Bounce off resistance will send tlt down to retest bottom. Retest of bottom is likely on this price action chart.
TLT trade ideas
Bullish TLTTrendlines : All downtrend lines that can be drawn from $172.25 and below have been broken. Last downtrend line drawn above and has been broken as well.
Support/Resistance : $153.16-$154.63 is a possible resistance zone that could pause this rally however, given the rallying dollar and narrative of economic slowdown, we could certainly retest $172.25.
Moving Averages : new uptrend line confluence with the 50 SMA. Above all major MA’s: EMA 9, SMA 20, 50, 100, 200.
Bullish unless new uptrend line/50 MA breaks.
Strong Bearish Signal on TLTWe have a strong indication that BlueWave is going to give a Red Dot Sell signal soon, and it can be confirmed with the Stochastic RSI.
We also know that Micheal Burry from the big short movie is shorting TLT.
Adding to that SPY is close to its peak. So be careful.
TLT - Longer End 10/20/30 FlatteningSince 2002 when GSCO's Timothy Bitsberger's began his reign as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury.
Fiscal Fundings began to move down the curve to under 30 Months and accumulate a large concentration
within this timeframe.
It placed the burden of Government Finance up on the Short End of the Yield Curve near the region of control
for the Federal Reserve and their ability to drive Monetary Policy.
During the waning decades to today, the Bond Markets have become 11.2X the size of Equities.
Since 2008 we have witnessed a rapid acceleration in Money Stock, one which remains underreported then
(as the FED ceased reporting M2) to today where the very life blood of Credit Growth Velocity has dried up
and reversed.
TARP, TALF and the Yield Swaps accumulated $32 Trillion in Debt. 91% of the American Public was against these
Monetary Measure then.... Today they Gag for it as the Global Economy lays in ruin. Independent Producers have
been wrecked to the point, recovery is simply not viable.
The FED Minutes served to provide several references to moving up the Timeline for Tapering.
This provides cover for Powell's (we'll let ya know while we're thinking about thinking) as behind the scenes
they are preparing for short duration reduction in the usual suspects - RMBS, CDO, CDO, Corp Debt, Zombie
DEBT.
Yield Curve Controls became evident as the 1.71 10Yr yield was not permitted to be breached, had it and
Swaps would have been grossly offsides and created a large dislocation.
At present, The uncertainty over the impact of this Policy change - Potential Policy change - remain in Flux.
The Dollar, our target is 9465 ST, remains the wild card as the EU faces retribution for decades of abuse and
a failed attempt at Negative Interest Rates - the vote of Confidence ALWAYS flows to the Currency of Seniorege,
the US DOLLAR.
Capital Flows favor US Markets as China is making it extraordinarily clear, they are closing off the Monetary &
Economic Borders well in advance of the UNWIND coming to our shores.
A steepening or inverting yield Curve is immaterial. We crossed the Rubicon long, long ago.
As we witness the SPX to M2 Stock overthrow the .22 level - there is an important message there, extremely
important, which is why we suggested the ES would attempt an over-throw on Friday @ the 4441 level.
These actions ahead of Jackson Hole are significant.
More to follow within the 5 Part thesis beginning with ES/M2S, TLT, Divergences, Capital Flows and "Resurrections'
Trade"
HK
TLTTLT shows whether smart investors believe the stock market will perform well in the next few months to few years. TLT downtrend shows investors are moving funds to stocks, showing bullish for stocks. TLT uptrend shows investors believe stocks will be falling, so they buy into TLT instead.
TLT vs DJTTLT vs DJT divergence forming for past few months. DJT usually acts as leading indicator to economic slowdowns. TLT usually acts as leading indicator to market tops. Right now both and showing a leading indicator towards possible slowdown and market top, how will it affect the extended bull run moving on?
Investors are more Risk Averse : TLT vs HYGTLT/HYG - RiskOff vs. RiskOn: Tells you how risky investors/lenders are...
The Chart presented maps the performance of TLT (risk off) vs. HYG (risk on). It is evident that there is currently a risk off move occurring in the markets. When TLT outperforms HYG, this is bearish for equites. On the chart, I inputted vertical lines on the periods where TLT outperforms HYG. When this occurs it usually spells a short term peak in the markets.
TLT is a measure for the safest form of credit: 10Y US Treasury Bills. The yield on these bills is known as the "risk free rate". Investors looking for a risk averse strategy will put their money in here and gather a humble return. However, when investors are looking to get paid more for the money they are loaning; they look for High Yielding Grade credit otherwise known as, Junk Bonds. This debt has higher risks of default but, are more profitable.
Credit is what makes America great. People/corporations spend, spend, spend borrowed money which, leads to more people having more money in their bank accounts. As lenders becoming more risk averse they lend less and are more prudent with their money. Lenders will gravitate to safer investments that do not risk default. After all, when you borrow; you borrow from your future self.
TLT - 150 Puts now Active - ZN 134s STO / ZB 16490 STOsTLT Gap Fill was the Fill.
150 Put entry completed on GF.
November 150s now solidly in profit
for this trade, B/E is stop as VX enters
and true range appears at 2:45PM EST.
This is an aggressive SELL on TLT for us.
We believe TLT ends up being Sold Hard.
ZN/ZB tend to lead these declines. The Setups
in both ZN & ZB are complete.
We hold large positions in both:
ZN @ 134.00 x 25
ZB @ 164.90 @ 25
Our largest and ONLY Position outside of AMC SELLs.
We believe this trade will see 3% at minimum, it will be
very quick and very dirty as ROCs expand.
Bond Curve >/= 10yr in confirmed SELL.
tltprevious discussed tlt going to $182 from the area we've just hit
change of plans. i think we go to $157 from here to put in this last sub-wave 5 into wave (1) before the retracement into wave (2) on the higher degree ($141 area).
once that wave (2) is in, i whole heartedly expect a seriously impulsive move to the $180 area which should shake up the markets really nicely.
tltr;
subwave 5 target = $157
previous tlt posts leading up to this:
TLT Patterns repeatExpecting yields to rise Monday then back down for a week or two.
Bought some TLT puts. If things go as expected, then we get a bear trap Monday as the market (at least tech) will do a small gap down.
Consumer Sentiment: Uh Oh.This morning, the UMCSI printed a 70.2, which is the worst number since March of last year and, prior to that, the end of 2011. If you were wondering why TLT is up 1.4% today, and XLP is crushing, while XLY and XLF are getting hurt, it's because a slowdown in consumer sentiment is REALLY bad for inflation expectations and retail spending. This further plays into the deflationary trends that have been winning the recent fight in treasuries, and explains why tech seems unconcerned. Consumer Staples is strong off of the back of relative valuation.
If you're not paying attention, this one reading was simple to miss, but we think it's going to be driving market sentiment over the next few weeks. Fundamental sentiment appears to be shifting from a GDP point of view, and we are much less bullish on equities as a whole than we were 4 hours ago.
Cheers!
TLT Bouncing Off 0.382 FibFib retracement analysis
TLT bounced off 0.5 and broke 0.382.
Today, it is hitting the 0.382 fib resistance.
Expecting it to come back down to 0.236
$TLT touching on support MA50TLT has just touched on the ma50 line @145.71 which is also the top on June 18.
With gold out of favour and USD going up, the smart money is pouring into the treasury bond. this is a good time to collect some bond for the next 1-2 years.
Interest rate should stay low for the mean time and equities should be hot for the coming year.
TLT junk bonksBonds have likely bottomed 135-136, this is more confirmation that we are likely heading for deflation not inflation. Smart money are heading into bonds
TLT new downtrend patternWith the slower/stalled reopening, money isn’t spreading out across industries and the globe as quickly as the FED planned last year. This will cause high inflation readings for longer, bond yields to rise and TLT to fall. Fear of the inflation report on the 11th seems to be playing out.
tlt update ⚠⚠⚠i don't know what the story is going to be this time, but the charts are all starting to point to a deep market correction which starts in the next couple of days and lasts a couple of months.
don't want to be that guy who's all like "da markets are going to crash", but be careful peoples.
Closed (IRA): TLT August 20th 143 Covered Calls... for a 142.60 credit/contract.
Comments: Hit my order to take this off at or near max today. (The max would be 143.00, so the order I stuck out thereI took it off .40 short of that). An über long-running covered call setup with the last acquisition of shares around $110/share. (See Post Below). Unfortunately, I didn't keep good track of short call premium over the years (yes, years), but I made at least the difference between the last acquisition at $110 and what I got out of it today or 32.60 ($3260/contract) plus the 7.93 in credit per contract I kept track of since the beginning of the year. 32.60 + 7.93 = 40.53 ($4053/contract) (plus, of course, those smidgeonly monthly divvies).
I'll look to re-up if it ever starts paying decently again (e.g., >3.0% annualized), but I may be waiting a very, very long time for that happen. It's paying a scant 1.481% annualized now.
Bonds - TLT BullishIdea for TLT:
- Price is in quite an elegant ML Channel (upperbound).
- Rising Volume and Volatility.
- Over key MAs (holding trend).
Bonds too, only go up in time, and can be interchanged with equities when there is a bear market in stocks. Smart money already piling in (hedge or predicting a stock bear market). We can play the bonds game soon.
GLHF
- DPT
TLT Breaks Out of Descending Wedge to seek new All-Time Highs?Using the same fractal analysis method I used to forecast the BTC dump & dead-cat bounce, I began watching US Treasuries as TLT was set to break out of a descending wedge.
Now that it is has, I'm publishing the idea for others to weigh in on.
If the pattern plays out we could see new all time highs; which suggests we could be entering another period of recession much like the financial crisis of '08.
I do not currently have a position & this is not financial advice. Just sharing observations as they occur.
If you wanted to play the pattern, TMF(long) & TMV(short) are leveraged ETFs you can use.
TLT repeating pattern. Another trap coming?TLT 's pattern of higher highs and higher lows seems very obvious. But as a wise man said, "if it's obvious, it's obviously wrong."
So will we see another trap/shake-out occur before it keeps going?
Or will this be where TLT pulls back further while the market resumes bullishness.
What do you think?
