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Natural Gas (NGS) / US DollarNatural Gas (NGS) / US DollarNatural Gas (NGS) / US Dollar

Natural Gas (NGS) / US Dollar

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NGSUSD trade ideas

Natural gas may pivot higherNatural gas had corrected during the first part of the week. Commodity markets still remain stay in play amid geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and declining stockpiles: for example, we observe a consistent decline of Natural Gas in Henry Hub for several weeks in a row. From a technical standpoint, Natural gas had bounced back from the intermediate-term resistance area of $3 per contract, but the market structure is still bullish, as there haven't been three full bearish candlesticks yet, and today we might observe a pullback as shown at the chart. Manage risks and trade well!
FXOPEN:XNGUSDLong
by Stanislav_Bernukhov_Exness
Wait for it!!! Natural Gas may have more downside.The double bottom playing out in natural gas is a classic bullish reversal pattern. This pattern typically signals a shift from a downtrend to an uptrend, characterized by two distinct lows at approximately the same level, separated by a peak (the "W" shape). Here's an in-depth analysis of the recent move and potential future trends for natural gas: Recent Move 1. Formation of the Double Bottom: - First Bottom: Natural gas prices hit a low, rebounded, and then fell again to form the second bottom. - Second Bottom: The second low was formed at a similar level to the first, confirming the double bottom pattern. - Neckline Breakout: The price then broke above the peak of the "W" (the neckline), signaling a potential bullish reversal. 2. Pullback to the Neckline: - After breaking the neckline, prices often pull back to retest this level. This pullback is typically seen as a confirmation of the breakout. - In this case, the pullback is expected to be around $2.30 to $2.40, aligning with the peak of the "W". Future Projections (October 8th, 2024 to Year-End) 1. Short-Term Outlook: - Support Levels: The $2.30 to $2.40 range will act as a critical support zone. If prices hold above this level, it reinforces the bullish sentiment. - Volume Analysis: Increased trading volume during the breakout and subsequent pullback would further validate the pattern. 2. Medium to Long-Term Outlook: - Bullish Continuation: If the support at the neckline holds, natural gas prices could see a continuation of the uptrend. Key resistance levels to watch would be around $2.60 and $2.80. Natural gas could easily rally into the 3’s if these resistance levels are broken. - Market Sentiment: Factors such as seasonal demand, geopolitical events, and supply constraints will play a significant role. Historically, natural gas prices tend to rise during the colder months due to increased heating demand. 3. Potential Risks: - False Breakouts: There's always a risk of false breakouts where prices fail to sustain above the neckline and fall back into the previous range. - External Factors: Unexpected changes in weather patterns, regulatory shifts, or significant changes in production levels could impact prices. Conclusion The double bottom pattern in natural gas suggests a bullish outlook, especially if the prices hold above the $2.30 to $2.40 support zone. Monitoring volume and external market factors will be crucial in confirming this trend. If the bullish momentum continues, we could see natural gas prices testing higher resistance levels and rallying into the $3 to 4 range towards the end of the year.
PEPPERSTONE:NATGASLong
by Neua0001
Natural gas is on the moveEnergy markets are on the move: volume in the largest oil ETF of the United States (USO) rose to a new peak in 2022. CME Group took a similar action for WTI Crude oil futures. The situation was fueled by geopolitical escalation in the Middle East. Natural gas has developed a strong momentum, getting back to $3, and if it holds this level, it will complete the “cup-and-handle” pattern, which points to the continuation to the upside, up to $4 area and above. The current price is also above the 20, 50, and 200 moving averages, indicating a “price discovery” regime. If XNGUSD doesn’t correct itself, it may develop another sharp spike upward.
FXOPEN:XNGUSDLong
by Stanislav_Bernukhov_Exness
1
Really as Simple as it seems- Very simple case for NG bulls on a long (2-5 year) basis. Macro trend simplified with nothing more than trendlines - Shorter term bear play will be described in another post - NG appears to be making a Jesse Livermore accumulation megaphone pattern as it did in the 90s/2000s 1) red long term downtrend line broken to the upside and retested beautifully. 2) weekly chart shows higher highs and higher lows beginning to develop on a longer time frame after the nasty drop from 2021 highs to lows which bottomed in the 2$ vicinity. 3) Shorter term black trendline still providing resistance upon the 3rd test. Confirmation of a breakout here is yet to be seen (this was where the short play revolves around) 4) major resistance around the upper red horizontal line at roughly 3.19. Lesser resistance just below red horizontal line. Conclusion: NG has been and continues to be extremely cheap historically. As NG resolves these resistance zones it appears a 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 megaphone pattern will generate as NG eventually reaches the 12-14$ area within the next few years. Natural Gas expected to tag lower trendline and upper trendline of megaphone pattern accordingly with seasonality and resistance levels along the way. Volatility is expected as the cylinder widens and price action becomes more erratic, though long term, the trend is bullish, but the Widowmaker is not for the faint of heart. Scaling in, and buying near lower trendline tags is likely most likely to increase probability of maximum profit.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by Commodity_TA_Plus
NATGAS Double Bottom Playing Out…Expect a ConsolidationThe double-bottom pattern in natural gas is a classic bullish reversal pattern, indicating a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. This pattern forms when the price hits a low, rebounds, drops back to a similar low, and then rises again. The key elements to watch are the two distinct lows (forming the "W" shape) and the breakout above the neckline, which is the resistance level connecting the peaks between the two bottoms. ### Current Analysis 1. **Formation**: The double-bottom pattern in natural gas has recently completed, with the price breaking above the neckline. 2. **Volume**: There has been an increase in trading volume, which often confirms the validity of the breakout. 3. **Resistance and Support**: The neckline, previously a resistance level, now acts as a support level. The next significant resistance level is around $3.00 per MMBtu. ### Price Direction Forecast Given the bullish breakout and the supportive volume, the price of natural gas is likely to continue its upward trajectory. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that natural gas prices will remain relatively flat in the short term but are expected to rise in 2025 due to increasing demand and stable supply. Therefore, in the near term, we might see some consolidation around the current levels, but the overall trend appears bullish.
PEPPERSTONE:NATGASLong
by Neua0001
2
Natgas - Pending RSI Failure SwingThis is an idea of what to look out for if natgas continues to rally into overbought RSI territory and tops out as it did in May and June of 2024 (current year). Look out for overbought RSI divergence followed by a failure swing as shown and outlined in further detail in the idea linked below, probably confirmed by MACD divergence as well. Look out for an approximately 40-day duration of top formation once RSI enters overbought territory, plus or minus 20 days. Be prepared for a max draw down of 2.14% if you short the close of the day the failure swing is confirmed. The previous gain was 29.16%. Due to the high draw down %, it may make sense to short a QG micro which is 1/4 of an NG contract, possibly adding more on the way down at your discretion. The trade entry may happen later this year, approximately mid November. Also something to watch out for is a much sharper rise with a much shorter RSI failure swing pattern as was formed at the start of the year 2024 (current year), also shown on the chart. The drawdown was much smaller and the target much greater (50% gain) but the short duration made the failure swing more suspect. It’s better if more than just 5 days form the top and a deeper valley is formed. This is all very hypothetical, but these are the types of swing trades I watch for and it’s good for me, if no one else, to note these potential trades as they approach. Please feel free to ask questions. Previous failure swing idea with additional explanation:
PEPPERSTONE:NATGASShort
by Skipper86
NATGAS BUY LONGChart Analysis: Structure: The chart displays a descending trendline that has been acting as resistance for a considerable period. Recently, the price has broken above this trendline, which suggests a potential shift from a bearish to a bullish trend. Additionally, there is an ascending trendline forming the base of an emerging wedge pattern, indicating increased buying pressure as the price is squeezed higher. Fibonacci Levels: The chart shows that the price recently retraced to a support area, likely near key Fibonacci retracement levels (0.5 or 0.618). This area seems to have provided a strong base for the price, which is now showing signs of moving higher. Two Scenarios: The chart suggests two possible bullish scenarios, indicated by the green zones. The first target is around 2.550-2.750 USD, and the second, more ambitious target, is around 2.800 USD. These levels align with potential resistance points where the price might encounter selling pressure. Trade Setup: Entry Point: The chart suggests entering a long position around the current price level, after the breakout of the descending trendline, which signals the end of the bearish trend and the beginning of a bullish phase. Target Price: The trade aims for two potential target areas. The first target is in the vicinity of 2.550-2.750 USD, where traders might consider taking partial profits. The second target is around 2.800 USD, which is a more extended move based on the projected continuation of the bullish trend. Stop Loss: The stop loss is strategically placed just below 2.079 USD, in the red zone. This is slightly below the recent low and the ascending trendline, providing a buffer against a false breakout and minimizing potential losses if the trade does not go as planned. Conclusion: This chart for NATGAS suggests a bullish outlook following the breakout from a long-term descending trendline. The setup is reinforced by the formation of a wedge pattern and the supportive Fibonacci retracement levels. The proposed trade aims to capture the upward momentum with clearly defined targets and a well-placed stop loss to manage risk effectively.
PEPPERSTONE:NATGASLong
by Ninjia_Kitty
NATURALGAS - Accumulation Is Nearly Over ❗Pumping here and growing in strength out of this accumulative area ❗ I think at some point we will see a third and bearish wave, but it may just be a shallow one before this really gets moving on up. Its currently in the retracement 0.618 Golden Window and so perhaps it happens here but it could also make a higher high. Our deeper buys at the higher time frame 0.618 are looking great now 👍. Nat Gas is heading Up Up Up 🚀
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by dRends35
2
Natural Gas Price Hits 3-Month HighNatural Gas Price Hits 3-Month High According to today's XNG/USD chart, the price of natural gas: → has risen by approximately 30% since the beginning of September; → is currently around the 2.95 level – the last time the price was at this level was at the end of June this year. Bullish sentiment is supported by: → forecasts of a warmer autumn, which is increasing demand for natural gas to power air conditioning systems; → concerns related to Hurricane Helen in the US Gulf of Mexico. According to the EIA, 5% of total US dry natural gas production comes from the Gulf of Mexico, and 51% of the total capacity of US natural gas processing plants is located along the US Gulf Coast. Technical analysis of the XNG/USD chart shows that in September, the price has been moving within an ascending channel (marked in blue). It is noticeable that from the 20th onwards, demand forces have intensified, leading to the following: → the price broke through the 2.64 resistance level; → the price moved to the upper half of the ascending channel, after which its median line began to show signs of support; → the RSI indicator reached overbought territory. Currently, there are no signs on the XNG/USD chart of bears attempting to seize control, while the bulls may be "gathering strength" for a possible attempt to break through the psychological level of 3.00. If this happens and is successful, it could pave the way towards the yearly high in the 3.20 region. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XNGUSD
by FXOpen
1
Natural Gas (NG/USD) Analysis - Harmonic Pattern at Key LevelsNatural Gas (NG/USD) is currently showing a Bullish Gartley harmonic pattern, with price hovering near a crucial resistance at 2.9000 USD. Fibonacci retracement levels highlight key zones for support and resistance. The TDIGM indicator suggests overbought conditions, as the market has surged significantly over the past few sessions. This increases the possibility of a short-term correction or sideways movement before another bullish leg. Investment Strategies: 1.Short-Term Sell (Reversal Strategy): Rationale: The price has reached a critical harmonic point (D) and is showing signs of resistance near the 2.9000 USD level, with the TDIGM suggesting overbought conditions. This setup increases the likelihood of a corrective move. Sell Entry: Around 2.8360 - 2.9000 USD after confirmation of price rejection at current levels. Stop Loss: Above 3.0750 USD, in case of a bullish breakout beyond resistance. Take Profit: First target at 2.7000 USD (0.236 Fibonacci retracement); Second target at 2.5781 USD (0.382 Fibonacci retracement). Risk/Reward Ratio: This strategy offers low risk/reward ratio, despite the potential for a profitable correction in the short term. 2.Medium-Term Buy on Pullback: Rationale: The price action suggests a longer-term bullish trend, despite the potential short-term correction. Entering after a pullback to key support levels provides a safer entry point for medium-term buyers. Buy Entry: Around 2.5000 - 2.4787 USD, which corresponds to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, offering a good entry after the expected correction. Stop Loss: Below 2.3600 USD Take Profit: First target at 2.8360 USD, retesting previous highs; Second target at 3.0750 USD, following the next leg higher. Risk/Reward Ratio: A well-timed pullback entry offers a low-risk, high-reward trade with the potential to capture the next wave up in the bullish trend. 3.Breakout Buy Strategy (Bullish Continuation) Rationale: If the price breaks above the 3.0750 USD resistance level, it indicates a strong continuation of the bullish trend, opening up more upside potential. Buy Entry: After a confirmed breakout and close above 3.0750 USD, which could trigger further upward momentum. Risk/Reward Ratio: The breakout strategy can offers a strong potential reward if the price breaches the key resistance, leading to higher highs. The Natural Gas market is approaching a pivotal point, with Point D of the harmonic pattern acting as a potential reversal zone. The short-term sell strategy offers a high-probability trade based on the current overbought conditions and harmonic setup, while the buy-on-pullback strategy provides a safer entry for longer-term bulls. If the price breaks out above the 3.0750 USD resistance, a continuation of the bullish trend is likely, offering further upside potential. As always, monitor the price action closely, especially on lower timeframes for additional confirmation.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by MrVNpt
Natural Gas forming a perfect W pattern### Analysis of the W Pattern on the Natural Gas Chart A **W pattern**, also known as a **double bottom**, is a bullish reversal pattern that typically indicates a shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. Here’s a detailed analysis of the current W pattern forming on the natural gas chart: #### Key Characteristics of the W Pattern: 1. **Two Troughs**: The pattern consists of two distinct lows (troughs) at approximately the same price level, separated by a peak (intermediate high). 2. **Volume Confirmation**: Volume often increases at the second trough, indicating stronger buying interest. 3. **Breakout Point**: The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks above the intermediate high (the peak between the two troughs). #### Current Natural Gas Chart Analysis: 1. **Formation of Troughs**: - The first trough formed at around $2.20/MMBtu, where the price found initial support. - The second trough formed at a similar level, reinforcing the support zone and indicating a potential double bottom. 2. **Intermediate High**: - The peak between the two troughs is around $2.50/MMBtu. This level acts as a resistance point that needs to be broken for the pattern to be confirmed. 3. **Volume Analysis**: - There has been an increase in trading volume around the second trough, suggesting stronger buying interest and potential accumulation by traders. 4. **Breakout Confirmation**: - For the W pattern to be confirmed, the price needs to break above the $2.50/MMBtu level with strong volume. This breakout would signal a bullish reversal and the potential for further upward movement. #### Potential Price Targets: 1. **Initial Target**: - The initial price target is typically the height of the pattern added to the breakout point. In this case, the height is approximately $0.30 (from $2.20 to $2.50), giving an initial target of around $2.80/MMBtu. 2. **Secondary Target**: - If the bullish momentum continues, the next target could be around $3.00/MMBtu, a psychological resistance level and a previous support zone. #### Risk Management: - **Stop-Loss Placement**: A stop-loss can be placed just below the second trough (around $2.15/MMBtu) to manage risk in case the pattern fails. - **Volume Monitoring**: Continuously monitor volume during the breakout. A breakout with low volume might indicate a false breakout. ### Conclusion: The current W pattern on the natural gas chart suggests a potential bullish reversal. Traders should watch for a breakout above the $2.50/MMBtu level with strong volume to confirm the pattern. Proper risk management and volume analysis are crucial to capitalize on this potential trading opportunity.
PEPPERSTONE:NATGASLong
by Neua0001
Natural Gas Goes Kaboom!Profits have been secured I the Natural gas trade. That being said I still think Nat gas equities can push higher. On the UNG chart we just saw the 20 day MA & 50 Day MA bullishly crossover each other. Last time this happened Nat gas had a 4-5 day parabolic move. The bulls must be careful to not push this commodity up too quickly because it makes the pattern less likely to have a continued breakout. We are still putting in Lower weekly highs, so the next test of the most recent pivot high is going to be crucial. If the bulls can trigger the weekly inverse head and shoulder pattern there's going to be a great long continuation opportunity. Until we break the pivot high & create a higher high traders must use caution now that we've had a large move occur. AR, EQT, CPK, LNG are all set to push higher if Nat gas holds these gains.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital