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Nvidia Earnings - Where is the real bar set?In the lead-up to Nvidia's earnings, the market has put reports of delays to Nvidia’s next-gen Blackwell chip behind it. Blackwell's revenue contribution is not expected to ramp up until later this year. However, the market is positioned long the stock and the chip maker is again expected to beat expectations this quarter. Nvidia Q2 2024 expectations • Revenue: $28.6 billion • Gross Margins 75.6% • Earnings per share (EPS): $0.64. In that context, the “real bar” Nvidia will need to jump is likely nearer to Revenues greater than ~$29.85 billion and EPS of $0.69c.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by IG_com
NVDA: The market anticipates Nvidia's Q2 earnings reportInvestors and analysts are keenly focused on Nvidia Corporation as it prepares to release its Q2 earnings this Wednesday. Nvidia, a powerhouse in the artificial intelligence industry, has been at the forefront of producing cutting-edge chips for data centres, which is crucial for developing AI models. The company's products are in high demand, serving a diverse customer base from tech behemoths like Microsoft to innovative startups like OpenAI. For the second quarter, Nvidia's management has projected a staggering 28 billion USD in total revenue, following a robust Q1 performance during which the company garnered 26 billion USD, surpassing its initial 24 billion USD forecast. The market is optimistic, anticipating that the Q2 results might exceed expectations, similar to the previous quarter. Technical analysis of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) Exploring potential trading opportunities based on Nvidia's stock performance ahead of the earnings report: Timeframe : Hourly (H1) Current trend : the stock is showing an upward trend on a daily scale, with prices consolidating in a narrow range on the hourly chart as the market waits for the earnings announcement Short-term target : the immediate upside target is set at the resistance level of 130.00 USD Medium-term target : breaking past the 130.00 USD resistance could open the pathway to further gains, potentially reaching the yearly high of around 140.00 USD Key support : currently established at 123.00 USD Reversal scenario : if the price drops below the critical support level at 123.00 USD, it could negate the bullish outlook and lead to a potential decline towards the next support level around 115.00 USD Market impact The upcoming earnings report from Nvidia is poised to influence market sentiment significantly and could catalyse movements across the broader US stock market. A report surpassing expectations may propel Nvidia's stock and lift broader market indices, while a disappointing outcome could trigger a corrective phase in Nvidia shares and dampen market sentiments. Investors should stay tuned for the earnings release, which will provide critical insights into Nvidia's financial health and its impact on stock market dynamics. — Ideas and other content presented on this page should not be considered as guidance for trading or an investment advice. RoboMarkets bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading opinions described in these analytical reviews. The material presented and the information contained herein is for information purposes only and in no way should be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law L. 87(I)/2017 of the Republic of Cyprus or any other form of personal advice or recommendation, which relates to certain types of transactions with certain types of financial instruments. Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65.68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by RoboMarkets
Nvidia (NVDA): Q2 Earnings Outlook Amid Stock Split & AI GrowthIntroduction Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:NVDA ) has been a dominant force in the technology sector, particularly in the AI chip market. As the company gears up to release its earnings report for the second quarter of 2024 on August 28th, investors are eagerly anticipating the results. With a year-to-date surge of over 150% and a pivotal stock split in June 2024, Nvidia continues to capture the market's attention. Fundamental Overview: A Leader in AI Chips Nvidia's Q2 earnings report is expected to show a year-over-year revenue increase of approximately 112%, bringing total revenue to $28.68 billion. This impressive growth is driven by the company’s dominance in the AI chip market, where its graphic processing units (GPUs) are critical for large-scale AI applications. Companies like Microsoft (MSFT) and other tech giants have been investing heavily in Nvidia’s technology to build out their AI infrastructure, which has significantly boosted Nvidia's revenue. However, despite these strong sales figures, Nvidia's gross margin may see a slight decline. The adjusted gross margin is projected to drop by over 3 percentage points to 75.8% from the previous quarter, primarily due to the costs associated with ramping up production to meet the surging demand for its chips. This is a key area for investors to watch, as it could impact Nvidia's profitability in the near term. Moreover, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) faces potential challenges in maintaining its rapid growth. With the law of large numbers coming into play, sustaining triple-digit revenue growth becomes increasingly difficult as the company’s market cap expands. Additionally, potential production delays for Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell AI chips could pose a risk to future earnings. Analysts have raised concerns about design hurdles that might push the chip’s launch timeline, potentially affecting revenue growth in the first half of 2025. Nvidia's market position is also under scrutiny, with U.S. regulators probing the company’s business practices. There are growing antitrust concerns about whether Nvidia is leveraging its dominant position to pressure cloud providers into purchasing bundled products, including networking equipment alongside its sought-after AI chips. This regulatory environment adds another layer of complexity to Nvidia’s future prospects. Despite these challenges, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is likely to continue its strong performance in the AI sector. The company is expected to forecast a 75% surge in third-quarter revenue to $31.69 billion, although this represents a slowdown from the triple-digit growth seen in previous quarters. Nevertheless, Nvidia’s position as a leader in AI technology is unlikely to be seriously challenged in the near future. Technical Overview From a technical perspective, Nvidia’s stock is showing signs of strength ahead of its earnings report. The stock closed last Friday’s session up 4.55%, indicating strong investor confidence as the company prepares to announce its results. Nvidia’s stock is currently valued at about 37 times its forward earnings, which is higher than the average of around 29 for the top six tech companies on the S&P 500. This premium valuation reflects the market’s high expectations for Nvidia’s future growth. One of the key technical indicators to watch is Nvidia’s support and resistance levels. The stock has found solid support at $115.40, with a strong resistance pivot at $145.64. If Nvidia can break through this resistance level, it could trigger a significant rally, potentially driving the stock to new highs. Nvidia’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) was at 59.93 as of last Friday’s close, suggesting that the stock is in a healthy range, neither overbought nor oversold. This RSI level indicates that Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) could be primed for a surge, especially if the earnings report exceeds expectations. Nvidia’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is also showing bullish momentum. The MACD line has been trending above the signal line, a classic indicator of upward momentum in a stock’s price. This technical setup suggests that Nvidia could continue its upward trajectory, particularly if the earnings report delivers positive surprises. The Stock Split: Making Nvidia More Accessible In June 2024, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) announced and completed a 10-for-1 stock split. This move was designed to make Nvidia’s shares more affordable to a broader range of investors after its stock price had soared to over $1,100 per share. The stock split increased the stock's liquidity, allowing more investors to participate in Nvidia’s growth story. Since the split, Nvidia’s stock price has continued to rise, driven by the company’s leadership in the AI sector and the ongoing demand for its cutting-edge GPUs. The stock split also had the effect of broadening Nvidia’s investor base, as more retail investors were able to purchase shares at a lower price. This increase in liquidity has contributed to the stock’s continued upward momentum, as it has made it easier for investors to buy and sell shares quickly. Conclusion Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) is at the forefront of the AI revolution, and its upcoming earnings report is likely to be a major market mover. While the company faces challenges, including potential production delays and regulatory scrutiny, its dominant position in the AI chip market and its continued revenue growth make it a compelling investment opportunity. From a technical perspective, Nvidia’s stock is showing signs of strength, with key support and resistance levels suggesting the potential for further gains. The recent stock split has made Nvidia more accessible to a wider range of investors, further bolstering its market position. As Nvidia prepares to release its Q2 earnings, investors should keep a close eye on the company’s performance. A strong report could propel the stock to new highs, while any miss could trigger a broader sell-off in the AI sector. Nevertheless, Nvidia’s long-term growth prospects remain robust, making it a stock to watch closely in the weeks and months ahead.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by DEXWireNews
Navigating NVIDIA Earnings Led Volatility with S&P 500 OptionsNVIDIA will announce its Q2 2025 results on 28th August. The semiconductor giant is expected to deliver USD 28.6 billion in revenues. Even a mild shortfall can send its stock prices tanking. The firm is slated to scale even greater heights on continued AI hardware demand & explosion in data centres. ANALYSTS REMAIN BULLISH NVIDIA enjoys buy rating with 12-month price targets ranging from USD 90 to USD 200 per share across 52 analysts. Forty-seven analysts have strong buy rating followed by nine buys and five holds based on 61 analysts issuing ratings over the last three months. The firm has a commanding position in the AI-driven chip market. Booming demand for GPUs in data centres and cloud computing serve as relentless tail winds. NVIDIA EXPECTED TO DELIVER INCREDIBLE RESULTS ON GROWING AI DEMAND AI demand is palpable. This demand is vindicated by eye popping financial performance. Few can deliver higher earnings without comprising margins. NVIDIA has crushed both. Its revenues have risen 5.6x since 2019 while its net income has risen 10.6x during the same period. Its net income margins have expanded two-fold from 25.6% to 48.9% in the same time frame. Little surprise that its shares are up 162.71% so far this year far surpassing S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and other mega caps. NVIDIA IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ITS DOMINATION Tech firms are in early stages of AI hardware adoption, driving demand for NVIDIA’s chips. Its data center business is a key revenue driver, benefiting from growing AI workloads. Source: Statista NVIDIA’s AI GPUs are crucial for machine learning and neural network tasks. GPUs will contribute to 40% of its total revenue in 2024. The firm continues to expand its CUDA software ecosystem. CUDA enables developers to optimize AI workloads. Combination of hardware and software makes its ecosystem extremely sticky. It locks in developers & clients contributing to long-term revenues. Furthermore, NVIDIA’s long-term roadmap includes innovations in AI chips designed for specific tasks, such as inferencing and deep learning, areas where its competitors have struggled to gain traction. RECAPPING NVIDIA’S RECORD SHATTERING Q1 2025 EARNINGS The firm delivered record quarterly revenues of USD 26 billion (up 18% QoQ & 262% YoY), primarily driven by a 427% surge in Data Center business. Its net income of USD 14.88 billion and diluted EPS of USD 5.98, marked 21% and 629% increase respectively YoY. The gross margin rose to 78.4%, up 2.4% QoQ & 13.8% YoY. The firm also announced ten-for-one forward stock split effective 7th June. It increased quarterly dividend by 150% to $0.10 per post-split share. On such stunning results, its share prices rose 9.3% after announcement. Even though NVIDIA share prices have risen, its price-to-earnings ratio have come off thanks to even sharper rise in its earnings. The price paid for each dollar of earnings is cheapest over the last eight quarters based on P/E ratio. The P/E ratio is down to 51x as of Q1 2024 compared to 144x as of Q1 2023. EARNINGS SURPRISES & SHOCKS AND ITS IMPACT ON STOCK PRICES NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings has crushed expectations 21 out of the last 22 quarters since 2019. Beating earnings has become par for the course for this firm. Even mild shocks can cause tremors in its share prices. It is no surprise then that the 12-month rolling beta of the firm is 2.78x making it highly volatile. Beta measures share price sensitivity to the overall market. It quantifies price moves of a stock to the broader index. BETA HEDGING NVIDIA STOCKS WITH S&P 500 MICRO INDEX OPTIONS Portfolio Managers holding NVIDIA stocks can cleverly use deeply liquid CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Index Options (CME Micro S&P 500 Options) to hedge against potential earnings linked price shocks. Holding NVIDIA shares while hedging the holding via CME Micro S&P 500 Put Options helps to build effective portfolio resilience. Investors are assumed to hold one-hundred shares for illustration. The notional value of NVIDIA shares is calculated using close of market price on 23rd August. Trading View publishes twelve-month rolling beta for each stock. It can be used for calculating the required number of S&P 500 index puts to hedge against downside price risk. We suggest adjusting the beta upwards (“Earnings Linked Beta”) by 50% to cater for earnings linked excess volatility. The notional value of options is calculated using Earnings Linked Beta. Two lots of CME Micro S&P 500 Options are required to hedge 100 NVIDIA shares. The table below demonstrates overall Beta Hedged P&L based on various price scenarios for NVIDIA share prices and S&P 500 futures price after earnings. Single stock options can be used to hedge. The cost of hedging using them would be expensive due to elevated IV levels during earnings. Investors must balance cost savings against basis risks. Please note that beta hedging involves basis risks. If the stock and index prices fail to move in tandem as expected, then beta hedge may not provide adequate protection from adverse price moves. The table below illustrates Beta Hedged P&L if index moves in a muted manner which is unlikely. The table below illustrates Beta Hedged P&L if index moves inversely to NVIDIA share prices. This scenario is a highly unlikely but is included for clarity of understanding and illustration purposes only. Investors can consider exploiting elevated implied volatility in NVIDIA options by selling calls to partly fund the purchase of index put options. By selling a 25-delta options expiring on 30th August, the investor creates a covered call strategy on the underlying NVIDIA stocks. A 25-delta call translates to a 142 strike and the last traded price on 23rd August was USD 2.70 per share. Investors can view up-to-date pricing sheets along with various options analysis tools on CME QuikStrike . The P&L of beta hedge plus covered call assuming expected index moves is as shown below: MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by mintdotfinance
NVIDIA, parabolic move in progressIn my previous posts on NVIDIA, i mentioned that we are heading north and its likely going to get steep as we move ahead. The larger term view is we are going to complete larger Wave 3(multi-year) and we are in last wave 5 of wave 3(Please refer to my other chart for larger term view). Now i have tried to put Livermore Speculative chart on same chart and as of now its following it. I have two targets. These targets are 204 and 306 which i got from fibonacci levels. This is not a trade recommendation or financial advise. Kindly consider proper risk management. If you like the idea, kindly like, share and subscribe. :)
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NASDAQ:NVDALong
by coding_thoughts
28
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the the recent dip on NVDA: nor before the big rally: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NVDA NVIDIA Corporation prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 138usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2025-1-17, for a premium of approximately $15.65. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by TopgOptions
NVIDIA (NVDA) 1 Day Timeframe for Technical Analysis1. Trend Analysis: Short-term Trend: NVDA has been in a strong uptrend with a recent correction. The price seems to be attempting to recover, but it's currently testing a key resistance zone. Medium-term Trend: NVDA experienced a significant rally before pulling back. The current price action suggests the potential for either a continuation of the uptrend or further consolidation. 2. Key Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance Levels: $140.82 - $140.76: This zone represents a strong resistance level and aligns with the previous swing high. A break above this level would likely lead to a continuation of the uptrend. $136.20: Another key resistance level, slightly below the $140.82 - $140.76 zone. Breaking this level could be the first indication of bullish momentum. $129.37: The current price level, which appears to be struggling to break higher. If it does, the next target would be $136.20. Support Levels: $90.78: This level represents significant support and could serve as a target if the price breaks down from current levels. It’s also a key level to watch for potential long entries if the price rebounds here. $75.64: A critical support level below $90.78. If NVDA drops to this level, it would indicate a deeper correction and potential bearish sentiment. $39.23: This is a distant support level but should be kept in mind as a worst-case scenario if the market turns extremely bearish. 3. Chart Patterns: Symmetrical Triangle: The chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern, with the price approaching the apex. This pattern indicates indecision and can break either way. A breakout or breakdown from this triangle will likely determine the next significant move for NVDA. Wedge Pattern: The price action also shows a wedge, which is generally a continuation pattern. A breakout above the wedge would likely lead to a move towards the next resistance levels. 4. Indicators: MACD: The MACD shows a recent bullish crossover, which could signal the beginning of a new uptrend. However, if the price fails to break above key resistance levels, this signal could be invalidated. Volume: The volume shows a slight increase, which might suggest that a breakout is imminent. However, it’s crucial to monitor whether this volume sustains. 5. Price Action & Trading Strategy: Bullish Scenario: Entry Point: Consider entering a long position if the price breaks above $136.20 with strong volume, targeting the next resistance at $140.82 - $140.76. A break above this zone could lead to a continuation towards new highs. Exit Point: Take profits near $140.82 - $140.76 if the price struggles to break above. If momentum is strong, consider holding a portion of the position for a potential move towards higher levels. Bearish Scenario: Entry Point: Consider shorting if the price fails to break above $136.20 and shows signs of weakness, targeting the lower support at $90.78. A breakdown below $90.78 could lead to a further decline towards $75.64. Exit Point: Take profits near $90.78 once support is tested. If the price continues to fall, consider holding for a move towards $75.64, with a stop-loss above $136.20 to protect against a reversal. Risk Management: Use stop-loss orders to protect against adverse moves. Position sizing is crucial, with stops placed just below key support or above key resistance levels. 6. Forecasted Direction: Bullish Above: $136.20, with a target to reach $140.82 - $140.76. If this level is breached, NVDA could target new highs. Bearish Below: $136.20, with a potential test of $90.78 as the first downside target. If the price drops below $90.78, further downside could lead to a test of $75.64. Gap Analysis: Gap Above: $140.82 - $140.76: If NVDA breaks above $136.20, the gap at this level might be filled, and the price could push higher. Gap Below: $90.78: If the price breaks down from current levels, the gap could be filled as NVDA moves towards this support level. Summary: Key Levels to Watch: Bullish Breakout: Above $136.20, targeting $140.82 - $140.76, with potential for further upside. Bearish Breakdown: Below $136.20, targeting $90.78 with potential further downside to $75.64. Gap Fill Likelihood: First Gap to Fill: If the price breaks above $136.20, the gap at $140.82 - $140.76 is likely to be filled first. Alternative Gap Fill: If the price fails to break above $136.20 and starts declining, the gap near $90.78 might be filled next. This analysis should give you a clear roadmap for potential trading opportunities in NVDA based on the current technical setup. Keep an eye on the key levels mentioned and be prepared to act based on the direction of the breakout or breakdown from the current consolidation.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by BullBear-Insights
6
NVDA Near Historic Highs: Awaiting Key Breakout SignalsI’m sharing a weekly chart analysis for NVDA, focusing on its current position near historical highs at $129 after a bounce from $90. From the logarithmic scale chart, it's clear that NVDA has been in a long-term progression channel since July 2015. Currently, the price is positioned on the upper deviation line of this channel, indicating a potential resistance area. Given this position on the logarithmic scale, I am leaning towards a short bias as it suggests we could see a pullback or correction. I’ve also identified two cup & handle patterns, each with their respective targets. However, these patterns will only be validated based on the next price movements. While there is still a blue support trend and a red resistance trend in play, the price near its historical highs and its proximity to the upper boundary of the progression channel suggest that a downward movement could be more likely. However, due to the large time scale of the weekly chart, we should wait for further confirmation of a downtrend before taking a short position. For now, I recommend caution and suggest waiting for a confirmed breakout or breakdown from the current channel before making any decisive trades. I’d love to hear your insights and thoughts on this setup.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Eymen-GUVEN
Bullish Short Term Setup In NVIDIAPlease note: This is an If-Then setup in the NVIDIA stock. The share price fell quickly and dramatically today. So drastically that the price fell below the low of the value area of the last upward move. This situation offers us the opportunity for a short term long trade We enter this trade under the following condition: We wait for two closing prices within the Value Area, so the closing prices should be above the 124.95 dollar mark. We set the SL below the low of Monday's over-the-counter trading and select the high of the value area at USD 130.12 as the price target.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Ochlokrat
NVDA - Wave 3 Complete? Moving into Wave 4 territoryIt's a great day here for all you BitDoctor patients! Quick update on NVDA - Last update stated that NVDA was in wave 3 territory and we discussed termination of that wave 3 roughly at the 161.8% extension level around $131. We stopped just shy of that yesterday and now we're seeing a move down to $122. In the coming weeks (yes, this trading stuff takes time sometimes), I would expect NVDA to break that $122 level and ultimately go somewhere near $117-$118. I'd consider being a buyer in that area but it's possible we get a front run of that zone. Keep in mind, however, that a break of $117 (on a daily) would mean that we likely will retest $110 and if that breaks, we're looking at $104. It's not the likely scenario at this moment, but it's not completely off the table. Other things need to happen to increase any bearish confidence. Above $117 on a daily keeps confidence in the bull scenario where my primary target, at least for 2024, would be $140. Once we start to approach that level, we'll see where things land. Have a great day everyone!
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by bitdoctor
4