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NORWEGIAN KRONE / EURO

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NOKEUR trade ideas

EURNOK-could continue a long term declineJust like the EURCAD and EURAUD, i think this pair reached a top and a log term decline is starting. More than that, this pair is extremely overbought, we can see it on monthly chart. The EURCAD and EURAUD are already gone. We can still trade this pair using this setup. Right now price is consolidating forming a nice inverted pennant/flag. My prefered scenario is that price will break to the downside and will reach the projected pennant target. Just in case a place another two targets following my money management system. A conservative entry would be to place sell stop orders below the level shown on chart. This depends on each trader, i prefer to enter now to have a better R/R ratio. Best regards. *****************DISCLAMER******************************************************************** Always do your own analysis before opening a trade. Any respectful and constructive ideas are welcome (agree or disagree). Follow me on Twitter for updates: @fxtrader2000
Short
by FullTimeTrader
1
Nice correction, maybe reversal later, but watch out haDelta!Weekly: - Ichimoku setup is still bullish with lower support around 9,00 and 8,80. - Heikin Ashi shows a correction has started this week. This correction may extend to 9,00 +/- area in coming weeks Daily: - Looks like a trend break. Also looks like a possible bearish reversal is taking place and firming BUT... - ... but Ichimoku setup is still just neutral, with Price in the Kumo. Even if Price makes an initial attempt to break lower, that will be likely followed by a spike back to Kumo. Or the other case is that the momentum starts to slow down a bit here ard 9,10-9,20 area, we see a pull back up to 9,30-9,40 supp/res, then on next try it breaks below 9,15 and tgts 9,00. - Watch out for smoothed haDelta! It has made an extreme low., and it has a negative divergence compared to price. This strong bearish momentum is not sustainable short term. Maybe reduce, hedge some of your counter shorts, or sell short dated (2 weeks) covered puts @ 9,00 or 9,05 strike to pick up some extra premium. I think most likely we will see some consolidation here ard 100 day WMA and Kumo. ether it happens with a dip and spike back, or with a correction up and a break down later is a question, but maybe second scenario has higher probability gvn haDelta location. Anyway, I'd keep some shorts, or would sell on spikes still. So my bias is still counter bearish, but there are some signals to be careful here with the momentum.
by Kumowizard
Norges Bank loves the ccy war! I like counter short.Well, the last central bank who I thought would not lose its mind seems to join global idiotism, thinking that through FX channel their problems will be solved or at least would soften! Hey helloooo Gentlemen! Your ccy has been the weakest among G10 for abt 1,5 years now! Did this relative weakness solve any part of your problem? Nope. So why do they think more FX weakness would help their economy??? The reason why Norway is "sufferring" a bit of backdrop is the structure of their real economy. They have two kind of products: Salmon (maybe less important) and Brent Oil.... so basically they can weaken their ccy to anywhere, if no one will buy Oil and other machinery products used in oil industry (by oil producers, distributors, etc.), there will be no GDP growth, no inflation, etc. So the thing is, they should do intervention in Oil market rather than in FX :-) Anyway... I got stopped out of my EURNOK shorts on the day of rate decision, but somehow I still like Norway. After all it is still AAA rated with no Debt (at least QE can't be an option there later), and they still have their savings in their national oil fund. Technicals Daily: - Bullish trend resumed with heavy buying after rate cut. Ichimoku setup is bullish. Supports are 9,30 and 9,15. - Heikin Ashi picture is still bullish, but after haDelta has just printed an extreme high (and started to pull back lower since then -> momentum slows a bit), a consolidation or correction should soon happen. 4H: - Bullish Ichimoku setup, but Price got too quickly too far above its short term equilibrium, and it is currently still too far above Kijun Sen!!! Kijun and Kumo should attract price back. - Heikin Ashi candles are still green, but watch out for the massive negative divergence in haDelta! Smoothed haDelta is already back to zero, while price has not yet pulled back even a little bit! - I think if we see a reversal candle and Price dips below Tenkan Sen, we can see a quick correction down to 9,45 +/-. SAR already hit: bulls should start to reduce / exit longs. I like to have some counter short again.
Short
by Kumowizard
2
Is the bullish trend close to end?Weekly: - BullishIchimoku setup, but Price got far above the 9,00 equilibrium level, should retest Kumo - Lower supports are: 9,15 (Tenkan Sen), 9,00 (Kumo and Kijun Sen), 8,60-8,70 area as strongest trend support - Heikin Ashi candle this week seems ti print an inside body and no higher high. haDelta crosses below SMA3.Bullish momentum slowed as Price could not close above 9,40-9,50 resistance area for second week. Daily: - Ichimoku setup is bullish, but as 5th Elliot wave might have been completed, so we have to watch 9,20 closely! We have Kjiun Sen and trend support there. If those break now, or later in A-B-C wave, that will be a beginning of a bearish move. - Heikin Ashi signal is bearish. Please note that haDelta/SMA3 failed to move back above zero line, they made a bearish cross below. This suggests more possible bearish bias ahead. - It still may be just a Kijun Sen retest, and Price can go up again, but it will be very important to see if it makes a higher high from here or not. I slowly started to increase my strategic NOK exposure again. No rush, don't chase, play it slowly according to your system reuirements (entry signal, stop, position size) You can also check historical charts for GBPNOK and NOKSEK. Really interesting, and makes me question if NOK really has to be this "cheap" compared to all other G10?
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Possible buy signal at daily Kijun Sen- Ichimoku setup is bullish, Price retested Kijun Sen, which acted bullish support for last two days - Possible Heikin Ashi buy-reversal signal at support - Brent Oil is still under selling pressure - Looking at 4H: 100 WMA acted as strong supp/res. In case Price breaks above 9,00, that will trigger further buying, and Ichimoku setup would turn to bullish again on the lower timeframe too. I enterred long today at 8,9385, with initial tgt 9,20, stop below 8,87
Long
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Mixed a bit, but bullish momentum dropsWeekly: Attention! - Ichimoku setup is bearish, with supports at 8,80+ and 9,00 - Heikin Ashi already signalled loss of momentum last week: inside candle body with no higher high and both candle high and close below the weekly Kijun Sen. We may have further sideaway or a bearish resumption this week, watch if haDelta comes back below zero. Daily: - Ichimoku is rather bullish on the daily, but Price failed to move above 8,80-8,84 resistance. Bullish bias dropped. - Heikin Ashi signal has been mixed fir a while. Price may drift lower towards 8,60 (weekly Tenkan Sen and Daily Kumo). For real bearish reversal 8,60 has to be broken first, but the real long term trend support is ard 8,40-8,45.
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - What to do when momentum disappears?Weekly: - Ichimoku setup is very hard to read still, because the rare spike in dec/2014 made some distorsions of the indicator. I'd say it is kind of neutral, as Price is at the equilibrium measured from datas 26 weeks ago, and Chikou Span hit Price candles. - It's been 6 weeks now since EURNOK tries to break the major uptrend line and the key supp/res zone of 8,32-8,38, but looking at the Heikin Ashi candles we can see the bodies come smaller each after, and there is clearly no decisive lower low (all lower wicks got blocked ard 8,30+). Weekly haDelta is flat. For me this looks like a loss of possible bearish momentum. Daily: - Ichimoku setup is turning to neutral from bearish: Chikou Span hits price candles, Tenkan is almost crosses up Kijun (that would be a weak bullish cross) - Heikin Ashi signal is turning to bullish, we need to see if haDelta/SMA3 can stuck finally above zero line. - The descending triangle is a bit subjective. We can draw it either from the blow off top, in that case it is already broken, but if we look at the less steep one, that is still in play. I had been short for long time, but now I just feel EURNOK completely lost its bearish momentum, it's just moving sideaway, which is annoying a bit. So I decided to cut most of my short. It may be a good sell higher, or lower if finally breaks 8,32, but here and now it is neutral.
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Make it or break it. Hesitation at the crossroadsWell, this week or the next we should see the fate of NOK. Actually I think this week Norges Bank will determine the fate of their ccy. EURNOK got very close to a major inflection point. A make it or break it time is ahead of the pair. Weekly: - Price has reached a multiple support/resistance zone: bullish trendline, Kumo, 100 WMA, and horizontal key supp/res area is below the Price. Chikou Span hits past candles. This is a very strong resistance now, so if by any reason Price breaks it finally, the selling will be dramatic. - Heikin Ashi candles: last week candle is interesting as it had a lower wick, but finally an inside body. This means by the end of last week the selling pressure has eased a lot. Therefor haDelta/SMA3 crossed up (still below zero line). This week's candle has very little information so far. Daily: - Price started some wider range consolidation below bearish supports. It is still trading below Kijun Sen after it has tested the 26 days average twice. It looks like in short term the 9,53-9,57 area is a strong support, but 8,35-8,40 is also a strong resistance (not surprsing looking at the weekly chart's crossroads there) - Heikin Ashi signal right now suggests Price will try to dip again a bit, but for a sustainable bearish move it should have a stronger bearish momentum. The thing is simple now. Based on the daily chart setup, it is better risk reward to sell the range top and size shorts up a bit below 8,43, then trail your stops. It is a good strategy unless Norges Bank joins the global CB idiotism and starts to cut base rate, as in that case EURNOK would spike up above 8,55 and 8,61, which would be a bullish reversal for the pair. Please note that 8,61 is also the weekly Tenkan Sen, so that level would trigger a lot of buying. If Norges Bank realises what European bond investors have already started to realise (that is the pricing out of the global long term deflation fears and trades), then they will not be idiot to act behind the curve and they will leave the base rate unchanged.
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Sell again, stay with the trend!Weekly: - Price is reaching an extremely important zone 8,35-8,38. If Price ever breaks below this zone, the long term picture would change to strategic bearish - Ichimoku setup right now is neutral, with bearish bias. Daily: - Ichimoku setup is bearish, all average lines point down, Chikou Span is in open space - Price retested 8,50-8,55 bearish support zone. Given that previously this area acted as strong resistance, now we should assume it will be a strong support. - Heikin Ashi candle on Friday was a doji with haDelta crossing back below its SMA3. That was an early signal about the possible end of the pull back. Today HA cabdle is red, so from now we have to assume a bearish move will continue from here. Increase your short exposure again! I did it already.
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Question of time? Range and tightenning triangleWeekly: - Ichimoku setup is hard to read a bit. All in all it is rather neutral: Price is still above Kumo, but below Kijun and Senkou B (9,00). Chikou Span will hit Price candles within a few weeks. Strategic bearish reversal could take place only below 8,45. - Heikin Ashi candle pattern shows a pull back (correction) for the last five weeks. Watch this week's candle if it can close above Tenkan Sen or gives any sign of bearish reversal. Daily: - Ichimoku setup is neutral. Price, Tenkan and Kijun are all in the Kumo, and all stay at same level, which means Price is at equilibrium. - Heikin Ashi candles yesterday and today signal a pause in the mini bullish momentum or maybe even a possible reversal to bearish soon. Price is not just stuck around the averages, but also within a tightenning triangle. If the triangle and the Kumo breaks on the lower side at 8,60, then we will see an attack of the 8,55 resistance. Below that space would be open to 8,45. 4H: - Ichimoku setup is turning to bearish from neutral. - Heikin Ashi signal is bearish. Supp/res levels are 8,65 / 8,60 / 8,55
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Update / Reached lower resistance againWeekly: - Ichimoku setup is neutral/weak bearish - Heikin Ashi candle turns red again, weekly haDelta/SMA3 crosses down. We should see bigger candle body and on back of that haDelta to go deeper below zero line for more bearish action - 8,35-8,45 weekly support zone is in focus now Daily: - Slowly drifed lower after the spike to Kumo. Ichimoku setup is about to turn stronger bearish: possible strong bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross is forming, Chikou Span may give a strong bearish cross below past candles as well. For more bearish acceleration Price should finally break the 8,53-8,57 resistance zone - Heikin Ashi setup suggests more bearish action ahead: candles are red with no upper wicks, haDelta/SMA3 has a chance to make a bearish cross again below zero line, which would be a stronger confirmation. The key lvl in short term is 8,53! If it breaks, it will drop quickly, if it holds, we see more sideaway consolidation in 8,55 - 8,75 range.
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Norges Bank kicks Bulls' balls todayRate cut, rate cut, rate cut, rate cut everywhere! This is the new monetary policy phenomenon, the ultimate perpetum mobile! In fact since 2008 there was one rate cut by every third trading day!!! Central Banks lost their mind, heating ccy war further... except one! It looks like Norges Banks is the only one left, thinking that rapeing the financial mkts may be useless and more dangerous in the long run. Maybe they are the only one, who see there is NO DEFLATION RISK in reality. I hope they will keep this prudent long term view, and will not join this stupid global experiment of how to blow the biggest bubble ever in history. Not much to add to this chart. It looked really scary for 3-4 days, as everybody thought Norges will follow the idiot neighbour Riksbank in agressive rate cut. Eventually EURNOK and USDNOK bulls are kicked badly. The pair is down 3 % today. Time to watch 8,50 +/- support area! Also time to watch Brent Oil, as in case Oil reverses again that will fuel NOK gains further. I keep my strategic short. (some of that was stopped in last few days, I re-opened today after the rate decision)
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - The last one to goNOK is the only G10 ccy which has not yet started to perform against EUR. Why is this ccy so much hated? Due to Oil px action? I doubt, as CAD is performing quite well. I rather think people wait for Norges bank decision. But look at EURSEK! What has happened after Riksbank announced rate cut + QE? Initial spike, then collapse, what's more, it has ended in a multi year trendbreak on the weekly chart. I think the same will happen to NOK. Sooner or later it will start to move south as all the other EUR crosses did.Market forces will finally work, and frankly speaking, what the ECB is doing is so stupid, that none of other CB's action could counter that. Daily: - Still sideaway. price touched range top and possible downtrend line. This was also a Kijun Sen retest. - Heikin Ashi candle today suggest a reversal down again. haDelta/SMA3 cross confirms. - Real bearish acceleration would happen below 8,55, with Chikou Span confirming cross below previous low and below Price candles. 4H: - After last attempt to break below the range bottom the course reversed and actually Price even tried to break above the range top. - Short term Heikin Ashi setup is bearish. DMI is turning bearish as well. - Cross below Kijun and Senkou B level could send it down to 8,55 again. The big question is if and when it can go deeper and start trending finally.
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Hold shorts! Watch range break at 8,55 for continuationDaily: - Ichimoku setup is bearish. Price below Kumo and Kijun Sen. For confirmation we need Price break a bit lower, sending Chikou Span into open space after its bearish break below the past Kumo. - Heikin Ashi has been showing undecision for more than 2 weeks now. Green, red and doji candles changing each after. Today candle is bearish, with haDelta turning down again. We need to see longer body bearish candle and haDelta firm dip below zero line for bearish continuation. - Lower resistance is ard 8,55. A break and close below opens space to minimum 8,4250 (my original bearish tgt), but likely to even lower 4H: - Price is swinging around a thinned Kumo. Range is even more obvious here between 8,55-8,65. We have a medium strong Tenkan/Kijun bearish cross today, and Chikou Span is about to make a strong bearish cross below past Price candles too. (this would be a strong confirmation for more bearish move) - What makes it more likely for bearish continuation is the change in DMI/ADX setup. ADX has been extremely low for some time now, but with today's price action finally the bearish DMI cross has more chance to widen further. - Heikin Ashi setup is obviously more bearish now. For confirmation we should see next candle to close below 8,55. From then on every spike you can add to existing shorts.
Short
by Kumowizard
4
EURNOK - Looks good until 8,40-8,45, hold shortsWeekly: - Short looks good until trades below Kijun Sen and Senkou B - Heiken Ashi supports further bearish move - weekly trend and horizontal support is between 8,40-8,45 Daily: - Bearish Ichimoku setup, Tenkan and Senkou A lines pointing down. - Heiken Ashi turns bearish again with haDelta back below SMA3 and zero line - With next wave down watch Oscillator changing bias to bearish - good chance first resistance ard 8,70 will be cleared in coming days - next resistance (also our short term bearish tgt) is ard 8,45 Things that could support it fundamentally further: more correction in Oil (would be even better together with some USD correction) and more EUR weakness on back of ECB QE spreading to other crosses than only EURUSD. Hold shorts! We'll talk about it again around 8,45.
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - NOK will be the new CHF!!!Norway is AAA rated, they have no debt at all, but they have huge cash reserves in their national funds. The only "problem is" that they are Europe's oil producer country. But its a problem only until Oil starts a correction, or at least stops falling further. Otherwise what is the bigger problem? That Norway's income depends on oil, or if that ECB is ready to blow up the EUR through QE? After SNB released the 1,2000 EURCHF peg, we have a black swan event today. Algos go crazy, mkts are fckd through all kind of CHF crosses. In terms of real economy CEE countries are fckd a bit too with their still existing CHF loans. I think regardless ECB decision, this black swan event may cause further turbulance in risky assets. You have to find some safe haven, and as the USD bull is stretched already a bit, against the EUR I do not see a lot of other opportunites than CAD, or NOK. Technical picture has not changed much since my last post (pls see link below), except a few things: Daily: - Chikou Span is hitting Price candles soon and can easily cross below at some point - yesterday price action suggests there may be some serious strategic EURNOK long position unwinding. That would not be surprising, given the situation in Oil, where we there is an increasing chance for a 15 %+ correction (pls see on the other link below) - Price is already below the level of Senkou Span B (future Kumo bottom line), still needs to clear the 9,00 key supp/resistance 4 Hrs: - Price rejecting Kumo again. In fact it was trading a lot higher today during the crazy one hour after the SNB action, the real candle looks different from the one seen here on Tradingview. The spike top was 9,16, Price quickly bounced back down from there - If Price clears 9,00, Chikou will make a strong bearish cross signal to confirm further price drop. I think if investors start to look for new safe havens, while Oil pops up a bit, EURNOK will collapse as quickly as it was coming up.
Short
by Kumowizard