NATURAL GAS-Pt.1- Correction about to complete?Hello traders,
here is our view about natural gas.
As we can see from the monthly time frame, natgas completed an impulse after breaking a big descending triangle.
After reaching a top of 9.995, natgas created a head and shoulders pattern that coincided with a 535 structure to the downside, as showed in the main chart.
Then, wave 3 of C seems to be completed with an ending diagonal.
If the bullish macro count is in now we should go for another impulse up. Alternatively, we may get a (C) wave to complete
the monthly retracement higher than 10. In the latter case to move to 9.995 would only be a (A) cycle correction of the descent from 2005 high of 16.477.
In both cases, we expect a big buying opportunity coming soon in natural gas.
We are not taking long positions now for wave iv of C since sentiment in retail brokers is over 90% long.
When ALL the retailers are buying, who is selling to them? Who is gonna buy to actually put upward pressure on price?
This is why extreme sentiment is a contrary indicator.
We will update as soon as we see a long setup.
NATURALGAS trade ideas
Looking for good r/r in NatGasTrade Idea: Buying Natgas
Reasoning: Price action posted a new low yesterday, however afternoon price action reacted higher forming a bullish hammer candle on the daily chart. The overnight pullback has stalled and reacted higher at the Ichimoku cloud base. Buying offers great risk/reward after a monster selloff.
Entry Level: 2.862
Take Profit Level: 3.20
Stop Loss: 2.74
Risk/Reward: 2.7:1
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NATURAL Price hit the monthly support. A bounce on way.Price hit the monthly support. There will be good bounce from here at least to the level marked as first resistance. There will be a pullback there before deciding the further course of price action.
Long entry set up on Natural GasWhile natural gas has sold off in dramatic fashion over the last couple of months, a swing trade presents itself with a great entry at support.
Since entering an upward sloping wedge in July 2020, Natural gas has completed a 5 stage Eliot wave in typical fashion, an ABC correction and now potentially in a corrective 1 -5 Eliot wave move having lost the wedge trend.
The asset is in oversold territory with the RSI falling below the 30 level on the weekly, selling volume profile at peak levels in weeks but stalling on the $2.6 level which acted as resistance in Sep, 2019 and support more recently in April, 2021.
Anticipating a level 4 Elliot wave form with a technical target of $3.5 , potentially a 31% upside .
Ref :
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
LONG call on Natural GasHi All,
Natural Gas had a really harsh retracement in recent weeks.
It is currently oversold on all indicators. Already completed an ABC corrective move.
Perfect entry would be 2.5 $ but we can start dca even from current levels.
TP2 : 7 $
TP1 : 5.25 $
SL : 1.9 $
Risk/Reward : 7.5
Good luck & have fun :)
$Natgas $UNG $BOIL $KOLD Analysis, Key levels, and Targets $Natgas $UNG $BOIL $KOLD Analysis, Key levels, and Targets
Holy Moly…. I’ve been out of natgas for a minute… but at this level I’m going to start accumulating…. Let’s see how we open but I will likely be buying April 21 8 or 9 calls in the morning….
Supported by 5 year volume…
Naturalgas becoming attractive wait for setup LongNaturalgas looks like good play.
Its dropped alot, and is stretched far from avrages for weekly, monthly, daily.
It looks like its finding support and winter is not over in europe or the US.
I will look for a setup and enter next week. You can play UNG to take advantage of the opportunity.
NATGAS - KOGHere we are, just as we wanted, the lower support has been hit and we have a short term support. We need this to push up now....We're in!!
As always, trade safe.
KOG
natural gas at it's historical low, back to 2012Besides the initial fallout of the pandemic, natural gas has never been so cheap against USD-M2 -- Buy when cheap ✔
WHEN it moves, it'll be big, waiting for confirmation
It could drop lower in the very short-term, and after that... balloons
BEWARE THE BEAST
NATURAL GAS: BEARLISH!#NATURALGAS #ShaneElliottWave
NATURAL GAS || 1D Chart analysis || Main wave count || 29 Jan, 2023 (UTC+7)
Hello traders,
That's my wave count for: NATURAL GAS
Timeframe Analysis: 1D
Expect Main Elliott Mode: Corrective
Expect Main Structure: Zigzag
Position: Third wave (black- intermediate degree)
Bullish Bet on Natural GasOversold on multiple time frames (daily, weekly). Bullish MACD divergence, waiting on a follow through. Two daily Hammer candles indicate dip buying. Gaps at 4.398, 6.416.
On the fundamentals side, Freeport LNG has started the re-opening process. I expect a sharp rise in Natural Gas price as it gets closer to fully operational as there's big discrepancy between spot prices in the US and the EU/Asia. Other US export terminals are planned for later this year (Alaska, etc..).
Cold weather in most of the US should increase storage withdraw, though it remains unclear if cold front will persist deeper into February.
See also $HNU, $BOIL, $UNG.
Natural GasCURRENCYCOM:NATURALGAS
Long Setup
Price crosses above, retest and close above 2.974.
Look for long trade setup to 3.648
Short Setup
Price trades down below 2.655
Crosses down, retest and continues downward.
Look for short trade setup to 1.893
Note: This is not a financial advice.
Natural gas retrace to 5$My pervious short thesis turned out to be right. The price dropped basically on political brute-force and I believe it still has another one leg up.
A calculated long position with a stop loss worth's the risk. I am going for a long position and will close below the major obvious resistance
US Natural Gas USDNTGI entered long position at 2.73
Freeport LNG is going to open soon after months of being offline. Export of US LNG to EU will resume which will lower EU prices and rise USA prices.
NATGAS - KOGIf this continues going down we'll be waiting below to test that level!
If you're not used to trading this be very cautious.
As always, trade safe.
Long on Natural Gas Natural Gas has been hammered over the last couple of weeks and It's about time it took a turn to fill in the gaps; beginning with the most recent one yet to be filled.
Strong positive RSI divergence on the daily, alongside oversold hourly, weekly and monthly RSI.
It's still freezing cold with many winter storms across the USA so I can't see Natural Gas being sold for much longer.
What are your thoughts?
second chart is a charm... NG bounce or another free fallSeems like Germany bought at whatever price the Gas was, hence the previous rally, and preparing soon to rebuy (it is still cold in here).
If the 786 fib is not the bottom, i will let this one go and possibly revisit it if my SL gets hit again 2635. ~ DYOR.
note... DXY might also have to wake the hell up (similar trend on both).
NATGAS with an impulseVery local 8.236 has been nailed precisely. Expecting this to be w3 followed by a retrace back to 1.886-1.272 intermediate before heading towards 4.236.
Has to hold major 1.886 for bulls to avoid total KO
Hold my beer pls
----
No financial advice, do your own research, don't be stupid
Natural Gas: Dirt Cheap!Hello friends.
Natural gas is dirt cheap! The price has fallen from the highs by an incredible 70% as the market came to realize that there was no winter crisis coming and was forced to unwind the overly crowded long trade. If you remember, people were expecting there would be a massive shortage of natural gas during the winter, and the herd was positioned long to take advantage of this. Since the herd is usually wrong, and since natural gas was objectively way too expensive, we had shorted it near the highs and made some money on the way down. Now things have changed again, and we will re-evaluate our positioning and share the reasoning behind our trade.
Here we can see natural gas priced against crude oil, an incredible pair due to the fact that it has worked 100% of the time to predict that the pair will move from supply to demand and back again over and over with the one exception of the time when crude oil briefly went negative due to extreme circumstances during Covid.
This chart tells us two things:
Crude oil is expensive (relative to natural gas) and will likely fall in price
Natural gas is cheap (relative to crude oil) and will likely rise in price
Now, we are not taking a pair trade and completing it with a short crude oil leg for several reasons. (We are only long nat gas, with no short side on crude oil). The main reason is that we are overall bullish on commodities, and we have a good basis for this idea. We think commodities overall will rise substantially over the course of the next several months. Take a look at our chart of commodity prices which features crude oil, wheat, lumber, gold, and lean hogs. Something from each big sector to show us the live prices and general trends of commodity markets.
It has fallen dramatically by almost 50%, despite many grand claims of inflation by people who are using lagging indicators and/or who are just clueless altogether. Our chart essentially shows the live inflation rate, which is widely ignored. If we were to use this index to measure inflation, we would find that the actual inflation rate during 2022 was about -25%. Extreme deflation, as we predicted long ago, and made a profit from. The fed will see this at some point, and they will realize that since they have completely obliterated commodity prices by slashing them in half it's time to stop deleting dollars + hiking rates, and start considering a pivot. There is no need to crush commodities even further, since the real goal is price stability, and deflation is considered to be far worse than inflation by economists. (We don't totally agree, but that's what they think, and the Fed will want to avoid deflation at all costs).
Price controls supply and demand, which makes commodities perhaps the most mean-reverting asset out of everything. Production will be reduced because of lower prices, and consumption will rise. The ultimate effect is price bouncing.
Another key point, China has reopened. This is a massive bullish signal for the commodity markets because they consume such a massive amount of commodities in the process of being the global center for almost all manufacturing (most things are made in China). As a result of this, China consumes more energy than anywhere else on the planet. This means China's opening up will increase demand for commodities broadly and should push prices higher. The thesis is supported by past evidence, and we can see that commodity prices often follow the MCHI China ETF. Considering the China ETF has rallied over 50%, commodities should follow later.
Trading plan
We will go long on the US Natural Gas futures market with a settlement date of 3/29/23. The trade has an entry price of $2.90, a stop loss of $2.50, and a take profit of $3.50. Note that the price is slightly different on this futures contract compared to the spot price. (This is a normal occurrence in futures markets). The trade has been given a decently high size because we think it has a substantial edge and we like to size trades according to the edge we believe they have. We are relatively good at estimating how likely a trade is to win.
Thanks for playing.
