UPST trade ideas
UPST headed for $21Forming H&S UPST is heading towards $21. Place your bets accordingly.
GL Trading.
previous price targets smashed! congrats to the shorts here in my last analysis when we were at 74 I gave short term bearish targets are 70.41-65.29-60.17, long term targets of 43.56-13.48.. its safe to say almost all our targets were smashed! congrats to UPST shorts :)
now we are at the last line of support at 22-23 area... if it cannot hold my last target of 13 should hit. but a bounce here can send it on a much needed bull rally! lets see what happens :)
Good entry pointWow, I can't believe its at this price.
When I first saw UPST the price I saw was $45 and it went on a massive run.
Its a great entry price at $33
Upstart | UPST | Gap-Fill BelowUpstart Holdings ( NASDAQ:UPST ) is likely to *eventually* fill the gap below (between $62.26 and $75.15) and may go for $45 (or lower). Insiders have dumped almost $1.8 billion shares since it entered the market. Is now a good time to enter? That's a hard call. There is a small gap just above the current price that may want to be filled and it could go for resistance again. However, this will likely follow the market moves. If plays start skyrocketing, it'll likely go with the flow. But, if the indexes tank further, I expect this to be right behind.
NASDAQ:UPST has a 72 million float with a 14% short interest (as of March 15, 2022), so careful of a squeeze down the road if the indexes reverse. Otherwise, in the longer-run, I anticipate the gap below to be filled at a minimum.
Technical Analysis for Risk AnalysisTechnical Analysis should be used for Risk Analysis, not just for deciding if and when to buy whatever it is you want to trade, whether it's stocks, crypto, forex, indexes, ETFs, REITs, mutual funds, etc.
When you know the technical patterns that point to higher risk, aka sellers gaining traction, you can get out of long positions before the retail crowd and its small fund managers react late to earnings reports.
It is NEVER the largest institutions, who we call the Dark Pools, who are selling on earnings announcements. It is ALWAYS the less informed who buy or sell on big news days.
This is what we at TechniTrader call "Relational Technical Analysis"--the application of what we know about the market participant groups to discern who is doing what in the technical patterns of a chart.
For example: UPST was a struggling IPO anyway. The typical IPO top and drop occurred in October-November. 99% of new IPOs do this. Learn to sell at the peak of a speculative new IPO. That means you must learn what speculation looks like in the charts and how to recognize the top developing so you can get out before the drop.
But today's lesson is about the specific set of negative technical patterns developing ahead of Upstart's earnings report yesterday after the market close:
1. A trading range was developing lower highs and lower lows.
2. Compression of price at the low end of the range.
3. Declining Accumulation/Distribution over the sideways action of the trading range.
These are what we at TechniTrader call the "footprints" of controlled rotation out of the stock ahead of the earnings press release date.
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UPST further downside?UPST is one of my favourite comapnies, with a unique business model and expertise. However, it is also a great example of a great busines not being a great investment all of the time. Based on simple work on the Daily timeframe, it appears the stock has a bit more to go on the downside.
UPST has held the traendline going back to IPO fairly well, and now seems to have broken, tested, and confirmed this break. This opens up various target-74, 50, and theoretically 22 as well though that would appear to be unlikely.
Update to my recent ideaI posted a bullish UPST view recently, but I want to add some important observations that should be noted for anyone playing this tomorrow:
-I can't pretend that unfilled gap from last April-May around 61 doesn't post a major risk here. However, take a look back at the price action last May earnings and you'll notice a common theme, namely, pre-earnings the price came off a bullish anti-cypher harmonic and tested that lower 80 level at the top of the gap for support going onto the report (not shown in chart but take a look for yourself)... due to the high short interest at the time and the earnings beat it absolutely took off to the upside post-ER. Fortunately for UPST bulls currently, heavily shorted and Friday it did the same thing where it tested that upper gap and held so I believe if they impress with this report it will not need to fill that gap (just yet). However, I will be hedging accordingly. The May 13 options are priced for a move to 61-107 (wow)... everyone's thinking it, I'm just saying it THIS REPORT NEEDS TO BE $$$$
- Support to the bullish view can be seen clearly in this 2 hour interval view with that stochastic RSI and the RSI primed for liftoff; furthermore, double completed bullish harmonics coming into this with the same anti-cypher pattern in the most recent harmonic
- If this pops it needs to keep in the upper section of Gann fan for continuation - it needs to keep up with time
- Please refer to the RSI at the 1D level (i.e. see my last post or refer to it on your own chart) - I did a full statistical eval. on the performance over the full history of UPST using RSI as a sole trade signal and it was very impressive. 88% reliability (measured this by the percentage of successful trades, e.g. if RSI purple crossed above yellow and upside move materialized that = successful trade, and vice versa for bearish crosses). 54% capture rate (this is actually extremely rare for trading with a sole indicator, but the idea is after a signal how much of the move on average did the signal capture, e.g. from open long to close long). Average upside move after bullish crosses was +65%... this thing can swing!
Expectations
Bullish case: gap to low 100s and if we see continuation it can run to 114, 120s, 150s, low 170s.. the extent of this continuation (i.e. which of those levels will actually be realized) will depend on market environment and/or if the short interest data are up to date (I'm seeing 28.5% short float, 2 days to cover so this can happen fast if it does move to mid 100s I wouldn't be surprised but I don't think it will be sustained unless whole market squeezes, 38% recent short increase). After bullish run ends (possibly low 170s but I'll be taking profits at 120-150 tbh) I would not be surprised if this whipsaws and fills that gap down to 61.
Bearish case: on a miss this could get hit down to gap fill and, hate to say it, but that downward momentum could send it on continuation down to around 35.. I didn't include elliot wave in this but UPST is, after all, trying to complete a rather funky corrective cycle before beginning next bullish impulse cycle. If someone has that corrective count mapped out I would be very interested in seeing it because I couldn't quite pin it.
Good luck to all, not financial advice but expect some very interesting and volatile price action in the weeks to come.
Start her up...This has the setup to really go, point target = 155 by May 20 (the yellow highlighted date that is covered up (oops) is 5/20).
- target range is 130s to 160s by May 11 - early June, depending on if the price can keep up with time!
- initial/moderate target is 114, which is a statistical adj. target, I'll likely play calls with this as goal target by May 20 (and if I get more, i.e. 130-160, that's great)
- if it falls out of fan off the recent low I'd expect a test of around 64 and would re-eval from there. Need to see how it reacts with market post-FOMC, plenty of upside to be patient here.
Some aspects to note on the side/apart from chart:
- Very heavily shorted this could easily squeeze to target but they need to deliver on this upcoming report
- Irregularly bullish options activity spotted recently with up to $900K sweeps at strikes ranging from 90.00-150.00
Please provide any feedback, especially related to Gann (this is my first Gann idea so any criticism welcomed...
Best,
Bard's Apprentice
support is breaking, not a great sign for longs here UPST getting dangerous for longs here, many rejections from trend resistance and breaking important support zones.
long term it can dump to 43.56-13.48.. but if we break back above trend resistance we go bullish again. If this happens targets are 143.14-164.57
UPST Key Level to WatchUPST currently sitting at support around $74 ~ 75 and if it breaks this level we could see stock trading around $50.
UPST - double from here in just 1 month ?Rotation from Value to Growth about to start. Nobobdy knows the size of it, but due to extreme pessimism, it could charge hard as FOMO kicks in. Need to recapture 100+ to confirm.
make or break area! will support hold? 🤖UPST sitting at extreme support zone, if it breaks we will see a lot more downside! If we hold and bounce here my targets are 118.80-155.33
a nice pennant on the dailyi am looking for a swing trade over the next 20 days playin some options follow for more
UPST - triangle breakdownContinues to act weak and now breaking below triangle support...likely tests 86 in coming days if loses 101.
Long position short termNASDAQ:UPST Upstart is an AI lending platform that partners with banks and credit unions to provide consumer loans
look for gap fill at the $64 mark if it drops under $100
$UPST1hr$UPST1hr currently sitting on support of this triangle. This has a very good risk to reward ratio if were to go long and just by targeting previous high. The full measured move has greater reward
UPST to $140it's holding strong support through the trendline and tested multiple times and could be ready for a bull run if the market remains bullish.
Unbiased UPST playLooks like we are at a crossroad here for day traders on UPST, the recent is an uptrend but overall can play either direction
UPST - Weakness is worrying
Weakness relative to the strong rally in other growth names should raise some alarms for investors.
[*} showing signs of a developing H&S pattern...right shoulder in progress.
I'd watch the 3 day candle closing on April 01. If it doesn't close above 118, it'd indicate 9EMA rejection and further downside to follow.
I am long at 106, with B/E stop loss. below, 94 is possible. Not saying it will happen, but keeping mind open to anything to come.
