NATGAS buy bullish - AnalysisNATGAS
big bullish wave coming
2 different trading ideas
a riskier one, with less confirmation
a less risky one, with better confirmation
NG trade ideas
NATURAL GAS - Divergence on RSI Signaling Bullish MoveWe are seeing Bullish divergence on RSI for Natural Gas. Price seems to have exhibited change of character as well as price made first higher high after series of lower highs and lower lows. Price has not printed new lower low yet. Therefore bullish move ma be expected from here.
Natural gas...time to buy? Natural gas just keeps bleeding lower.
Despite the oversold intra day condition this commodity is finding no support.
Natural gas equities are mixed right now, but are definitely showing some signs of accumulation.
We think the next 2 support zones on Nat gas if we lose this critical area are $2.21 & $2.00
Beware Nat gas tends to overshoot.
This trendline we are holding right now connects through major lows going back to 2020.
Decision PointNATGAS
Downtrend is over. COT, Retail Sentiment and Fib Confirmed. Price hit bottom line fib 4.236 aligning with the lowest support area. Good Luck
NatGas UpdateI had to slightly rework the NatGas chart. The price appears to have formed and confirmed the Order Block, and is now retesting it to allow smart money to pull out of shorts that were previously opened to trigger the sell-off and collect stop orders underneath.
Historically Warm Weather to Support Natural Gas PricesAfter the second quarter relief rally and the five-month peak, Natural Gas registered a four-week decline. This has shifted bias to the downside again, creating scope for further losses towards 1.940. However, a look at the daily chart shows that NGAS tries to react at the lower border of the Ichimoku Cloud. Furthermore, a Golden Cross (EMA50 crossing above the EMA200) has been formed, which is often viewed as a precursor of sustained growth.
This technical formation compliments the favorable fundamentals, as demand is set to increase this year, while key drillers lower their activity. Although the world shifts to renewables, Natural Gas is seen a bridge fuel facilitating this transition. Furthermore, it is heavily used in electricity generation, being the top source in the US and No2 globally. June was the thirteenth straight month of record high temperatures according to Copernicus, which can provide another tailwind for energy demand during the summer months. This in turn can increase Natural gas consumption and support prices.
As a result, NGAS can reclaim the EMA200 that would give control to the bulls and the ability to push for the June peak (3.164). The upside contains multiple technical roadblocks though and there are risks to the upbeat supply-demand dynamics.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
NatGas Update #Natgas seems to have completed the wave down and is ready to explode. I can label the last wave as a diagonal and it seems that we have small 1-2-3-4 sequence completed.
So I flipped my stance from bearish to bullish.
NatGas UpdateI've noticed that Friday and Monday rarely bring a change in gas prices (unlike Bitcoin). Usually, the price follows the previous week's trend, which is currently downward.
It's possible that wave (5) of should be extended because waves and appear to be the same length.
The chart shows weekly cycles that last one week, from Friday to Friday.
Natural gas - liquidity grab at 2.12 - 2.18There are many factors why natural gas is going down:
*Hedge funds and large speculators are still net short
*Retail traders and non-commercials are net long and still not wiped out yet (CBOE and FXCM proprietary data)
*Seasonal variation (warmer than usual summer in northern hemisphere = less demand for natural gas)
*Liquidity still available at 2.12 - 2.18 levels - significant POI including the previous quarterly VWAP (pqVWAP) at this level
*Loosening of sanctions against Russia = more supply of natural gas
The bounce at 2.12 - 2.18 may only small before further downside/sideways price action. Best to leave this trade alone until the dust settles and new support forms on the lower timeframes.
NATURAL GAS 4 YEAR CYCLE PATTERNHere is something to take a look at regarding NatGas.
It appears to follow this 4 year cycle pattern pretty well, every 4 years since 2012 we have seen price go up for 2 years then down for 2 years & recycle.
I was very confident about buying NatGas around 1.60-1.80 as this area appears to be where the cycle starts, now we have already had those prices this year I believe NatGas will now continue to climb higher until 2026 - overall.
Of course price will negotiate in-between, there will be retracements and movements against the cycle but overall this 4 year pattern seems to be the boss on the Monthly timeframe.
Personally I would be looking for NatGas long positions from now until 2026, so every chance you get a discount, take it, because the overall outlook is NatGas ^Up^
If you trade NatGas please comment your opinion I would like to hear it
Natural gas - quarterly VWAP at 2.23 likelyNatural gas is going down. According to CBOE COT report, most big hedge funds and leveraged funds net short since April 2024.
Expecting price to hit at least 2.23 before any meaningful bounce. If leveraged funds and hedge funds keep adding to short positions, it is even more reason to avoid long natural gas.
As per CBOE COT report, retail traders 'non-commercials' are net long on natural gas. This is not something you want to see as most retail traders are usually on the wrong side of the trade.
Just my shorts entry IdeaOverall my best entry for short is still way above but you know price will do what it wants and this is a possible entry for shorts incase price doesn’t want to go all the way up to my original short entry idea.
Natural Gas Short Term Sell IdeaD1 - Price is bouncing lower from a strong resistance zone.
Bearish convergence.
H4 - Bearish trend pattern
Until the strong resistance zone holds I expect the price to move lower further after pullbacks.
NATGAS - Descending Triangle Hello Traders !
On Tuesday 11 June, The NATGAS reached a resistance level (3.006 - 3.046).
The price formed a descending triangle pattern.
At the moment, The support level is broken !
So, I expect a bearish move📉
______________
TARGET: 2.440
NATGAS GROWTH AHEAD|LONG|
✅NATGAS is about to retest a key structure level of 2.40$
Which implies a high likelihood of a move up
As some market participants will be taking profit from short positions
While others will find this price level to be good for buying
So as usual we will have a chance to ride the wave of a bullish correction
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Natural Gas at more than three years lowIf we look at the global financial markets, the price of natural gas has fallen by about 40%, and here comes the moment to ask ourselves whether this negative decline represents an opportunity for investors. To analyze this situation we decided to compare the average return of the asset against seasonality. This is cautioned, in no way should it be taken as investment advice, and investors should keep in mind that natural gas is an extremely volatile commodity!
The two periods in which the price of natural gas fell below $2 were March 2016, when it reached a low of $1,611, and June 2020, with a low of $1,250. It is the last price that is the lowest point of the raw material for decades, but it should be taken into account that it was reached at a time of mass panic, due to the then spreading coronavirus.
If we look historically at what gas does one year after reaching a price below $2, we can see that in both years there is a positive performance the following year. After the decline in 2016, the commodity is up 98 percent, and the next time it is below $2, it is again up 45 percent above its marked bottom.
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Natural Gass CompassIn this one I use my preferred charting tool that uses data points from the past: Curved Trendlines. While there are other variations of such lines that I might use depending on the context, in this case the pattern low-high-high or high-low-low is widely detected as relevant and used as such for mapping out potential forces and support/resistance zones.
As you can see there is a relevant potential support zone validated by both the white curve and the blue curve which overlap further in time. There will be no surprises if the these levels keep holding the price for a while.
The yellow one is the weakest one in my opinion, because of the peculiar case on natural gas that doesn't provide much options for such support/resistance lines, because of the X high that was created in a strong but weird position relative to past highs and lows. Meaning that if the yellow is broken on the up, it might not even matter in the future because a different setup might unfold, creating a totally different type of line in any type of pattern regarding previous highs and lows.
What I like about these lines is that the relevant ones tend to provide clear cut cases of rebounds (example in the white dot), retests after break (green dot), or even pure power breaks with no comebacks (yellow dot).
The scenarios I find important in this picture are the following:
- the obvious potential rebound from the white and blue
- the less obvious but very important break on the downside of the white and blue which has a higher chance of a retest because of the significance of these lines (these retests tend to happen for these long lasting lines with many data points)
- supposing the yellow line does hold, or if another similar resistance line appears after another high lower than X, and supposing the white is finally penetrated, we enter the C zone which I believe has a decent probability for action inside it.
I find the B zone less likely to be relevant as it implies the breaking of the white which should lead to a more bearish or consolidation mood rather that another power bullish move.
I decided to post this snapshot here with these lines because as you can see the price has provided decent relevant lines in the recent past with the greens and blue, while in the current present case, these lines are almost non existent because of the position of the X high relative to the previous highs and lows.
My guess is that a careful analysis of the reaction of the market to these lines could give us clues of what the sentiment in the market is, shifting from the bullish mood to a more cautious neutral or indecision mood with the break of the white and blue.
XNGUSDSelling XNG/USD at this key resistance level is a strategic move. The graph clearly shows a downtrend, so we are looking for a retracement at this point to confirm the continuation of the smooth downtrend.
Natural Gas Price: Bullish Trend WeakensNatural Gas Price: Bullish Trend Weakens
Forecasts of a hotter summer, published during April and May, led to a sustained bullish trend in the natural gas market, as this commodity is heavily used for air conditioning.
Specifically:
→ The XNG/USD chart indicates that from 1st April to today, the price of natural gas has increased by more than 55%.
→ According to Bloomberg, there is a 61% chance that 2024 will be the hottest year on record, surpassing 2023.
→ Natural gas supplies may be unstable due to an unforeseen maintenance shutdown at the Freeport plant.
According to the technical analysis of the 4-hour XNG/USD chart:
→ The price of natural gas has formed an ascending channel (shown in blue).
→ On 23rd May, the price reached a 2024 high around the 3.160 level, breaking the upper boundary and entering the overbought zone on the RSI indicator.
→ On 11th June, this high was marginally exceeded, but the price then turned down, forming a false bullish breakout pattern.
Thus, the 3.160 level appears to adequately factor in the risks of an extremely hot summer. Therefore, the bullish trend weakens as it approaches this level.
Meanwhile, bears are becoming more active, indicated by:
→ The price of natural gas twice breaking below the green lines of intermediate upward trends.
→ The price broke below the median line of the blue channel (shown by the arrow).
→ This week, the psychological level of 3.000 acted as resistance.
It is possible that the bears could drive the price down to the lower boundary of the blue channel.
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Natural Gas: A Possible Bearish ScenarioNatural Gas: A Possible Bearish Scenario
Requires more confirmation for NG to move down.
However, considering how NG is developing the chances are that we can see this type of channel pattern taking shape soon.
If NG doesn't make a new high above 3 then it should continue with the bearish scenario
I draw in the chart.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
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