TLTNot a good look for bonds imo. I took a hit on my starter position today but going to avoid for a while at this point unless a good short setup appears.
TLT trade ideas
TLT long itTrend line , maybe a bull flag-ish pattern and at previous diagonal resistance. Text book long on this, $200 is a nice round long target. RSI has room to run. If this breaks down then bond will go much lower and the trade is closed out. We will see how this plays out.
Market Crash Inbound? TLT WILL DECIDE $TLT $SPY | Play of YearTLT (inverse gov bonds) looks like it's ready to make a move within the next few weeks, after forming a pretty nice wedge. This will ultimately be a very important indication of what direction the market will be heading in Q1 21 and beyond...
(scroll for options play idea)
Just looking at the fundamentals on TLT, we can predict a market-wide dump (nice correction) with the next 4 months, nailing it on the head will be the difficult part which will most likely involve some type of fundamentals like another rate cut for example (what happened back in Feb and March). TLT is an extremely slow mover, which makes a extremely profitable during higher volatility moves.
This will predict the direction of almost the entire market. TLT would give an indication of a bullish market and economic bounceback if it falls off below $154.63 , but would be confirmed with the break below $148.9. TLT would indicate a potential market-wide correction if it were to break $159.7 as it should make a quick move toward $170 once broken. The economy might get sketchy If TLT were to break $172.15.
Back in February, we entered TLT after the gap up and continuation past $148.90, leading us to a 19% move at highs from that level. Now we will watch $159.7 for a potential breakout which will ultimately result in a similar move as we saw in Feb.
THE EASY LOOT PLAY:
|BULLISH| : TLT $170 CALL 4/16/21 @ $140 AVG (I like)
or
TLT $170 CALL 3/19/21 @ $90 AVG (higher reward higher risk)
|BEARISH| : Not gonna touch it, sit on hands and find other great growth
Timing is key, don't jump the gun
DCJ | Jack
Bonds are finally about to break out!Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
Correlation between BTC, TLT/JNK, and the Georgia Senate RunoffI've put this together after watching and reading over the weekend about the potential influence the Georgia Senate Runoff has on the market. Shown here is the correlation between BTC (or any other crypto for that matter) and the Treasury bond market to Junk bond index. People keep moving money into bonds showing FEAR in the market. Since bonds and the USDC has very little value due to the printing of the dollar, people are moving to Bitcoin to store their currency. IF the TLT/JNK were to break out we may see people move into Treasury bonds, Bitcoin, and liquidate all of their stocks.
This is just my hypothesis and it may change depending on the latest news.
Make or break time TLTTLT poised to make a big move..... is it going to be up or down?
Long now but will be out if it moves against me but will not hesitate to get back in if it is a false breakdown.
10 Year yield looks like it’s going down as well to .7350, this means TLT hits 166?
🤞
Bond etf year in review: O $139.69 H$179.70 L$135.91 C <=> $158Bond etf year in review:
O $139.69
H $179.70
L $135.91
C <=> $158
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Small incremental steps work : If you double a penny a day for a month it = $5,368,709. Good luck and happy trading friends...
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Warning to all new traders/Investors.Please be on the lookout of a TLT breakout, due to upcoming insolvencies that next year looks to bring, I feel like we going for a blow -off type pattern pretty soon on the S&P500. Go BONDS
ROLLING (IRA): TLT JAN 15TH 165 COVERED CALLS TO FEB 19TH 163... for a 1.00/contract credit.
Notes: A continuation of my TLT covered calls. (See Post Below). Rolling out at >50% max to the strike paying around 1% of the strike price, which is the 163 in February, currently valued at 1.66. I'm fine with being called away, since my last acquisition was around 110, and I think the buying power could be better utilized in something with higher implied volatility (30 day is currently 14.9% here). By the same token, that 1.66 for the 163 short call is 7.67 annualized or 4.9% as a function of stock price. That isn't hugely sexy, but when you add that to TLT's current yield of 1.56%, I could think of worse places to park my money for a little bit while I ramp up other positions in the new year.
TLT Bull Flag?? Balance your portfolios for Risk A stock account starting the 2020 year split 60-40, SPY to TLT would have a identical YTD return as a 100% portfolio of Stocks.
At the low the balanced portfolio would have been down 10% as opposed to 31% of all stock. Key takeaway in 1999 and 2007 it took the SPX 5+ years to recover, not 5 months.
Maybe smart to Diversify when stocks are going nutty high, not after the fact.
TLT - $155 Entry / Descending Broadening Wedge / $Breakout $160 0. This was easy money;
1. Descending Broadening Wedge shows the sentiment as we drift waiting for more lower rates, and stimulus.
2. Breakout from $160;
3. Heading to $180;
4. Value and Bonds looking good right now. Bonds + Value + A Little Tech for Juice.
Bonds and Oil May Show Reopening Excitement FadeFor over a month, the stock market has priced in a post-Covid reopening. Now there could be signs of that trend exhausting itself.
First and foremost is the recent double-bottom on the iShares 20+ Year Bond ETF. We cited downside in this instrument twice as it hit the top of its channel. But it made a slightly higher low/double following the last drop. That could suggest the intermediate-term downtrend, in place since August, has run its course for now.
There are also some potential positives for bonds as coronavirus cases and jobless claims rise. Even with a vaccine coming, the near-term employment picture is grim because restaurants and hotels appear to have maxed out their rehiring for now. Recent data from the Labor Department suggests they could start bleeding jobs again.
Second, there’s the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. Officials have indicated they want to start buying longer-term Treasury bonds, which this ETF holds. Incremental mention of the new policy could help boost TLT.
Third, TLT just had a bullish inside week, which means its range is tightening.
Next are the intermarket conditions. Oil rallied on reopening hopes and the vaccine news. That could have been “buy the rumor.” Now that Pfizer’s shipping its drug, will investors “sell the news?” The fundamentals on oil haven’t been great either. OPEC+ has achieved little in terms of lasting production cuts. Inventories have also been higher than expected for several weeks. (Last week EIA’s total rose by 15.2 million barrels, the biggest increase since April.)
Finally, crude-oil futures have a outside day/spinning top candle stick today. The major energy ETFs like SPDR Energy and SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production also have bearish engulfing days.
Oil and energy tend to move in the opposite direction as bonds, so that could be another potential positive for TLT.
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TLT LONG wait for confirmationTLT Broke out intraday at 158, but wait for Breakout above trend line to go long.
TLT about to POP?TLT looks ready for liftoff. Deeply oversold, potential for a double bottom at channel support. I am expecting volatility to pick up as well, so I think Bonds could see a nice tailwind if we get any bearish action going in equities.
TLT LongAt Sideway Consolidation bottom
PlanA
Entry 156.5
Stop 152
Target 179
Next Demand Zone is a better entry point
PlanB
Entry 140
Stop 135
Target 170
I am not a PRO trader. I need few months to practice trading strategies.
If you like this idea, please use SIM/Demo account to try it, until my trading plans get high winning rate.
$TLTRunaway market has put TLT in descending channel
currently at a key level
If this is lost. expecting to visit 151 ish
