TLT- Flight to SafetyTLT will soon become (its already started if youve been paying attention) a major safe haven
Rate cuts are imminent and is typical of the market...so is a corresponding market crash
Weve already caught our flight...have you?
TLT trade ideas
US Jobs Disappoint - Inflation on DeckThe "September Effect" is in full bloom as the markets are down 4-5% from September's first trading week.
10 year average for September is -.9%
70 year average for September is -.7%
We may see high volatility all over again with Aug 5 lows being threatened, or we may see the risk off tone has been front loaded and next week is all about inflation with US CPI/PPI to potentially fend off more selling with improvements in the inflation trends (e.g. lower inflation = better for market sentiment).
This video is a bit longer, but I appreciate you checking it out and watching. Once we're through inflation news, it's all about the FED on Sep 18, then more employment/inflation news, then election. Those are major catalysts to posture us for the remainder of the year.
Long-term investors the game is simple
Short-term investors are all over the place
Profits and Losses happen, just don't do anything silly.
Enjoy the weekend!!!
Market Update - 9/7/2024• no setups, screener results are the worst I've seen in a while, breadth is worsening
• weak employment data, yield curve uninversion was driving a lot of the move down
• might have a rebound or a calm week next week, but generally, I see more downside ahead
• I'm mostly short, not looking to enter long until markets stabilize
TLT + Rate CutsTLT bullish trend into 100 resistance with major Fed decisions coming in the next weeks/months. Has a gap to fill on the way to highest pt
Pts are 98.30, 98.70, and 100+
- Shifted narrative from inflation to labor market
- Data suggests Fed is very behind the curve
- Jackson Hole
- FOMC
Short term price action on TLTShort term price action has formed a descending wedge pattern that is attractive when it breaks. Keep your eyes on this and FOLLOW YOUR STRATEGY.
Economic Uncertainty and Market Volatility: Recent economic data and geopolitical tensions have introduced significant uncertainty into the global markets. This uncertainty often drives investors toward safer assets, such as long-term government bonds. TLT, which tracks long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, stands to benefit from increased demand as investors seek stability.
Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve's current stance on interest rates plays a crucial role. If the Fed signals a pause or reduction in rate hikes due to concerns about economic slowdown or financial stability, long-term bond yields could decrease. Lower yields on new issues make existing bonds with higher coupons more attractive, thus boosting TLT’s value.
Inflationary Pressures: Persistent inflationary pressures may lead the Fed to adopt a more cautious approach. If inflation remains above the Fed’s target, the central bank might focus on avoiding aggressive rate hikes, which would help keep long-term yields low and benefit TLT.
Diminishing Bond Supply: As the U.S. government continues to manage its debt levels, the supply of long-term bonds could be constrained. A reduced supply of new long-term Treasury bonds could increase the value of existing bonds, including those held by TLT.
Global Yield Compression: In a low global yield environment, U.S. Treasuries, particularly long-term ones, remain attractive compared to international alternatives. As other countries experience lower or negative yields, international investors may increase their holdings in U.S. long-term bonds, further supporting TLT.
Flight to Quality: In times of heightened risk aversion, such as during financial crises or economic downturns, investors often turn to high-quality assets like U.S. Treasuries. This flight to quality can lead to increased inflows into TLT, driving up its price.
the case for further pain in bondsmaking the case if the parabola fits, seems to fit better than what has been drawn before, what if personal bias can make things seem rosier than they really are
To much volume at lows to continue chopFrom the lows after 2023 bottom, we have seen TLT do nothing much at all in the short term time frame.
If we zoom out, they disconnected at the 2023 lows. This told me last year that we will see the lows again after TLT has time to recharge and balance the market back out.
This disconnect has everyone scratching there heads on a recession among other key factors, but not to many people have the long term patience to see it play out.
Inverse Head & Shoulders $TLT ETF Weekly ChartInverse Head & Shoulders NASDAQ:TLT ETF Weekly Chart The NASDAQ:TLT ETF weekly chart, which tracks 20-year+ Treasuries, shows an inverse head & shoulders pattern still intact. 📊 U.S. Treasury funds have attracted billions in inflows over the past couple of weeks, fueled by rising expectations of rate cuts and growing investor confidence in long-term government bonds. 💵 However, there's resistance at the $100 level— NASDAQ:TLT needs to break this level before heading higher. 📈🚀
#USTreasury #Bonds #FixedIncome #Investing #Finance NASDAQ:TLT #RateCuts #MarketTrends #ETF
Opened (IRA): TLT Feb 21st 83 Short Put... for a 1.39 credit.
Comments: Targeting the 52 week low on weakness here after taking off a rung in September.
ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS TLT BONDS: 20 AUG, 2024© Master of Elliott Waves: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M.
Bonds, Wave (iii)-orange is unfolding to push higher; it is subdividing into wave ((2))-blue, and appears to be unfolding to push lower. Specifically, it is developing as a Zigzag, labeled (A)(B)(C)-orange, wave (B)-orange is nearing completion of its role. Finally, wave ((3))-blue could return to push higher.
While price must remain above 91.47 to maintain this view. A break below this level would indicate an alternate wave count scenario is in play.
$TLT Weekly Chart Inverse Head Shoulders" NASDAQ:TLT Weekly Chart: Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern was triggered last week. 📈 This could signal a potential reversal and further upside for long-term Treasuries. Are you watching this breakout? #TLT #TechnicalAnalysis #BondMarket #Investing #ChartPatterns"
TLT ExplosionTLT, as we predicted last year is shaping up to be very explosive
Its so far one of our best performing trades in our 2024 portfolio
RATE CUTS ARE IMMINENT
TLT Bonds: 14 AUG, 2024© Master of Elliott Wave Analysis: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M.
10 YR Yields, the main trend is bearish. Currently wave (C)-orange is unfolding to push lower.
Wave ((iv))-navy has just completed at 4.022%, and wave ((v))-navy is unfolding to push lower, targeting the immediate target at 3.676%. While price must remain below 4.022% to maintain this view.
Time for TLTThe 20-year Treasury Bond ETF 'TLT' is looking good now that the Federal Reserve has stated that an interest rate cut could come as early as September if inflation continues to fall. The fact that Fed chairman Jerome Powell is now using dovish language and naming dates for potential cuts is cause enough to consider shifting some money to bonds. The swift selloff in stocks earlier this week is also good reason to be cautious in equities and bullish bonds, still waiting to see if that was a one-time dip or the start of something more prolonged. We also have rising unemployment, record personal debt and increasing rates of delinquency in auto loans that signal potential recession ahead. At this point it's not a question of 'if' rates cuts and money printing are going to happen, but 'when', especially if we see markets turn back down in a significant way and/or a continued move higher in unemployment.
TLT has recently broke above a short-term resistance line as the 20-year treasury bond yield broke below a short-term support line which shows how inversely correlated they are. If we can expect bond yields to come down via Fed rate cuts then we can expect bond prices to go up. TLT is the most popular bond ETF and I've personally been buying ever since price fell below $100 last year with the intention of building a large position ahead of inevitable rate cuts. I'll stop buying when rate cuts begin and then ride TLT until it looks like a bottom in rates is in, and then sell the entire position and flip long stocks.
TLT LONG TLT could be an attractive investment if the Fed cuts rates for numerous reasons.
Price Appreciation: When interest rates decline, the price of existing long term bonds held by TLT tend rise. The fixed interest payments of these bonds become more attractive compared to new bonds issued at lower rates .
Lower Yield Environment: As interest rates fall, the yield on newly issued bonds decreases. Investors seeking higher yields may shift their investments to longer duration bonds like those in TLT, which typically offers higher yields than short term bonds.
Stable Income: TLT provides regular interest income through its holdings. In a lower interest environment, the relative stability and predictability of this income can be appealing.
Lastly, TLT has broken out of what I believe to be an inverted H&S pattern. This is a sign of a potential reversal. I am expecting a big move to the upside from this stock due to the current economic environment around the Fed cutting rates.
Wave 3 Up?If this is a real wave 3 up then look for price to solidly hold above 96. If not then (2) may not have been complete and we look for a running flat as a longer in time wave (2) staying above the lower trendline.
TLTMid 90s may be a decent entry on TLT. Yields should continue to drop, especially if we see further deterioration in the labor force.
TLT LONG SETUPWatching this red box area as highlighted on chart, if TLT starts to trade above this area again this sets up a beautiful failed breakdown setup for a move into 94, 100 and then 105-114.
Need to clear 90 for the pattern to trigger/activate and then we go from there.
TLT-LONGTLT swing opportunity as interest rates are expected to remain stable through September, and the market appears to be approaching a top near the upcoming elections. In such an environment, the demand for safer assets like long-term Treasury bonds is likely to increase as investors seek stability amid growing market uncertainty. With TLT's portfolio of 20+ year Treasury bonds, the ETF stands to benefit from this flight to safety, potentially driving up its price. This makes TLT an attractive option for swing traders looking to capitalize on the anticipated market volatility and the relative stability of bond yields in the short term.
TLT Roadmap Dec 2023Yields are likely in early stages of significant multi-month retrace lower into summer 2024
Is the Bond market trying to tell us something ? NASDAQ:TLT breaking out on an absolute and relative term to the S&P500.
Market Update - 8/4/2024• recession fears, everything selling off
• only have 4 positions, all short: BCBA:BMA NYSE:ANF NASDAQ:ALAR NASDAQ:RXST
• my NASDAQ:TLT long is finally working
• not many good setups, breadth is weak, not looking to enter long positions in the near future
• want to get passive long exposure on AMEX:IWM
