NOKUSD trade ideas
USDNOK Can Fall Hard If Neckline Is BrokenUSD came down last week as sentiment changed when ECB raised rates by 75bp, so it appears that the USD will now give some moves back as other CB trying to follow the FED. We have also seen some rally on crud, as demand can increase as we approach the winter. Higher crude oil will have a positive impact on some commodity currencies, like NOK, CAD and even MXN, especially during the USD weakness. As such, we have decided to look at the USDNOK today as this one can have the most downside potential.
On a daily chart we can see that price came nicely higher last year, but recovery from 2021 low is overlapping which normally means it's a corrective price action. We see this as a higher degree pause in wave B that can be coming to an end after recent turn down from Fibo. cluster resistance area. The divergence line on the RSI also suggests that bulls can be done, especially if we consider the Head & Shoulders top formation. However, a trendline near 9.6 must be broken to confirm lower prices into the third wave of a decline.
USD/NOK End of trend. Second attempt.Turtle soup pattern.
Just stopped out of first attempt.
Ready for another SL on this attempt.
Will fire again, with failure on upper trendline.
Any break above upper trendline.
should be a parabolic trust up, so plan is to go long if that scenario occurs.
Risk: 1% SL above daily candle with some wiggle room.
TP target: 8.6
USD/NOK End of trend.Price hacve hit a trendline and showing signs of exhaustion.
10.00 is also a major area for USDNOK, only been above this level once according to my memory ( covid crasy )
I expect price to come down and test the lower parallell trendline projection and with that confirming a channel.
Rate decision on thrusday 23 of june, and price likes to move before the decision and accelerate after the news.
Hiding stops above recent daily high just in cause my analysis is dead wrong.