TLT - ONLY HIGHER FROM HERESetting up for a break above March 2020 downtrend line into the top of this ascending triangle. November 22 is the Apex
TLT trade ideas
TLT NEW BULL WAVE HAS STARTED 150 AREA CYCLE LOW IN TLT . I am now very bullish the TLT long side into nov 22 to dec 10 . My forecast for the 10 yr to see 1.62 . was seen I took profits and told traders to exit now .We now have a clear wave structure in TLT for a wave abc down for wave B low . this could be why I have the sp 500 ready to crash into a mini panic into its cycle low due oct 18th . BUT for now I would only be on the long side of TLT . I am now long a 50% at 143 and will add on a buy stop at 145.10 25% . We also saw the low hit right on the bottom of the Bollinger Bands best of trades WAVETIMER
tlt bear trap below channel midline?tlt bear trap below channel midline? dunno which way it gonna go.
TLT - Breaking 140.67 on ToothlessWill end badly for the 007s as it can follow ZN back to the 2021 Lows.
We will likely see yet another G A P this morning as ZN appears to be
hunting the 129s with SELLERS very active Friday.
Simply an amazing turn of events... 99% did not see coming.
We did and profited in the Extreme.
When "Assured" gains are the Dogma - duck duck go.
Next up on the Poo Poo Platter... BitCON as Gensler and Biden
are making it clear, large changes to the Long CON are unfolding.
Wall Street simply wants their Fill, so do we.
TLT - The Beginning Of The EndTLT has broken to the downside here.
Upside rejection and now probable collapse show that March 2020 was a blow off top and TLT is falling into a bear market.
200Dma will likely break soon and will be a technical bear market.
Retracement from the top rejected in the 0.382 area which is weak and spells doom and gloom.
We'll see how things develop but right here it looks like Burry was correct yet again.
Not advice.
TLT - ThunderBall as TNX trades thru 1.564139s and perhaps lower as this will begin to unravel the Equity markets as we approach the prior
highs.
The Fuse for the next leg down in the Equity Complex is being lit.
And the reason for the RUSH to Wall Streets higher FIlls.
Things are quickly coming apart in the REPO Markets as well.
This sets up the potential for a large Rug Pull...
1.71 - 1.76 and it's going to get very Sporty.
Banks are not lending, higher rates do them very little.
Savers are being torqued by Inflation as the Wood Panelers and 007s
can't seem to find a Bid for their Junk Paper.
This will get nasty in the next 10 days.
Very Nasty, they are using the lul between Expiry in VX to hoist price as far as they can
only to let it go again.
We see 15K on NQ with the Gap at 15.2K and the Ledge 15.4K.
NQ has traded the -382 of the 15399 to 14367 decline.
With tomorrow's Macro Job / Employment Report, the silliness can get out of hand quickly.
IMHO, this will end rather badly as we roll back over and begin the 200SMA assualt.
TLT - Wood Paneling OptionalImpressive.
Once 10Yr Yields begin to close over 1.545...
1.76 and then 2.12 - 2.26 will be on the way.
It is remarkable how the Cult of 007s was winked
by the likes of CNBC and Steve Vam Metre.
Thank you 007s, as promised we took your Jing.
140 Puts are up nicely again.
xoxo - Hunter Killer
TLT Patterns repeatI think rates reverse course next week, TLT gets a bounce. That means the market pumps tech again, lol.
NQ daily oversold, so everything lines up, most likely a pump week next week.
Interest rates are going to kill commodity prices and stocksInterest rates are going to crash commodity, stock prices and bonds.
TLT long setup TLT has started to uptrend and in the recent dip holds support on the 76 retracement levels. This is one of the easier buy/hold sort of plays to bet against a bull market.
TLT ShortWedge for potential lower
Fractal given for an idea of what to expect
Fractal from 2H20 when reflation trade started
tlt \\ wave 5 swingmorning,
tlt looks to have been in a prolonged triple 3 correction for this complex wave 4
triple 3's can be described as an area of re-accumulation by smart money, before the next mark up phase begins.
after hitting the downside wave 4 algo target perfectly today, i do think the triple 3 has been completed.
possible it hangs out around this range for a few more days to meet the fib-time ratio for this w4.
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my upside target sits at $157, but there's a good posibility it goes higher than what i am current projecting here.
stop loss below the 0.382
ps. the debt ceiling vote later today might play a big influence on where tlt goes next - so def make sure to keep a tight stop, just in case that vote ends up flopping.
$tlt DOWN MOVE last week tlt made a swift dropped on Friday. this could be the beginning of the drop coming.
so what does this mean ? when the price of bon goes down, we should expect interest rates to stay low or lower.
So could this mean a lower USD ?
Let's hope so.
TLT - 145.25 and it's a confirmed Sell on >TFs.Book Clearing 9/27/2021
TLT Position Closures Today @ > 131.40 ZN
Closing 100 x 152 Puts
Closing 100 x 151 Puts
Closing 100 x 150 Puts
Open 100 x 151~
Open 100 x 149
Open 60 x 148
Open 60 x 147
Open 60 x 140
We will closely watch 145.24 Level for the Support Level, should it trade below the
trade is cast to 139s with a minor retracement to SELL the ETF.
Put ladders will be close in total and gains captured.
The 007's are yet to see the light and will Buy the Dip, we will oppose their ST Bid in
TLT.
Longer-term, TLT Structure looks Negative.
FED - What not to say this morning beginning @ 10 AM EST> 8:00 AM EST positioning will
provide the Micro Trend into Fed Reserve Bullhorns.
The attempt to calm the losing battle with YCC could see on more attempts at gaining the
upper hand.
TLT - The Trap SprungYou can lead to reason, discussion, and a rationale.
For some, it simply goes against the Cult of Obedience.
We will simply take their $ and no longer engage Cultists.
It is a fascinating study in Delusions of Crowds.
139s will fill.
TLT 20YR bond ETF - breaking up from triangle consolidation Pay attention to the bond market folks...
Break out of this triangle can see TLT move up to 157 if the projected target out of the triangle is reached..
A TLT Reality Tilt, Strng the Long BondAdmittedly, the above Chart is Richly Busy.
The Crux
this is the true "Don't Fight The Fed" expression.
Long Strong the Final Bond, with this upside breakout.
NASDAQ:TLT
TLT - Waiting on the RainIn the Kingdom of Wood Paneling TLT remains in a divdergent pattern as the Indicies continue
their Downside Objectives.
Bondies believe this is there Trump Card.
Indy Sell, Bonds ON for Bid.
Although this can true in the very short term, Wednesday will have a decidely different look
and feel to it.
It's good to see the usualy Baggies tossing their "Banter" into the discussion, it amounts to
"hey bro, how much are you down now?"
LOL, we're fine, thank you. Posiotnals are not for the weak, but those who have done the
work and analysis, seeing the larger game afoot.
We'll enjoy comparing notes soon enough.
We're patient, you all... not so much, as evidenced by your incessant and pedantice need to
"tout" your correctness...
And why not, you're in the lead for now :)
Adding 140-170 TLT Puts remains our trade plan as Bonds will join the downside events as
things in the Kingdom of the Rain are not at all well imho.
Stick around Fellas and keep loading up.
We're looking for the 139s to be whacked after Reality sets itself in...
$TLTClose to new highs .taking out C high would make this a 5 up ..thus both entailing subsequent correction and new leg up
Further evidence towards the stock market and crypto market crasTLT has formed a weekly cup and handle. I am very bullish on TLT, hence an upward shift would cause the markets to crash.
Supporting theories to my thesis of stock market crash
- S&P 500 has broken major trendline
- China's debt crisis
- Increased political tensions between US and China
- COVID consequences of restrained productivity and increased debt.
- Inflation concerns.
SPX500 vs TLT : Are you expecting a big than ever drop? When...Just a fast idea about correlation between SPX500 (US500) and TLT.
I'm more bearish than bullish over Sp500, however I just find out TLT correlation with market. Just read more...
I was expected a major drop here in September, but seems not strong enough.
My other target is around March / April. Why? Because of Financial results.
Can we expect super good gains in a market that drained every stock reserve in 2 year where retails "buyed everything they can find, while at home?" I suppose no.
You simply can't sell a 10$ Toys for 100$. If you can't find enough supply, at least you can rise price a little to 15$, maybe 20$. But if before you where able to sell 200.000 pcs x 10$ = 2M$, now you only have 10.000 x 15$ = 150.000$. Freaky!
Can we expect a faster recover in production while there are production "bottle necks" everywhere? I suppose no.
If I need 200.000 toys, I must find them. But if production limit is 1000 toys for week, and there are no stock reserve and high demand, my order must be shared with others. Price will be rise a little. And if my production machine broke, I must wait for a spare part. And if I produce Spare Part I must wait for chip supplier to produce it. To many "bottle necks" everywhere.
Can we expect a fast FED tapering? Maybe not, will only accelerate collapse. So anyone will stay in silence, waiting ... for collapse.
BUT WAIT... WHY TLT? IS IT WORTH?
Maybe not so worth, but higher TLT prices means less buying interest on Governative Bond. Lower prices means more are buying TLT, and this means "standard stock market credibility" just slowing down , melting off. Reads : sell stock & buy bond / commodities.
As always is only a matter of "capital movement" not to HODL till die. Just learn from Pro. Small gains everydays just build more capital than HODL.
YES BUT MY BTC STORE VALUE IS GREAT! TO THE MOOOON!
Ok, free to believe this. Only ask your self if Pro will really trust on BTC as temporary Store Value (like GOLD is only temporary) or if... they are going to screw every small retail.
TO MAKE IT SIMPLE
Whatever will happen, Oil prices, Tapering, Yield Interest, BTC to the moon... from a perspective of "simple buy and sell goods" we are already screwed. We need time to recap production, to fill warehouse, to arrange product stock supply reserve.
Hope is oil price will no go up any further, hope is in some sensate economical intervention, hope is... in cypto decentralization Fomo anarchic mind set.
Ok... We are all screwed. No way, only matter of time.
ONE LAST THING...
Can you figure the "Black Swan" when will enter in the play field? Who or what will be the Jolly Joker for a complete decline?
Share your vision.
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This is not Financial advice. Only my idea. Feel free to share, comment or add missing information.
And why not? Will you consider to donate something for some other post like this? Just contact me.
