Great Value Investing in Turkey StocksCombination of lower inflation and growing economy will propel higher
TUR trade ideas
Msci TUR accumulation over?Turkish economy suffering a huger recession whereas admins and didn't want to declare it. After a year and a half I believe the real reason behind could be a huge rally to perform before confessing the huge debt crisis.
If I m not mistaken in above hypothesis, we are in the early days of a 3rd of 3rd wave in Elliott and some very interesting news is about to come to either dump the dollar or pump Turkish economy. I think the first is more probable.
TUR Triple bottomTurkey invaded Syria, Trump will throw another Twitter fit this weekend. Rolled into some puts this morning, will add if it rebounds. Trumps actions will probably get announced over the weekend, that's what happened the last time the Lyra took a crap.
Will probably dump the puts Monday regardless.
$TUR those of you who played it, was a good play.listed this one about a month ago, congrats to the buyers at the wedge.
Short the TURdWhen in doubt, short garbage. Small position in July $23 puts, for kicks and giggles. It's coming off an overbought condition, but the ETF is not always indicative of currency trade or BIST.
Turkey news flowNASDAQ:TUR The chart is bearish, the put options are bid but I'm telling you, you've missed the party. I think she finds support as shown.
TOPSY-TURVY TURKEY? $TURInteresting to note that despite the nice gains Turkish equities saw in January 2019 (+15.7%) to make up for December 2018 (-6.87%), the asset class has experienced some nasty losses in February (-3.63%) and March (-4.36% so far) - all of which are quickly eroding all YTD gains.
Its the only EM market to have suffered such losses so far (rivaling that of South Africa). To add insult to injury, it appears that Turkish equities have had great difficult trying to break through its 50-Day EMA as well, indicating global equity investors are loosing faith in Turkish equities.
To complicate matters even further, the Turkisk Lira (USD/TRY) has been down 3.46% against the US Dollar so far in 2019, putting further stress on the currency.
In continuation from last year, it may mean that markets are trying to tell us something about the health of the Turkish economy for 2019. As global investors continue to shed Turkish assets throughout 2019, this is one space investors should be very wary of investing in over the next little while.
We recommend caution against Turkish assets.
Dropping the TURdLira tanking again, BIST (Turkish market) looks bearish as well. When panic sets into either one, this will tank hard and fast. Chart wise, it looks like it's going to break support.
In for some March 15 puts.
TURdI have no idea why anyone would invest in Turkey. In any case, it looks like the rally is done, bought some Feb puts.
TURdCan't believe I just did this but I picked up Jan $25 calls for $0.20 in case they pop this up like they did last January. It's an all or nothing play, keep it small.
In the long run, TURkey is cooked, the Lyra will tank like a TURd because inflation is at 20%, who wants to invest in that?
TURdI think the Lira rally is over, TUR appears to have broken the trendline. Keep in mind that this is not currency hedged, so you're basically betting against the Lira currency.
I'm always looking for things to short since I can't get bullish on this market. I expect the US market to bounce later this week, but that won't help the Lira.
The panic is light...The panic is light. In the Turkish markets, the beginning of the coming week may bring less relief. Although at this moment it seems to be quite temporary. The exchange rate of TUR has built up a full three wave structure decline. He is currently trying to construct an ABC correction wave structure. This ABC correction wave structure can bring a few days of relaxation.
OPENING: TUR SEPT 21ST 19 SHORT PUT ... .... for a 1.05/contract credit. High rank/implied (100/78).
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 73%
Max Profit: 1.05 ($105)/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/$194/contract
Break Even: 17.95
Delta: 27.47
Theta: 2.17
Notes: Taking advantage of the Turkish meltdown to sell some puts.
TUR Weekly bullish gartley + butterfly v.s Systematic riskThe USDTRY trade 2 days ago was probably one of the best trade I've ever traded and called out.
With Turkey has such a huge systematic risk, TUR also got sold off on Friday.
While, it's going to 2 weekly bullish harmonic patterns combination D point spot.
the most reasonable answer to the understanding of these 2 patterns is
"Not inclined to chase the short below 20.00"
If being super risk lover, looking for DAILY reversal sign to try some long may worth the risk,
but if you won't define yourself a super risk lover, even though being bearish on it, wait for price above 26 to sell high is a much better idea to chase the short now.
Let's see how it goes!
TUR - TurkeyEveryone's aware of the crisis in Turkey, I'm just here to play it.
Sold -1 Sep21 19/22 Big lizard for $3.06 cr.
Risk: 1x cr received
Profit: 25-30% of cr received
Breakevens: $15.94 to the downside, no upside risk.
#tur ...would buy turkey at this level chart is showing a nice buy setup ... would you do it and buy at $18
