The NFP report came in HOT, much higher than expected:
Actual: 228K
Forecast: 135K | Previous (Revised Upwards): 117K
However, the unemployment rate also ticked higher to 4.2% vs. the forecast of 4.1%.
Key Levels to Watch,
For GU: 1.2950 support, 1.3050 resistance For GJ: 190.00 psychological level
> Impact on GBP/USD (GU)
🔹 Initial Reaction: Strong NFP = USD Bullish > GBP/USD drops 🔹 BUT Unemployment Rate Higher, this could limit USD strength if markets think the Fed will still cut rates later. 🔹 GU Bias: Short-term bearish, but watch Fed commentary & risk sentiment.
> Impact on GBP/JPY (GJ)
🔹 Stronger USD lifts USD/JPY > Pulls GBP/JPY up 🔹 Risk sentiment , If markets focus on strong NFP, GJ can rally. If they focus on higher unemployment (slower economy), JPY could strengthen & push GJ lower.
So, GBPUSD played out exactly as expected, massive manipulation before the real move. We had four weeks of consolidation, price pushed aggressively to the upside, hitting 1.32, which in hindsight was likely one of the biggest liquidity grabs we've seen in a while. Smart money took price up, cleaned out weak shorts, then flipped and started the real move down. $ hitting an all time low was very huge fundamental news !
Trump’s Tariffs Shook the Market > New 10% base tariffs on all imports, with higher duties for EU, China, and even UK exports (25% on cars, steel, and aluminum). This initially weakened the USD and gave GBP/USD a strong push up.
Dollar Weakness Triggered Risk On Sentiment > The market dumped dollars aggressively, sending GBP/USD to a six-month high at 1.32.
Stock Market Crash Added Fuel > The S&P 500 tanked nearly 5%, wiping out 2.5 trillion dollars in market value—the worst single-day drop since 2020. Panic across markets exaggerated price swings.
The Reversal Kicked In – After that liquidity grab, GBP/USD faced strong rejection from 1.3200. The sell-off started, breaking structure to the downside.
Retail traders Literally don't see all this due to pure ignorance. This insight impacts XAUUSDGBPJPYDXYBXY almost every asset and cross market assets.
What can we expect on GBPUSD, A Potential Drop to 1.2550, The next major downside target could be the weekly fair value gap (FVG) around 1.2550, aligning with where liquidity rests, Watch Key Level at 1.2950 is critical support. If it breaks, downside momentum accelerates fast.
That entire move up to 1.32 was a setup. The real direction is now unfolding.
Above IDEA posted on Feb 17th with LONG bias, at the time we posted we were in a LONG SWING with +235 PIPS, now capitalising +600 PIPS , it was all right in front of your Sight! But ignored. > Just do a play on the IDEA to see the price action.
Now, we are heading to a Supply Zone, what next ? Wait for the next IDEA.
Lessons to Learn! Being adamant / sarcastic / is't gonna us, being humble / watching price and reaction at levels can make your trading better. S&D alone cannot make you a better trader, there are many more things come into the frame. Even if you post your A+ Trading setup / rules, Humans will say they are BS and keep failing, that's how emotions are wired due to arrogance and QUIT at a point when market Slams hard on the face.
ITC/ SMC / MMT / Wyckoff / BUY/SELL indicators and what not! So much garbage around, make a simple system or pick 1 model and master it than trying to catch every unicorn you see around this space. It takes time and effort without giving up. This can help you reduce decades of learning curve.
GBPJPY guys don't let 2 phoney candles get you into sells !! remember react to the market. dont just enter trades because of deceiving movement!! I am still holding my trade with proper risk management lets boost this buy JPYXBXY
GBPUSD Observed +350 PIPS with a Mixed Market Sentiment! SWING is still ON!
What's the next 1 Hour bringing us ?
The Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) report is a significant economic indicator for the GBP (British Pound).
Here’s how it can impact GBP/USD:
1️⃣ Market Expectations vs. Actual Data
> If the actual retail sales figure is higher than the forecast (0.3%), it suggests strong consumer spending, which is bullish for GBP and can lead to GBP/USD rising.
A better-than-expected release can lead to GBP/USD buying pressure, pushing it higher.
> If the actual figure is lower than expected or negative, it signals weak consumer spending, which is bearish for GBP and can cause GBP/USD to fall.
A worse-than-expected release can lead to GBP/USD selling pressure, pushing it lower.
Thought time!
- GBP/USD is currently in an uptrend, but the UK Retail Sales data will dictate the next move. - A stronger-than-expected retail sales figure → bullish continuation. - A weaker-than-expected figure → potential reversal. - Key levels to watch: Resistance at 1.2680–1.2700, support at 1.2620–1.2600
GBPUSDGBPJPYEURUSDBXY When you say its a SELL / BUY, as a trader you say it confidently! That's what differentiates you in the Crowd!
Not by thinking if its a Short?, thinking takes time and good opportunities fade away with time. Be consistent (when you don't have it), quick (when its presented) & humble (when you have it).
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