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TLT trade ideas

The Mother Of All Bets (MOAB)With the financial world turned upside down people are looking for vulnerabilities within the system. Let me direct your eyes to the long end of the bond curve. Stress is already apparent in the repo market and funds are beginning to unwinding left and right. If you look at cot data on the long end of the bond curve specifically the 30-year you will notice that shorts have piled in to the highest level they have in all of history. This virtuous cycle was created in the anticipation that the Fed would spark inflation. Spoiler alert they didn't. With the dollar beginning to reverse I feel now is the time to go long the long end and expect for financial conditions to tighten as the demand for cash spikes.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by The_dumpster_diver
1
TLT/XLF: Banks don't like what they smell.Banks are the best indicator of the financial health of the market. Analysis: TLT/XLF is flashing warning signs if banks fail to make new highs. Banks are being incredibly stingy with their money lending and low interest rates are not helping their profitability. Banks are sitting on Mr.Powells printed money. I am not seeing a lot of strength in the banking sector as, they have failed to follow other asset classes. XLF has failed to break its March highs which, is very concerning. Looking back at history, when TLT rises faster than XLF, it is a bad sign for markets and an indicator of systemic risk. The ratio of TLT/XLF at this level has been a major support zone. Additionally, there was a very strong reversal. TLT is experiencing heavy buying volume and is reversing the down trend from March. The 2008 and 2020 market crashes occurred from these levels. Banks are acting very sheepish as, the smell the wolf (DXY) coming. Dollars are needed to pay off debts....Liquidity crisis? Opinion: A ticking time bomb, it's not a matter of if but, when. I am positioning myself away from this bomb an extra 10%-20% gains in equity is not worth a 40% risk, everyone has been so conditioned to buy the dip, it makes me wary to follow the flock. I am still long equities to an extent but, TLT is my biggest position. Please don't let my analysis get in the way from you buying GME,AMC,NOK,BB or FAANG. This is just the smoke alarm going off signaling a fire in the vicinity and I am telling people "Hey look over there". I truly do wish the best for everyone on WSB and the new wave of retail traders with limited understanding of markets hoping to make a quick buck. I just hope they aren't risk more than they are willing to lose.
NASDAQ:TLT
by arama-nuggetrouble
14
TLT: The new suitor in town; With his wingman the Yield CurveThe dollar starting to rally should be very concerning for speculators in risk assets. The bond market has been heavily shorted and a short squeeze might be in order here. Look at how they bought a the rips and sold the dips since April. Back in January of last year we saw this same price action. The CTA are gonna start buying if we see the bottom hold that would be proof. This past week we saw the bond auctions have surprisingly good numbers with primary and indirect buyers showing enthusiasm for bonds. This might be the catalyst that has shorts exiting their positions. Bonds will now revert back to their natural flow and go up due to the tight financial conditions. Banks still need lower interest rates to give them a better incentive to lend (M2 - M1). We see this in January when the bond market started to settle and the CTAs started to buy in. The market is not expecting low interest rates because commodities have risen recently but this will most likely not continue. Why is Gold falling with Dollar, it tells you something fishy is happening. Yield Curve: the yield curve is the 10 year minus the two year maturity rates. Retail traders don’t ever look at it but, it’s telling a story. The Ten year yield is not going to go up as fast as, the two year. The two year is headed to zero. This is going to drive the yield curve up even more. Let’s not forget a rising yield curve has predicted every recession. Ciao!!
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by arama-nuggetrouble
7
Market Crash Inbound? TLT WILL DECIDE $TLT $SPY | Play of YearTLT (inverse gov bonds) looks like it's ready to make a move within the next few weeks, after forming a pretty nice wedge. This will ultimately be a very important indication of what direction the market will be heading in Q1 21 and beyond... (scroll for options play idea) Just looking at the fundamentals on TLT, we can predict a market-wide dump (nice correction) with the next 4 months, nailing it on the head will be the difficult part which will most likely involve some type of fundamentals like another rate cut for example (what happened back in Feb and March). TLT is an extremely slow mover, which makes a extremely profitable during higher volatility moves. This will predict the direction of almost the entire market. TLT would give an indication of a bullish market and economic bounceback if it falls off below $154.63 , but would be confirmed with the break below $148.9. TLT would indicate a potential market-wide correction if it were to break $159.7 as it should make a quick move toward $170 once broken. The economy might get sketchy If TLT were to break $172.15. Back in February, we entered TLT after the gap up and continuation past $148.90, leading us to a 19% move at highs from that level. Now we will watch $159.7 for a potential breakout which will ultimately result in a similar move as we saw in Feb. THE EASY LOOT PLAY: |BULLISH| : TLT $170 CALL 4/16/21 @ $140 AVG (I like) or TLT $170 CALL 3/19/21 @ $90 AVG (higher reward higher risk) |BEARISH| : Not gonna touch it, sit on hands and find other great growth Timing is key, don't jump the gun DCJ | Jack
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by DotcomJack
7