TRAN trade ideas
NQ Trans - DOW Trans Divergence - 3xDOW Transportation is not confirming the rise in YM DIA DOW INDU.
NQ Trans is holding its own for now.
Semi (SMH) is showing immense declines in availability of Semiconductors.
Disruptions affecting EPS will come into play in Q3 EPS.
Simply look at APPL, M2 and M1X ARMs are delayed.
AMD has reached its peak EPS as well.
INTC is sourcing Via its own FABs beginning in 2023/2024.
TECH will be wrecked - Tick Tock.
Tesla, pushing Berlin / Texas ramp up as Sales go off the cliff.
DJTA Update # 1****Please see my DJTA post six days ago****
The DJTA could be the most important stock index to watch. It's Elliott wave structure is very clear and it's development appears to be more advanced than the SPX and DJIA. Meaning it could be a very good early indicator for movements in both the SPX and DJIA.
Minor wave "4" down appears to have begun. Daily Stochastics has a bearish cross over. The daily MACD recently had a double bearish divergence and is on the verge of a bearish cross over.
If the wave count is correct, Minor wave "4" could bottom in the 8800-9000 area in the next two to three weeks.
This current move down in the DJTA could be the prelude to a 4-5% decline in the SPX and DJIA.
Both of these indices appear to still be in developing Minor wave "3" if so their respective wave "3" tops could be days or weeks later.
I will have updates on the DJTA progress.
Mark
DJTA Could be Leading the WayThe Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) has a clearer and perhaps more advanced Elliott wave structure than the SPX.
More advanced means the DJTA is further along in the development of an impulse wave.
The DJTA can now count as having completed Minor wave "3" while the SPX still looks like it needs more sub divisions to complete its Minor wave "3" of a possible "five" waves up from the 2/11/16 bottom.
If theses wave counts are correct, the DJTA could record a major top before the SPX and DJIA.
Possible major top time zone is April - May.
Watch the DJTA.
I will have follow up posts on the progress of the DJTA.
Mark
2008 or 2009Transports Analog from 07-08 looks very similar. The question that most people are asking themselves is whether the February lows were the major cycle turn. Many markets put in convincing lows in Feb 2016. However, the damage was limited and very brief. Other markets are putting blow off type top's and with the interest rate cycle ahead, the question is whether that will repeat a similar 07-08 type situation. Look for more charts with historic analog's in the days ahead.
DJTA confirms important secondary topThis is an update to my post last month on the DJTA.
The DJTA needed to move above 8149 to confirm a Double Zigzag pattern up from the January 2016 bottom.
This confirmation was made on 10/4/16 and came close to .618 resistance.
This implies a move down at least back to the January bottom has begun.
Mark
DJTA 1.2% MOVE UP ON 9/7/16 IMPLIES MORE UPSIDEIn my 9/6/16 post I noted a Fibonacci time cycle due on 9/7/16 and a possible secondary high at SPX 2187-2188 near the open. The target was achieved one hour into the trading day then declined about 8 points followed by a rally in the second half of the day almost back to the high of the day. That the SPX could retrace so much of the decline is a clue that the bulls may still be in control. What happen on the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) was an even stronger clue of bullishness, with this index rallying 1.2 %. If a significant decline was about to begin its doubtful the DJTA could have such a big move up.
The DJTA from its all-time high in 2014 declined in a Elliott five wave pattern and appears to be in later stage of a three wave counter trend up to the .618 retracement of the entire bear market. Confirmation that wave (C) could be complete would be a move above the (A) wave peak at DJTA 8149 only 92 points away, it could reach that level in one or two trading days. The next Fibonacci time cycle comes 9/9/16 which is 5 trading days after the last Fibonacci turn date on 9/1/16.
If the DJTA can reach 8149 it may coincide with an SPX possible top in the 2200 area.
*** On the DJTA chart I mistakenly left the label (B) off the June 2016 DJTA bottom, sorry for any confusion.
Mark
CL1! Oil near and long termI think the dollar makes yet another move higher short term, with Japan expected to do more QE, emerging markets hurting and yet even more currency devaluing their only alternative ( see India's latest 1% move). But their is a TIPPING POINT to currency devaluing, see Brazil. The US FED needs inflation, and cannot get it until everyone else stops devaluing currencies and dollar drops. Gencore and copper prices both failing and falling. Everything points to yet another drop in oil to the right shoulder completion levels, or further? The completion of the RS may actually cause failures and collapses in OIl based economies, both corporate and EM countries. DOWT leads, lower oil was good, then too low as bad, dollar higher effecting international commerce, and lower gas helped people, but many saved the savings rather than spend it. Japan's latest manufacturing output lowered yet again, indicating contracting Asian economies (China too). Its a long running train this trend, slow to stop and turn around. When oil dips yet again, the markets will feel it, and any kinds of QE will this time be ineffective. If anyone could qualify and needed to borrow at zero to do anything, they have already done it. Fed raises rates in December, really, who cares, too little too late, and raise when by then bad news will continue? Raising rates will only increase dollar strength, when the ONLY THING THAT CAN SAVE THIS MARKET IS RISING COMMODITIES AND INFLATION. The pitch fork rules and Oil's HS RS completes, for now. After that, although the charts would suggest a huge bounce in everything, if OIL does not, representing even higher dollar and lower commodities, watch out below stock market, where she stops no one knows. Watching for the flight to safety Gold trade, and still do not see it. If that happens, could be a panic stock sell flash crash. Gold is your sign, because High yield bonds are junk, safe bonds are not safe anymore, cash will devalue.
