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TLT trade ideas

TLT - LongWe bought some earlier near 141 were buying some more here. Chart is setting up for a nice move higher but more importantly the macro tells us growth is slowing, in spite of rate hikes (6+) priced in, the fed will realize raising rates as growth slows would be disastrous and we will probably not get more than 2 and the inflation peak in commodity prices is likely already in. Consequently, we will remain shorting commodities, buying gold on pullbacks, out of equities excapt maybe our existing longs in XLP.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by bitofamacroman
1
Volatility/Treasury Unwind coming.Lots of buyers came in at the low 130's, people mistook these buyers for long volatility positions, volatility rose, people dumped equities for algo driven VOL strategies. I think we seen a spiral of bets unfold that don't represent the true market. Of course hedgies piled on to TLT, knowing full well that it is a great short term trade (and that adding uvxy calls to their reporting would be in bad taste). But that's just it, short term trade. Long term holders have added at the low 130's, the price they want. These adds aren't for profit, but for hedging government balance sheets and equity portfolios (huge whales). I expect the Fed to unwind more treasuries onto the market and for us to retest the lows around 130 which is where the Fed put on interest rates will feel comfortable for the rest of the year. The US treasury will yet again raise funds for whatever populist mid-term election strategy they have in mind, and for sure they need cash to send to Ukraine for kickbacks. Yes the DXY can handle a haircut, but no the bond market won't rally under these conditions as they are inflationary and bonds are a dead end for inflationary market. tldr: possible more upside to squeeze enemy hedge funds and safely bet on volatility, but expect the trade to unwind over the next few months. I'm not looking to make a play on treasuries, but instead long $xlf and low p/e banks like $gs
NASDAQ:TLT
by Arete-HI
$TLT BULLWith the current Macro backdrop, entities will go for protection in bonds and dollars. Russia being cut off is going to possibly cause a liquidity event. I have a feeling that this will cause mid term volatility, but the true sell-off crash won't happen for another 3-6 months... I can always be wrong, and it could start this week. I will be shorting equities this week if I see SPY reject 450s...will post on that soon I have been quiet for a reason, now I see the way. CHEERS
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by TraderHighCrowned
1
Shark/RectangleTLT is also trading an a Rectangle. A Bullish shark is also noted within the rectangle. Peak 2 is higher than peak one, so clues me in that this is a cypher or shark. PCZ passed the .786 which is landing pad for the Cypher. The .886 to .113 is the landing pad for the Shark. These 2 are very similar patterns with different landing pads. There are differences in the 2nd retracement leg as well. The shark has no rules for this leg other than it can not go below O. Also differences for the PCZ (Point of completion zone). The cypher lands at the .786 of XC and the shark lands at the .886 of OX. The shark is labeled OXABC and the Cypher is labeled XABCD. Both have peak 2 higher than peak 1. They both look like crooked Ms. The bottom trendline of the rectangle is support and there are several close bottoms there. There is also a negative crossover of the longer term moving averages marked with an orange X. The top of the rectangle is 151.30 and the bottom is 132.05. Mid rectangle is 142.95. No recommendation. A rectangle is a neutral pattern, the shark is not. Possible stop under rectangle support line where Mr. Market can not find it. Fund Profile iShares Trust - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is an exchange traded fund launched by BlackRock, Inc. The fund is managed by BlackRock Fund Advisors. It invests in the fixed income markets of the United States. The fund invests in U.S. dollar denominated fixed rate U.S. treasury securities with remaining maturity of greater than or equal to twenty years. It seeks to track the performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, by using representative sampling technique. iShares Trust - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF was formed on July 22, 2002 and is domiciled in the United States. The investment seeks to track the investment results of the ICE® U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (the "underlying index"). The fund generally invests at least 90% of its assets in the bonds of the underlying index and at least 95% of its assets in U.S. government bonds. The underlying index measures the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years. Benchmark: ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond TR USD
NASDAQ:TLT
by lauralea
Higher interest rates soon!Drew this scenario 6 months ago and sent it to my community members showcasing a possibility of future rates hikes and that is exactly what ended up happening. Additionally, keep in mind that there is always a negative correlation between bond yields and bond prices and when rates go up, the shares 20+ will continue going down. Bond prices will plummet. Note that I still think inflation will keep getting higher as I believe that only positive real interest rates matter at this stage and nothing else. Small increases will do nothing to inflation.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by marcyacoub
TLT Seemingly trading higher.TLT ETF seems to be in a good place to trade higher. Fundamentals back the technicals which is a really sweet spot for this particular ETF with the 20yr TB's. Expect a rise out of it over the coming weeks back to the previous highs and beyond but only look to "hodl" should price provide us with a bull breakout of the AP which is the previous weekly highs. If price rejects the highs then we suggest staying clear until the breakout takes place on the proviso you would have already removed any potential risk exposure previously accumalated.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by TheTradingRoom
Rising Interest Rates and BondsWith FOMC in focus this week and a general understanding that interest rates are going to rise I did some digging on one way to play a rising interest rate scenario. Key Points Bond price tend to underperform during periods of interest rate rising Longer bonds are more susceptible Shorting TLT could be a potential option First some basics: A bond is a fixed-income instrument that represents a loan made by an investor to a borrower. This bond will pay out at a fixed or variable interest rate called a coupon rate. Bond prices and it's yields inverse each other. The higher a bond price(or par value) rises the lower it's yield will fall. When interest rates rise bond prices generally decline as bonds are issued with the higher interest rate. Say you bought a bond yielding 5%. If a rate increase of say .5% happens before maturity suddenly your bond that yields 5% doesn't look as good as the new ones that are yielding 5.5%. This causes your bond to be worth less than what you initially paid for it. This .5% increase isn't a huge deal if your bond expires in 3 months. But when you start to look at bonds that expire in 5,10,20 years you really start to see the effects of missing out on that .5%. TLT tracks the bond prices of the 20 year treasury bonds. On the weekly TLT has put in another lower low, TTM is showing a squeeze currently pointed downward, and closed right at resistance. However over the past few days TLT has shown a few really nice candles with momentum starting to shift positive. I think some of this shift could be attributed to investors seeking some safer returns in the market selloff. Going long here before the FOMC meeting could prove to be an issue for those investors. I'm looking to short TLT if the daily momentum can start to shift in a negative manner and it doesn't put in a new higher high. If it does continue to shift positive and make that higher high will look to get into a short term long. I'm cautiously optimistic that we get some sort of relief bounce here on the indices which could also help with the short. I won't be making any moves until after the FOMC announcement on Wednesday though. Another thing to keep an eye on is the CPI reading in Feb. If inflation continues to come in higher than expected we could see short term bond prices begin to suffer. I don't think that reading will matter as much for the longer term (10+) year bonds. Lastly interest rate decisions generally take about a year before you start seeing any effects.
NASDAQ:TLT
by buddingmimir
The market is overly complacent about interest rate riskMarkets Have Been Celebrating No Corporate Tax Hike Stocks have been marching higher as the risk of a near-term corporate tax hike evaporated due to hard bargaining by centrist Democrats Joe Manchin and Kristen Sinema. Prediction markets are now putting the odds of no corporate tax hike at about 88%: www.predictit.org In fact, the single largest line item in the Build Back Better Act is actually a large tax *cut* which disproportionately benefits the highest earners. That's certainly a bullish development for markets, because it means more billionaire money chasing stocks. But They've Been Ignoring the Risk That Interest Rates Will Rise I think markets are ignoring interest rate risk, though. The passage of the Build Back Better act means that the US Treasury will be issuing a lot more treasury bonds over the next few years in order to fund new spending, and it will be doing so at a time when the Federal Reserve is tapering its bond-buying program. That means that private investors will have to absorb that over-supply of treasuries. And private investors are likely to demand higher interest rates than the Federal Reserve would. In other words, a supply-and-demand shock in the bond market could be about to send interest rates up. Bonds May Have Just Flashed a Warning Sign Today TLT (a major treasury bond ETF) made a big bearish engulfing candle today and closed below the 200-day EMA. (Bond prices move the opposite direction from rates, so rising rates = falling bonds.) The move came after the Fed's announcement that it will cut bond-buying in half this month and stop bond-buying altogether by mid-next year. I bought a TLT put yesterday and took profit on it today at the 200-day EMA for a 30% gain, but TLT actually continued downward and ended the day below the 200-day. It still has support from the 20-day EMA, so the question tomorrow is whether the 20-day will hold. If TLT doesn't hold support at the 20-day, then I think we're likely to see tech and pharma stocks follow it down. We could well be at the beginning of a significant correction for both bonds and stocks. Rising rates would be bad for growth companies, and especially bad for cash-poor companies that finance their growth through debt. (Pharmaceuticals, for instance, could be especially hard-hit.) Rising interest rates make it harder for those companies to get financing. The Nasdaq index has recently been selling off whenever rates rise (and bonds fall). Rising rates are better for banks than for tech, and could lead to outperformance by XLF. Smart Money Has Been Going Short Bonds for Months For the last couple months, a lot of smart money has been going short bonds on the expectation that bond rates will rise and bonds will fall. Ordinarily I'd hesitate to pile into such a crowded trade, but sometimes the crowd is right. The put/call ratio on TLT is 1.7, a big bearish bet. And an indirect way to be short bonds is to be short tech. The put/call ratio on the tech-heavy QQQ right now is an even more bearish 2.0. If you have heavy long exposure, especially to tech and growth, now is probably a good time to put some hedges on. Markets Have Been Celebrating No Corporate Tax Hike Stocks have been marching higher as the risk of a near-term corporate tax hike evaporated due to hard bargaining by centrist Democrats. In fact, the single largest line item in the Build Back Better Act is actually a large tax *cut* which disproportionately benefits the highest earners. That's certainly a bullish development for markets, because it means more billionaire money chasing stocks. But They've Been Ignoring the Risk That Interest Rates Will Rise I think markets are ignoring interest rate risk, though. The passage of the Build Back Better act means that the US Treasury will be issuing a lot more treasury bonds over the next few years in order to fund new spending, and it will be doing so at a time when the Federal Reserve is tapering its bond-buying program. That means that private investors will have to absorb that over-supply of treasuries, and they are likely to demand higher interest rates than the Federal Reserve would. A supply-and-demand shock in the bond market could be about to send interest rates up. Bonds May Have Just Flashed a Warning Sign Today TLT (a major treasury bond ETF) made a big bearish engulfing candle today and closed below the 200-day EMA. (Bond prices move the opposite direction from rates, so rising rates = falling bonds.) The move came after the Fed's announcement that it will cut bond-buying in half this month and stop bond-buying altogether by mid-next year. I had bought a TLT put yesterday and took profit on it today at the 200-day EMA for a 30% gain, but TLT actually continued downward and ended the day below the 200-day. It still has support from the 20-day EMA, so the question tomorrow is whether the 20-day will hold. If TLT doesn't hold support at the 20-day, then I think we're likely to see tech and pharma stocks follow it down. We could well be at the beginning of a significant correction for both bonds and stocks. Rising rates would be bad for growth companies, and especially bad for cash-poor companies that finance their growth through debt. (Pharmaceuticals, for instance, could be especially hard-hit.) Rising interest rates make it harder for those companies to get financing. The Nasdaq index has recently been selling off whenever rates rise (and bonds fall). Rising rates are better for banks than for tech, and could lead to outperformance by XLF. Smart Money Has Been Going Short Bonds for Months For the last couple months, a lot of smart money has been going short bonds on the expectation that bond rates will rise. (Bond prices move the opposite direction from rates, meaning that rising rates cause prices to go down.) Ordinarily I'd hesitate to pile into such a crowded trade, but sometimes the crowd is right. The put/call ratio on TLT is 1.7, a big bearish bet. And an indirect way to be short bonds is to be short tech. The put/call ratio on the tech-heavy QQQ right now is an even more bearish 2.0. Inflation Numbers Will Determine Where We Go from Here FOMC futures are currently forecasting that the Fed will hike rates 2-3 times by the end of next year, with a small chance of 4 rate hikes. As But as John Cochrane argues, FOMC futures have historically tended to be too hawkish: johnhcochrane.blogspot.com There's a lot of political incentive in Washington, D.C. to keep rates low, so the Fed almost certainly won't raise rates until inflation forces their hand. (Raising rates is primarily a tool to control inflation.) So keep an eye on the inflation numbers as we go forward from here. Inflation over the past decade has tended undershoot expectations, and many economists still believe that the current bout of inflation will prove to be transitory. So it may well turn out that we just get one or two rate hikes, and then inflation stabilizes and everything returns to normal. For now, I am expecting a short-term correction in both bonds and stocks, but a stabilization in the medium term. Shipping prices have been falling: And commodities prices look like they may start to come down as well: Hopefully these are early signs that inflation will be transitory after all. But the last reading on the Citi Inflation Surprise Index was an all-time high, so beware. If the pandemic has taught us anything, it's that there's definitely a limit to how far and fast we can push deficit spending before inflation kicks in. Pandemic deficit spending in 2020 caused high inflation in 2021. The question now is whether inflation will run away or normalize. This is an unprecedented situation, so nobody really knows. But a lot will depend on whether the Fed and Congress can practice some fiscal discipline, or at least convince markets that they will.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
15
TLT - Extreme Losses Ahead / Bond Market Peak March 2020Yields rising will only serve to further drive - ZN (10 Yr Futures), ZB (10 Yr Futures), and TLT into the Abyss. They have all broken down, with the 10 Yr Yield moving up significantly Friday back towards 1.8. We indicated over the past 7 Month the day of reckoning for Bonds was fast approaching. In November I doubled down with further warnings explaining in great detail the larger Issues for Bonds to reiterate the Intermediate and Long Term Risks. My Thesis for Bonds was they would become "perpetual" Instruments whereby Holders would be able to clip their Coupons but unable to redeem them one day in the not too distant Future. The Debt cannot be serviced, even with cheaper Dollars. We see the effects of all the excesses sloshing around. It will continue to choose valueless propositions outside of Real Estate, Equities, Metals, Commodities, Energy and Meta in the Wings. The Wind cried Mary over and overstating it was lunacy, Bonds would benefit in any serious Selling of Equities. In Sum, I was the fool, idiot, and wrong in the absolute. This has not happened, instead, the conventional analysis, dependent on a Paradigm that no longer exists... it failed and very badly. The Curve is not steepening. This is where the Bond Participants, Touts, and YouTube Tribe - got it 100% wrong. It is quite simple - there are Capital Stocks for rotation, Equities will eventually see inflows as Bonds continue their collapse. TLT will be decimated as will ZN and ZB. As Captial from Bonds flows to Equities once the breakdown finds Bond Buyers exiting the Complex as they realize their mistake(s) - this will serve to drive Equities far Higher for a short period of time. This will be the 5/5 of the Larger 5/5 for the Equities Complex. We will see a parabolic melt-up in Equities once this begins - after this correction completes. It will be the Fuel for the Final move up in the Equity Complex. The Federal Reserve will, at some point, go too far, make a large Policy mistake and then Equities will collapse. ________________________________________________________________________________________________ It takes time to turn a Battleship. Bonds have turned from the Historic End of their Supreme reign for decades. Price may range for a short period of time, but make no mistake, Bonds have entirely lost their Status Globally. If you somehow believe the Federal Reserve will support the Bond Complex, you have had multiple opportunities to see the Forrest and no longer trip on twigs. It has been detailed here since July of 2021.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
8