usdnokUSDNOK closed above its downtrend for the first time since May 2023. It also broke the downtrend channel it had been holding since April. I expect a serious rise after the retest.
NOKUSD trade ideas
USDNOK false breakout leading to breakdown?Intraday Update: The USDNOK slammed back to the 10.90's as the Norges CB kept rates unchanged today. As other central banks (like the BOE just minutes ago cutting rates) this has allowed the USDNOK to break back below 11.00. The 11.1500 is shaping up as key resistance and stops below the 10.9000 should be building.
USDNOK at key resistance today Intraday Update: End of month flows has take the USDNOK back above the 11.00 level, but in order to get above triangle resistance we will need to get past the elections, or perhaps a blowout NFP tomorrow. Bulls should take note of this long term triangle resistance.
Why Nailing the Perfect Entry Won't Make You a Winning TraderWhen I first started trading, I spent an absurd amount of time obsessing over the “perfect entry.” I believed if I could just pinpoint the exact right moment to enter, my trades would take off like clockwork. I’d spot my pattern, line up my indicators, and wait for that split-second trigger. But as my journey evolved, I found that success in trading hinges far more on how you exit than on the entry itself.
Aggressive Entries: Simple and Straightforward
Let’s be clear—there is no “perfect entry,” no mythical timing trick that’ll guarantee success. Aggressive entries, for example, are straightforward: you spot the trigger candle, recognize the pattern, and take action at the close. That’s it. No endless analysis or hesitation, just decisive entry. This type of entry is powerful because it’s intentional, capturing the setup in real time rather than waiting for confirmation that could lead to a delayed entry.
While aggressive entries get you in at an ideal price, focusing on entry alone doesn’t cover the full picture of trade management. Without a plan for managing the trade after entry, you’re just hoping the market follows through—and hope is not a strategy.
Exits Matter More Than the Entry
Successful traders don’t just focus on getting in; they put more thought into getting out. If the goal is to grow and protect capital, then exits are the difference between locking in profit or watching it evaporate. After countless hours in the market, I learned that getting the exit right, or at least having a disciplined exit plan, is what shapes your profit curve.
For example, some traders aim for a certain percentage of profit or wait for the price to hit a key level. Others may use stop-loss strategies to protect gains by trailing the stop along the way. The exit strategy you choose is personal, but having one at all is non-negotiable. Think of it this way: without a solid exit plan, even a perfect entry is likely to unravel at some point.
Practical Tips for Developing a Strong Exit Strategy
Define Your Exit Before You Enter: Every trade should begin with a clearly defined exit plan. Before you even click “buy,” know exactly where you’ll exit for both a win and a loss. Setting realistic profit targets and stop losses not only protects you from over-trading but also keeps you focused on executing your plan.
Set Alerts and Automate: Using tools like TradingView’s alert feature is a lifesaver. Alerts allow you to step away from the charts without stressing over every price movement. Let’s be real—the market can be a hypnotic place, and constantly watching it can lead to impulsive decisions. Set your alerts and detach; you don’t need to be glued to your screen for every tick.
Use Incremental Exits: Instead of going all in or all out, consider taking partial profits at different stages of the move. For instance, you might exit half your position at a certain level and let the rest ride to maximize your gains. This approach allows you to capture profit while giving the remaining position room to potentially yield a larger win.
Review and Refine Your Exits: One of the best ways to improve your exit strategy is to backtest it. Use TradingView’s replay feature to “replay” past market conditions and test out various exit strategies. This is invaluable as it gives you a chance to fine-tune your approach based on actual data, not just theoretical setups.
Create Realistic Expectations: The reality of trading is that the market doesn’t always move according to plan. Stay flexible. Some trades might require a quick exit, while others might reward you for holding on. Don’t be afraid to adapt based on the conditions and price action unfolding in front of you.
Why Traders Fail Without an Exit Plan
For many traders, focusing solely on entries becomes a crutch. They mistakenly believe that if they just find the right entry, the trade will manage itself. But the market is unpredictable. Even the best entry can’t secure a win if the trader doesn’t know how to get out.
The hard truth is, obsessing over entries often masks a lack of strategy or confidence in the bigger picture. I’ve seen traders who hit excellent entries repeatedly, but without disciplined exits, they end up handing their profits back to the market. Don’t let your gains evaporate because you didn’t think about your way out.
Trading Success Is Built on Execution, Not Perfection
In the end, what separates successful traders from the rest isn’t a “perfect entry.” It’s a systematic approach to execution. The best traders don’t need flawless timing—they need consistency, discipline, and a clear plan that includes both entries and exits.
So, next time you’re studying a chart, ask yourself not just “Where would I enter?” but also, “Where and how would I exit?” It’s the exit, not the entry, that ultimately decides how much you keep—or give back—to the market.
So, how do you handle exits? Are you still chasing perfect entries, or have you found a balance? Share your strategy below—your insights might be just what another trader needs.
USDNOK-NEUTRAL SELL 6-hourly chart Heikin AshiThe pair is quiet and narrow ranges. The overall picture looks towards moving south, even though we have positive SMI and stochastic, but a slightly overbought RSI.
Strategy SELL @ 10.6500-10.6950 and take profit below 10.5350 for now. SL based on personal risk appetite.
USD BULLS are back and buying. Buy USDNOK
This Daily Chart of USD NOK shows the turnaround today of more buying of the Greenback across the currency's.
1HR Chart below:
USDNOK Very strong buy signal medium-term.The USDNOK has been consistently giving us excellent signals on this 2-year pattern with the last one (July 10, see chart below) being a buy that hit the 11.0000 Target:
This time the pair is again inside the 2-year Higher Lows Zone, while holding Support 1. The previous High was rejected on Resistance 1, so the Triangle may be transitioning into a Rectangle medium-term.
In any case, this low price is a buy opportunity with our Target being slightly below the Lower Highs trend-line at 10.9500.
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Trade Signal: USDNOK Movement PredictionDirection: Sell
Enter Price: 10.4871
Take Profit: 10.40032667
Stop Loss: 10.61061667
We recommend entering a sell position for the USDNOK currency pair at 10.4871. The target take profit is set at 10.40032667, with a stop loss at 10.61061667.
This forecast is made utilizing the EASY Quantum Ai strategy, which evaluates market conditions based on several critical factors:
1. Technical Analysis: The pair has been showing downward momentum as indicated by the moving averages and RSI data. This downward trend presents an opportunity to capitalize on further declines.
2. Macroeconomic Factors: Recent economic data from the United States shows weaker-than-expected growth, while Norway’s economic fundamentals remain stable, thus exerting downward pressure on USDNOK.
3. Sentiment Analysis: Market sentiment currently favors the Norwegian Krone, and investor confidence in the USD appears to be waning, contributing to the anticipated further decline.
4. Geopolitical Factors: Any potential geopolitical tensions impacting the USD could further intensify the downward movement of the USDNOK currency pair.
Based on these factors, our EASY Quantum Ai strategy strongly suggests a sell position. Always remember to monitor the trade and adjust stop loss and take profit levels as needed to manage risk effectively.
Happy Trading!
USDNOK Could Drop 6% as Central Bank Holds RatesThe Norwegian Central Bank has opted to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.5%, aligning with market expectations. This decision leaves USD/NOK near a key support level around 10.42, close to breaking below a double bottom pattern. This double bottom forms part of a larger descending triangle, which points to a potential downside target of 9.81, a significant 6,000-pip drop for the Norwegian krone.
However, a swift decline to such lows seems unlikely. Instead, more realistic targets are 10.27 and 10.05, with the latter one align with the lows from December 2023. The bearish pattern will be triggered if USD/NOK breaks below 10.42 and will remain valid as long as the pair trades under 10.50.
In the near term, traders should watch the 10.42 level closely for any confirmed break, which could signal further downside pressure on the krone.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
USDNOK-BUY strategy 6-hourly Heikin AshiThe pair is likely going to move higher above the 10.6100 area en-route 10.7400 again.
Strategy BUY current 10.5700-10.5950 and take profit near 10.7150 for now. SL based on personal risk appetite.
USDNOK ShortBearish Probabilities for USD/NOK: 88.89%
📉 Bearish arguments:
- Monthly PCH respected.
- Weekly FVG respected.
- Weekly swing high swept.
- Daily PCL disrespected.
- Daily swing low disrespected.
- Daily bullish FVG disrespected.
- 4H FVG respected.
- 4H swing low disrespected.
- 4H swing high respected.
📈 Only one bullish argument:
- Monthly PCL respected which is our PD Array.
Trade Management: SL is positioned at the start of the Daily FVG, as a break there would signal a clear reversal or consolidation. TP is placed at the SELL STOP level, although if reached, the price may quickly target the DOL point. I will lock in profits at the first target and look for another entry afterward.
Risk: 2%
R/R: 2.06
Nordic Noir: The Mystery of USDNOKEconomic Challenges for Norway
The recent increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) has had a significant impact on financial markets and the global economy. Simultaneously, Norway faces similar economic challenges to Saudi Arabia due to its dependence on oil and its large sovereign wealth fund. The Norwegian economy and the Norwegian krone (NOK) are deeply influenced by these variables on both sides of the Atlantic.
Interest Rates and their Impact on Europe
The Fed and ECB interest rates are higher than Norway's, which has direct implications on where people choose to invest their money, whether in bonds or savings accounts. The higher yields on U.S. or European bonds make them attractive options for those seeking financial security. In comparison, Iceland has maintained significantly higher interest rates than Norway, the Fed and the ECB, which has helped strengthen its currency, the Icelandic króna. However, high interest rates can have negative effects on the economy, as people may choose to save rather than spend.
Impact of the Sovereign Wealth Fund and the Foreign Exchange Market
The Central Bank of Norway continues to sell large amounts of NOK to purchase foreign assets for the Sovereign Wealth Fund in order to diversify its exposure to oil. This process involves the purchase of U.S. dollar assets, which contributes to the depreciation of the NOK by increasing the supply of the Norwegian currency in the foreign exchange market. Oil and gas companies sell oil and gas in US dollars and exchange these USD to NOK to pay taxes in Norway. The central bank, Norges Bank, then exchanges these NOK for foreign currencies such as EUR and USD, and subsequently invests in foreign assets for the sovereign wealth fund.
Effects of Taxes and Oil Prices
The imposition of higher taxes on products such as salmon has reduced investor confidence in the Norwegian economy. This has led even wealthy Norwegians to move their businesses abroad, negatively affecting the local economy and the NOK. The lack of diversification in exports, which are mainly focused on seafood, petroleum and some paper and wood products, increases economic vulnerability.
Oil and gas prices, which are in U.S. dollars, also influence the Norwegian economy. For example, in order for Germany to buy gas from Norway, it must sell euros to acquire dollars, which leads Norway to sell dollars to obtain NOK. This foreign exchange deficit in NOK contributes to the depreciation of the currency.
Problems with the Norwegian krone
The Norwegian krone faces default deflation problems and a high correlation to oil prices. If oil prices continue to fall, the Norwegian krone will be negatively affected. The Fed's high interest rate and persistently low oil prices could contribute to a further depreciation of the krone. In addition, Norway does not have a wide variety of exports, which limits its economic options.
In 2022, Norway was the world's 24th largest economy in terms of GDP (current US $), 28th in total exports and 41st in total imports. It is notable for having the 3rd highest GDP per capita and being the 43rd most complex economy according to the Economic Complexity Index (ECI). Its main exports include petroleum gas, crude oil and unfilled fresh fish, with Germany, the UK and France as the main destinations. In terms of imports, Norway focuses on cars, refined petroleum and transmission equipment, importing mainly from Sweden, Germany and China.
In July 2024, Norway exported NOK 144 MM and imported NOK 84.8 MM, resulting in a positive trade balance of NOK 59.3 MM. Exports grew by 8.14% compared to the previous year, while imports increased by 17.9%. The main exports were petroleum and petroleum products, natural gas, fish and non-ferrous metals, while imports included road vehicles, electrical machinery and petroleum products. The main export destinations were the United Kingdom, Germany and the Netherlands, and the main import sources were China, Germany and Sweden.
The depreciation of the krone has increased the cost of living in Norway, as 99% of the products sold in stores are imported. For example, a McDonald's hamburger in Norway can cost 74 kroner, while in the United States it costs USD 6. This situation reflects the loss of purchasing power of the krona and a monetary policy strategy that is not adequately managing deflation.
Norway has the largest public sector in the world. Since 2000, public spending has increased by 270%, while cumulative inflation has been 70%. This high public spending must be financed through taxes.
Conclusion
The combination of higher interest rates in Europe and volatility in oil prices presents a complex outlook for markets and economies. In Europe, prudence and vigilance remain key, while Norway must address its currency devaluation and dependence on oil to ensure long-term economic stability.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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USDNOKOn the monthly charts we have a confirmed bearish trend with a bullish correction in play.
On the weekly charts we have a shift in order flow confirming our bearish bias though its a long term view. We have an impulsive bearish move that has necessitated a bullish correction to clear previous disequilibrium.
The break in daily structure confirms shift in order flow from bullish to bearish. Presently we are bearish, in consonance with our monthly and weekly view.
$USDNOK Analysis - Harmonic Patterns and OutlookFX_IDC:USDNOK
The USDNOK pair continues to demonstrate remarkable complexity with multiple harmonic patterns. Let's review the previous analyses and see how the latest setup fits into the overall picture.
📉 Current Analysis:
As of September 12, USDNOK is trading with intraday support at 10.765. A drop below this level might indicate a significant decline, with a potential new bullish shark pattern emerging at 10.675, aligning with the target zone of the previous pattern seen at 10.876.
📊 Context of Previous Patterns:
Recent patterns include a bullish alt-bat formation on August 28, leading to a resistance level at 10.737, with further upward movement towards 10.861. On September 11, the pair reached the 224% Fibonacci extension at 10.876, forming a bearish shark pattern that suggests possible downside moves with retracement targets below 10.677. Monitoring the support level at 10.765 will be crucial for assessing the next potential moves.
Happy Trading,
André Cardoso
Trading Signal: USD/NOK MovementAttention Traders,
Our latest analysis using the EASY Quantum Ai strategy indicates a selling opportunity for the USD/NOK currency pair.
Direction: Sell
Enter Price: 10.8384
Take Profit: 10.78341333
Stop Loss: 10.87778333
Reason for the Signal:
1. Technical Analysis: Our proprietary algorithm, EASY Quantum Ai, identifies a bearish pattern forming on the USD/NOK charts. Key indicators such as moving averages and momentum oscillators are signaling a downward trend.
2. Economic Data: Recent economic reports from the US show signs of slowing growth, which typically weakens the USD against other currencies. Simultaneously, Norway's economy remains steady, boosting the NOK.
3. Market Sentiment: There is an observable shift in investor sentiment favoring the NOK. This is evidenced by increased trading volume in NOK-related assets and a general optimism around Norway's economic stability.
Trading Plan:
- Entry Point: Initiate the sell order at 10.8384.
- Take Profit: Close your position at 10.78341333 to secure gains.
- Stop Loss: Set your stop loss at 10.87778333 to limit potential losses.
Stay sharp and manage your risk appropriately.
Best of luck and trade wisely,
The EASY Quantum Ai Team
USDNOK Is Still Eyeing June LowsUSDNOK is sideways for the last two years that looks like a triangle within uptrend. It's an ABCDE pattern where wave E can be in play, ideally still to the lower side of a range for subwave (C) after the recent subwave (B) rally. Notice that we see price turning sharply and impulsively from the upper triangle resistance line as expected, so wave (C) is in full progress which can push the price down to 10.30 - 10.00 support zone before we will see stabilization and recovery.
USDNOK is not at the June lows yet, so we believe it's still in wave 4 correction before a continuation lower for wave 5 towards 10.30 – 10.00 zone. Ideal resistance is at 10.60 – 10.70 area.
USD/NOK 1-Hour Long Signal Based on SMA/EMA Crossover and Bull BDescription
In this idea, I want to highlight a potential long trading opportunity on the IBKR:USDNOK 1-hour chart, identified through a combination of technical indicators and thorough market analysis.
1-Hour Chart Analysis:
A signal was generated as the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossed under the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), triggering a long entry condition. This crossover, highlighted by the yellow background on the chart, marks a potential shift in market momentum, signaling a possible bullish move.
The strategy also incorporated the Bull Bear Power indicator to confirm this signal. The indicator showed that the bear power has weakened, falling below a predefined threshold of 0.00140, which further supports the idea of a potential upward move.
Additionally, the strategy includes an ATR-based stop-loss and take-profit calculation, providing clear risk management levels for the trade. The stop-loss is set using a 1.2 ATR multiplier, while the take-profit is calculated with an 8.0 ATR multiplier, both rounded to the nearest value ending in 0 or 5 for precision.
Daily Chart Analysis:
Looking at the daily chart, we can observe that the previous day's candle left a significant shadow, indicating possible rejection of lower prices and potential buying pressure. The MACD histogram on the daily chart shows early signs of upward momentum, suggesting that the market might be gearing up for a bullish move.
Moreover, the price is currently hovering around a key Fibonacci retracement level, adding another layer of support to the bullish scenario.
Trade Details:
Entry Price: 10.5439
Stop Loss: 10.46065
Take Profit: 10.6218
USDNOK-SELL strategy 2-hourly chart Heikin AshiThe pair is under pressure and I suspect we may see low 10.50s again. It is not very oversold as yet, and daily AO is negative, and so is the 2-hourly.
Strategy SELL @ 10.6500-10.7000 and take profit @ 10.5350 for now. SL based on your risk appetite.
Norges CB keeps rates unchanged Intraday Update: The Norges central bank kept rates unchanged and as most other central banks are cutting, they may keep rates at current levels in the coming meetings which may support the NOK near term. The USDNOK is approaching some very critical daily triangle support at 10.60 and 10.35.
USDNOK nearing major triangle supportIntraday Update: FX_IDC:USDNOK has broken lower to test the 78% retracement, and below here will be long term triangle support near the 10.50's. Keep in mind the Norges CB meets on interest rates in less than 24hrs which could allow for a major test/break of this technical level.
