UPWK trade ideas
ST Bear, LT BullNo surprise in the headline here. UPWK , just like FVRR , has had one hell of a run. COVID has shown us that freelance work is cheap and effective, and that this is the future as digitization and globalization improve. Congratulations to everyone who has been in either of these stocks since the beginning.
PRO: Both UPWK and FVRR have 'modest' market caps at 5.5 and 7.8 billion... which is significantly higher than a year ago. These are but a fraction of the potential freelance industry (IMO) and will return to these levels and higher in the LT .
CON: UPWK has the safer business strategy IMO, with their focus serving business contracts. Comparably, FVRR serves mostly consumer level contracts. They are each starting to get into each others' spaces. I don't love the business model of either: mostly, they each take a cut of the job, but nothing is stopping someone from paying a freelancer directly and cutting out these companies as the middlemen. I trust they'll figure it out eventually.
WHERE TO BUY:
- I'm waiting for weekly (if not monthly) consolidation, the nearest points to look for a bounce being at roughly $33 and $30 (representing 25% and 31% downside respectively). This would be my first look at buying.
- After the above, UPWK IPO'd at $23/share. I think this is a reasonable scouting point for a LT entry, particularly considering revenue has gone from $153 to $373 since then (FY 2018 to 2020), 2.4x. If we're valuing this unprofitable growth stock based on future value and revenue growth, then this value would be a huge discount! The implied stock price based on this revenue multiple would be $56/share (2.4*$23), slightly below where we topped out.
- Weekly RSI is below 70 for the first time since October. Let's wait for <40.
- Weekly MACD is screaming "LOOK OUT BELOW". Let's wait for a sign that weekly consolidation is losing momentum.
$UPWK CHART
Hammer long shadow
Holding 65 EMA but under 50 DMA
Holding 50% Fib retracement
Stoch oversold
RS Rating 98
FUNDAMENTALS
EPS Rating 80
Group RS 68
SMR Rating C
Acc/Dis Rating 92
Timeliness Rating B
Sponsorship rating B
EPS last Qtr +100% / Sales +32%
Funds significantly increasing Sep-20 (276) > Dec-20 (329) ( 2 high quality)
Mgmt owns 25%
BUY $UPWK - 03.01.2021Stockonomy Weekly Pick 03.01.2021
UPWK has seen some volume kick in recently following earnings last week.
Price appears to have since consolidated at key levels signaling a hopeful trade entry.
"Upwork Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates an online talent marketplace that enables businesses to find and work with various independent professionals and agencies in the United States, India, the Philippines, and internationally. The company's platform provides access to talent with various skills across a range of categories, including sales and marketing, customer service, data science and analytics, design and creative, web, mobile, and software development. Its platform also enables clients to streamline workflows, such as talent sourcing, outreach, and contracting. The company's platform offers access to various functionalities for remote engagements with freelancers comprising communication and collaboration, time tracking, invoicing, and payment. Its marketplace offerings include Upwork Basic, Upwork Plus, Upwork Business, Upwork Enterprise, and Upwork Payroll, as well as managed and internet escrow agency services. The company was formerly known as Elance-oDesk, Inc. and changed its name to Upwork Inc. in May 2015. Upwork Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California." (Yahoo Finance)
Upwork to $65 before March 8Upwork new price target: $ 65
When: Before March 8
Growth: 20.3 %
Buy: YES
If this is a real bottom, expect Upwork to continue up..
Trade at your own risks
$UPWKEntry price : 40.64
Fundamentals :
- Sector: Business Services
- EPS % Chg (Last Qtr): 24%
- EPS % Chg (Previous Qtr): -373%
- 3 Year EPS Growth Rate: 0%
- EPS Est % Chg (Current Yr): 0%
- Sales % Chg (Last Qtr): 24%
- Sales % Chg (Previous Qtr): 19%
- 3-Year Sales Growth Rate: 21%
- Annual Pre -Tax Margin: 2.0%
UPWK potential Elliot waves for uptrendGreen Elliot wave trendline is fast moving
Yellow Elliot wave trendline is slow moving, consolidation
Red Elliot wave trendline is downtrend
Green circle areas indicate safer buy levels
Yellow circles indicate caution
Red circles are short/take profit area
Light Blue circle area should expect a large move either way depending on current trend
UPWK potential Elliot waves for uptrendGreen Elliot wave trendline is fast moving
Yellow Elliot wave trendline is slow moving, consolidation
Red Elliot wave trendline is downtrend
Green circle areas indicate safer buy levels
Yellow circles indicate caution
Red circles are short/take profit area
Light Blue circle area should expect a large move either way depending on current trend
$UPWK - call optionsIf its hold $39.65 after the open settles (30-60 min after open)
I think this could run up to the $47 area
March 19 call option
$37.50 strike could serve up well over 50% returns
UPWK Breakout PlayUPWK gap up today with nice volume and stay above the resistance 40.61.
MM (Measure Move) for this breakout play is 55.46 price target and with stop loss is 36.77.
PnL ratio: 3.87%, about upside 36% and downside 9%.
great trend channel here for UPWK!getting close to a big trendline resistance and rsi is saying its overbought, but remember if the trendline breaks we can see a parbolic breakout. for now my analysis is look for a big rejection around 46, sell everything there and look for a dip entry around 30 in the future. goodluck ! feel free to leave questions and ill get back to you!
$UPWK Last Bull Run before Bearish Divergence
$UPWK has been climbing steadily but the RSI and MACD are showing a Bearish Divergence Set Up
Even If the stock is a good value play - there is always room for capturing the volatility for profit
Long | UPWKNASDAQ:UPWK
Possible Scenario: LONG
Evidence: Price Action
This is my idea and could be wrong100%
UPWORK is a Great SHORT OpportunityNASDAQ:UPWK
UPWORK was a major benefactor from the lockdowns earlier in the year, beating their most recent earnings by +59%. Although I do like the business structure of UPWORK and thing long-term this company will scale immensely, I also think that this most recent run was driven by the euphoric earnings beat.
From a technical standpoint, the 200 Day SMA is all the way down at $15.50 and has gone untested for quite sometime, meaning a mean reversion may be due. We also broke out above that red rising trend line and never retested it to become proper support.
My downside target is $22.50 which would put us right at the retest of the rising red trend trend line (almost like its really important). Although my downside target is $22.50, the risk of $15.50 isn't too farfetched to consider a true possibility.
Good luck and be safe.
- PennyBag
$UPWK shortSolid short here imo
Failed breakout of wedge, failed retake of the channel, long way to go to strong level
UPWK - December 27, 2020UPWK - operates an online talent marketplace that enables businesses to work with various freelancers to serve their needs. They are a much cheaper option than FVRR on a forward EV/Revenue basis with a 10.79x multiple, compared against FVRRs 29.42x multiple. Upwork reported Q3 revenues of $96.95M, which beat analyst consensus by $6.3M. Outlook for Q4 was raised to $96-98M in revenue. Upwork has been a winner from COVID as more businesses look to streamline costs through virtual work. This has increased the potential for companies such as FVRR and UPWK to leverage the online adoption and work from home benefits. UPWK is a great long term dip buy in the $36-32 range.
Dip in UPWKUsing Fibonacci Lines and 5 wave elliott wave analysis and looking at the uptrend as seen in the parallel channel, i think prices will be moving down to the 35.9-36.00 area first before continuing up.
Any break below 35.9-36.00 and we might see prices moving to lower supports.
Break through settupAgain, a great break through setup spotted. Only chart pattern. No company research done this time, but will be done after the entry. Update follows as soon as possible.
That’s my opinion and should be treated like it. No trade advice!
