TLT analysis using only great indicators ... TLT analysis using only great indicators ... demark 2x , divergence for many indicators
TLT trade ideas
TLT....make or break!US yields have continued their move higher after our accurate call for a breather and our suggested targets were reached a few weeks ago in our february call for 10y yields. TLT has now moved to the "support" area that has proven to be a good buying opportunity a number of times in the last 15yrs. Inflation is here to stay and the FED who has been late seems ready to fight it with more aggresive hikes and QT in the comming months. Does this means that inflation and rates have peaked in the short term as the market has fully priced it in? We think there is a good chance for it, and we think that TLT could prove to be a good buying opportunity at current lvls ($126) for a trade. ultimatley rates will move higher, and the trend will break, but we dont think we are there yet as economy is slowing down and asset markets are likely to correct in the next few weeks/months.
TLT ReversalNASDAQ:TLT is showing signs of reversal with a reaction off the low of March 25th. Today's catalyst of dividend payouts made it open right at the 50% Retracement Level. If price holds this level a good Risk/Reward trade would take price back to 141 which is the 50% Retracement of the last few months' down trend.
TLT at 50% Fib retracement and approaching long term supportThe ETF TLT which is made up of long term US government bonds has been in a bear market for a couple of years.
It is now reaching lows which are at inflection points that could trigger a reversal.
Both Fib golden ratio and long term volume support as well as the bottom of a long term channel could be reached very soon.
If this long term dip gets bought it would also indicate a change in the trend of long term yields which also could trigger significant moves higher in the Nasdaq.
TLT 30m wolfe wave bullish 3/25A Wolfe Wave is a chart pattern composed of five wave patterns in price that imply an underlying equilibrium price. Investors who use this system time their trades based upon the resistance and support lines indicated by the pattern.
H&S Pattern Confirmed - Almost OversoldLooking at a few possible bottoms, the news cycle has been vicious for bonds, this is the sort of news you see at a possible bottom. Full on capitulation to get those bottom barrel discounts. RSI just entered oversold, but barely, going to start looking at taking a position, but not yet. It is attractive, but not free money yet. Likely want to take a position in the futures market instead of TLT calls and will start with 30 yr analysis.
Possible Bonds Breaking out?Bonds appear to be breaking out alongside DXY.
Record amounts of shorts have been piled onto Bonds to the order of 4 sigma - everyone and their dog is short bonds - so you know what that means!
Rates aren't rising, the Bond market sees what is coming - and it is deflationary. Use a leveraged Bond ETF such as TMF to capture the big move in bonds!
TOP WAVE STRUCTURE MAJOR LOW IN TLT .786RISKOFF trade is about to start the TLT is now in one of the lowest risk net longs in sometime . I view the wave a deflationary forces has started . and see major breakdown now in most everything that is in the form of a asset . I have now picked up a position in tlt calls as well . best of trades WAVETIMER
Long Bonds as yields hit resistanceYields have hit resistance and Bonds are showing potential strength. Here's $TLT at a bear extension to 1.272... A possible buy point.
TLT adding someAdding some TLT today, think the longend of the curve is pretty much done, I'd still be short on durations less than 5Y
$TLT, Bonds long ideaAfter the whole round trip that started when covid hit, I think we are getting closer to a big, long position in bonds. The price range on the chart is where I will start buying and expecting to see seller exhaustion and trouble pushing it down further. Sentiment is really weak and you have people late to party trying to short right now to pick pennies in front of a steamroller. As an ideal target for $TLT we are talking $150 at least, so, due to the magnitude of the move, we are talking about a long term position or around 6 months out. Obviously seeing the volatility in this period and the little liquidity in markets I could be wrong, meaning the move much quicker. GL
$TLT head & shoulder$TLT just broken down from a weekly head & shoulder pattern. If measured move plays out, could see under 100.
TLTHead & shoulders on bonds. Could be a volatile year. Either it resolves to the downside & is a false breakdown & rips hard to the upside imo. Potential bullish RSI divergence noted. Bullish above $135, bearish below $133.
Rates Gone WildInterest rates are flying off the chart, is there an end in sight? Most likely... Yes!
VIX vs TLT/LQD suggests bear is near. Back away slowly! VIX has been spiking with TLT/LQD, but the last few times just seemed to help turn it around. Looks similar to the new year, in orange. Volatility has been exploding, per usual. Every 2 years since 2008, Vix has made a new support 3pts higher, shown in solid white. I just read an analyst saying 18 is likely the bottom for some time. TLT/LQD has also been on a years long up trend as well, at a similar pace. So I'm inclined to belief this is a good spot to watch for a long scalp VIX entry, and shorts on the indices.
TLT BreakThe iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) tracks an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities greater than twenty years. The price of TLT goes down as interest on 20+ year U.S. treasuries goes up. High inflation is driving interest rates ever higher . If inflation does not slow soon, a decades-long trend could end, as this chart is warning.
The monthly exponential moving average (EMA) ribbons have experienced their worse violation in the fund's 20 year history. Typically the monthly EMA ribbons act as very strong long term support. The lower 55 month EMA band can act as a low risk to reward long entry. The price at which the monthly candle closes is determinative.
Fortunately, there is roughly an 80% chance that the 20-year bull trend in the price of TLT will hold in March 2022. (This probability comes from the standard deviation from the monthly mean). So for now, at least, the trend is likely to continue. However, the chart suggests that the decades-long trend is dangerously close to breaking.
buy TLT Calls $130 1/20/2023I buy $785 for one contact is TLT Calls strike $130, expired 1/20/2023, entry $7.85
its nice to invest it and we will have time until Jan 2023!
TLT - Daily / An Abomination of DebtEventually, perhaps... the 007s will come to understand and accept that the Bond Bull has ended.
TLT will be reduced to a Double-Digit Midget - another JunkcCo ETF used to entangle the Kingdom of
the Rain Dilletanttes.
Nixon knew it back in 1973.
Volker knew it in 1979 when Debt to GDP was nearly Nada.
Now it's well over 200% by Non-Fuzzy Math.
Unsure how anyone conceives of buying this using any/all rationale metrics but they do.
Simply an amazing denial of reality.
To each their own.
Treasuries Continue to Toss their Cookies20-year US Treasury bonds already broke an important level of support (red arrow) and yet again, the ETF finds itself at a crucial crossroads as rates continue to rise, punishing the long-end of the yield curve.
"We" have been taught (as a country) to think "bonds are safe," yet we can clearly see that these 20-year bonds, backed by the full faith of the U.S. Government, are getting curb stomped, losing almost -20% over the course of the last 18 months.
But are bonds "safe," really? It's a seriously problem in our industry - at least I think so...
For any investor with a "Balanced" (i.e. - 60/40) or worse yet, "Conservative" (40/60) portfolio model, how do you (as the investor) react to a portfolio that's losing money, not only because stocks are falling in value, but because bonds are getting taken to the cleaners as well?
Not to go out on a limb here, but I'm going to make the assumption that most of those on TradingView are a little more knowledgable than the average investor. Furthermore, I'd go so far as to say that most are probably avoiding the bond market like we avoided COVID-19 in March of 2020.
I won't make blanket advice here and say to that, "Well.... good, then!"
However, I WILL say that at our office, we've been underweighting bonds, overweighting stocks and commodities, and tweaking the target allocations a bit (to all our models) to make up for the possibility that we might be coming out of a 35-year bull market in bonds, as the pendulum swings toward higher long-term rates 3, 5, 10+ years from now.
While we don't own any 20-year Treasuries at our office, if you DO, I'd be looking at the horizontal line in the sand below current price, which could act as a potential level of support... but if broken, all bets are off.
