XDN trade ideas
DXY and JXY short termDXY Short term contraction with flat intermediate term momentum and a slight shift in short term momentum. Blue momentum shift up while in the contraction pattern presents a high probability scenario of a short term move up. A break out of contraction can give us a nice expansion move..but which way?
JXY Bearish momunetum off a 123 reversal 1st cycle high after a momentum shift. Short term: a bearish move is a high probabilty scenario. Even being at a cycle low. Contraction here or slighty higher PA and a reset of the cycle indie would be ideal. Short term momentum on the next higher TF (3:1 ratio) holds the clues. And short term momntum on the 60 chart is giving us a high probability of short term bearish PA.
JXY Bullish and Bearish PotentialWhy trading and wave analysis are two different things. Wave analysis by itself is not a trading
methodology. It is simply an analysis of what could happen. In school we were taught that every
analyst has two counts: A bullish and a bearish, or a primary and a secondary count. And when an
analyst becoms a trader it offers tradeable patterns which can be exploited. The chart is a result
of this. Red is the primary count and green the secondary count. The tradeable pattern for the primary
count is the red ABCDE triangle. The entry would be a close below (D) red dotted line. The Wavy Tunnel
Exit would be a close above the filter or the 12 EMA (green). The entry long for the secondary
count would be a close above the ABC correction pattern (B) green dotted line. The exit would be the same
A close below the 12 EMA. This of course is if the patterns remain simple and do not morph into
more complex correction patterns. ( Why ever trade starts with a stop loss or point where we are wrong in our
analysis. This is where wave therory plays the best rule. Because it has very specific rules for
wave structure. : wave 2 can trade as low or high as wave one but not beyond it. wave 4 cannot
close into wave 1. wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave in a five wave structure. A corrction happns
within parallel lines.
And it offers us some guidlines for points of possible corrections. Such as: .681 is the most common wave 2 correction.
.382 is the most common wave 4 correction. Wave C of an ABC correction most commonly trades within
the previous wave 4. etc)
So where does this leave us as a trader. Develop specific trading rules. With entry, exit points
both profitable and not. Stick to these rules. Stick to these specific rules for a given number of trades
(ON A DEMO ACCOUNT I used 50 trades) to see if you have a trade plan that offers a win rate ratio that is acceptable
for you. And if you use wave analysis. Trade The Pattern Not The Count...Jeffery Kennedy
Bearish Crab Pattern(possible)From a technical standpoint this pattern can be considered a bearish crab but not a perfect one. Specifically the B point is not a precise 61.8 retracement.
From a fundamental standpoint there is a "risk on" attitude with eur(french elections) and aud(CPI - Friday) and so the JPY is being sold.
Can you infer or confirm my assumptions?
This WeeK: Uncertainty => Yen Bullishness $JPY $JXYHey traders, I expect this currency to continue north. There's too much uncertainty with Trump's follow-through on policies, North Korean nuclear testing, Syria and ISIS. I like this one long. We also have some technical lining up as shown on the chart.