JXY - bullish, then retest lowsIt's no wonder why JXY bounced at $67, the .618 fib is a powerful level - look like an Elliott A-B-C ZigZag. Expect continued bullishness toward $75.5
XDN trade ideas
yen index precisely jumped at trend line touchI wonder how market randomness can be explained with such precision! the chart shows how yen index precisely jumped at trend line touch. This surged the pair USDJPY for more than 600 pips in two hours!
The bank of Japan declined to comment bout any intervention!
MACRO-ECONOMIC ARBITRAGE- Buy the Yen short the dollarBoth the Nikkei and the S&P have moved in the same direction along w the yen and the dollar. However recently the Dollar has appreciated dramatically while the Yen has depreciated dramatically. It therefore presents an arbitrage opportunity. The US dollar will eventually come back down and stabilize along w the yen rebounding. The problem i'm running into is how long this could take for the market to correct . Anyone have any inputs or comments?
Early reactions on supports for Yen - What's next?JPX still has to retake 72 for it to be showing signs of the big butterfly reversal being in play.
Here's a few shorter-term signals that help to define the area in which to bet most aggressively on the low and place tight stops. Once there's a pullback a low should stop before the 220 fib. As we got close to this 220 fib was where I scaled up my long Yen positions.
An early bounce on this level often indicates we'll go up at least a bit more. The question at this point is most often will we see a 2 leg correction in the downtrend or will we see an explosive 5 wave climb breaking the downtrend?
I very much doubt the breaking of the Yen downtrend would come without news. Might be BoJ news. Could be world markets/risk-off news. And sadly the theme of news during the bear moves of 2020 and 2022 has often been news related to real world suffering and death.
But usually "Something" has to happen for a big turn like this to come into effect. Most often something I could not predict (And guessing the headline does not matter).
JPY is in a monthly downtrend.JPY is in a monthly downtrend.
In order for the downtrend to continue, a new monthly correction trend line must be drawn for it to continue. If a correction occurs, the monthly correction is more likely, and the blue support line is more likely to be tested. If it settles above the blue line, the monthly downtrend will stop and the chance that the uptrend will resume is very high. The reason is that the low is the starting line of the yearly correction trend of the upward wave.
Long Yen is my largest position. Adding more to my JPY long position. It's already my biggest position and scaling it up more. The index has now completed a big butterfly pattern. With the classic capitulation in the D leg, news driven. When the butterfly reversal works, we now begin to uptrend. Often also news driven.
Short GBPJPY, NZDJPY, AUDJPY and EURJPY.
JXY longhello tradingview community, lets get straight into technical... currently the JXY is completing the falling wedge, it could break the falling wedge or may pull back and stay in the falling wedge since it is still in the bearish momentum area according to RSI and Macd for 8hr tf.. Price has made a strong support around 73.03 where the could or may not test again.... Our main target is 76.16 which is the next resistance it need to test or break through...
good luck -
JPY index 1W TF bearish trendOn this chart of the JPY index, we see a strong resistance in the zone of the 38.2% Fibonacci level and the continuation of the bearish trend. The BOJ continues to stick to its dovish policy, which could further weaken the already weak Japanese yen - JPY.
Japanese Yen Bullish Divergence on DailyTrade Safe - Trade Well
Regards,
Michael Harding 😎 Chief Technical Strategist @ LEFTURN Inc.
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YEN CROSSES ON THE RISE | USDJPY CADJPY GBPJPY
JXY, Yen has technically taken out the support and price slides further downside. All the crosses looks like to make all time high specially USDJPY
BoJ Stance:
BoJ would adhere to its ultra-loose policy until the Bank achieved its inflation target of 2%.
With Kuroda doubling down on the Bank’s accommodative policy, the risk for the yen is clearly tilted to the downside, barring a decline in US Treasury yields.
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How you do see the direction of Yen in future.
JXYYen hitting ATL recently is interesting, now its retracing, but to what level before a continuation of this downtrend? Looking back at prehistoric res/sup levels we can clearly see that the area around 80.00 is significant. 80.00 is also a nice psychlogical level. We could expect a monthly closure around 80.00.
Keep in mind, you win some, you lose some. And u need to do your own research too!
Japanese Yen , more drop is expected in long term I explained the whole market in my video that I published in my channel
USDJPY SHORT! Yen near Reversal to satisfy Shorts!
Overview:
Yen has failed remarkably at 87.34 - 89.17 Buy-zone where Buyers previously shored Support.
87.34 - 82.37 is a Major Buy-zone layered with numerous Buy-levels which, so far, all have failed to attract Buyers.
So what are the chances USDJPY will experience the unprecedented and anticipated Selloff?
First the Yen has to find Buyers. Technically, The Buy-zone has now drastically narrowed to 81.89 through 79.56 zone or lower to 77.54 --Or through tests at the Trend-line. It is not clear how long Buyers will take to raise the Yen index-- But it is Clear where they have the Best chance to reverse the Index.
Note: Idea is to complement your research.
Check comments section for future updates on idea.
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Thank you. Happy Trading.
JXY has found a floorJapanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday the damage to the economy from a weakening yen at present is greater than the benefits accruing to it, making the most explicit warning yet against the currency's recent slump versus the dollar.
His remarks came before his trip to Washington to attend a gathering of financial leaders from the Group of 20 (G20) major economies this week. Among the many discussions, the minister is also scheduled to a hold a meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Suzuki vowed to stick to Group of Seven (G7) advanced economies' agreement on currencies and closely communicate with U.S. and other countries' currency authorities to "respond appropriately" to currency movements.
An April 1-11 poll of 5,400 Japanese firms conducted by private credit research firm Tokyo Shoko Research showed roughly 40% suffered a negative impact from a weak yen, with assumed dollar/yen rates being as low as 110 yen among listed manufacturers.
The previous poll in December, when the dollar was moving around 113 yen, found only about 30% of Japanese firms saw a weak yen as negative, underscoring how the rapid depreciation since the start of this year is hitting companies.
www.reuters.com
Overall low since 2007Japanese government will do something to stop their currency from depreciating.
JPY SeasonalsAs per seasonals, JPY is bullish for month of april. also at base Support.
2009: +0.22%
2010: -0.38
2011: +2.39
2012: +3.85%
2013: -3.36%
2014: +0.98%
2015: +0.54%
201ó: +5.84%
2017: -0.13 %
2018: -2.6%
2019: -0.47%
2020: +0.37 %
2021: +1.32 %
Positive (8/13)
JXY SHORT IDEA After the Open, the price gaped lower trapping net long positions at 81.68. Price is delivered lower and broke a swing low at 81.33. This market structure break illustrates the willingness of the market to go lower potentially reaching a target of 80.70.
With entries in the PM Session during the London Close, I expect institutional Selling of JXY at 81.50 as price is delivered lower for smart money entries and failing to give any net long trader long any redemptive exit at break even. Any trader on the wrong side will have to liquidate positions at a loss.
Inversely, I expect the weakness in JXY to give strength to GBP for the GBPJPY pair which may seek liquidity higher towards/after New York Close. Asia Session should provide more volatility to squeeze higher and anticipate an impulsive sweep on the highs. Institutional buying seems to be happening as the price is being delivered lower and more long positions are getting added.
Observe future J61! next idea
JPY Rally is on the way ?Hi, please check the all JPY graphs I publish. That could be a huge opportunity to become Yen long.
All set - up are ready
Stay calm guys, we are nearly there.The YEN weakness is the main driver of its pairs, especially USDJPY. As many of us have been expecting a decline in price, we just might be very close to shorting JPY pairs. JPY pairs are mostly overbought across board so keep an eye on the YEN reversal for a short opportunity of YEN pairs. Good luck and stay liquid. x
JXY AnalysisWe see price is headed down to 80.8-81.57 meaning that the down trend will further continue meaning all currency pairs against jpy should perform decently well.
the take away is that once price reach 80.8 or a bit below we will see a reversal to the uptrend
JPY index short viewFirst of all, looking at the chart, we see that we have been in the bearish trend since January last year.
Second, the JPY index failed to form a new higher high compared to the August 2016 high.
By setting the Fibonacci level, we see that the index stopped at 38.2% Fibonacci level.
This is a sign of continuing the bearish trend
JPY breaks below 84,200, our previous support from December 2016.
We are looking for the next target and potential support in the zone of about 80,000 (support zone from 2015).
Bank of Japan continues with soft monetary policy
Based on this analysis, we can expect a further weakening of the JPY index in the coming months.
