart of TLT look pretty scary. 107 seems to be the next target then 100!
TLT's Death DomeVery bullish if you turn the chart upside down. It has clearly made a major top. Due for a bounce soon but it will only be a temporary reprieve before much higher long term interest rates are seen.
TLT MegphoneWe established a lear thesis for Bonds Back in July of 2021.
It is tracking and trading in Trend.
The trend is clear concise and direct.
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3.6 Interemdiate to 6%.
3.265 os the pivot.
Overbought?
Oversold?
No such thing in 40 year Trend reversals.
A complete collapse of the Equity Complex, might drive rates to 2%...
Lovely.
TLT heading down to long-term pitchfork lineLooking for a reaction off the lower medium line on this long-term pitchfork. Patience
you down with TLT? Yeah you know me!TLT should find support at 110-108 level. ABC Correction almost finished on the monthly chart. 250 + in the coming years, once pension and hedge funds start looking for long term safety.
TLT - The Vesper
"Three measures of Gordon's, one of Vodka, half a measure of Kina Lillet."
Best not to drink and drive, ya may just run into supthin...
OR...
FSD could end up taking you for a Ride.
Sh_t happens.
Hubris and the inability to compromise... lead to lots of Blood and Broken Glass.
