TLT - Dip and then Ramp!See chart - C&H and Symmetrical triangle. Looking for Wave E down into a breakout move within the waves. PT 170/174 once complete.
TLT trade ideas
Opening (Margin): TLT January 21st 2 x 160/149 Backratio Spread... for a 20.34 debit.
Comments: Buying 2 x the 82 delta strike and selling the at-the-money 49 delta strike for a setup with a net delta of -115, so this is going to move a lot like short stock. Going with the January expiry to give it more time to work out if it needs it, but will look to take profit at 110% of what I put the trade on for.
TLT Squeezing to stratosphereLike to thank somebody for pointing out the squeeze, but don't know the dude's name. Will likely dca into tlt shares over next 6 months or until squeezed. if anybody is thinking of following this trade just go check my other losses and maybe inverse this like dr. michael burry.
TLT, Trade and trend ranges [02NOV2021]So, in some of the previous plan's descriptions (link below) I have been saying about shorting TLT, and I thought today it would be nice to share a standalone TLT idea, please let me know how it goes.
Signal is extreme bearish, short term has an equal weights on upside to downside, and long term has a -3% downside. I will be adding puts to my core short positions today if I get TLT to be 147.5
PS. Each box span a day, and the code gives short term and long term trends as shown. the trend is shown with the color of the box. The range is calculated on a daily basis.
If you want similar ranges and trends on your ticker, feel free to contact me, I will add them to my list and provide them when the signal is interesting (for free of course)
Redd
Closed (IRA): TLT December 17th 147/2 x 154 Put Ratio Backspread... for a 14.00 debit.
Comments: Paid 12.48 to put this on during Friday's session. (See Post Below). Out today at the open for a 14.00 credit. 1.52 ($152) profit; 12.2% ROC for 3 days' "work."
DUMP COMING SOON ISH For all you nerds thinking that this is the top. I am sorry, but i would recommend putting in more effort. Your time will come:)
TLT - Beyond the Flamingo's Velvet RopesIn the Shadow of the Flamingo's Cheetah cordon, Casino Royale's Buy-In has begun.
A Global Game of Chance?
No.
Baccarat, amongst the Participants, is simply a matter of Bank / Player.
The Bank has a 2.5% edge.
Wealthy Participants are enjoying the "Vesper" - an elixir of extraordinary
mixology - Three measures of Gordon's, one of vodka, half a measure of Kina Lillet.
Fruit and Quinine - Ms. Kina, can be toxic if copious quantities are ingested.
_______________________________________
Insiders began pacing Out-Sized Put Bets on 007.
We have our next setup for TLT and are engaging it with a large SELL into the weak
retracement, which as indicated would fill those overhead Gaps.
Never run to the Baccarat Table, walk, saunter, swagger, swill a Kina in rhythm to stride.
Our Sells are neatly stacked within our several Racks, to be placed and pay the House Vig.
_______________________________________
Looking beyond the Velvet ropes - We are sellers again of Tilt-Lose-Tilt.
Perpetual Bonds with Negative Rates of Return... Playa Play played.
No time to die.
ps. spoiler - 007 Dies
Opening: TLT 2 x December 17th 154/147 Put Backspread Ratio... for a 12.48 debit.
Comments: Here, taking a short-term directional shot in treasuries on strength by buying 2 x the 75 delta puts in the December expiry and selling a 50 delta at-the-money put, yielding a -100.79 dynamic short delta position that will have the "feel" of being short a one lot in TLT from 147.76.
Will start to look to take profit at 110% of what I paid to put the trade on for.
TLT in a great uptrendyou have 3 things running for tlt
above trend line
double bottom
in over all buying territory
Simple Stupid TLT For youBonds have responded to federal reserve 'emergency measures' for a quick timeline:
1. qe on
2. qe should be going away narrative
3. qe is not going away
prediction
4. qe IS going away
Bought shares of bear bond 3X etf.
Trade Idea (TLT): Shorting 20+ Year Paper Via Ratio BackspreadA setup to take advantage of a potential rising interest rate environment without knowing exactly when rate hikes will occur.
Typically, this is set up by buying two of the back month 75 deltas and selling the front month 50 delta, such that you create a spread or diagonal with a net delta metric of around 100 (+100 if a bullish assumption spread or digaonal; -100 if bearish).
Here, I would buy the June 75 delta 163's, and sell the December at-the-money 144, resulting in a net delta of -101.65. With a buy-in of 40.81 at the mid ($4081), it isn't particularly cheap, but certainly cheaper than shorting 100 delta of TLT shares outright and with multiple opportunities to reduce cost basis by rolling out the short put aspect if a move isn't immediately forthcoming.
From a trade management standpoint I either (a) look to roll out the short put aspect to reduce cost basis further if the long put vertical aspect (i.e., one of the long put contracts + the short put aspect) of the setup doesn't converge on max; (b) look to take profit on the long put vertical aspect as soon as it converges on max and allow the remaining long put contract to either "ride" or cap it off by selling a short put against, creating a "new" long put diagonal.
Variations:
A long-dated, static long put vertical with lower net delta, specifically targeting 136:
TLT June 17th 136/155 Long Put Vertical (Buying the 155, Selling the 136)
Buying Power Effect: 10.78 ($1078)
Break Even: 144.22 vs. 144.13 (Friday's Close)
Delta: -33.62
Max Profit: 8.22 ($822)
TLT/JNK ratio signaling risk-on move coming along with VIX dropTLT (20 year bonds) / JNK (junk bonds - aka corporate riskier debt): Falling slope means Risk-On appetite for the market.
TLT - Opprotunity Approaching once againTLT is aimless, wandering the desert which is Bonds.
ZN has made new Lows for 2021 and continues to squat
over the 130 Level.
We believe it will fail as 10 Year Yields begin to complete
their Consolidation and cross the 1.645 Level - indicating
a move back to the 2021 Highs.
We will be entering a SELL on Shares only.
IV is not tempting enough at present as the Bond Bid has
been absent - today's 8AM EST resolution will provide far
more information for the larger trade here.
BUlls are eyeing the large Gaps overhead, believing they
are next.
We're not convinced they are correct, the 172s are a
which Implies Extreme Negative Returns.
Perpetual Bonds is al 007s will Clip while watching the
Capital Dissolve over time.
To each their very own.
TLT - ONLY HIGHER FROM HERESetting up for a break above March 2020 downtrend line into the top of this ascending triangle. November 22 is the Apex
TLT NEW BULL WAVE HAS STARTED 150 AREA CYCLE LOW IN TLT . I am now very bullish the TLT long side into nov 22 to dec 10 . My forecast for the 10 yr to see 1.62 . was seen I took profits and told traders to exit now .We now have a clear wave structure in TLT for a wave abc down for wave B low . this could be why I have the sp 500 ready to crash into a mini panic into its cycle low due oct 18th . BUT for now I would only be on the long side of TLT . I am now long a 50% at 143 and will add on a buy stop at 145.10 25% . We also saw the low hit right on the bottom of the Bollinger Bands best of trades WAVETIMER
tlt bear trap below channel midline?tlt bear trap below channel midline? dunno which way it gonna go.
TLT - Breaking 140.67 on ToothlessWill end badly for the 007s as it can follow ZN back to the 2021 Lows.
We will likely see yet another G A P this morning as ZN appears to be
hunting the 129s with SELLERS very active Friday.
Simply an amazing turn of events... 99% did not see coming.
We did and profited in the Extreme.
When "Assured" gains are the Dogma - duck duck go.
Next up on the Poo Poo Platter... BitCON as Gensler and Biden
are making it clear, large changes to the Long CON are unfolding.
Wall Street simply wants their Fill, so do we.
TLT - The Beginning Of The EndTLT has broken to the downside here.
Upside rejection and now probable collapse show that March 2020 was a blow off top and TLT is falling into a bear market.
200Dma will likely break soon and will be a technical bear market.
Retracement from the top rejected in the 0.382 area which is weak and spells doom and gloom.
We'll see how things develop but right here it looks like Burry was correct yet again.
Not advice.
TLT - ThunderBall as TNX trades thru 1.564139s and perhaps lower as this will begin to unravel the Equity markets as we approach the prior
highs.
The Fuse for the next leg down in the Equity Complex is being lit.
And the reason for the RUSH to Wall Streets higher FIlls.
Things are quickly coming apart in the REPO Markets as well.
This sets up the potential for a large Rug Pull...
1.71 - 1.76 and it's going to get very Sporty.
Banks are not lending, higher rates do them very little.
Savers are being torqued by Inflation as the Wood Panelers and 007s
can't seem to find a Bid for their Junk Paper.
This will get nasty in the next 10 days.
Very Nasty, they are using the lul between Expiry in VX to hoist price as far as they can
only to let it go again.
We see 15K on NQ with the Gap at 15.2K and the Ledge 15.4K.
NQ has traded the -382 of the 15399 to 14367 decline.
With tomorrow's Macro Job / Employment Report, the silliness can get out of hand quickly.
IMHO, this will end rather badly as we roll back over and begin the 200SMA assualt.
TLT - Wood Paneling OptionalImpressive.
Once 10Yr Yields begin to close over 1.545...
1.76 and then 2.12 - 2.26 will be on the way.
It is remarkable how the Cult of 007s was winked
by the likes of CNBC and Steve Vam Metre.
Thank you 007s, as promised we took your Jing.
140 Puts are up nicely again.
xoxo - Hunter Killer
TLT Patterns repeatI think rates reverse course next week, TLT gets a bounce. That means the market pumps tech again, lol.
NQ daily oversold, so everything lines up, most likely a pump week next week.
Interest rates are going to kill commodity prices and stocksInterest rates are going to crash commodity, stock prices and bonds.
TLT long setup TLT has started to uptrend and in the recent dip holds support on the 76 retracement levels. This is one of the easier buy/hold sort of plays to bet against a bull market.
