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Upstart Holdings, Inc.Upstart Holdings, Inc.Upstart Holdings, Inc.

Upstart Holdings, Inc.

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UPST trade ideas

$UPST - Possible mega gapperI have only 1 day's worth of DD on this symbol on my belt so i'd consider this to be more of a gamble than anything. My data shows a Wykcoff distribution towards the last leg where the distribution would start to move downwards. If it's correct, tomorrow we'll see a really big gapper down on UPST around the $23-$33 range Honestly i'm really skeptical of this trade but i have thrown a part of this month's salary on it by being long short UPST. This trade doesn't make a lot of sense and is likely to go extremely wrong for me, but i'm in and i'm going to try it simply because i need to test my theory based on my own data. The best way to test a hypothesis is to just test it... I have skin in the game now... let's see how this goes. I wouldn't follow me into this trade. This is just an idea based on very little data i've looked at and DD i've done. Basically, the company's fundamentals are in a really bad spot which is a perfect time for the company to suddenly announce something silly like debt restructuring which would make it's price go up a lot when everyone else expects it to go down. E.g i think my short will be blown up by "Unforseen circumstances", but alas, let's see...
NASDAQ:UPSTShort
by leenixusu
10
UpstartHoldings' stock has reached its low point in January 2022UpstartHoldings' stock has reached its low point in January 2022 This chart shows the weekly candle chart of UpstartHoldings' stocks in the past six months. The graph overlays the recent bottom-up golden section. As shown in the figure, the recent high point of UpstartHoldings' stock has reached its low point in January 2022, but it has not given it the 2.382 gold split in the figure! The stocks of UpstartHoldings are currently in the second small band of accelerated growth after a double dip, and there is still a lot of upside space in the later stage! In the future, it is likely to continue to strengthen after retreating from the 1.382 position of the golden section in the chart!
NASDAQ:UPST
by Think_More
This AI Startup has lots of potential!Upstart is a Loan Provider that uses AI to automate the Process of giving out Loans, this reduces the costs drastically, so they are much cheaper and a lot more profitable . The Stock went from 400 Dollars to only 10 Dollars, but the AI-Hype pushed the Stock back up to 70 Dollars. Upstart has risen 600% in the last 3 months! The Stock formed a rising Channel but broke down a few days ago and is now retesting the Parabolic Curve. If Upstart goes below the Curve it will probably go down to a Range between 20-30 Dollars . On August 8th the Quarter Results will be published and they will probably be negative. I will update you! Have a nice Day!
NASDAQ:UPSTShort
by HenrikDaCrypto
Pre-Earnings Run in $UPSTNASDAQ:UPST has been running up speculatively after completing its bottom. It has mostly retail groups and smaller funds holding so that is why the stock has up and down days in an irrational trend pattern often. HFTs are in the mix regularly inspiring the speculation. The company reports Monday of next week. Looks like Pro Traders used a swing trading earnings strategy and some took profits ahead of the report. The stock has a low percentage of the shares held by institutions, so emotional trading candlestick patterns are problematic at times. It's important to buy and sell with the Pro Trader patterns in speculative stocks.
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:UPST
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
7
UPST mid-term VIEW Pre Earning LONGUPST on the daily chart with 2022-2023 in range shows a downtrend of more than 70% and now a round bottom reversal. The volume profile shows the high volumes of the high volume area which is relatively thin and mostly below the current price. That is to say, UPST has a lot of volume voids to fill on its way back to $162 . The Triple EMA ( 200,100,50) shows a convergence over a long interval followed by the reversal and now divergence. The MACD indicator is upgoing as are the trends of the dual RS lines of the RSI indicator. I see this as a long swing trade or investment while UPST is awaiting earnings next month. For targets, I plan the red lines generated by the volume profite and so $94 and $161. UPST is on my current favorite stock list. My current holding includes an option striking $51 for 8/4. I will roll that option over about 8/2 to avoid time decay. Additionally, I will buy another option striking $75 and expiring on 9/15 costing about $950 at the market price with the bid/ask spread of about 4%. I expect the combined two call optins will yield on average 5-7% per trading day and may hold them through the earnings period. The only downside risk is that an earnings beat is somehow already priced into UPST and that the momentum will decelerate and fade. Buying the contact cheap and out of the money seeks to manage that risk.
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by AwesomeAvani
25
UPST ready to run higherUPST on the daily chart is 65% below its highs of March 22 . It rose above the long term POC line of the volume profile two months ago after a favorable earnings report. Another earnings will report in a month. There has been very little trading above the current price in the visible range. This means there is little volume resistance to price rise. Price is presently at the longterm mean VWAP anchored 16 months in the past and got there by rising from the support of the line one standard deviation below the mean aVWAP. On the zero-lag MACD, the lines have first crossed under the histogram and then ascended in parallel above the zero line in yet another sign of bullish momentum. Lastly, the three in one indicator including money flow is all green. I readily conclude that UPST is set up well for a long swing trade targetting just below the mentioned swing highs and so $160 or so. This would be about 200% while setting a stop loss at $50. I believe the trade offers a great potential reward to risk and so will open this position while identifying an entry on the 15-30 minute chart looking for a pivot low.
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by AwesomeAvani
22
$UPST Back On TrackThe AI lending giant Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) is up more than 150% since last month due to a short squeeze after sharing positive Q1 earnings. Considering the improving macro environment, UPST stock can continue squeezing especially with the Fed potentially pausing rate hikes this year. With the FOMC meeting scheduled for June 13th and 14th, UPST stock could soar on a dovish pause. UPST Fundamentals Rate Hike Pause Since UPST is an AI fintech company, it is well-positioned to benefit from both the increasing interest the AI sector has been seeing recently and the expectations that the Fed will pause rate hikes in June as a hike pause can help UPST in more than one way. For starters, demand for UPST loans may increase as people and institutions become more willing to take loans as interest rates stabilize and the macroeconomic climate improves. Secondly, because the interest rate appears to be approaching its peak, financial institutions might be more willing to buy loans held by UPST. On that note, Castlelake has previously committed to purchasing up to $4 billion in consumer installment loans from Upstart, which indicates Castlelake’s confidence in UPST and its belief in the potential of the consumer credit and specialty finance sector. The loan purchase also addresses UPST’s concerns about keeping loans on its balance sheet and demonstrates that UPST can sell more loans in the future. Disturbing The Market Through AI UPST’s main selling point is its AI loan assessment tool, which the company claims is significantly more accurate than traditional lending models like Fair Isaac Corporation’s (NYSE: FICO). That may be true since UPST’s model outperformed FICO’s model in categorizing loans into different risk grades by a fair margin. Furthermore, 84% of UPST’s loans are automated with no human intervention whatsoever which is the highest in the industry. UPST is also retaining an outstanding 83 net promoter score (NPS) with brands like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) that are known for their loyal customers only standing between 61 and 68 between different products. If UPST can prove to the banking sector that its loan assessment model is better than other models like FICO’s that might see UPST’s current PPS as a bargain. Short Data While short interest has decreased for UPST stock by almost 10% since February 2022, UPST stock is still seeing a high short interest rate despite the positive Q1 earnings and selling $4 billion of its loans to Castlelake in May. UPST stock is highly shorted with a short interest of 35.4% and 35.6% of its float on loan. At the same time, utilization rate remains high at 100% which may see UPST continue soaring if the Fed pauses rate hikes in June since short sellers might be forced to cover their positions. UPST Financials In its Q1 2023 report, UPST’s assets decreased 5% QoQ from $1.9 billion to $1.8 billion, and its cash and cash equivalents decreased 8% QoQ from $422 million to $387 million. UPST’s total liabilities decreased by 5% QoQ from $1.26 billion to $1.19 billion. Revenue also decreased 60% YoY from $313 million to $117 million. Operating costs decreased almost 15% from $275 million to $234 million, which contributed to the operating loss increase of 485% YoY from $34 million in operating income to $131 million in operating loss. As a result, UPST reported a net loss of $129 million – a 500% increase YoY. Technical Analysis UPST stock’s trend is bullish with the stock trading in an upwards channel. Looking at the indicators, the stock is trading above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which are bullish indications. Meanwhile, the RSI is neutral at 58 and the MACD is approaching a bearish crossover. As for the fundamentals, UPST stock could see a catalyst if the Fed decides to pause rate hikes at its June 14 meeting. In case of a pause, a short squeeze could occur to UPST stock due to the high short interest. UPST Forecast With the expectation that the Fed will pause rate hikes in June, UPST can expect to see higher demand for its loan assessment tool. UPST can also expect to see more financial institutions willing to buy loans held by it since the interest rate appears to be approaching its peak. If UPST can prove to the banking sector that its loan assessment model is better than other models like FICO’s, that could make UPST’s current PPS a bargain.
NASDAQ:UPST
by Penny_Stocks_Today
RSI DivergenceAn RSI Divergence occurs when price moves in the opposite direction of the RSI. The slope of the RSI does not match the slope of price. A Divergence can be bullish or bearish. Divergences always end up correcting it seems. This one is bearish. Some would use the peaks of RSI to spot a Bearish Divergence and the valleys to spot a Bullish Divergence. Possible W pattern that may have terminated at the 1.414 of the 1st leg up. This stock is not profitable as of yet, and I did not realize UPST had made such a run to the upside. Wacky market for sure. Short interest is over 30%. No recommendation. 52 Week Range 11.93 47.46 Day Range 28.75 32.50 EPS (FWD) -0.52 PE - Div Rate (TTM) - Yield (TTM) - Short Interest 34.99% Market Cap $2.57B Volume 8,877,624
NASDAQ:UPST
by lauralea
securing half my UPST for about 84% in gains 💙Like I mentioned in last post, this is one of the few positions I actually held long for a swing. We called the triple bottom bounce, trend breakout and even gave long trigger at 22 if you missed the dip entry 🔥 I will sell more of my shares either at 35 or if it goes to breakeven for some reason After 35 a rally to 50 is possible, but we need some very very good news for that to happen. boost and follow for more. thanks 💙
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by Vibranium_Capital
3
UPST - will it succeed in breaking up?UPST formed a double bottom base over the last 6 months with a horizontal neckline at 26 The odds of a successful breakup has increased this time owing to the overall market strength. A daily CLOSE above could be significant as it has not been able to so for the past 6 months. Other factors increasing optimism (of a successful break in the near future) is some strong volume accumulation since it's earnings beat on 10th May, gapping up strongly and only partially filled before propelling higher. Most likely this is a breakaway gap - signifying trend reversal (ie, from down to up) that will not be filled anytime soon. Also, it's 200 day moving average has already flattened out and the stock is now trading well above it. Bear in mind that stocks priced below $50 could have a lot more volatility on it's daily movement (both ways) and trailing stops need to cater for that. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by Juliac
Watchlist 2023-05-11 $SPY $MGNI $UPST $RIOT $TWLO AMEX:SPY Futures are seeing a slight uptick, bolstered by positive inflation data this morning. The QQQ index ended Wednesday at its highest level in over eight months, driven by large-cap tech stocks and falling Treasury yields. SPY is looking relatively flat, but is showing signs of rejecting the 413 level that we blasted to late is prior days session. For further confirmation of a trend day, watch for: USI:ADD pinned near +\-2000 USI:VOLD ratio over +/- 3 USI:TICK cumulating past 0 wicking to +/-900 NASDAQ:MGNI - Magnite Says Continue To Expect Adjusted EBITDA Margin Will Improve Meaningfully In Second Half Of 2023. RVOL is 1.2 atm but if it picks up there is plenty of room to run as it's breaking out of the multi month range from 9.50. Support 9.75 Resistance 11.50 Inflection 10.30 NASDAQ:UPST - soars 40% after upbeat earnings outlook PD. This has the highest short float in large cap stocks at 35%. This is finally a reason for shorts to get out of this positions. The longer is stays at these elevate levels the more shorts will panic into a squeeze. Day 2 continuation over the intraday resistance at 18.30. Support 18.50 Resistance 20.50 Inflection 19.50 NASDAQ:RIOT - Surpasses Q1 Earnings Estimates by 128% from a Quarterly loss to a profit of 0.04$ per share. I'd like some intraday levels to develop first as the isn't a clear BO level that isn't too close to PD high at 13.00. Let the levels for and hopefully buy a pullback after the opening range high is broken. NYSE:TWLO -keeping T on watch, could be a day 2 continuation to the upside as it couldn't get below the PM low yesterday. Let me know what you guys are looking at in the comments!
NASDAQ:UPST
by UnclePennybagss
$UPST Was Its Run An Overreaction?Most fintech companies have been suffering as of late due to the rise in interest rates over the last year, coupled with the failure of multiple banks during recent months. Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) is a fintech that recently unveiled its earnings report and rallied by as much as 40%. The rise in interest rates has affected fintech companies in different ways, but with a potential interest rate hike pause, the fintech space could have some breathing room moving forward. UPST Fundamentals After beating its Q1 2023 estimates, UPST stock price soared 40% pre-market. UPST reported $102.9 million in revenues beating its estimate of $99.7 million by 3.21% and an EPS of -0.47 beating its estimate of -0.82 by 43.11%. UPST has been affected by the looming recession in the US and the continuous rise in interest rates by the Fed throughout 2022, which has affected the number of people getting loans. As a result, UPST revenues declined from $310.1 million to $102.9 million due to the low demand for loans. However, the Fed might have hinted that it won’t raise interest rates any further, which indicates that the decline in UPST’s revenues could slow down moving forward, yet it still might not recover as the current interest rates are still high. Nevertheless, UPST could still face a near-term risk due to its dependency on Cross River Bank which recently entered a consent order with the FDIC to resolve charges that the bank engaged in unsafe practices related to its fair lending compliance. One of the main key provisions is that the bank is required to develop fair lending internal controls that must be reviewed periodically on a risk basis but not less than annually and adjusted appropriately. This consent order could be considered a warning to partners of Cross River Bank that might face scrutiny in the future. UPST could be a prime candidate for this, as Cross River Bank formed 51% of the loans processed through UPST’s platform while receiving fees from the bank that accounted for 45% of UPST’s total revenues in 2022. Furthermore, Cross River Bank is the biggest buyer of UPST’s loans and accounted for 17% of all loan funding in 2022 and 57% of all Upstart loans that are funded by banks and retained on its balance sheets. With this in mind, UPST stock could be at risk long term despite its recent rally. UPST Financials In its Q1 2023 report, UPST reported $1.8 billion in assets including $386.9 million in cash and $982.2 million in loans. UPST witnessed a decline in its assets from $1.9 billion including a decline in its cash from $422 million and a decline in its loans from $1 billion in Q4 2022. UPST’s liabilities shrank QoQ from $1.2 billion to $1.1 billion, however, its borrowings increased from $986.3 million to $1 billion. For the three months ended March 31, UPST’s revenues declined YoY from $102.9 million to $310 million and its operating income dropped from $34.8 million to a loss of $131.8 million. Finally, UPST’s net income also dropped from $32.6 million to a net loss of $129.2 million. Technical Analysis UPST stock trend was bearish as it was trading in a downward channel, however, it recently broke out of the channel forming a large gap. Looking at the indicators, UPST is currently trading above the 21 MA, 50 MA, and 200 MA which is a bullish sign. The RSI is overbought at 81 and the MACD is bullish but is curling bearishly. Fundamentally, UPST’s most recent catalyst was its Q1 earnings. UPST doesn’t have any upcoming catalyst, however, the Cross River Bank consent order might affect UPST in the future if Cross River Bank goes under. Additionally, The Feds possibly no longer increasing interest rates while potentially cutting them in the future could bode well for the company in the future. UPST stock price is expected to drop anticipating the RSI to cool down, while also filling the gap it recently formed. A possible entry point would be at the current price as the stock is trading near the $19.26 resistance taking profits along the way on testing the $17.64 support, the $15.68 support, and the $14.06 support. UPST Forecast Despite UPST’s stock soaring, the company may witness a near-term risk due to the consent order on Cross River Bank which is UPST’s biggest loan provider forming more than half the loans processed through the company’s platform. For this reason, UPST may crumble moving forward.
NASDAQ:UPSTShort
by Penny_Stocks_Today