$Z time to long this breakoutRSI breakout; and breakout imminent on falling wedge setup.
Holding 100c 5/22 LONG.
Housing market is not going to slow down. This has had a significant pullback in the last year.
Z trade ideas
Early stages..Long downward wicks suggesting a possible reversal - my eyes are still at 70.. Zillow gets quite a bit of dip-buyers with all of the press around them
$Z HTF ACB LongMonthly - 0.618 Fib
Weekly - Support
Daily - Wave 5 completion/Descending triangle/Double bottom/MACD/Bullish Engulfing
LTF - Descending triangle Breakout/MACD/Double bottom
RR - 8 (Previous M/W highs)
Management - Long term
Z - Zillow Group IncZillow will continue to drop as long as there are price reductions and they lose money on their shady deals. They've been lying to everyone about how the housing market is secure and going to continue to boom.
Apart from their imminent downfall for the remainder of this year, the market itself is going to crash:
If we look at the current state of the market, the Market Cap to GDP Ratio is extraordinarily high:
Bubble Highs:
- DotCom Bubble: 139.5%
- 2008 Crash: 100.3%
- 2021+: 186.0%+
Historic Average:
- Average: ~85%
To be fairly valued, the market would need to drop around 60%.
Wilshire 5000 Total Market Inde (^W5000) = $45,313.82
Title: Gross Domestic Product
Series ID: GDP
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Release: Gross Domestic Product
Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Frequency: Quarterly
Units: Billions of Dollars
Date Range: 1947-01-01 to 2021-04-01
Last Updated: 2021-08-26 7:51 AM CDT
Notes: BEA Account Code: A191RC
GDP = 22,731.369 as of 2021-04-01
(45,313.82 / 22,731.369) * 100 = 199.344879%
Even if we were being more conservative about it, (45,313.82 / 25,000.00) * 100 = 181.25528%
Buy back in when everything is on sale.
Zillow Group Falling Wedge1. Falling wedge breakout?
2. Testing 0.618 retracement?
3. If not then road to $60 is open.
Which Real Estate Technology Platform Stock to Buy Now?Which real estate technology platform to buy?
$ZG Zillow Group, $OPEN Opendoor Technologies, $EXPI eXp World Holdings or $RDFN Redfin Corporation
There is no doubt all of the above-mentioned companies are good ones and they will do well in the long term, but at this particular time, the confluence of the technical analysis signals and valuation analysis shows that $ZG is a better choice if it breaks above and closes on a high volume. The setup still will be valid and must be revised if the price of $ZG slips down more, but sooner or later the breakout should trigger a very safe entry.
Interestingly, even though $ZG is the largest of all four, it has a higher gross margin and its revenue growth (50%) is smaller than $OPEN (81%) only for 2022. However, $ZG has the smallest EV/GP ratio for both 2021 and 2022 at 10.1 and 8.2 respectively. This makes $ZG a very good deal for the size and reputation it has as well as for the growth it is developing. $OPEN still remains a company that has the highest growth rate, but since it just IPOed last year and except the last QE the negative pressure on the price was a lot since it was a SPAC deal. The pressure on the SPAC stocks was brutal and some of them barely survived above 10. $OPEN is one of them that was picked up by the market as a worthy stock and not a bad SPAC rip-off deal. Unlike Zillow that has gained reputation and maturity in the public market, $OPEN needs more time and more QEs to justify the high growth rates.
Disclaimer: I own a lot of $OPEN and some $EXPI and I am going to initiate a new position on $ZG in the near future. This is not trading or investment advice. Do your own due diligence. Don't risk money you cannot lose.
Z for Grouth?Write all questions and not accuracy in the comments.
1. Until July 2018, we developed the 1st wave
2. Further, until 2020, we developed a correction, I adhere to this form. Since the orange abc is the Expended flat, B= 1.382 A, C=2 of the A wave, when using Trend based, L1=L2. WXY is usually threes. In wave X, there is not quite a triple, but I will close my eyes, you can replace it with ABC, in the composition of C there will be ABC, which I described earlier. THIS IS THE second
3. Next, we have alternatives. We could have developed all this time the 1st as part of a large third – (1) blue or it was the 3rd-alt III red.
4. The depth of correction? Since it is possible to distinguish clearly 9 waves in the growth from the beginning of 2020 to the beginning of 2021, it seems difficult to determine the stretched 5th wave or the 3rd. Therefore, there is a yellow alt numbering.
5. The current correction is ABC, the depth of the wave (c) can be as 1 of the wave (a), also 0.382 of the correction from the entire movement. So is 1.618 from the wave (a), also 0.5 corrections from the entire movement during the year. I.e., this is an 85 or 60 landmark. As a result, this is a certain area of the correction goal, where the price can reach the bottom, in the considered model – $ 85-60.
6. If the bottom is reached at the level of $ 86. You can take it with readiness for further decline, and wait for the price of 100, as a level from which we can start, as some kind of confirmation of the price reversal, there will also be moving averages + a round price at this level.
7. There are green levels of 0.382; 0.5; 0.618 on the chart – these are the values for the option if this entire correction was only part of the 1st part of a large flat correction. But even in this case, at least 25% growth. A flat long consolidation can occur if the company's revenue growth slows down (it is now reaching profitability, by the way) and will show a small constant profit in the area of a specific value without significant growth. This can happen, just in the case of degenerative changes in the real estate market. This option will perfectly coincide with the FA and will reflect reality.
8. Globally, we can expect an update of the highs of $ 210 and above, up to$300. But this is not one year of movement.
Z/ZG longZ broke out of downward wedge on daily time frames. Bullish divergence in play with upcoming resistance knocking in the 100-105 range. Setting stop loss below previous low
$Z Shows a Familiar PatternAs with so many growth stocks that were pumped to the gills last year and then subsequently destroyed this year, $Z has the familiar falling wedge displaying itself in so many places.
I expect it to break out soon and a conservative first target is noted.
$Z Long Zillow is down 50% from ATH, just had a solid earnings beat and got a strong reaction upwards when it retested below $90. Huge RSI divergence on the daily.
Looking at shares w/ a stop loss of 90, first PT of 101, rest are fibs.
Jan 2022 100-105c look good as well ($6-8)
The Future of Real EstateThe future of real estate (RE) is without a doubt online. As an agent in various cities across Texas (Houston + Bryan + College-Station), I have had real-world experience with how these factors affect the whole supply chain of RE. I believe that almost every aspect of RE is in the crosshairs of drastic change. I will break it down into several categories and a corresponding public company with ventures in the sub-sector.
Real Estate Tours - It is obvious why this practice was revolutionized during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, I believe that this trend will be one that sticks with us for the rest of time. The savings created in terms of time, travel, and other resources provides an immediate economic surplus. This is particularly true if you are moving from another state or country. Additionally, the universality of smartphones allows you to tour pretty much any property from the luxury of essentials anywhere.
STOCK: $RDFN - Redfin Corporation
Digital Document Signing - This should be the 8th wonder of the world. The ability to sign from anywhere is a luxury that the human race desperately needed. It enhances accessibility, speed of transaction, and paper reduction. Which all happen to be good for the environment. It’s a yes from me, dawg!
STOCK: $DOCU DocuSign Inc.
Photography/Staging - One of the newest development in RE is immersive virtual tours and virtual staging. Check one I made here (Use incognito Browser). Both are huge developments with serious cost savings and arguably better results. Virtual tours are perfect examples of ‘a picture is worth 1000 words’. Staging is a huge development because it takes the hassle and money out of physically moving furniture, decor, etc into AND out of an unoccupied home. A huge benefit for all parties.
STOCK: $MTTR - Matterport
House Pricing - Pricing a home is one of the hardest things for a realtor. There are a lot of variables that you must take into account and the margin of error can be quite significant. So, why not use technology which is infinitely better at math than the greatest mathematician? Pricing mechanisms like Zillow’s Zestimate use AI and variables about a home to instantly price any property.
STOCK: $Z - Zillow Group Inc.
Wholesaling - One of the most profitable industries in RE is wholesaling. What is wholesaling? Just like any wholesaler, they buy products at a discount and then sell them at a larger markup. Think Walmart or Amazon but for all kinds of RE. These entities find distressed or unwanted properties and find a corresponding buyer for a premium. Economically speaking, anytime you take out the middleman more profit is shared between the counterparties, the same applies in this scenario.
STOCK: $OPEN - Open Door Technologies
Property Management - Property management is exactly what it sounds like, boring right? The management of property whether that property is a 1-bed house or a 1000-unit apartment property management companies manage these properties. They are in charge of getting the property leased, performing maintenance, settling customer services disputes, and everything in between. Yet, for the most part, property managers are antiquated and use little technology. With AI and automation, we are on the verge of a management revolution.
STOCK: I am unaware of a good company in the space. Any suggestions?
In summation, each of the categories is distinct in its own way and each of these categories is vital for the RE complex as a whole. As the industry continues to evolve these processes will still be required in the business. The manner in which the business is conducted, however, is positioned to be disrupted in a massive way. We are in a RE renaissance.
ZTrade alert. Breaking 101.69 should
Be a pretty clear run to 112$. Has been in downtrend but this ascending triangle built here is giving Us a clear higher low trend.
Great trade let’s see if we can break. Can also enter above 102 for safer entry
my buy alerts are set
Zillow to move to next Fib levelZillow consolidating for long, looks like shaked all sellers - possible move up to next Fib level or 136$
Z in hibernation mode - zzzzzzzzzZillow has been quite obviously bearish for the past year - a simple scroll through the idea stream would reflect months of failed called bottoms.
The recent crack below $100 (along with major subsequent selling pressure) has only made the charts uglier - Z couldn’t even hold onto a 2% gain today (08/18)
I’m opening up the comments to any TA you may have done. I really want to see where the consensus from a technical POV - also fundamental if you have any thoughts? What would justify their $TSLA like P/E
The $65 level looks interesting for a legitimate bounce - supply/resistance zone meeting a long term MA
z lookin hotemotional sellers meet technical buyers. dats what z looks like to me. we got a massive h & s for z and a subsequent breakdown and for the past year bearish price action. today finally marked a turning point imo. we got a reversal candlestick, price bounced from a technical price level, and huge volume the past few days.
Zillow Group (Z)Keep an eye on shares of Z which are at an important juncture. Share have price support at current level as well as RSI support around the 38.2 level. This RSI level provided significant support in the past, so RSI falling below this level would be negative. That said, technicals are weak, shares could be vulnerable.
Sunday Prep 8/08 - $Z SHORT
Hard to argue the weakness with that big red daily candle after the numbers came out. this name is really just hanging on by a thread. Under 99 and things can get really ugly. so I’ll either be looking for a pot back into 103 to get short, or I will watch for it to crack under 100 and then look to join the trend.
