TLTSymbol: NASDAQ:TLT
Type: Stock Market Analysis
Indicators
Laguerre RSI
Multi-Time Frame EMA
Opinion: With bonds continuing higher; this will put a lot of pressure on the market especially growth stocks.
TLT trade ideas
Are the bond bulls in control or is it time for a break?Bonds have reached a very important level. For now this seems like a *logical* place for the *anti-reflation* / deflation trade to end, and for the risk on trade to be back. I am more on the disinflationary (very low inflation) camp, however bonds have risen substantially and it might be time to take some profits before the resume lower. I don't think we will have extremely high inflation yet and I don't think we will have the good type of inflation because things are going well. I do expect Oil to go higher and that to cause all sorts of issues and higher prices, but other than that I don't think bonds will get crushed. At least no yet.
The key question for the whole reflation trade is... WIll bonds and USD keep going higher, with only US behemoths rallying or and the rest bleeding or struggling, or could we get a larger shock? Because to me if the USD really breaks out and heads for 96 on the DXY, while bonds also rally... we will eventually see something break. I think we'll soon have a better idea of where things could be heading next so it is better to be patient and take a few select trades that go well with this environment and look technically sound.
Rising TLT + Rising Indices. Are these two are now correlated?XTN and DJT are no longer making any all time high yet the market keeps making all time high
tlt wave 5 swing setuphit our upside target perfectly, looking for a pullback to the -0.382 at about 143ish
wave 4 target = 143
wave 5 target = 151
When Bonds and Stocks go up together...... it is a sign of a top approaching??
Disclaimer: This is just an opinion, not a financial advice. Do your own homework.
𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $TLT Daily. Bearish Divergence ⚠️𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $TLT Daily. Based at 135 support area and now testing 200dma. Above can go higher, but bearish divergence ⚠️ so could top
$TNX $ZB_F $ZN_F $SPY $SPX $ES_F $VIX $QQQ $NDX $NQ_F $GLD $GDX $DXY #Bonds #Stocks #Trading
TLT - Confirmed bottom - More upsideThoughts and ideas are my own view.
Now, I've been in a trade on TLT for a little while now. About 2 weeks. It's quite obvious there's a couple things going on here:
1. A reduction of downward momentum that ended in mid-March.
2. A move up followed by a corrective move to the downside which did not make a new low
3. Our indicators indicated we were about to make a move to the upside
4. There's also a visible inverted head and shoulders that broke out on June 8
Mix all these things and there's a squeeze that is expanding to the upside as well. Although we may see a pullback to retest the breakout area, I'm interested in seeing TLT make a move up to approximately $149 in the coming month.
Is TLT saying we are about to have a Vix explosion? I have been following many charts and patterns for quite some time. and The set up for an entire market melt down is almost too perfect right now. and I will go through the list of events that have taken place:
First lets start with Gold. Gold had rallied on the back of lower yields for the better part of 2 months all to just get shot down during the FOMC meeting just a few weeks ago when the dollar shot up. (gold tends to lead the market sells offs by about 2-3 weeks) Mind you all of this has happened as yields have gone lower and lower. (totally not what you would expect from an "inflationary environment") gold respects real rates however if deflation was about to start happening, then this is the exact precursor you would expect. This is why I believe that if I am wrong about the vix explosion gold is going to be the best buy of the quarter.
Then lets move to the DJT (dow jones transports) I explained this in my prior IYT analysis which can be found here:
The transports just like gold and precious metals are generally the first assets to take a hit give or take about 2-3 weeks before general market correction.
and that leads me to my last point. TLT, oh tlt you dirty whore you. (I am currently long tlt fyi) The set up in the line chart of tlt is identical to the pre-covid crash as you can see in this chart.
But wait there's more.. Why has DXY been rallying along with TLT that does not happen very often. Some times it happens here and there But it does not happen for stretch of 2 weeks. All I am saying is stay hedged people. this is a very very risky set up.
TLT TO SEE NEW LOWS RATES RISE I have just moved to a net short tlt . a= c at .382 look for a new leg lower 131
$TLT Continues to Defy Traditional Logic and Beat Up Bond ShortsTLT has been trending higher. Make no mistake about it. That's in spite of record inflation and 7% GDP growth estimates for the year. Higher. Rates, lower.
One would think something has to give here. But the lower-for-longer trade seems to be peering around the corner right now.
TLT - TBT - IWM - FED Vs BurryI believe in Dr. Michael Burry analysis and vision.
in the next crash, which is warming slowly now, we can make a lot of gains. We only need long term strategy and patience.
I keep following Dr. Burry portfolio, the next SEC filing will be around August 16.
Good luck everyone.
Samy
Don't get PLAYED by Big Money: Inflation Trade Over?To trade the markets you have to be AWARE of the world and what is going on. We have to read the news every day but we should not always take what people are saying at face value. The news is never a leading indicator but it can at times be an INVERSE indicator. Don't get played by big money "talking their position" ...
In this video we look at examples of the last two years when the media hype was the OPPOSITE trade to take for...
AMEX:GLD
AMEX:USO
AMEX:SPY
NASDAQ:TLT
Bonds FTWBonds are breaking up. They made a higher low and going to push higher. We are above the 20 and 50 DMA. This will be a nice long while stocks get volatile.
TLT Double Bottom - BACATLT Double Bottom - Retest of Neckline - Break - BACA 2020 TL , Recent high.
TLT/SPX Monthly ChartJust an interesting point we are in that I noted on TLT/SPX chart. Seems like ratio is curling up after hitting the trendline and there is a possible bullish divergence on RSI.
TLT. for chuck555. Hope you like it.I think the way the markets are all linked and pull and push on one another is really fascinating, however, in most of the books I've read it says that you should stay away from that type of predictive trading and just do what the market is showing you on the charts. I think trying to piece everything together is fun, but again, I've read so many accounts of traders who place positions because they think they know what the market is going to do, then the news comes out exactly as they predicted and the market accommodates by twisting and bending in a way they were not expecting. For this reason, I like to keep it simple. This is probably why I'm only joining trends midway through, but I'm not placing life changing positions.
Still, I think it's all very interesting, and today I learned a little bit about the correlation between bonds, inflation, and rates expectations.
Inflation up = interest rates up. Interest rates up = bonds down. Bonds down = stocks up. Stocks up = gold down? gold down = what? and where does bitcoin fit into this? How much does a sailboat cost?
Elliott Wave Analysis: TLT Has An Unfinished Five-Wave DeclineHello traders and investors!
Today we will talk about TLT treasury bond in which we see very interesting development.
We are observing a bigger A-B-C correction, where a five-wave decline within wave C looks to be unfinished. Currently we are tracking a three-wave A-B-C correction within wave 4) that can stop at the strong trendline connected from the highs, so watch out for another drop for wave (5) of C towards 130 support level before bulls show up.
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Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Credit - TLT ShortIdea for TLT:
- Short downtrend which retested median line high.
- PT: 112
GLHF
- DPT
