Nice Short Pattern, Conditions Also Very Bad Risk is a black swan political event (which isn't really a black swan with this stock due its long history of sudden news releases that send the share price flying). It's also never a good idea to short in a bull market. 21% of outstanding USD was printed in 2020, and that was as of November, according to Katusa Research.
"21% of US Dollars were printed in 2020 (so far), or $4.5 Trillion. This is more than the amount of money created in the previous 5 years, yet only 5% of it is new cash in circulation."
Plus it's EV...
It's a great pattern. The conditions also seem perfect, but still, a unique risk of a sudden spike exists..
WKHS trade ideas
WKHS$WKHS- ARK is buying this dip because WKHS will likely contest the USPS contract decision, but also because it is solid company that is way oversold. I see this creeping back up in the upcoming weeks. Per ARK e-mail this past weekend: “ Workhorse (WKHS), a technology company that designs, manufactures, builds, and sells battery-electric vehicles and aircraft in the United States, traded down 47% on Tuesday and then up 24% on Thursday. The sharp decline was in response to its loss of the U.S. Postal Service's (USPS) next generation delivery vehicle contract to Oshkosh. WKHS then appreciated on news that a Democrat in the House of Representatives is attempting to overrule the contract award to Oshkosh. ARK finds it odd that the USPS is not committing to a fully electric platform which, according to our research, will dominate truck production and sales in the next ten years. ”
Nice take on WKHS from TipRanks today..Workhorse: Back to the Drawing Board, Tipranks
"For now though, investors should just watch the stock from the sidelines as a listed market valuation of $2 billion is very rich for a company missing 2020 targets and losing out on a major contract. As the company hits the drawing board and comes out with a new game plan, investors can reconsider the stock likely at lower levels."
Bearish flag on WKHS heading below $10NASDAQ:WKHS Workhorse has had some quite bad news in the last couple of days, including the loss of a $6 billion vehicle contract, offered by UPS to one of WKHS competitors. What could have been a massive push to the company's vehicle orders is now gone. Well almost, because Workhorse management want to meet with UPS to discuss the matter. Though I would be very surprised that changes anything to the outcome of the contract awarding.
From TA perspective, buying a stock that has lost half of its value within a few days is tempting, but not always a good idea. I see it forming a bearish flag before continuing the dip, which could lead the stock below $10. The RSI is also showing a big weakness.
BUT, don't get me wrong, I don't recommend to short the stock as the risk-reward ratio is not great, but I prefer waiting for the bottom to buy, then ride the stock back up.
Workhorse earnings surpriseQuite possibly the ugliest earnings to earnings chart I've seen. Is this opportunity or a dead end? Only time will tell. Workhorse Group (WKHS) reported 4th Quarter December 2020 earnings of $0.25 per share on revenue of $0.7 million. The consensus estimate was a loss of $0.12 per share on revenue of $1.3 million. (Reuters) - Workhorse Group Inc will meet with U.S. Postal Service on Wednesday to get more information on a multibillion-dollar contract that the electric-vehicle maker lost to Oshkosh Defense for making postal delivery vehicles. “We have requested pursuant to the publicly provided bid rules -- bid process rules, additional information from the U.S. postal service and have scheduled a face-to-face meeting with postal service on March 3,” Workhorse Chief Executive Officer Duane Hughes said on a conference call with analysts on Monday. Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Small incremental steps work : If you double a penny a day for a month it = $5,368,709. Good luck and happy trading friends...
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$WKHS a Trade Idea!The shares of $WKHS sank 52% in two days this week after the USPS said Oshkosh Corp., not Workhorse, would get a contract to build new vehicles for mail carriers. They rebounded 25% on Thursday after a congressman said he was trying to reverse the decision, only to resume the drop on Friday. The stock lost 51% of its value this week.
Fundamental analysis:
This might create great opportunity for investors to BUY dip.
However; we should be very careful .
Technical Analysis:
$15 per share acting as strong support for $WKHS.
The price tested $15 area 3 times and got rejected as it was marked on the graph.
Here we can risk 4-5%, But if the upward tred starts moving the reward will be bigger.
WKHS Major overreaction to the loss of the UPS contract. This is still a young EV company and has shown that it will continue to find a place in the market
We have a couple of scenarios here.
1. They beat on earnings and they quickly get back to trading in a -+$20 zone
2. The tank earnings and you could see a break of support (all the way to $10 IMO)
3. Earnings has no effect and they slowly consolidate until the next major catalyst
Either way, there are some opportunities here for WKHS, I sure the UPS contract won't be the only gov contract we'll see go to various American EV companies.
(Not financial advice do your own DD)
Bullish WKHS theoryToday is my first day analyzing charts. I was looking through my watchlist and saw that WORKHORSE climbed significantly in after hours trading.
Upon further examination I saw, what appears to be, a consistent uptrend in the charts which began post earnings in 2020.
I was still curious as to why the sudden interest after hours. I observed that there is an earnings coming out at the end of the month, or there about. I observed the life span of the stock and noted that the RSI consistently climbed to above fair value post earnings. This tells me that, more often than not, the earnings have been strong. I also located an article stating that there is a significant possibility that WKHS will be given a contract to replace the USPS fleet. Although this contract is not solidified it does offer a short term “hype” value to the stock.
DAY TRADING VALUE:
I would label this stock as a “Come back King” as it has multiple points breaching the top RSI FV line and not falling below the lower RSI line. PLEASE NOTE THIS IS BASED ON THE LIFETIME CHART NOT THE DAILY DATA.
It is currently at the lower end indicating a possible oversold status on the daily chart (RSI 38.38 as of 20:00 hours on 2/19/2021) which could indicate a good buy in point.
5 day chart shows a solid down trend with value falling from 37.77 high on 2/12 to a current value of 33.05 as of today’s date (2/21/2021).
With earnings coming 3/1/2021, this stock may yield some good volatility for day trading.
LONG PLAY VALUE:
Given all of the evidence, I would conclude that this is a long term play. The value of this long term will definitely be based on the information presented in earnings AND the companies ability to win the contract with USPS.
(please let me know how I did with my first chart analysis!)
Thank you
Daniel