Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF forum
TLT Lately I've been seeing articles about 10yr and longer yields will be going up, not down during the rare cuts. I don't get it. Can long term yields actually increase during rate cuts? Another way I imagine it, is will there be net sellers in the long term bond market, or net buyers over the next 18 months? Makes more sense to me to expect yields to go down as people seek safe haven. but these articles are getting the best of me
TLT all aboard the recession rocket ship
TLT I’m going to be buying more if this goes lower.
TLT late cycle investment has been here for almost 9 months, expecting tlt to skyrocket next year
TLT What is an easy landing? What is a recession? What are rate cuts? What is market value? What for real are bonds? It never sinks in. Is there anywhere I can find a simple current explanation?TLT way below weekly moving average. I expect 109ish area in coming months as fed cuts rates. Safe play in a market like this. Good luck everybody.
US10Y TLT 
DXY I know market is reacting to the jobs number and trying to interpret it, but today's jobs number does not add up. So jobs number came in strong at 272k, which is way above forecast, but the unemployment rate rose to 4% with labor participation rate dropping. And if you look at the fine print, you see full-time employment drop by -625,000 while part-time rose by 286,000. How is this a strong job market? Also, all of the previous numbers were revised down, so I suspect this jobs number is highly likely to be revised down.
TLT I see two scenarios:- inflation stays high, so FED keeps rates high until something breaks and then the stock market goes down. FED will lower the rates in an attempt to save the market. TLT will rise.
- inflation goes down as unemployment ticks higher. TLT goes up
So either situation is a long TLT. It's a safe bet with 3.5% divident - all you have to do is collect the dividend and wait for it to tick higher.
TLT If folk are still bullish on equities and we keep setting ATH on stocks, bonds have a long way to go to reach true demand. Honestly I think TLT sets new lows before it begins to be really bought. It appears like investors are okay with the higher for longer narrative, as long as main street can survive under tight financial conditions. Not sure why everyone is willing to call 85 or 90 a "great buy oppurtunity".
TLT watching the 10Y very closely, it goes up at TLT goes down