Natural Gas forming a perfect W pattern### Analysis of the W Pattern on the Natural Gas Chart
A **W pattern**, also known as a **double bottom**, is a bullish reversal pattern that typically indicates a shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. Here’s a detailed analysis of the current W pattern forming on the natural gas chart:
#### Key Characteristics of the W Pattern:
1. **Two Troughs**: The pattern consists of two distinct lows (troughs) at approximately the same price level, separated by a peak (intermediate high).
2. **Volume Confirmation**: Volume often increases at the second trough, indicating stronger buying interest.
3. **Breakout Point**: The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks above the intermediate high (the peak between the two troughs).
#### Current Natural Gas Chart Analysis:
1. **Formation of Troughs**:
- The first trough formed at around $2.20/MMBtu, where the price found initial support.
- The second trough formed at a similar level, reinforcing the support zone and indicating a potential double bottom.
2. **Intermediate High**:
- The peak between the two troughs is around $2.50/MMBtu. This level acts as a resistance point that needs to be broken for the pattern to be confirmed.
3. **Volume Analysis**:
- There has been an increase in trading volume around the second trough, suggesting stronger buying interest and potential accumulation by traders.
4. **Breakout Confirmation**:
- For the W pattern to be confirmed, the price needs to break above the $2.50/MMBtu level with strong volume. This breakout would signal a bullish reversal and the potential for further upward movement.
#### Potential Price Targets:
1. **Initial Target**:
- The initial price target is typically the height of the pattern added to the breakout point. In this case, the height is approximately $0.30 (from $2.20 to $2.50), giving an initial target of around $2.80/MMBtu.
2. **Secondary Target**:
- If the bullish momentum continues, the next target could be around $3.00/MMBtu, a psychological resistance level and a previous support zone.
#### Risk Management:
- **Stop-Loss Placement**: A stop-loss can be placed just below the second trough (around $2.15/MMBtu) to manage risk in case the pattern fails.
- **Volume Monitoring**: Continuously monitor volume during the breakout. A breakout with low volume might indicate a false breakout.
### Conclusion:
The current W pattern on the natural gas chart suggests a potential bullish reversal. Traders should watch for a breakout above the $2.50/MMBtu level with strong volume to confirm the pattern. Proper risk management and volume analysis are crucial to capitalize on this potential trading opportunity.
