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TLT trade ideas

US Jobs Disappoint - Inflation on DeckThe "September Effect" is in full bloom as the markets are down 4-5% from September's first trading week. 10 year average for September is -.9% 70 year average for September is -.7% We may see high volatility all over again with Aug 5 lows being threatened, or we may see the risk off tone has been front loaded and next week is all about inflation with US CPI/PPI to potentially fend off more selling with improvements in the inflation trends (e.g. lower inflation = better for market sentiment). This video is a bit longer, but I appreciate you checking it out and watching. Once we're through inflation news, it's all about the FED on Sep 18, then more employment/inflation news, then election. Those are major catalysts to posture us for the remainder of the year. Long-term investors the game is simple Short-term investors are all over the place Profits and Losses happen, just don't do anything silly. Enjoy the weekend!!!
NASDAQ:TLT
by ChrisPulver
3
Short term price action on TLTShort term price action has formed a descending wedge pattern that is attractive when it breaks. Keep your eyes on this and FOLLOW YOUR STRATEGY. Economic Uncertainty and Market Volatility: Recent economic data and geopolitical tensions have introduced significant uncertainty into the global markets. This uncertainty often drives investors toward safer assets, such as long-term government bonds. TLT, which tracks long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, stands to benefit from increased demand as investors seek stability. Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve's current stance on interest rates plays a crucial role. If the Fed signals a pause or reduction in rate hikes due to concerns about economic slowdown or financial stability, long-term bond yields could decrease. Lower yields on new issues make existing bonds with higher coupons more attractive, thus boosting TLT’s value. Inflationary Pressures: Persistent inflationary pressures may lead the Fed to adopt a more cautious approach. If inflation remains above the Fed’s target, the central bank might focus on avoiding aggressive rate hikes, which would help keep long-term yields low and benefit TLT. Diminishing Bond Supply: As the U.S. government continues to manage its debt levels, the supply of long-term bonds could be constrained. A reduced supply of new long-term Treasury bonds could increase the value of existing bonds, including those held by TLT. Global Yield Compression: In a low global yield environment, U.S. Treasuries, particularly long-term ones, remain attractive compared to international alternatives. As other countries experience lower or negative yields, international investors may increase their holdings in U.S. long-term bonds, further supporting TLT. Flight to Quality: In times of heightened risk aversion, such as during financial crises or economic downturns, investors often turn to high-quality assets like U.S. Treasuries. This flight to quality can lead to increased inflows into TLT, driving up its price.
NASDAQ:TLT
by FlyingWiener69
Inverse Head & Shoulders $TLT ETF Weekly ChartInverse Head & Shoulders NASDAQ:TLT ETF Weekly Chart The NASDAQ:TLT ETF weekly chart, which tracks 20-year+ Treasuries, shows an inverse head & shoulders pattern still intact. 📊 U.S. Treasury funds have attracted billions in inflows over the past couple of weeks, fueled by rising expectations of rate cuts and growing investor confidence in long-term government bonds. 💵 However, there's resistance at the $100 level— NASDAQ:TLT needs to break this level before heading higher. 📈🚀 #USTreasury #Bonds #FixedIncome #Investing #Finance NASDAQ:TLT #RateCuts #MarketTrends #ETF
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by AlgoTradeAlert
ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS TLT BONDS: 20 AUG, 2024© Master of Elliott Waves: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M. Bonds, Wave (iii)-orange is unfolding to push higher; it is subdividing into wave ((2))-blue, and appears to be unfolding to push lower. Specifically, it is developing as a Zigzag, labeled (A)(B)(C)-orange, wave (B)-orange is nearing completion of its role. Finally, wave ((3))-blue could return to push higher. While price must remain above 91.47 to maintain this view. A break below this level would indicate an alternate wave count scenario is in play.
NASDAQ:TLT
by ShaneHua
2
Time for TLTThe 20-year Treasury Bond ETF 'TLT' is looking good now that the Federal Reserve has stated that an interest rate cut could come as early as September if inflation continues to fall. The fact that Fed chairman Jerome Powell is now using dovish language and naming dates for potential cuts is cause enough to consider shifting some money to bonds. The swift selloff in stocks earlier this week is also good reason to be cautious in equities and bullish bonds, still waiting to see if that was a one-time dip or the start of something more prolonged. We also have rising unemployment, record personal debt and increasing rates of delinquency in auto loans that signal potential recession ahead. At this point it's not a question of 'if' rates cuts and money printing are going to happen, but 'when', especially if we see markets turn back down in a significant way and/or a continued move higher in unemployment. TLT has recently broke above a short-term resistance line as the 20-year treasury bond yield broke below a short-term support line which shows how inversely correlated they are. If we can expect bond yields to come down via Fed rate cuts then we can expect bond prices to go up. TLT is the most popular bond ETF and I've personally been buying ever since price fell below $100 last year with the intention of building a large position ahead of inevitable rate cuts. I'll stop buying when rate cuts begin and then ride TLT until it looks like a bottom in rates is in, and then sell the entire position and flip long stocks.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by PrepForProfit
3
TLT LONG TLT could be an attractive investment if the Fed cuts rates for numerous reasons. Price Appreciation: When interest rates decline, the price of existing long term bonds held by TLT tend rise. The fixed interest payments of these bonds become more attractive compared to new bonds issued at lower rates . Lower Yield Environment: As interest rates fall, the yield on newly issued bonds decreases. Investors seeking higher yields may shift their investments to longer duration bonds like those in TLT, which typically offers higher yields than short term bonds. Stable Income: TLT provides regular interest income through its holdings. In a lower interest environment, the relative stability and predictability of this income can be appealing. Lastly, TLT has broken out of what I believe to be an inverted H&S pattern. This is a sign of a potential reversal. I am expecting a big move to the upside from this stock due to the current economic environment around the Fed cutting rates.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by BlackSheepFinancial