ULTA trade ideas
ULTA, Beauty OR BeastEntry level $244 with target anywhere from $265-$330
Falling knife or bottom feeding, this is high risk to look on the long side, but the technical indicators are turning bullish and guidance could surprise.
The last quarter lead to a massacre in the stock.
P/E ratio 20
6.12 % short interest
Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a beauty retailer of cosmetics, fragrance, skin care products, hair care products, and salon services. It provides unmatched product breadth, value and convenience in a distinctive specialty retail environment. The company was founded in January 9, 1990 and is headquartered in Bolingbrook, IL.
THE WEEK AHEAD: ULTA EARNINGS; APA, UNG, VIXEARNINGS:
Earnings are light in the coming week, with ULTA (90/47) being the best candidate metrically for a earnings-related volatility contraction play, although its liquidity isn't great.
Pictured here is a 205/210/265/270 iron condor in the January cycle that is paying 2.06 at the mid (1.03 at 50% max). Markets, however, are showing wide here.
SINGLE NAME WITH EARNINGS IN THE REAR VIEW:
APA (100/71)
CGC (75/89)
NTNX (66/43)
X (52/27)
See APA, CGC posts below.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS:
UNG (51/54)
USO (37/37)
TLT (34/12)
XLE (26/19)
FXI (23/20)
XOP (23/34)
First expiries in which at-the-money short straddle pays >10% of the value of the underlying:
UNG: January, 2.84 versus 17.83 (15.9%)
USO: April, 1.84 versus 11.62 (15.8%)
TLT: January of '21, 14.78 versus 140.42 (10.5%)
XLE: June, 7.20 versus 58.89 (12.2%)
FXI: May, 4.18 versus 40.94 (10.2%)
XOP: January, 2.06 versus 20.36 (10.1%)
Already up to my nipples in oil and gas plays, so may consider a small FXI position. Naturally, May is a bit farther out in time than I'd like -- the 36/46 short strangle camped out around the 16 delta is paying 1.06 there.
BROAD MARKET:
QQQ (4/15)
IWM (4/15)
SPY (4/12)
First expiries in which at-the-money short straddle pays >10% of the value of the underlying:
QQQ: June, 21.71 versus 205.10 (10.6%)
IWM: June, 16.34 versus 161.77 (10.1%)
SPY: Sept, 34.63 versus 314.31 (11.0%)
QQQ June 181/226 20 delta short strangle, 6.48 credit (1.62 at 25% max; 3.24 at 50% max)
IWM June 143/180 20 delta put/16 delta call* short strangle, 4.33 credit (1.08 at 25% max; 2.17 at 50% max)
SPY September 274/345 20 delta short strangle, 10.70 credit (2.68 at 25% max; 5.35 at 50% max).
* -- Strikes on the call side are 5-wide at the moment, with the 180 at the 16, the 175 at the 25.
FUTURES:
/6B (63/14)
/NG (51/90)
/ZF (39/3)
/CL (37/39)
/ZN (37/4)
OVX popped big on Friday, so I will look to add short premium setups in /CL if that nearly 37 print hangs in there over the next couple of sessions.
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES:
With /VX futures contracts trading at 16.39, 17.65, and 17.86 in January, February, and March, respectively. VIX term structure trades remain viable for those expiries. For everything else, wait for a pop in VIX -- which finished Friday's session at 12.62 ... .
ULTA Buy ULTA from 230$ , Bullish Divergence ,The target is 241$.
The next targets and support you will see in the chart.
Good luck((
$ULTA YOLO Gap Fill potentialLooking at a gorgeous falling wedge pattern sitting under a huge Gap that's eager to get filled. based on this price action, a potential breakout (or breakdown) is due sometime before Christmas. Lets see if it has enough momentum to break through these resistances and take a swing for gap fill!
ULTA at bottom of channel - Back to 250 before next earnings.ULTA has strong support at the current price and will start heading back up today or tomorrow. Expect 250+ before earnings in a couple of weeks.
ULTA Ready to Regain?Its been up and down for ULTA for the past few weeks but technical indicators with SMA cross over on day's trend along with volume and direction, looks like it's heading north again. Next stop if the strong push continues will be around $259
Ulta Longwedge could lead to a breakout, price is also close to support for a potential double bottom formation.
Long ULTAProbable back fill of the gap on the daily chart to roughly $314. Clean bullish divergences on the RSI and MACD to support back fill scenario.
ULTA "Beauty" - How Beautiful Is It Really?This is a MONTHLY chart. Each candle represents one month of price action.
Quick question. When a stock goes up, can we all agree that the market is buying it? Well of coarse! And we should be able to draw an up trend line that touches 2 or more candle lows to visually represent an increase in price over time.
One more quick question. What does it mean if we are able to draw other up trend lines that are steeper? Maybe it means that the market is buying it faster so it is going up faster? The series of steeper trend lines on this chart are my focus...
Let's focus on The Up Trend lines.
The first one starts in March of 2009 and has an angle of elevation of 21 degrees. Let's call this one UT#1.
The next starts in September of 2010 and has an angle of elevation of 27 degrees. Let's call this one UT#2.
The last one on this chart started in June of 2014 and has an angle of elevation of 40 degrees. Let's call this one UT#3.
I hope you can agree that owning ULTA from June, 2014 to now would have given you the fastest increase in value. Hence the 40 degree angle of elevation. Now that the history is behind us, we naturally want to know about the future... Anybody have a crystal ball that works??? My Dad had one but it had a crack in it I think. Oh yea, it was real foggy too. Especially when I asked him to tell me if the market or a stock was going to go up or down. I miss him alot...
Let's get back to the future... Remember this basic rule about trend lines. Price will either bounce at the trend line, loiter around the trend line, or go through the trend line. If ULTA bounces here, we can all agree the is a great place to get long. Entries Matter!! Your potential profit depends on it! If ULTA loiters around the trend line, you will have a hard time knowing what comes next so why be long or short? I wouldn't be either. If ULTA breaks down below the trend line, it might be a good time to be short. At least take some profits. Yes, I know, I just said "short" ULTA... It is always a possibility.
ULTA's price dropped below UT#3 in september but then went back above it by the end of the month. In October ULTA was higher than the September candle high but is now back to UT#3. This is not a good sign for longs. It is time to watch this closely. 40% of October is still in front of us so just watch ULTA. Don't go making any rash decisions. Decide what your "line in the sand" is. Mine would be UT#3. Or the open of September's candle. Or the low of the August candle. If you sell at your line in the sand, and ULTA bounces, you can always buy it back.
Protect your profits!!
$ULTA Short term Target $275 In Ulta BeautySpeculation that Pershing square has taken a stake in the stock could result in quite a rally.
The stock is currently within a channel with a $275 price target.
Indicators are bullish and Bollinger bands look like a move higher is coming.
Average analysts price target $292 | Overweight
Short interest 6.2%
P/E Ratio 21 which is well valued.
ULTA Gap Fill?!This a trade set up I'm watching for next week, once price enters that purple box we should fly up to about 320 I put the target at 328 because that's where the 0.618 fib extension and second gap are located. This chart is also based on info of insider trading and a cup & handle formation check out the attached chart for more on that.
ULTA (Cup & Handle)Insider Charles Heilbronn bought 243,849 shares on 2019-09-30 at $241.52 and I see a cup and handle formation going on day 5 of daily candle closes.
ULTA, Bullish again?Hopefully continues the trend back up. Comment your thoughts about where this stock is headed below.
Volume is also above average ever since the big dropoff
