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TLT trade ideas

Consumer Sentiment: Uh Oh.This morning, the UMCSI printed a 70.2, which is the worst number since March of last year and, prior to that, the end of 2011. If you were wondering why TLT is up 1.4% today, and XLP is crushing, while XLY and XLF are getting hurt, it's because a slowdown in consumer sentiment is REALLY bad for inflation expectations and retail spending. This further plays into the deflationary trends that have been winning the recent fight in treasuries, and explains why tech seems unconcerned. Consumer Staples is strong off of the back of relative valuation. If you're not paying attention, this one reading was simple to miss, but we think it's going to be driving market sentiment over the next few weeks. Fundamental sentiment appears to be shifting from a GDP point of view, and we are much less bullish on equities as a whole than we were 4 hours ago. Cheers!
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by PropNotes
5
Closed (IRA): TLT August 20th 143 Covered Calls... for a 142.60 credit/contract. Comments: Hit my order to take this off at or near max today. (The max would be 143.00, so the order I stuck out thereI took it off .40 short of that). An über long-running covered call setup with the last acquisition of shares around $110/share. (See Post Below). Unfortunately, I didn't keep good track of short call premium over the years (yes, years), but I made at least the difference between the last acquisition at $110 and what I got out of it today or 32.60 ($3260/contract) plus the 7.93 in credit per contract I kept track of since the beginning of the year. 32.60 + 7.93 = 40.53 ($4053/contract) (plus, of course, those smidgeonly monthly divvies). I'll look to re-up if it ever starts paying decently again (e.g., >3.0% annualized), but I may be waiting a very, very long time for that happen. It's paying a scant 1.481% annualized now.
NASDAQ:TLT
by NaughtyPines
TLT Breaks Out of Descending Wedge to seek new All-Time Highs?Using the same fractal analysis method I used to forecast the BTC dump & dead-cat bounce, I began watching US Treasuries as TLT was set to break out of a descending wedge. Now that it is has, I'm publishing the idea for others to weigh in on. If the pattern plays out we could see new all time highs; which suggests we could be entering another period of recession much like the financial crisis of '08. I do not currently have a position & this is not financial advice. Just sharing observations as they occur. If you wanted to play the pattern, TMF(long) & TMV(short) are leveraged ETFs you can use.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by jsgiardino
1
MARKET ALPHA'S GOLDEN CROSS - TLTNASDAQ:TLT Here is my take on a common trading strategy that uses the 50 and 200 moving averages to indicate a trend change. In my version, I use two multi time frame EMA's. One runs at an input of 26 and the other runs at 104. Typically these kind of crosses will involve a retest and sometimes may fail, but if the trend holds true in a reversal we can usually see pretty large gains. As always, don't get over confident and always know your stop loss and take profit levels.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by jakelikesstocks
Reflation Is DeadSomething happened this morning that I think is worth talking about - the official death of the categorical re-flation trade. Thanks Delta Variant and UMCSI! Over the last eight months, there's been a lot of prognosticating about the state of inflation within the economy, coupled with fears that the Fed had gotten it wrong. Runaway Inflation was considered a key monetary risk, and the CPI printed 5% YoY last month. As a result of all this inflation talk, in combination with COVID-induced supply shortages, commodities have been on a 14 month bull run from the lows last March, with no signs of stopping. Conversely, the ARKK-style bucket has been languishing for months, given the speculative nature of its future cash flows, and thus, reduced NPV (thanks to higher TLT). Today, however, the market is sending a clear sign that these trends are over. Rates are plunging (signaling lower market inflation expectations), and "Real" assets are getting smacked as their perceived value (in less powerful future dollars) comes back into line. It's one of the main reasons that QQQ is down less than SPY today - Delta Variant fears boost tech / WFH trades. The same stocks which also benefit from lower rates. The UMCSI also leads weaker consumer spending, which adds up to a drop in demand -> less inflationary pressure. The thing is, if you dig into the numbers, this should not be a shock. Hell, a good chunk of the CPI 5% YoY print had to do with the increasing price of used cars. Aka, who cares? But let's back up. That explains why oil is down 5% today. Why are my other stocks down? For some context, since our launch on July 1st, our Equity Macro view (freely available on our site) has been the following: "Valuations remain rather high on a TTM basis for the overall market, as a combination of COVID related denominator issues and monetary / fiscal policy numerator boosters throw the ratios completely out of whack. While some have written off these values as "distortions", we here at Discordia believe that the market is still a good deal overvalued. Even if you believe the broad analyst community and completely throw out 2020 and 2021 numbers, the NTM S&P guidance puts us trading at 22x earnings, which is still a significant premium to the market's long term average. Some of this premium can be explained by the strong business sentiment and economic climate, and some can be attributed to inflationary expectations, which are also higher than long term averages. We believe, along with the Fed, that the recent bump in inflation will be transitory. We also think that there will be a slowdown in business sentiment sometime in the early fall, as shortages clear up and pricing pressures ease. Lumber and other ag's serve as a a leading indicator of this dynamic, in our view -- lumber having dropped almost 60% in the last 8 weeks." As you can see, a drop in inflationary expectations immediately takes an axe to the premium that's being afforded this extended market. Over the long term, as it turns out, deflation is reallllly hard to avoid in a technologically advancing society like ours. Finally, you mix in the real-world potential that Delta has to send us back 12 months, and you can see why we are where we are today. Think NLS and PTON being up is a fluke? Cheers!
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by PropNotes
3
MARKET ALPHA WATCHLIST - TLTSymbol: NASDAQ:TLT Indicators Laguerre RSI 2 x Multi-Time Frame EMA Comments: The FED has been pumping a substantial amount of liquidity in the US economy via creation of and then purchasing of bonds. The problem became more complicated as Michael Burry revealed his massive short position against the bond market. Michael Burry was not the only one shorting the bonds. The decline of the dollar was a clear indication that the Fed efforts would lead to further decline in bond prices. The bonds look to be unraveling as the word "taper" has been a focal point of the fed and they are actively having meetings about having meetings... so that is definitely promising.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by jakelikesstocks
2
Bonds Bearish? Stocks Bullish?Let me know your thoughts everyone! Im very curious to see what the general public is thinking.(agreements, disagreements, any thoughts are welcome) Are you guys bullish on stocks or on bonds? Here are 3 different time frames for the TLT 20 Year Bond ETF(daily, weekly, and monthly). In my analysis you see we have been in an ascending channel(textbook bearish) for almost 15 years arguably more. We broke out during the major market crash in march of 2020 and stayed above it until around January of 2021.We formed a descending triangle(textbook bearish) and broke to the downside back into the ascending channel. This is what you would call a false breakout which is also bearish. Not only did we break below the descending triangle but for now it has been holding resistance the past week. Why is this important? Bonds and stocks are for the most part inversely correlated. So if you trade stocks, bonds are an important market to look into. The top of the ascending channel has massive resistance as you can see it not only touched it 6 times before breaking out, it also needed a black swan event to breakout of the channel. You might also see a massive head and shoulders(text book bearish) forming on the weekly. If this plays out we can potentially see a $120 TLT which isn't that crazy of a predication when you consider we were just at $110 in November of 2018. (keep in mind that the first shoulder took roughly a year and a half to form so we can say if this plays out were looking about the same time frame for the second shoulder to fully form) That would also be the bottom of the channel, which if that cant hold support then we can be seeing a $100 TLT which was last seen in January of 2014. This would be great news for stocks, terrible news for the dollar. Inflation is getting worse everyday. And when you take all these things(fundamental and technical) into consideration it doesn't look good for bonds in the medium term. We have just broken to the downside of a descending channel and flipped to resistance, just broke back into an ascending channel after a false breakout, have been in a clear down trend since the peak during the corona virus crash, and we have room to hit at least $120(bottom of the ascending channel) by July of next year if this down trend continues. A breakout above the ascending channel retest on the previous resistance and continuation upward will obviously invalidate this analysis Q2 earnings also start tomorrow and there is very high expectations. If expectations are to be met or even beat, then I would say its more likely the markets will pump stocks and dump bonds. And this uptrend in stocks will be looking to continue until we enter a deflationary phase in the markets. That is when I believe bonds will breakout the downtrend and being to recover. SPY is also showing it has more room to go before coming down and I will post that in my next analysis.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by anamaly
4