TLT predictionprobs one more drop get folks selling then send it NOT TRADING ADVICE GRI 2022by Great_Reset_InvestingUpdated 0
is sp500 topping out soon?this chart is TLT/JNK and TLT and SPY overlayed. Blue=sp500 orange=TLT candle= TLT/JNKby JZRG110
TLT BOTTOM NEW BULL PHASE 147 NEXTWe have ended the drop in TLT today we will now see a run first to 147 area Then I will post as to what the next move could be . But for now long TLT Longby wavetimerUpdated 0
TLT - 20Yr Bond ETFThe Monthly Chart continues to expand in Range. This is interesting as the Range Broadens the implications are quite Dire longer term. TLT was sold heavily prior to the ROC SPike in TNX. ZN was sold on Volume as well, an Instrument we have repeatedly discussed for its weakening structure. __________________________________________________________ Attempting to apply "Convention and Rationale" to an aging Trend is generally, an Idea whose validity should begin to come into question. FASB 56 alone is enough to bring the operations within the Shadows of the Bond Market under duress over time. It is clear the BIS is backstopping this operation - at what cost, we can only surmise. ___________________________________________________________ The Real Issue moving forward for the Bond Complex is one of simplicity. Rates will, in the Short Ter react to Policy and the perceived threat of Inflation. Shadow Operations will require time to unfold, but we believe this process has begun, it will not be brought into he light of Day any time soon, but will eventually, appear in the form of unexplained loss of confidence around the Globe. This will, of course, be devastating to the US Dollar. rendering it a 50 Level once 82 and then 77 are broken. _____________________________________________________________ The competition between China and the United States is well underway and is accelerating on many fronts. With the US Losing its advantages due to its inability to produce Value across former dominant Sectors of Global Trade - a 22nd Century pivot to Asia will continue to gain in both scope and scale, as well as velocity. Financial Isolationism within the approaching rebalancing of Global financial Arrangements will render the US to a weighted SDR status with less than favorable terms and conditions. This will have a devastating effect on the US Bond Market. The curve will be converted to a Perpetual Duration with Principals retired. A balance sheet liability which cannot be reduced without far greater and far more insidious distortions. It can never be eliminated. Never, it is not mathematically possible. Therefore it will be erased to bring balance. Think of it as the FDIC/SPIC coming to save $250K of your $20 Million. You lose, they win. They default in an extraordinary manner and provide token assurance that... one day... they swear to make you whole. It will never happen. ___________________________________________________________ This is axiomatic, pure, and simple. Regardless of the Gyrations... The Future is not "Uncertain" with respect to Bonds and how they will be all but eliminated.by HK_L6110
TLT at GPWe are at GP let see if we get a reaction. not a lot more to say here really Longby wrglyUpdated 220
It's been rough, guys...Yep, everyone's bleeding to the teeth... More leveraged folks had to make decision on their margin calls... It hasn't been pretty... But as a friend told me recently, "All markets are red Just a matter of when and which stocks/coins rebound first Same cycle Same game" ^Disclaimer: Above is not a Haiku poem (but yes i formatted it as such) So back to basics: What are we seeing here: - 10-year Treasury is popping - 20-year Treasury lost steam - Dow Jones broke out & lost steam (R @ 36526 to 36626 --- rejected 369ish - let's say 37000 for now) - VIX looks like it's getting for some real action in about 2 to 8 weeks It's rated as Neutral because who the #### knows (or we can say ONLY THE LORD KNOWS). Fasten your seat belts. Turbulence (or opportunity) ahead. Rooting (reluctantly) for: - Genomics sector - $SHIB Shiba Inu coin - $CAKE Pancake Swap coin - $BNGO Bionano Genomics - $SOFI SoFi - $VLD Velo3D and last but not least - $JEWEL DeFi Kingdoms --- really interesting Let me know what you guys think for the upcoming 2022. Cheers & wishing peace and prosperity to everyone!! (And ofc I can't do that but only the LORD can). Cheers, Noob Investor by thelords0
TLT - LONGAs we know, news media and their narratives are far behind. In fact, inflation began back in late 2020 and continued all throughout 2021. Now it has peaked, as commodities and the CRB are signaling lower highs into mania. There is a nice pattern forming on the daily here, so watch the lower time frame for a reversal and flag. Can also buy Gold and Real Estate EX ITB or the like, and probably be comfortable on the short side of most commodities. Longby bitofamacroman3
TLT Looks the most likely scenario to me Inflation hedges are not doing well Something has to give GRI 2022 Trade at your own riskby Great_Reset_Investing2
TLT - Daily / 3 Drives @ 149 and Fails Currently the 10 Year Note Yield @ 1.725 -0.008 -0.47%. What seemingly took a long time to begin to complete finally did. __________________________________________________________ There is a great deal in the Wind with respect to TLT presently. LArger Daily Gaps well below with Price Objectives extending to the 134 to 139 Levels - attendant Gap FIlls included. It will depend on ZN's breakdown and whether Yeidls simply Sky to our overhead Price Objectives 1.82 / 1.91 / 2.02 / 2.12 / 2.28 to 3.50 The Inflation Recalc will provide cover for a Retracement next week. Exceeding the 2021 Highs will be a stark warning for the Bond Holders who have been smoked for 1000 Bips in several Months. Chasing Highs while the Inflation persistence was building in all Core Data... generally unwise. We have maintained that Wave 4 would be an Everything Must Go Sale. SO far, so good, it's a THesis that time and again has proven to be correct and how long it extends will depend on a number of factors. We don't see a larger Equity Sell as supportive in a rising rate environment. The SHort end of the Curve appears to be supportive as well. _______________________________________________________________ McDonald's entered 2022 with 14.5% price increases across the Menu. Big Mac's in Bonds give way to Filet o' Fish. by HK_L6118187
Rates UP, Bonds DOWNThe FED has and will be hawkish until (if ever) they get these markets under control and back to reasonable valuations. TLT has fallen out of its wedge and heading further to the downside. Mid-term target is $122 and possibly further as rates rise. Not Financial AdviceShortby FiboTrader1881
$TLT selling off to $138-141 before rallying higherTLT looks to be close to finding a bottom. I could see TLT finding a bottom in the $138-141 range then basing for a couple of weeks before rallying higher in early November. Key dates and levels on the chart. My macro thesis is that we're at the start of a larger pullback in markets and money will flow to treasuries as a safety net. Dates align on both the S&P bottom and TLT top around March... Let's see how it plays out. Longby benjihyamUpdated 334
Interest Rates Rising - Short TLTTLT breaking down on weekly trend line as long term treasury rates spike. This could spill trouble to equity markets particularly high valued growth. Keep on eye on TLT or TNX. Shortby Audacity6180
TLT MACROSTILL VERY BULLISH Action reaction chart Pitchforks off pivots TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISKby Great_Reset_InvestingUpdated 221
TLT and MOVE Index, going in opposite directions soon?What is MOVE Index trying to tell us about TLT in the immediate future? Shortby PROTRAY110
Pivots or Swing Highs and Lows- IPivots are essential in many forms of TA- including the TA i mainly use which is Action-Reaction aka pitchforks Pivots may also be termed swing highs or lows Pivots and swing highs/lows may be harder to define than one first imagines I would define a pivot or swing as follows: A focus of Price Action (PA) which becomes a reversal point This is important because either a V shape or inverse V in PA does not equate with a pivot/swing An acute angle in price may become a pivot or swing in hindsight IF it breaks the trend which price was previously moving along G.R.I. Dec '21 KEY P1 pivot one - price in uptrend along blue diagonal P2- becomes a swing high WHEN blue diagonal is broken to the downside P3- becomes a swing low WHEN yellow diagonal is broken to the upside P4- becomes a swing high WHEN green diagonal is broken to the downside P5- becomes a swing low WHEN pink diagonal is broken to the upside P6- becomes a swing high WHEN purple diagonal is broken to the downside P7- becomes a swing low WHEN green diagonal is broken to the upside Educationby Great_Reset_InvestingUpdated 1
TLT - DailyRemarkable how poorly this has performed. The 2 / 10 is causing some issues as there is a fear of contagion. After $12 Trillion in Corporate Junk Issuance to BUY Shares in 2021... Convention would lead one to assume UST's would be bid in greater size and yet the Short end is now catching the attention as 2Yr's went off without a hitch, No Fed, No Need. The ISsue is the Long end of the Curve is eating itself as it believes Inflation will be a persistent RISK. Housing... another issue Globally. ___________________________________________________________________ ZB isn't wrong, nor are the Buyers on Strike with 3 back to back failed auctions. TLT breaking the 50 with ZN Pointing South require a wait n' see position. The AO has dipped into Negative territory... while the price struggles to hold. Neagtive Divergeences abound.by HK_L61Updated 14148
BOndS ONly GO upThe blow off top will be cool Lol Simple chart But if you're betting in inflation now you're betting against this Welcome to a degrowth world TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK G.R.I. Dec '21by Great_Reset_Investing3
Closed: TLT March 18th 151/2 x 163 Ratio Backspread... for a 26.21 credit. Comments: Filled this bearish assumption back ratio on TLT strength for 23.99 (See Post Below). Manually closed it today for a 26.21 credit; 2.22 ($222) profit; 9.3% ROC.by NaughtyPines442
TLT Predicted Path (UGC)On the basis of previous ideas I have switched to linear scale And assuming the cycle low is in This might be the path NOT TRADING ADVICELongby Great_Reset_InvestingUpdated 1
TLT Unified Global Charting '21-'25 CyclePlease see my previos UGC ideas Using geometry, cycles, pivots and time This is what i expect for TLT For the next 3 years NO ADVICE GIVEN TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISKLongby Great_Reset_InvestingUpdated 0
TLT: Unified Global ChartingIn this idea we analyse the TLT chart From the perspective of Time Cycles & Geometry TLT has been making 3/4 year cycles since the GFC G.R.I. Dec '21 Longby Great_Reset_InvestingUpdated 0
Unified Global Charting III: TimeFrom the GFC in 08/9 we can observe a circa 4 year cycle for TLT (high to high) In this idea i plan to turn our attention to time I have used the fibonacci time (trend based) tool to further subdivide this Let's see what else time/cycle analysis can tell us about goverment bonds G.R.I. Dec '21 Educationby Great_Reset_InvestingUpdated 0
Unified Global Charting: IIThis is the evolution of a charting concept based on time, pivots and price We are looking at the 20+ year treasury bond ETF TLT as i think this is a vital chart for the coming decade Here i have added in a 'mother' pitchfork off the three marked major pivots I plan to add some analysis below G.R.I Dec '21by Great_Reset_InvestingUpdated 0