TQQQ long 35.25 add 34 sl 31 clsing basis . lets see if its in a mood to bounce , pretty oversold if you ask me but my view is for long term term so keep your losses small if wrong and be ready to look for bargains whenever it presents itself
TQQQ trade ideas
Opening (IRA): TQQQ December 29th 34.5 Covered Call... for a 33.04 debit.
Comments: Selling the monied -75 delta call against a one lot to potentially take advantage of early random call away/*assignment. 33.04 break even with a 1.46 ($146) max profit; 4.42% ROC/32.9% annualized as a function of buying power effect at max.
"Random" call away occurs when someone holding the 34.5 long call choses to exercise it before expiration, but I'll look to close at or near max (e.g., 34.45) to avoid the call away/assignment fee if I get the opportunity to do so.
On the flip side of the coin, I'll look to roll out the short call to reduce cost basis and my break even further if it chooses to crap its pants.
Opened (IRA): TQQQ December 22nd 35 Covered Call... for a 33.55 debit.
Comments: Selling the -75 delta call against ... .
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Share Price Break Even: 33.55
Max Profit: 1.45
ROC %-age At Max As a Function of Buying Power Effect: 4.32%
ROC %-age at 50% of Max: 2.16%
Delta/Theta: 26.44/2.98
Here's why I'm doing this instead of selling a put at the delta equivalent strike (the +25): if you look at the 25 delta put in the same expiry at the 35, it's paying around 1.27 at the mid (i.e., $127 max). The delta equivalent covered call setup has a slightly better max payout at 1.45 ($145) probably due to a couple of things: (a) IV skew (it's slightly higher on the call side than on the put); and (c) call skew. Relatedly, the short put break even is 33.73 relative the 33.55 break even of the covered call setup.
I also wanted to see what the frequency of monied covered call random call away of shares was; most literature suggests early, random assignment is somewhat rare (around 7%) but there isn't much information out there in addition to that, such as when the highest likelihood of early exercise is (it's most likely when the extrinsic value in the call is de minimus) or how deeply monied the call is (which is related to how much extrinsic is left in the long call that the other person would be exercising; deeper in-the-money options have less extrinsic in them relative to less monied options of the same duration). This could naturally give the setup a slight edge over a short put, since an early exercise by a counter-party would result in max profit without having to wait until all the extrinsic has leaked out of the monied short call.
Opening (IRA): TQQQ December 15th 30 Short Put... for a 1.10 credit.
Comments: High IV. An engagement trade targeting the 16 delta (ish). Going small with this starter position, with an eye toward adding at intervals.
Opening (IRA): TQQQ January 19th 27 Short Put... for a 1.37 credit.
Comments: Targeting the 16 delta strike here, adding a rung out in January at a strike better than what I currently have on in December at the 30.
Opening (IRA): TQQQ Dec/Jan 27/26 Short PutsComments: Targeting the 16 delta here to emulate dollar cost averaging into the underlying at strikes slightly better than what I currently have on.
December 15th 27: 1.06 credit
January 19th 26: 1.41 credit
Opening (IRA): TQQQ Dec 15th/Jan 19th 24/23 Short PutsComments: Adding a couple rungs at strikes better than what I currently have on, targeting the 16 delta strike to emulate dollar cost averaging in.
December 15th 24: .81 credit
January 19th 23: 1.15 credit
Long TQQQ for a swing long @ 34.57 to 40Playing the daily stoch on bottom turning up
bouncing off support 200 day
I am going post this chart update everyday and how I will play that
stoch to the top and be ready short.
TQQQ swing using DPO 63
Select DPO 63 on TQQQ
Price in 1 dollar levels on right side
DPO levels on left side
Max Pain Max Ex OTM 40 calls at highest OI
Trade chart TA down above the 0 line
Trade chart TA up below the 0 line
Sell OTM calls above the 0 line
maximum-pain.com
TQQQ Bullish long termBuying now and taking profit at point "1".
It could go to point "1.1" else will retest point 2 and go to 3.
Textbook Bearish Butterfly Really nice example of a potential butterfly correction pattern.
D leg forming with ABCD inside of it.
Super parabolic into the PRZ.
Classic bear engulfing candles in the PRZ.
Usually when the harmonic is working here this slams really hard off the retest.
Creating MillionairesWell, some would call me crazy. But that's my long term view:
TQQQ made 200x since inception in February 2010 until his top in November 2021.
Now, in my opinion, we are in the middle of a Bear Market.
My expectation is that this Bear Market will last till December 22 until June 23.
After that the next Bull market should start.
My expectation for the Nasdaq 100 is to trade around 47.500 Points after this 10 Year Bull Market, which would take the TQQQ to around 1000.
This would equal a 100x from the Bear Market lows, which I expect around 10.
Of course no one can predict the future but I would also be happy with just 50x in 10 Years :D
And I really think that this is a possible scenario.
So here is my plan:
in December 2022 i will start investing all of my money into TQQQ.
For the next 5 years i will put everything into TQQQ too.
AND finally in 2034 I'm hopefully a multimillionaire.
See you guys in 2034 :D
(not a financial advise)
TQQQ Weekly Big PictureIm a little bit torn in the potential outcome of the market for the next few months. There are a few major considerations that I have when viewing differences in certain charts that almost contradict some of the ideas I may have for upcoming trades.
One thing at the back of my mind has me thinking that the bottom of the market has not been seen just yet, and we will likely retest the pre - covid level on the SPY / SPX before moving higher.
However, if we take a look at charts such as TQQQ and SQQQ, we can see that these ETF's have already seen a massive collapse and broken through pre-covid levels, inevitably finding support at a weekly trend line before making its way back up while respecting current fib levels.
Additionally, SQQQ has seen the lowest price to date without the market reaching an all time high. Are these potentially giving us a hint to where the market may move?
On the long term, I am leaning more bullish unless we see some kind of Black Swan event that will trigger a fast flush , and potentially even enough to change the course of the FED policy before we see the larger move for the next business cycle.
The Day Ahead: TQQQ, GDXJ, USO, GDX, FXI Premium SellingIt's Friday ... the 13th. Here's what's shakin' in exchange-traded fund premium selling ... .
Top 5 Options Liquid ETF's Ranked by 30-Day IV:
TQQQ 22.9 IVR/60.4 IV
GDXJ 23.6/38.9
USO 46.4/38.8
GDX 26.0/33.6
FXI 14.8/31.4
Ideally, you want to have IVR at >50 and IV at >35% in ETF premium-selling land, but you can't have everything in this market ... .
Broad Market Shortest Duration <16 Delta Strike Paying 1% of the Strike Price In Credit:
IWM, the January 19th 151, paying 1.58 at the mid (14 delta)
QQQ, the January 19th 325, paying 3.44 at the mid (15 delta)
SPY, the February 16th 385, paying 3.93 at the mid (15 delta)
Me, Personally
Currently, I still have quite a bit of broad market on in fourth quarter expiries, with the majority being in the December monthly and the end-of-quarter December 29th. (I have one IWM straggler on in the November monthly). I've begun to deploy out a smidge into the 2024 first quarter), but may just sit on my hands this week depending on whether I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on.
Because of that, I may dabble small with TQQQ as an engagement trade (and to see what all the fuss is about). Pictured here is a 16 delta short put at the 30 strike in the December 15th monthly paying 1.01 at the mid which I'll do as a starter position and then work it from there as I wait on my other positions.
I also already have a GDXJ covered call on (See Post Below), but may add a short put to give me a little extra sumthin' sumthin' on that play.
Understanding Long-Term SPX500 & QQQ Cycle PhasesMy continued effort to share my research, experience, and expectations with the TradingView community has allowed me the freedom to create forward-looking content to help traders/investors understand the real risks/opportunities going forward.
If my research is correct, then next 5+ years will be incredibly difficult for skilled traders/investors. I don't believe the US markets will enter a real organic growth phase until after 2025 (possibly in 2026 or later).
There are many reasons for this extended contraction phase in the US/Global markets. Most importantly is a broad cycle phase related to societal changes. Secondly, we have a Sine-wave structure that confirms a contracting price phase needs to reach a base/equilibrium before it will be able to extend into an organic growth phase.
As a trader, investor, or just someone trying to protect your family, your home, your children, and more, you need to understand the value of PROTECTING CAPITAL before taking on foolish risks. That is exactly what I'm trying to help you manage and understand - where opportunities exist in the markets over the next 5 to 15+ years.
Watch this video, then click on my profile to watch some of my other TradingView videos.
We live in a world where what happened 3 weeks ago is almost forgotten. These cycle phases exist, continue to drive price setups/trends, and will continue.
Are you ready for what's next?
$TQQQ Wave 4 Complete?Id like to see Wave 4 is complete here at the lower end of the channel but we are having difficulty with this overhead resistance here. Potential inverse head & shoulders if we do lose the neckline / support.
Id look for a bounce at the lower end of the trend, and one could begin to argue, IF we pivot, we could be forming a falling wedge.
Below that i would for a 50% retracement of wave 3 into the gap zone.
A new high above resistance here would likely take us to 52, and then into the extension zone between the 1.618 and 2.0
In combination with weakness from the DXY, id lean with the bulls for now, but with the rates meeting today, im not ruling anything out, especially while we are under the local resistance zone and potential "shoulders".
Monday FOMC PatternThere will be two scalp opportunities in the morning based on historical Monday data that falls on FOMC week. Look for tight boxable action from 1115 to 130. Go take a long walk, read a book, call your mom. This action looks untradeable. A couple of scalping opportunities arise after 135 up til 200PM. With a small dip, and a resumed move into the close.
Some notes of caution. You should read these as potential swing times, but not read them as market direction. If market direction holds, great, but if market direction inverses, then uses these marked times as swing points. Cheers hope it helps!
TQQQ LONG
These high demands have previously proven to be difficult to achieve, and it is highly probable that the market will experience a rebound from these levels, unless there are any significant shifts in fundamental news that could alter the market's current direction.
TQQQ sell to buy programI think we may have a good short trading opportunity to take price to 27 level and after that a long buy trade for long term will be opened and left
The Q.Watch to see if we got some confirmations
Clean breakout through 45. let her rip tater chip.
Could break down to 32.
$TQQQ TA for tomorrow since nvda beats their Er . we expected price to pull back to our pwl (40.42)and tunr it into a new support. our next rejection level should be the next 4 hr premium array (42.31) ..
$tqqq recap beautiful everything play out as expected. price even break our our premium array without a consolidation . very great day finish the day with a 67% return . greatefull.. see you guys tnext day for a new tqq TA
