WKHS trade ideas
$WKHS - followed my speculation dotted lines i drew a few days ago
so far we are in that pennant.
Could break up here in the next day or so
Workhorse Has 4 possible outcomes between now and March 31st This is not Technical Analysis. I have posted TA's on $WKHS in the past but the next moves on this are not determined by fundamentals but by wether or not they are chosen for a $6.3 to 20 billion dollar contract. No lines or triangles can predict the outcome of the USPS decision.
WKHS is one of three (really two) remaining finalists in a contract to replace some or all of the fleet of 165,000 US Postal Service mail delivery vehicles across the country.
The only other real finalist is Oskosh who is teaming up with Ford. These guys submitted an internal combustion engine fossil fuels based vehicle for this contract, and with Biden's new Zero-Emission initiative it is highly unlikely they are selected, although they do have an electric van (not the same as the one they submitted in the contract) on the way for 2022.
Here are the four scenarios that can play out with somewhat estimated odds.
Scenario One: 25% or 1/4 chance: WKHS earns the entire contract. Someone else did the math of the fair stock price after adjusting for the additional billions of dollars WKHS would have from winning the contract and they came out with $172 per share right after the contract is announced. I set the range from $105 to around $199 as the upper maximum you can see in March.
Scenario Two: 40% or 2/5 chance: The contract is split up between Oskosh and WorkHorse. This is the most likely of all scenarios. In the initial documentation before Biden's 100% green energy plans, the USPS wanted 75% electric 25% gas vehicles so it is possible workhorse gets 75% and Oskosh gets 25%. Others on the internet claim that it will be all or nothing but if you check the actual agreement it gives room for a split which the government does all the time. Even with only 10% of the contract awarded to WKHS you can expect to see the stock break past $60 the very next day.
Scenario Three: 15% chance: Oskosh is an awesome company, they have a very positive relationship with the government selling us Humvees for the military. They are respected and reliable, however they submitted a fossil fuel powered prototype and due to contract law can't just resubmit something else at the last minute. Especially with Biden wanting to look like he can get shit done AND after having made a statement about electrifying the US Fleet it looks insanely unlikely that OSK gets the entire bid, but I will still give them a 15% chance because the CEO's are fairly confident in their company winning it. If this happens, the only support that won't get destroyed the very next day is at the $16 level.
Scenario Four: 20% chance: They cant come to a decision and push it back until next quarter. This has happened already two times. They were first supposed to decide this summer, but they pushed it back to December. In December they failed again and pushed it back to latest March 31st. I am hoping that third time is the charm. Keep in mind this is a $6Billion dollar contract, and in the scheme of things, it costs $1 billion or 1/6 of the entire contract just to maintain the current decrepit vehicles. If this happens, the pullback to about $20 is super likely.
I hope you enjoyed this analysis. Yes, the %'s I made up are somewhat arbitrary - don't ask me for sources.
Workhorse February outlook..!I made the call to buy workhorse on 17,21,23 with midterm target price 40-42 and longterm target of 72-110.
Workhorse tends to moves fast and then make correction slowly.
This analysis will be obsolete if workhorse close above 40.
I always try to present the charts in a simple comprehensive format to prevent any confusion.
This is just my technical view, neither a fundamental comment,nor a recommendation to trade..!
Please review my track record and calculate the odds for yourself..!
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This is my first chart, it’s on WKHSAny feedback would be appreciated, just did some trend lines and price lines, not sure if I’m going back in time too much though, if anybody has there own charts on WKHS, I’d love to see how you went about, I’m just beginning my journey in tech analysis
WKHS has Momentum....Fear of USPS contract going to WKHS will have shorts covering. More folks will pile into WKHS because of Bidens comments/EOs. Near target 55. Expect high 60s low 70s in Q2.
WKHS potential continuationWKHS has had a good run and is now consolidating. I will be looking for a continuation over the recent highs.
All time highs. WKHS looks like it passed previous highs. We are now at all time highs. Great news with the speech from Biden which was the cause of this move up. Hopefully the USPS contract gets announced soon.
#WKHS Update -WKHS after an amzing breakout of a beatiful triangle i see 5 waves up for a impulsive wave 3.
- Its looking like a deep wave 4 retracement but it aligns for a the higher degree wave looking really good!
- I do expect a sideways movement before it does go to wave 4 but breaking the low will make this count be a 1,2 which means wave 3 will be more impulsive hopefully not but if it does don't miss it .
WKHS: Bullish PennantBullish Pennant
Pros:
Descending volume during formation
PPS above 50MA and 200MA
RS above 0, and ascending
ATR Ascending
R/R ratio above 7
200MA ascending
250RSI below 50
If confirmed:
PT = 50.26$
WKHS Bullish PennantWith the high probability that WKHS will get the government contract for EV's, it is likely we will re-test the $40 range soon and likely break it as wsb people get Fear of Missing Out. This pennant should break tomorrow actually (1/29) and we can maybe see a new high.
My only concern is that some people don't understand that when insiders sell, they have to let the SEC know months in advance, so with the CEO paying himself on the 26th, some people who are uneducated see that as a sign the contract won't go through. I will be taking advantage of these people buying up their shares.
There is probably a 65% chance WKHS earns some or all of the contract in which case the holding will all be worth it, the only competitors are a gas engine, and a hybrid engine made by a Turkish company. Although Biden does not have direct control of the post office, it is quite unlikely they side with the gas or hybrid option as the goal is an American made EV - not a Turkish made Hybrid or an American Gas Engine.
People also worry about the production speed this company has... if they get six billion dollars that will not be a problem whatsoever.
I think everyone knows this is one of the best opportunities of 2020.
Please feel free to comment your thoughts.
Next stepWe will see consolidation and a formation of a bull flag before the next leg up. We have already tested the break out line area today and may retest it one more time before continuation. If you followed my last post you can see that we broke out of the triangle and now we are looking for continuation. Please like and follow for more wkhs updates.
weekly breakthrough and new highAs previous long weekly period, there were 5 weeks to finish the circle, this week is the first week as the very beginning, so rest four weeks seems to lead WKHS 100-200% finally which comparing current price, maximum after these five week it will meet $120, then several weeks correction, probably it will touch $200 in 2021Q3
Workhorse Rise on Biden EV PlanWorkhorse Rise on Biden EV Plan
WKHS rose on Tuesday, after President Joe Biden said in a speech that the U.S. government would be purchasing EVs.
"The federal government also owns an enormous fleet of vehicles, which we're going to replace with clean electric vehicles made right here in America, by American workers," Biden said.
Expect a breakout soonInverse head and shoulders within a symmetrical triangle. Breakout should happen within the next few weeks. EV sector is heating up again and Cathie Wood of ARK invest has been buying this stock heavily.
